Could Trump's plan fail in a spectacular fashion?

[Cameroni]

2 hours ago, ronnie50 said:

Wanna 'bet'?

 

I very much do. What cards do you think you hold ronnie?

[rough diamond]

46 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

So, to be clear, disagreement with one's leaders and independent thinking are not the traits of a true American...?

So, to be clear, disagreement with one's leaders and independent thinking are not allowed by the traits of a true Trump brainwashed supporting American...?

[Cameroni]

3 hours ago, IsaanT said:

I am well-versed in stock markets and stock market history.  The markets are long overdue a correction.  This time, the 'correction' will be deeper and longer than anyone might imagine.  You don't know me from Adam, but my advice would be to get out while you can.  I won't be offended if you don't but you will remember my words for a very long time.

As a single indication of what I believe, Morgan Stanley recently stated that the S&P500 could drop to 5,500 by the summer and then recover to 6,500 by the end of the year.  Well, it went as low as 5,528 yesterday.  Let's see where it is at the end of this month, let alone summer....

 

It's hardly a secret that the market is in the largest bubble in history and was due for a correction. So far it is only dropped 12% from the recent all time high. in the 2008 crash it shed 65%. We have gone up OVER 100% since that time, which is incredible. If the market is down 4 trillion, what about the 50 trillion it's gone straight up since 2009?

 

The market goes down, sure. It will go up again. Don't worry.  If it crashes now, don't get out, buy like crazy at the bottom. You will make a fortune.

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

It's hardly a secret that the market is in the largest bubble in history and was due for a correction. So far it is only dropped 12% from the recent all time high. in the 2008 crash it shed 65%. We have gone up OVER 100% since that time, which is incredible. If the market is down 4 trillion, what about the 50 trillion it's gone straight up since 2009?

 

The market goes down, sure. It will go up again. Don't worry.  If it crashes now, don't get out, buy like crazy at the bottom. You will make a fortune.

It's no secret? Funny, the same party who claimed that if you put 10 different economist together you get 12 opinions, is now claiming that it was hardly a secret that the market is due for a correction. Was that the consensus of stock market analysts? Obviously, what you're up to is trying to deflect blame from fear of Trump's policies should the market crash. 

[Yagoda]

1 hour ago, IsaanT said:

So, to be clear, disagreement with one's leaders and independent thinking are not the traits of a true American...?

Disagreement with facts are fine, independent thinking is welcome.

 

Hate is not. Thats not a patriotic American. Your bro DESPISES his fellow citizens.

[Yagoda]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Thanks. @Yagoda is one of the most consistently hateful, disrespectful, and toxic members of this forum. He rarely ever writes anything with any real content, like you do, and it is mostly just vitriol aimed at what he perceives to be enemies of his side of the aisle.

 

A non-partisan discussion with him is simply not possible, he doesn't have the mind for it. There are a few members like that on this forum and it's best if we simply ignore them and continue and intelligent discourse. 

Here is some hatred and toxicity for you:

 

Joe Biden left the border wide open. Trump closed it.

 

Bet you wouldnt say  its good.

 

How about the Laken Reilly Act?

 

Facts are so brutal for America haters.

[Yagoda]

1 hour ago, transam said:

twisting stuff is your trait...

And then.....

 

1 hour ago, transam said:

"He should give up his citizenship", says a bloke hanging out in a commy country

Y'all can see what I said LOL.

 

I didnt know Cambodia was "commy" (sic).

 

Just following me around yapping stupid lying comments directed at me and not issues. What a stalker.

[IsaanT]

31 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

It's hardly a secret that the market is in the largest bubble in history and was due for a correction.

Let me be clearer.  It won't be a correction - it will be a global recession.  This one will make 1929 look like a blip.

As the average age of members on this forum is quite high, I sincerely hope you are still around to buy at the bottom, when it occurs.  The bottom will be at least 16 years away.
 

[rough diamond]

3 hours ago, ronnie50 said:

Now Trump hits Australia. Another "poke' in one of the 'five eyes'. Canada didn't blink. Instead it dropped its gloves and laughed in the face of the aggressor like every Canadian hockey player does. Aus should do the same - or at least teach Trump what real tackle football is like - without 100 pounds of padding on a fat guy. 

Britain must develop a 'Four Eyes' intelligence sharing alliance in response to Donald Trump's actions over Ukraine, defence sources have said.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14477803/Britain-urged-form-breakaway-Four-Eyes-alliance-without-US-Trumps-unprecedented-decision-block-intelligence-sharing-Ukraine.html

 

PS; I agree that the Daily Mail is not the most reliable source but it shows it is being discussed.

[Cameroni]

6 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

Let me be clearer.  It won't be a correction - it will be a global recession.  This one will make 1929 look like a blip.

As the average age of members on this forum is quite high, I sincerely hope you are still around to buy at the bottom, when it occurs.  The bottom will be at least 16 years away.
 

Ah, the Cassandra analysis. Well, I would be willing to put a wager that should there be a recession it will not last 16 years.

[rough diamond]

13 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Disagreement with facts are fine, independent thinking is welcome.

Then why don't you practice that methodology here for a change?

All you do is insult people you disagree with, or refer to internal US so called Trump triumphs.

[IsaanT]

7 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Ah, the Cassandra analysis. Well, I would be willing to put a wager that should there be a recession it will not last 16 years.

I've never come across a Cassandra analysis, but I did have a colleague called Cassandra once.  She wasn't into the markets though...

Keep your money: you appear to be still bullish - you're going to need it.
 

[Cameroni]

9 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

I've never come across a Cassandra analysis, but I did have a colleague called Cassandra once.  She wasn't into the markets though...

Keep your money: you appear to be still bullish - you're going to need it.
 

 

Four hours ago JP Morgan estimated the risk of recession in 2025 as less than 50%. They still predicted respectable growth.

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/jp-morgan-economist-sees-40-us-recession-chance-risks-exorbitant-privilege-2025-03-12/

 

Look, the Cassandra analysis has been ongoing for the last 40 years. At some point it will come true, no doubt, but we're not at that place yet.

[IsaanT]

3 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Four hours ago JP Morgan estimated the risk of recession in 2025 as less than 50%. They still predicted respectable growth.

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/jp-morgan-economist-sees-40-us-recession-chance-risks-exorbitant-privilege-2025-03-12/

 

Look, the Cassandra analysis has been ongoing for the last 40 years. At some point it will come true, no doubt, but we're not at that place yet.

I respect your opinion, even if we disagree.

However, we live in very febrile times so I just hope you're like Berkshire Hathaway and have turned a lot of your positions into a cash pile so you're not dragged down when the plug is pulled on the markets.
 

[Cameroni]

10 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

I respect your opinion, even if we disagree.

However, we live in very febrile times so I just hope you're like Berkshire Hathaway and have turned a lot of your positions into a cash pile so you're not dragged down when the plug is pulled on the markets.
 

 

Well, I think we have seen a large bubble and you are right that there will be difficult times ahead. My horse is Forex trading, so I make money if the dollar goes up or if it goes down. A nice trend actually helps. Whatever the direction.

[Yagoda]

33 minutes ago, rough diamond said:

Then why don't you practice that methodology here for a change?

All you do is insult people you disagree with, or refer to internal US so called Trump triumphs.

Why do you use the word "so called". Hes doing what we elected him to do.

 

Im mad at him for not pulling us out of the UN

[Patong2021]

34 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

Let me be clearer.  It won't be a correction - it will be a global recession.  This one will make 1929 look like a blip.

As the average age of members on this forum is quite high, I sincerely hope you are still around to buy at the bottom, when it occurs.  The bottom will be at least 16 years away.
 

 

Worthy of a separate thread.  I believe that you make a valid point. It will be rejected  by some because it is a position that illuminates the chaos that Trump is causing. The self appointed market experts who's expertise consist of day trading will weigh in with regurgitations of Trump Truth Social posts.  We'll soon see the crypto bros popping up to tell us that crypto is our salvation.

 

And this leads into a palpable concern that I have. This just doesn't seem right. Trump was the one who forced a renegotiation of the USMCA and now he rejects that agreement. I doubt Trump could have done all this damage alone. I have a growing suspicion that there is a group who are pushing the  confrontations and trade wars with everyone because their is a profit opportunity in it for them.  There is no benefit  to the USA to see its economy disrupted and alliances  destroyed.

 

Musk is part of the South African Paypal  "mafia" that has a history that would shock  alot of people. His grandfather was a neonazi who advocated the creation of a technocracy with the no democracy, just an authoritarian rule decided upon the elites. The other South Africans who made their money in paypal have similar upbringings and are mixed up in politics too. This is playing out like a James Bond film.

 

 

 

[spidermike007]

4 hours ago, IsaanT said:

I have news for you @Yagoda, @Cameroni and anyone else who thinks the US stock market movements are just a small correction.

I am well-versed in stock markets and stock market history.  The markets are long overdue a correction.  This time, the 'correction' will be deeper and longer than anyone might imagine.  You don't know me from Adam, but my advice would be to get out while you can.  I won't be offended if you don't but you will remember my words for a very long time.

As a single indication of what I believe, Morgan Stanley recently stated that the S&P500 could drop to 5,500 by the summer and then recover to 6,500 by the end of the year.  Well, it went as low as 5,528 yesterday.  Let's see where it is at the end of this month, let alone summer....

You are absolutely correct and it's a long time in coming. There's so much helium in the balloon and if the market does does not correct then we're due for a major depression. A correction will be a healthy thing for the economy, and it will act as a reset. I do believe that there is the potential for a rather large correction when you take into account factors that were already in existence, and then you combine them with the exacerbating factors of Trump's destructive policies, the reset could be as much as 15,000 points or more from where we are now. DOW down to 26,000?

 

We will call it the Trump recession. 

[Cameroni]

4 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Worthy of a separate thread.  I believe that you make a valid point. It will be rejected  by some because it is a position that illuminates the chaos that Trump is causing. The self appointed market experts who's expertise consist of day trading will weigh in with regurgitations of Trump Truth Social posts.  We'll soon see the crypto bros popping up to tell us that crypto is our salvation.

 

And this leads into a palpable concern that I have. This just doesn't seem right. Trump was the one who forced a renegotiation of the USMCA and now he rejects that agreement. I doubt Trump could have done all this damage alone. I have a growing suspicion that there is a group who are pushing the  confrontations and trade wars with everyone because their is a profit opportunity in it for them.  There is no benefit  to the USA to see its economy disrupted and alliances  destroyed.

 

Musk is part of the South African Paypal  "mafia" that has a history that would shock  alot of people. His grandfather was a neonazi who advocated the creation of a technocracy with the no democracy, just an authoritarian rule decided upon the elites. The other South Africans who made their money in paypal have similar upbringings and are mixed up in politics too. This is playing out like a James Bond film.

 

 

 

 

Trump is not causing any chaos. The correction was overdue and everyone knew it.

 

As for a 16 year recession, the chances of that are nil.

[IsaanT]

5 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Worthy of a separate thread.  I believe that you make a valid point. It will be rejected  by some because it is a position that illuminates the chaos that Trump is causing. The self appointed market experts who's expertise consist of day trading will weigh in with regurgitations of Trump Truth Social posts.  We'll soon see the crypto bros popping up to tell us that crypto is our salvation.

 

And this leads into a palpable concern that I have. This just doesn't seem right. Trump was the one who forced a renegotiation of the USMCA and now he rejects that agreement. I doubt Trump could have done all this damage alone. I have a growing suspicion that there is a group who are pushing the  confrontations and trade wars with everyone because their is a profit opportunity in it for them.  There is no benefit  to the USA to see its economy disrupted and alliances  destroyed.

 

Musk is part of the South African Paypal  "mafia" that has a history that would shock  alot of people. His grandfather was a neonazi who advocated the creation of a technocracy with the no democracy, just an authoritarian rule decided upon the elites. The other South Africans who made their money in paypal have similar upbringings and are mixed up in politics too. This is playing out like a James Bond film.

 

 

 

I'm not sure there's enough material for a separate thread because I'd be the first to suggest that it's all speculation at this point, however derived.  Time will tell.

As to your point about Trump not having the ability to have done all this damage himself, I remember there was the QAnon movement back in his first term, and now there's talk of his association with Project 2025, which calls for more authoritarian rule, apparently.  Some allege that he's the 'useful idiot' frontman for the whole show.  Perhaps that's the case.

Whilst all the rest is interesting, my prime objective is to protect my family's future and to comfortably survive what is about to come round the corner.  If I can at least make people think twice about their own positions, it would be a bonus.
 

[Lacessit]

IMO it is failing already. Most of the countries hit with across the board tariffs have responded in kind.

 

When you have a country like Canada actually taking American products off supermarket shelves, that's not a blip. It's a major shift in attitude.

[bannork]

Trump's frequent outrageous demands that Canada become a U.S. state is recognition that the two economies are deeply integrated.

Indeed, approx 66% of US primary aluminium and 60 %of scrap aluminium comes from Canada.

US steel producers have a hard enough time as it is competing against lower-cost producers in China and Turkey, God knows how they'll compete with these tariffs added.

 To quote the board of the WSJ, ''We said from the beginning that this North American trade war is the dumbest in history, and we were being kind." 

'Makes no sense': Conservative WSJ slams Trump's 'splendid little tariff war' with Canada

 

[IsaanT]

12 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

You are absolutely correct and it's a long time in coming. There's so much helium in the balloon and if the market does does not correct then we're due for a major depression. A correction will be a healthy thing for the economy, and it will act as a reset. I do believe that there is the potential for a rather large correction when you take into account factors that were already in existence, and then you combine them with the exacerbating factors of Trump's destructive policies, the reset could be as much as 15,000 points or more from where we are now. DOW down to 26,000?

 

We will call it the Trump recession. 

1. If I am correct and it does last a minimum of 16 years, that won't be regarded as healthy.

2. The Dow will fall much more than 15,000 points.

3.  I think everyone will have Trump's name on it.

[ronnie50]

2 hours ago, bannork said:

 

 November 30, 2018, Trump signs the very FTA he now criticises.

You couldn't make this stuff up.

Why Trump Blames Himself for Current “Unfair” U.S.-Canada-Mexico Trade Agreement - LA Progressive

Yes, it's almost a headline for The Onion, isn't it?

 

"Trump slaps tariff on himself for signing 'unfair' US-Canada-Mexico Trade Agreement"

 

(Washington, D.C.) United States' President Donlad Trump today imposed a 25 percent tariff on himself for signing the 2018 US-Canada-Mexico Trade Agreement. "It's a wonderful thing. Tariffs. I can't get enough of them," Trump said. "By introducing a 25 percent tariff on myself, I'm showing Canada and Mexico they can't beat me," he added. "America first!" The annual cost in dollars to Trump's self-imposed tariff amounts to $1 billion, according to the White House. A spokeswoman added Presidential advisor Elon Musk was expected to cover the costs, but would defer payments due to poor revenues from his SpaceX and Tesla sales.

 

[gamb00ler]

On 3/11/2025 at 11:25 AM, Jingthing said:

He doesn't have a plan.

In the Trump world a plan is just a scheme by the leftist's to achieve world domination.

[IsaanT]

Going back to the original premise of the thread 'Could Trump's plan fail in a spectacular fashion':

- it does seem counter-intuitive to pick trade fights with so many of your overseas trading partners (Canada, Mexico, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, etc.)
- it is bewildering that Trump fails to recognise that imposing tariffs on the imported products that his citizens buy will make them more expensive
- it is concerning that he states that he will get the strategically-significant Greenland 'one way or another', and Canada as the 51st state
- it is also concerning that he feels he can acquire control of the Panama canal again
- my greatest concern - if the above wasn't enough - is that he has been having convivial conversations with Putin, a despot and war criminal, which Trump hopes will lead to future cooperation between the two countries and Russia's return to the G7.  I don't think that was on the manifesto that the US public voted for.

Trump's cabinet appointments were 'interesting'.  Basically, inexperienced and unfit 'yes men' (and women).

Will the plan fail in a spectacular fashion.  Of course!   Common sense ultimately prevails - how could it not?

[rough diamond]

54 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Hes doing what we elected him to do.

To ruin the world order, fail the stock markets and make the US disparaged by everyone but his puppet masters.

[ronnie50]

49 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

- it is bewildering that Trump fails to recognise that imposing tariffs on the imported products that his citizens buy will make them more expensive

Trump's cabinet appointments were 'interesting'.  Basically, inexperienced and unfit 'yes men' (and women).
 

His companies have filed for bankruptcy six times, so no, he doesn't understand the economics of his actions on the electorate (and probably wouldn't care, even if explained to him using simple words).

 

The fact he's a loud-mouthed loser, who thinks he's the smartest guy in the room, and surrounds himself with those equally incompetent - well.. writing is on the wall. Thing that worries me more is if China or Russia, who of course fully realize this, decide now's their chance to make major moves..

[Yagoda]

45 minutes ago, rough diamond said:

To ruin the world order, fail the stock markets and make the US disparaged by everyone but his puppet masters.

Who are his puppet masters? The Iluminati? Jews? Lizard People?

[rough diamond]

19 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Who are his puppet masters? The Iluminati? Jews? Lizard People?

You should know as you spout forth all your trumpeter feeds to you to post here.