Could Trump's plan fail in a spectacular fashion?

[Cameroni]

3 hours ago, Presnock said:

Well, a recission in the making. 

 

Not at all. JP Morgan just issued GROWTH forecasts for the US economy and said the risk of a recession is less than 50 percent.

[The Old Bull]

What the media is missing is that Trump threatens tariffs to get feedback before enforcing them.  If too many complain he will back off ,if he has lots of support he will continue. The good thing is he has no loyalty to his supporters so will go with the flow of public opinion. He will throw Musk under the bus in an instant if it will bring him some benefit.

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45 minutes ago, VincentRJ said:

Thanks for the information. I wasn't aware that a major reason for Denmark's high electricity prices is due to its high taxation on the electricity. It seems that Denmark is one of the lucky countries with ideal locations and wind conditions that are suitable for wind turbines.

 

"Denmark experiences relatively strong and consistent winds, particularly along its coastline, which is ideal for wind turbine placement. 
With over 7,000 kilometers of coastline, Denmark has ample space for both onshore and offshore wind farms." 

 

Also, I wasn't aware that Denmark's initial subsidies for wind power, including capital grants, were progressively reduced and eventually repealed in 1988 as reliability and cost-effectiveness improved.

 

However, it seems this is about to change, according to the following news item.

 

"COPENHAGEN, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Denmark will halt all ongoing offshore wind tenders as the existing framework where no subsidies are offered does not work under current market conditions, its energy minister said on Friday.
The global offshore wind industry has been hit by surging costs, rising interest rates and supply chain bottlenecks. Denmark said in December that its latest tender for wind at sea had failed to attract any bids."

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/denmark-halt-offshore-wind-tenders-revamp-subsidy-model-2025-01-31/
 

That's true. Why use wind power when solar is more cost effective?

Denmark’s solar capacity surpasses 4 GW
Denmark installed 545 MW of solar in 2024, with utility-scale projects driving market growth, according to Danish solar association Dansk Solcelleforening.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/01/20/denmarks-solar-capacity-surpasses-4-gw/

[IsaanT]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

Not at all. JP Morgan just issued GROWTH forecasts for the US economy and said the risk of a recession is less than 50 percent.

There is no point challenging this statement at this time because it's all conjecture and there are some very entrenched arguments on both sides (it's personal fortunes and future happiness at stake - I get it).

However, I reserve the right to come back and remind you of some of these statements in the near future.

It is worth pausing and wondering why Berkshire Hathaway has created a $334Bn cash pile recently.  Warren Buffett is 94 and knows what happens when the markets get too exuberant for too long.  Most people in JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, etc., are either too young to have that wisdom or are too bullish because that's what brings in the customers - my money is on the latter (as is theirs).
 

[spidermike007]

The Republican Party is all too often effective at campaigning and winning elections, but there’s another fact about it that a lot of Americans forget: The Republican Party flat out sucks at governing. Even Tucker Carlson agrees with this. For all the huffing and puffing on the campaign trail in 2016, the first Trump administration largely amounted to tax cuts for the wealthy, 500 miles of a border wall and a destructive pandemic gone viral. George W. Bush got us into a harebrained war in Iraq and then tried to privatize Social Security while letting our financial system drive smack into the Great Recession. And George H.W. Bush governed his way into a one-term presidency because of the economy.

 

For round two in office, instead of prioritizing the problems he campaigned on — public safety, immigration and the border, and most of all the economy — President Trump is hellbent on

dismantling the federal government and crashing the economy. To accomplish this, he has put his faith in the most incompetent cabinet in modern history: a health and human services secretary who is already targeting federal vaccination efforts and dumped a bear carcass in Central Park as a fun prank at age 60; a director of national intelligence who was devoted to an allegedly abusive yoga-centered cult; a former WWE tycoon turned head of Department of Education; and a former cable news talking head as defense secretary. Which will result in one clear thing: disorder.

 

There will probably be more enormous tax cuts for the wealthy and Medicaid cuts hitting a lot of other people, but there is nothing the American public despises more than disorder and a broken economy.

 

 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Not at all. JP Morgan just issued GROWTH forecasts for the US economy and said the risk of a recession is less than 50 percent.

Why am I not surprised that you didn't link to the article or offer any quotes from it?

 

"There is about a 40% chance of a U.S. recession this year and a risk of lasting damage to the country's standing as an investment destination if the administration undermines trust in U.S. governance, according to J.P. Morgan's chief economist.

"Where we stand now is with a heightened concern about the U.S. economy," Bruce Kasman, the U.S. investment bank's chief global economist, told reporters in Singapore on Wednesday.

He said he has not yet revised any forecasts, but put a roughly 40% recession risk into the outlook - up from about a 30% chance he had reckoned on at the start of the year. 

https://archive.ph/scF4z#selection-1343.32-1359.174

 

Spinning much?

[IsaanT]

Project 2025
 

Project 2025, also known as the 2025 Presidential Transition Project, is an initiative led by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, aiming to reshape the U.S. federal government by consolidating executive power to implement right-wing policies. Published in April 2023, the project's comprehensive plan proposes replacing thousands of federal civil servants with political appointees aligned with conservative ideologies. It also advocates for restructuring or abolishing certain federal agencies to align government functions more closely with conservative principles.

 

Critics have expressed concerns that Project 2025 promotes an authoritarian approach to governance. They argue that its emphasis on the unitary executive theory—which posits that the president should have direct control over the entire executive branch—could undermine the rule of law, the separation of powers, and civil liberties. Some have characterized the project as a pathway toward autocracy infused with Christian nationalist ideals.

 

The initiative was designed to influence the policies of a potential Republican administration, particularly if Trump were re-elected in 2024. While the Heritage Foundation coordinated the project with input from numerous conservative groups and individuals, including those aligned with Trump, the former president publicly distanced himself from Project 2025 in 2024, labeling parts of it as "seriously extreme" and claiming unfamiliarity with its origins. Despite this, many contributors to the project were closely associated with Trump's circle, and the project itself mentioned Trump over 300 times, indicating a significant overlap between the project's proposals and Trump's policy agenda.

 

The Heritage Foundation employed numerous individuals closely aligned with Trump, and the project was coordinated with various conservative groups led by Trump's allies.

Project 2025 aims to reshape the U.S. federal government to align with conservative values and increase presidential power. Its main goals include:

• Centralizing Executive Authority: Strengthening presidential control over federal agencies, limiting their independence, and making it easier to replace career civil servants with political appointees.
• Government Restructuring: Eliminating or drastically reforming agencies viewed as obstacles to conservative policy goals, like the Department of Education or the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
• Social and Cultural Policy Shift: Promoting policies rooted in Christian nationalist ideals, including restrictions on abortion, rolling back LGBTQ+ rights, and reinforcing traditional family values.
• Deregulation and Economic Policy: Cutting back environmental and workplace regulations, reducing government intervention in markets, and emphasizing energy independence through fossil fuels.
• Immigration and National Security: Tougher immigration enforcement, stricter border controls, and a more aggressive approach to national security threats.

The overarching vision is a more streamlined, ideologically driven government that amplifies the executive branch’s power — a model that critics argue leans toward authoritarianism.

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Was this in the Republican party's manifesto?  Trump has openly expressed admiration of other authoritarian leaders, and thus Project 2025 appears to be prophetic.

 

[IsaanT]

Project 2025 - actions to date

 

Several actions taken by President Trump during his second term reflect the objectives outlined in Project 2025, particularly concerning the enforcement of binary gender definitions. Notable measures include:

1. Executive Order on Gender Definitions: On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed the executive order "Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government." This order mandates federal recognition of only two immutable genders—male and female—determined at conception. It requires all federal agencies to adopt these definitions, replace "gender" with "sex" in official materials, and cease funding or promoting concepts related to gender ideology.

2. Transgender Military Ban: On January 27, 2025, an executive order was issued prohibiting transgender individuals from serving in the military. The administration argued that being transgender conflicts with the disciplined lifestyle required for military service.

3. Elimination of the Department of Education: Aligning with Project 2025's goal to restructure federal agencies, President Trump initiated steps to dismantle the Department of Education. This includes significant staff reductions and discussions about abolishing programs not mandated by law.

4. Federal Funding Restrictions: The administration has suspended federal funding to institutions perceived as violating new policies on gender identity. For example, the University of Maine faced funding cuts despite reporting no transgender athletes, reflecting a strict enforcement approach.

 

[Cameroni]

37 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

There is no point challenging this statement at this time because it's all conjecture and there are some very entrenched arguments on both sides (it's personal fortunes and future happiness at stake - I get it).

However, I reserve the right to come back and remind you of some of these statements in the near future.

It is worth pausing and wondering why Berkshire Hathaway has created a $334Bn cash pile recently.  Warren Buffett is 94 and knows what happens when the markets get too exuberant for too long.  Most people in JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, etc., are either too young to have that wisdom or are too bullish because that's what brings in the customers - my money is on the latter (as is theirs).
 

 

"Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities," Buffett reassured Berkshire shareholders in his annual letter in February, referring to both the stocks and businesses that his company owns.

 

 

Buffett is a long-term investor who's owned stocks such as Coca-Cola and American Express for decades. It's unlikely he pared his portfolio because he saw trouble coming and wanted to cash out before the next market crash — and he probably won't care much about a few months of stock performance.

 

He's publicly soured on banks and pointed to higher bond yields and the prospect of steeper taxes on capital gains as two reasons he was happy to take some Apple profits and buy Treasurys instead. He's also explained his growing cash pile reflects a dearth of bargains with both private and public companies trading at heady valuations.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-memes-stock-market-crash-cash-pile-apple-quotes-2025-3

 

So actually Buffet cashed out to buy Treasurys because the stock market is doing so well! There were too few bargains for his style of investment.

[gamb00ler]

2 hours ago, The Old Bull said:

What the media is missing is that Trump threatens tariffs to get feedback before enforcing them.  If too many complain he will back off ,if he has lots of support he will continue. The good thing is he has no loyalty to his supporters so will go with the flow of public opinion. He will throw Musk under the bus in an instant if it will bring him some benefit.

that may work for a little bit.... in the end, he'll never be known as a great leader

[spidermike007]

26 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

that may work for a little bit.... in the end, he'll never be known as a great leader

He will very likely be known as the 46th worst president in the history of the United States. 

[Cameroni]

4 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

He will very likely be known as the 46th worst president in the history of the United States. 

 

No, he will be known as the greatest president the United States ever had.

 

Only a few months in and Ukraine war ceasfire in sight, corruption and bloated government tackled, the man is what this world needs now.