Wall Street plummets ,trillions lost

[Hawaiian]

21 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Ben Shapiro has turned anti-Trump

 

 

"some times you have to take the medicine"?  This is not medicine, it's poison.

[Mavideol]

On 4/4/2025 at 12:30 PM, StayinThailand2much said:

Tell me about it; I'm 30% down... Hoping for a recovery till late 2026.

don't worry toomut 555 Navarro said the Wall Street will reach 50,000 this year  555

[IsaanT]

For perspective...



This the Dow Futures.  Each bar is one month.  The chart goes back to 2005 on the left-hand side; the last bar is this month, April 2025.

In case the penny hasn't dropped, it's the 7th day of this current month, so we're only one week in - another 23 days to go.

Now, a quiz.  @Cameroni, @Yagoda, @Harrisfan: what does the stochastic indicator underneath the chart tell you?  @Yagoda, you are allowed to consult with your 'stocks dude' before replying.
 

[Harrisfan]

2 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

For perspective...



This the Dow Futures.  Each bar is one month.  The chart goes back to 2005 on the left-hand side; the last bar is this month, April 2025.

In case the penny hasn't dropped, it's the 7th day of this current month, so we're only one week in - another 23 days to go.

Now, a quiz.  @Cameroni, @Yagoda, @Harrisfan: what does the stochastic indicator underneath the chart tell you?  @Yagoda, you are allowed to consult with your 'stocks dude' before replying.
 

Similar to covid low but that was a 1 wave pattern. I except a bounce this week maybe wednesday then another fall

[gamb00ler]

And the US $ (DXY) has dropped from 110 around inauguration to 102.5 today.... more Trump inspired winning!

 

DXY had climbed from election day, but the actual reality of Trump quickly became a yuuuge disappointment.  Nobody has ever seen anything like it.

[IsaanT]

7 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

I expect a bounce this week... then another fall

Are we in agreement for once? 😉

[Harrisfan]

Just now, IsaanT said:

Are we in agreement for once? 😉

Yeah but we could both be wrong. The market is always right and we are merely guessing.

[IsaanT]

3 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Yeah but we could both be wrong. The market is always right and we are merely guessing.

The market is, indeed, always right.

However, my 'guesses' are specifc, and made before the event.  And I haven't been proved wrong yet whereas your accuracy prediction score is suffering a deficit recently.
 

[Harrisfan]

Just now, IsaanT said:

The market is, indeed, always right.

However, my 'guesses' are specifc, and made before the event.  And I haven't been proved wrong yet.
 

100% strike rate? Wow

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

The market is, indeed, always right.

However, my 'guesses' are specifc, and made before the event.  And I haven't been proved wrong yet whereas your accuracy prediction score is suffering a deficit recently.
 

Paul Samuelson, the Nobel Memorial Prize Winner for Economics, once remarked that the market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.

 

[beautifulthailand99]

The Black Swans are coming....

[placeholder]

Just now, beautifulthailand99 said:

The Black Swans are coming....

The thing about black swans is that they are rare and unforeseen by most. I don't think that's the case here.

[3NUMBAS]

ASEAN markets plummeting on monday

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c934qzd094wo

[3NUMBAS]

Asian stock markets have plummeted as the shockwaves from US President Donald Trump's tariffs continue to reverberate around the world.

Major indexes from Shanghai to Tokyo and Sydney to Hong Kong plunged on Monday. "It's a bloodbath," one analyst told the BBC.

As a region that manufactures so many of the goods sold globally, Asian countries and territories are being hit directly by the tariffs. 

They are also particularly sensitive to the impact of fears that a global trade war could trigger a slowdown or even a recession in the world's biggest economy.

Japan's Nikkei 225 benchmark index closed down by 7.8%, the ASX 200 in Australia lost 4.2% and the Kospi in South Korea ended 5.6% lower.

Slumps in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan were exacerbated as investors caught up with the big falls seen in other markets on Friday as they were closed for public holidays.

The Shanghai Composite closed 7.3% lower and Taiwan Weighted Index lost

[Yagoda]

57 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

For perspective...



This the Dow Futures.  Each bar is one month.  The chart goes back to 2005 on the left-hand side; the last bar is this month, April 2025.

In case the penny hasn't dropped, it's the 7th day of this current month, so we're only one week in - another 23 days to go.

Now, a quiz.  @Cameroni, @Yagoda, @Harrisfan: what does the stochastic indicator underneath the chart tell you?  @Yagoda, you are allowed to consult with your 'stocks dude' before replying.
 

If my stock dude wasn't so conservative, it would tell me to buy. 

[Harrisfan]

1 minute ago, Yagoda said:

If my stock dude wasn't so conservative, it would tell me to buy. 

Google Darvas box theory

[Yagoda]

21 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Google Darvas box theory

I know I wish I had a bit more control but I'm always a gambler. There's some folks going to be making some big money off of this

[IsaanT]

26 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

If my stock dude wasn't so conservative, it would tell me to buy. 

OK, let's look at the evidence.
 

A stochastics indicator is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to show where the current closing price of a stock is relative to its price range over a specific period.

 

In short, it tells you if a stock is overbought or oversold.

 

Here's a breakdown:

• It oscillates between 0 and 100.
• High readings (typically above 70 or 80) suggest the stock might be overbought and could be due for a pullback or consolidation
• Low readings (typically below 20 or 30) suggest the stock might be oversold and could be due for a bounce

Traders often use stochastics to identify potential turning points in a stock's price action and to look for divergences (where the indicator moves in the opposite direction of the price), which can signal a weakening trend.  I like divergences very much - see the chart below for the divergence at the end of November's bar (arrowed); similar divergences can be seen across the chart prior to drops.  It works for rises, too.

However, when there is a strong trend, the trend will override most indicators.  In a strong down market, it will bump along the bottom (or, conversely, the top in a strong up market, as can be seen in the chart).
 

On the monthly scale, it hasn't even reached the bottom yet so, if the trend is going to continue it's got plenty of scope to go yet.  The evidence has been there all along if you look in the right places.

 

p.s. I don't use the default Stochastic parameters.  I use %K of 13, %D of 2, a slowing factor of 2 and I use overbought/oversold of 90 and 10, respectively, as shown on this chart.

 

[beautifulthailand99]

30 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

If my stock dude wasn't so conservative, it would tell me to buy. 

MAGA bill incoming !!

[Harrisfan]

10 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

OK, let's look at the evidence.
 

A stochastics indicator is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to show where the current closing price of a stock is relative to its price range over a specific period.

 

In short, it tells you if a stock is overbought or oversold.

 

Here's a breakdown:

• It oscillates between 0 and 100.
• High readings (typically above 70 or 80) suggest the stock might be overbought and could be due for a pullback or consolidation
• Low readings (typically below 20 or 30) suggest the stock might be oversold and could be due for a bounce

Traders often use stochastics to identify potential turning points in a stock's price action and to look for divergences (where the indicator moves in the opposite direction of the price), which can signal a weakening trend.  I like divergences very much - see the chart below for the divergence at the end of November's bar (arrowed); similar divergences can be seen across the chart prior to drops.  It works for rises, too.

However, when there is a strong trend, the trend will override most indicators.  In a strong down market, it will bump along the bottom (or, conversely, the top in a strong up market, as can be seen in the chart).
 

On the monthly scale, it hasn't even reached the bottom yet so, if the trend is going to continue it's got plenty of scope to go yet.  The evidence has been there all along if you look in the right places.

 

p.s. I don't use the default Stochastic parameters.  I use %K of 13, %D of 2, a slowing factor of 2 and I use overbought/oversold of 90 and 10, respectively, as shown on this chart.

 

But often it goes down 50 to 70% then reverses as your chart shows.

[IsaanT]

7 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

I know I wish I had a bit more control but I'm always a gambler. There's some folks going to be making some big money off of this

I appreciate your openness.

Statistically, most retail traders will lose money (IG Index states 71% do on its own website, and they would know).  I'm assuming you're trading (gambling - your words) with money you can afford to lose, as any trader should.

I'm trying to provide some enlightenment here for those who can't see what I see.  I hope that nobody here loses any money (or can contain any losses before it gets out of control).
 

[IsaanT]

9 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

But often it goes down 50 to 70% then reverses as your chart shows.

Yes, in an up market trend.

Now apply the same logic to a down market trend.  What would it look like?

Do remember that trends, once started, persist for some time.  And trends and corrections are two completely different things, i.e. you can have a correction in an ongoing uptrend, and vice versa.  It could be argued (please don't) that we've been in an bullish uptrend, with corrections, since at least 2009.
 

[Harrisfan]

1 minute ago, IsaanT said:

Yes, in an up market trend.

Now apply the same logic to a down market trend.  What would it look like?

Do remember that trends, once started, persist for some time.  And trends and corrections are two completely different things, i.e. you can have a correction in an ongoing uptrend.
 

Draw up a Darvas box and see what happens. 

[IsaanT]

14 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Draw up a Darvas box and see what happens. 

Darvas box theory is not something I use (I hadn't even heard of it until you mentioned it) and I see no point investigating a potential new tool for my box when I have several tried and trusted methods already available to me.  The evidence is on the screen above.

If it works for you, that's good.

p.s. I just googled DBT.  If the stop is at the bottom/top of the box, that's way too wide to make any serious money.  The theory is understandable but the chance of making consistent money with it...  Well, tell us how you're doing with it.
 

[spidermike007]

It will be quite interesting to see how the markets react today, and to see if there is a major buy-in, or if people just leave their cash on the sidelines. I am betting on the latter. 

 

Trump would not be where he is without the deep state or a similarly sinister organization or group of very powerful people who put him in that place, and are allowing him to conduct these extremely destructive economic policies. As reckless and as poorly thought out as all this seems, I think it's actually deliberate economic sabotage.

 

Unfortunately the average American and the average person without wealth throughout the world will end up being the victims. Tens of millions of Trump supporters will be very surprised at the end result, and it won't be a pleasant surprise. 

 

Very few people truly understand just how sinister both Trump and Musk are. 

 

 

 

 

[Harrisfan]

8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

It will be quite interesting to see how the markets react today, and to see if there is a major buy-in, or if people just leave their cash on the sidelines. I am betting on the latter. 

 

Trump would not be where he is without the deep state or a similarly sinister organization or group of very powerful people who put him in that place, and are allowing him to conduct these extremely destructive economic policies. As reckless and as poorly thought out as all this seems, I think it's actually deliberate economic sabotage.

 

Unfortunately the average American and the average person without wealth throughout the world will end up being the victims. Tens of millions of Trump supporters will be very surprised at the end result, and it won't be a pleasant surprise. 

 

Very few people truly understand just how sinister both Trump and Musk are. 

 

 

 

 

You write the same crap daily.

[Harrisfan]

10 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

Darvas box theory is not something I use (I hadn't even heard of it until you mentioned it) and I see no point investigating a potential new tool for my box when I have several tried and trusted methods already available to me.  The evidence is on the screen above.

If it works for you, that's good.

p.s. I just googled DBT.  If the stop is at the bottom/top of the box, that's way too wide to make any serious money.  The theory is understandable but the chance of making consistent money with it...  Well, tell us how you're doing with it.
 

He was a margin trader. Trade moves that bounced off the top of the box.

[beautifulthailand99]

Jim Cramer has said don't panic - you all know what that means.

[beautifulthailand99]

what would be historic fair value for the dow jones without QE as a % of it's current value
ChatGPT said:

That’s a super interesting (and big!) question — trying to strip out the effects of Quantitative Easing (QE) from the Dow Jones to estimate a kind of "organic" or "historic fair value" is tricky, but we can reason through it.
TL;DR:

Estimates vary widely, but some analysts argue the Dow could be 30–50% lower without QE, putting a rough "historic fair value" at 50–70% of its current level. So if the Dow is around 39,000 (as of early 2025), its QE-free fair value might be in the range of 19,500 to 27,300.

 

I'll buy in at half price -  went very long physical  gold at the start of the Ukraine war on the basis that peer proxy wars by nuclear superpowers are very bad news indeed and let's take Trump's Main Street not Wall Street at face value then he will let stocks slide and what goes bust goes bust rather than a liquidity QE stick save.

[steven100]

for all you novices out there ....   you should buy LOW and sell HIGH ....  like I do !   I just made a killing $$$$