Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
President Donald Trump’s volatile trade war, which threatens higher inflation, has significantly weighed on Americans’ moods these past few months. 

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg/Getty Images

WashingtonCNN — 

Americans are rarely this pessimistic about the economy.

Consumer sentiment plunged 11% this month to a preliminary reading of 50.8, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday, the second-lowest reading on records going back to 1952. April’s reading was lower than anything seen during the Great Recession.

President Donald Trump’s volatile trade war, which threatens higher inflation, has significantly weighed on Americans’ moods these past few months. That malaise worsened leading up to Trump’s announcement last week of sweeping tariffs, according to the survey.

 

“This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation,” Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, said in a release.

The Federal Reserve and Wall Street are watching closely how souring sentiment translates into consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, and whether Americans lose faith that inflation will return to normal in the coming years.

Trump on Wednesday paused his massive tariff hike on dozens of countries for 90 days, but kept in place a 10% baseline duty for all imports into the US and separate tariffs on specific products and commodities. The so-called reciprocal tariffs, albeit short lived, were the sharpest increase in US duties ever on data going back 200 years, Fitch Ratings told CNN

 
 

China, however, wasn’t included in Trump’s tariff reprieve, continuing a contentious tit-for-tat between the world’s two largest economies that stretched into Friday, with Beijing jacking up its retaliatory tariffs on US imports to 125% from 84%.

The Michigan survey was fielded between March 25 and April 8, so it doesn’t capture respondents’ reaction to the recently announced tariff delay.

The relationship between sentiment and spending

In economics, surveys are referred to as “soft data” and measures capturing actual economic activity, such as retail sales, are known as “hard data.”

The soft data has clearly deteriorated because of Trump’s tariffs: The latest Michigan survey showed that “the share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009,” according to a release.

Yet, the hard data still looks decent. Employers continue to hire at a brisk pace and shoppers haven’t convincingly reined in their spending just yet, though retail sales have come in weaker than expected recently.

“Sometimes the surveys are very negative, but they keep spending,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week at an event near Washington, DC. “People spent right through the pandemic and they spent right through this time of higher inflation.”

Spending by better-off Americans has played a key role in keeping the US economy humming along these past few years, but the recent turbulence on Wall Street, triggered by Trump’s tariffs, is putting that under threat.

“Wealthy consumers’ stock market gains kept the economy growing in 2024 despite high prices, but the wealthy won’t feel confident enough to keep spending if this keeps up,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote in a recent analyst note.

Posted

Judge allows requirement that everyone in the US illegally must register to move forward

 

Does every illegal Republican criminal have to register too or are they grandfathered in? 😀

Posted

Trump signs order to 'make America's showers great again'

 

It's all part of Trump's grand strategy to bring down the price of eggs.

 

Once the chickens start taking those long, luxurious Trump showers, they're going to be popping out those eggs in no time.

 

Strawberries! 😄

 

F4WIN3yWkAA0URS.png

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...