Donald's fury and it's limitations.

[Cameroni]

18 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Really, not true. Certainly not at all during the Oblama administration despite what alarmists were predicting.

And by the way, inflation is not a bad thing in itself. If it were, that would mean deflation is a good thing. It what the Chinese economy is now experience a bit of and what afflicted America during the Great Depression, In fact, while people credit WW2 with stimulating the economy

And Trump's tariffs will obviously boost inflation. In fact, if you look at countries that have imposed a system of high tariffs, inflation is a besetting ill.

 

I don't know if this is true ignorance or outright malicious lies, but of course it was under Obama that the Fed truly started it's massive quantative easing policy.

 

As academic research has proven, quantitative easing increases inflation. So very true, and especiallly true under Obama.

 

Indeed some inflation is healthy and acceptable, however, clearly it has become a major problem due to the Fed printing money, buying assets it shouldn't and keeping interest rates too low for too long.

 

Yes, China is experiencing deflation and it is worse than inflation clearly.

 

Trump's tariffs will not boost inflation. In the long term as manufacturing returns to the US and goods become more expensive due to being made in the US inflation will naturally decrease.

[Cameroni]

21 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If it were just penicillin that might be a good point. But there's a myriad of thing the US doesn't produce that add up to a lot more than a "bit".

 

There will be the odd product where it will be very difficult to produce it in the US, even impossible perhaps, however, you have to weigh that up against the US regaining its economic souvereignty in being able to produce its own medicines, steel, aluminium etc. Overall, becoming more self sufficient will be a huge plus for the US.

[marin]

2 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

here will be the odd product where it will be very difficult to produce it in the US, even impossible perhaps, however, you have to weigh that up against the US regaining its economic souvereignty in being able to produce its own medicines, steel, aluminium etc. Overall, becoming more self sufficient will be a huge plus for the US.

How many years have you lived and paid taxes in the USA?

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

You are mistaking outsourching to save costs for lack of capacity. An easy mistake to make. However, the US pharma industry can easily make penicillin. They have just outsourced it to China because it is cheaper.

 

This of course illustrates why Trump is right and a shift has to happen.

 

 

I agree a shift has to happen, and been stating that myself, once or 20+ times, and in theory, tariffs should force manufacturing back to the USA.

 

But enough to be independent before mid term, simply isn't going to happen, and if CN got pissed off and stopped essential exports to USA, then USA would be screwed.

 

Look what happen to the auto parts supply chain during covid.  Lucky most cowered & complied and didn't really need, but new production of autos sure did slow down, along with waiting for new parts to repair & maintain their POS.

 

How much stock of antibodies do you think is warehoused, and would last how long ?

 

For USA's sake, would love to see an intense trade war, as would force the USA to once again manufacture things in country, and be independent of exports.

 

But that's not going happen, unless Reps keep Congress at mid terns, which probably isn't going to happen.   Along with Vance having to win in '28' & '32'.

 

No major shift will happen in 4 yrs, let alone <2 yrs now.  If economy takes a nosedive, which it will, then Reps will lose Congress at mid term elections.   Then deep state is back in control.

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

I don't know if this is true ignorance or outright malicious lies, but of course it was under Obama that the Fed truly started it's massive quantative easing policy.

 

As academic research has proven, quantitative easing increases inflation. So very true, and especiallly true under Obama.

 

Indeed some inflation is healthy and acceptable, however, clearly it has become a major problem due to the Fed printing money, buying assets it shouldn't and keeping interest rates too low for too long.

 

Yes, China is experiencing deflation and it is worse than inflation clearly.

 

Trump's tariffs will not boost inflation. In the long term as manufacturing returns to the US and goods become more expensive due to being made in the US inflation will naturally decrease.

The Famous Open Letter to Ben Bernanke (2010)

In November 2010, a group of economists, academics, and financial professionals sent an open letter to Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, warning against the Fed’s plan to implement QE2 (the second round of quantitative easing).

🔮 Their Main Predictions:

1. Inflation Surge: QE would “risk currency debasement and inflation.”

2. Rising Interest Rates: QE would lead to a collapse of confidence in the Fed’s ability to manage the economy, driving up long-term interest rates.

3. Loss of Dollar Confidence: The policy would undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar and possibly its reserve currency status.

4. No Real Economic Benefit: QE would not meaningfully improve employment or stimulate real economic growth.

---

✅ What Actually Happened:

1. Inflation Stayed Low (Until Long After QE)

• From 2010 through the late 2010s, core inflation remained below the Fed’s 2% target, often hovering around 1.5%.

• The hyperinflation some predicted never materialized. If anything, the Fed struggled to raise inflation to healthy levels.

• Inflation only surged after massive pandemic-related stimulus in 2021–2022, not directly due to QE alone.

2. Interest Rates Stayed Low

• Contrary to predictions, long-term interest rates fell, not rose. Investors continued to buy U.S. Treasuries, signaling confidence rather than fear.

• QE helped lower borrowing costs, which was its intended effect.

3. The Dollar Remained Dominant

• The U.S. dollar remained the world’s reserve currency and actually strengthened in certain years.

• Global investors continued to see U.S. assets as safe and desirable, even as the Fed expanded its balance sheet.

4. Economic Growth and Job Recovery Did Occur

• While the recovery from the Great Recession was slower than ideal, QE helped stabilize financial markets, restore credit flows, and support asset prices.

• The U.S. saw gradual declines in unemployment, from over 9% in 2010 to below 5% by 2016.

• Without QE, the recession might have been deeper and longer-lasting.

---

🧠 Why Did the Predictions Fail?

• Critics assumed a mechanical relationship between money supply and inflation (e.g., Monetarist views like MV = PQ), ignoring the liquidity trap context of the post-crisis economy.

• Much of the QE money didn’t circulate in the real economy, but stayed in bank reserves or inflated asset prices.

• The economy had slack capacity—high unemployment and low demand—which muted inflationary pressures.

[Cameroni]

4 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

 

I agree a shift has to happen, and been stating that myself, once or 20+ times, and in theory, tariffs should force manufacturing back to the USA.

 

But enough to be independent before mid term, simply isn't going to happen, and if CN got pissed off and stopped essential exports to USA, then USA would be screwed.

 

Look what happen to the auto parts supply chain during covid.  Lucky most cowered & complied and didn't really need, but new production of autos sure did slow down, along with waiting for new parts to repair & maintain their POS.

 

How much stock of antibodies do you think is warehoused, and would last how long ?

 

For USA's sake, would love to see an intense trade war, as would force the USA to once again manufacture things in country, and be independent of exports.

 

But that's not going happen, unless Reps keep Congress at mid terns, which probably isn't going to happen.   Along with Vance having to win in '28' & '32'.

 

No major shift will happen in 4 yrs, let alone <2 yrs now.  If economy takes a nosedive, which it will, then Reps will lose Congress at mid term elections.   Then deep state is back in control.

 

We are already in an intense trade war, however, I also have my doubts on whether Trump will see it through. My fear is that Trump will negotiate with China and then concede too much, just to avoid some mid-term pain fot the US economy. Whenever China has negotiated with the US before it has usually bested the US negotiators. 

 

Your analysis of the US domestic political situation is as good as any, but there are too many variables, it is a bit like predicting the stock market. A lot can change still. Still, in the short term a lot of people will not like the effect of Trump's tariffs, which will indeed make things more expensive. Trump needs to explain to the American people that it is a price worth paying for economic souvereignty and future growth, but it is a hard sell.

 

Whether JD Vance will win or not, who knows, he is a golden orator. One thing is for sure, if he does win, he will be significantly more extreme than Trump. 

 

As for antibodies it appears the US has enough for decades, certainly years. There should be no issue.

 

The supply chain currently, btw, looking at all indicators is exceptionally healthy and at pre-covid levels. Obviously since cars are made up of so many different parts from so many different countries, covid's travel restrictions had a dire impact, but travel restrictions are not in place now to the same extent.

[Cameroni]

16 minutes ago, placeholder said:

The Famous Open Letter to Ben Bernanke (2010)

In November 2010, a group of economists, academics, and financial professionals sent an open letter to Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, warning against the Fed’s plan to implement QE2 (the second round of quantitative easing).

🔮 Their Main Predictions:

1. Inflation Surge: QE would “risk currency debasement and inflation.”

2. Rising Interest Rates: QE would lead to a collapse of confidence in the Fed’s ability to manage the economy, driving up long-term interest rates.

3. Loss of Dollar Confidence: The policy would undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar and possibly its reserve currency status.

4. No Real Economic Benefit: QE would not meaningfully improve employment or stimulate real economic growth.

---

✅ What Actually Happened:

1. Inflation Stayed Low (Until Long After QE)

• From 2010 through the late 2010s, core inflation remained below the Fed’s 2% target, often hovering around 1.5%.

• The hyperinflation some predicted never materialized. If anything, the Fed struggled to raise inflation to healthy levels.

• Inflation only surged after massive pandemic-related stimulus in 2021–2022, not directly due to QE alone.

2. Interest Rates Stayed Low

• Contrary to predictions, long-term interest rates fell, not rose. Investors continued to buy U.S. Treasuries, signaling confidence rather than fear.

• QE helped lower borrowing costs, which was its intended effect.

3. The Dollar Remained Dominant

• The U.S. dollar remained the world’s reserve currency and actually strengthened in certain years.

• Global investors continued to see U.S. assets as safe and desirable, even as the Fed expanded its balance sheet.

4. Economic Growth and Job Recovery Did Occur

• While the recovery from the Great Recession was slower than ideal, QE helped stabilize financial markets, restore credit flows, and support asset prices.

• The U.S. saw gradual declines in unemployment, from over 9% in 2010 to below 5% by 2016.

• Without QE, the recession might have been deeper and longer-lasting.

---

🧠 Why Did the Predictions Fail?

• Critics assumed a mechanical relationship between money supply and inflation (e.g., Monetarist views like MV = PQ), ignoring the liquidity trap context of the post-crisis economy.

• Much of the QE money didn’t circulate in the real economy, but stayed in bank reserves or inflated asset prices.

• The economy had slack capacity—high unemployment and low demand—which muted inflationary pressures.

 

indeed it has taken time to understand the true effects of Quantitative Easing, whilst it was always assumed that it would increase inflation, this has now been confirmed by academic research. The only thing is that there is indeed not a "mechanical relationship" between QE and inflation, it can take time for the effects to appear. Like with any disease.

 

However, Obama inherited very low inflation 0.1%, and in his first year, when QE started, it was  2.7% and then 3% in 2011.

 

it stands to reason that printing money and QE will increase inflation, and indeed they have. 

 

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

 

indeed it has taken time to understand the true effects of Quantitative Easing, whilst it was always assumed that it would increase inflation, this has now been confirmed by academic research. The only thing is that there is indeed not a "mechanical relationship" between QE and inflation, it can take time for the effects to appear. Like with any disease.

 

However, Obama inherited very low inflation 0.1%, and in his first year, when QE started, it was  2.7% and then 3% in 2011.

 

it stands to reason that printing money and QE will increase inflation, and indeed they have. 

 

 

You can repeat this nonsense all you like but during the Obama years there was no evidence of QE causing inflation. A few years later a lot of the signatories defended themselves by claiming that they didn't claim that there would be inflationary consequences, but only that there could have been.

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

We are already in an intense trade war, however, I also have my doubts on whether Trump will see it through. My fear is that Trump will negotiate with China and then concede too much, just to avoid some mid-term pain fot the US economy. Whenever China has negotiated with the US before it has usually bested the US negotiators.

 

What happened to winning winning winning?

[impulse]

26 minutes ago, placeholder said:

The Famous Open Letter to Ben Bernanke (2010)

In November 2010, a group of economists, academics, and financial professionals sent an open letter to Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, warning against the Fed’s plan to implement QE2 (the second round of quantitative easing).

🔮 Their Main Predictions:

1. Inflation Surge: QE would “risk currency debasement and inflation.”

2. Rising Interest Rates: QE would lead to a collapse of confidence in the Fed’s ability to manage the economy, driving up long-term interest rates.

3. Loss of Dollar Confidence: The policy would undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar and possibly its reserve currency status.

4. No Real Economic Benefit: QE would not meaningfully improve employment or stimulate real economic growth.

---

✅ What Actually Happened:

1. Inflation Stayed Low (Until Long After QE)

• From 2010 through the late 2010s, core inflation remained below the Fed’s 2% target, often hovering around 1.5%.

• The hyperinflation some predicted never materialized. If anything, the Fed struggled to raise inflation to healthy levels.

• Inflation only surged after massive pandemic-related stimulus in 2021–2022, not directly due to QE alone.

2. Interest Rates Stayed Low

• Contrary to predictions, long-term interest rates fell, not rose. Investors continued to buy U.S. Treasuries, signaling confidence rather than fear.

• QE helped lower borrowing costs, which was its intended effect.

3. The Dollar Remained Dominant

• The U.S. dollar remained the world’s reserve currency and actually strengthened in certain years.

• Global investors continued to see U.S. assets as safe and desirable, even as the Fed expanded its balance sheet.

4. Economic Growth and Job Recovery Did Occur

• While the recovery from the Great Recession was slower than ideal, QE helped stabilize financial markets, restore credit flows, and support asset prices.

• The U.S. saw gradual declines in unemployment, from over 9% in 2010 to below 5% by 2016.

• Without QE, the recession might have been deeper and longer-lasting.

---

🧠 Why Did the Predictions Fail?

• Critics assumed a mechanical relationship between money supply and inflation (e.g., Monetarist views like MV = PQ), ignoring the liquidity trap context of the post-crisis economy.

• Much of the QE money didn’t circulate in the real economy, but stayed in bank reserves or inflated asset prices.

• The economy had slack capacity—high unemployment and low demand—which muted inflationary pressures.

 

Closer to today...  Team Biden dumped a few $trillion on the Inflation Assurance Act and look how that worked out.

[save the frogs]

11 hours ago, Cameroni said:

However, if you consider that Americans are 4% of the population and consume 18% of the planet, perhaps making things more expensive in the US will be a good thing for the planet.

 

Maybe that's what the conspiracy is.

To lower the spending power of the average american because they're already consuming most of the planet's resources.

But no one will willingly go along with this because no one cares about the planet.

So they chose "an arrogant unhinged madman" to do the dirty work since no one likes him anyway.

And then they will blame Trump for everything and have him knocked off. 

 

[KhunLA]

22 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

We are already in an intense trade war, however, I also have my doubts on whether Trump will see it through. My fear is that Trump will negotiate with China and then concede too much, just to avoid some mid-term pain fot the US economy. Whenever China has negotiated with the US before it has usually bested the US negotiators. 

 

Your analysis of the US domestic political situation is as good as any, but there are too many variables, it is a bit like predicting the stock market. A lot can change still. Still, in the short term a lot of people will not like the effect of Trump's tariffs, which will indeed make things more expensive. Trump needs to explain to the American people that it is a price worth paying for economic souvereignty and future growth, but it is a hard sell.

 

Whether JD Vance will win or not, who knows, he is a golden orator. One thing is for sure, if he does win, he will be significantly more extreme than Trump. 

 

As for antibodies it appears the US has enough for decades, certainly years. There should be no issue.

 

The supply chain currently, btw, looking at all indicators is exceptionally healthy and at pre-covid levels. Obviously since cars are made up of so many different parts from so many different countries, covid's travel restrictions had a dire impact, but travel restrictions are not in place now to the same extent.

That's the 'art of the deal', any deal.   Ask for a loaf of bread, but settle on a half loaf.  No different than when I was  Union rep.

 

That's why the tariffs were put on hold.  Everyone gets time to think & negotiate, or threaten and rattle the sabers.   Until it's go time.

 

Then we'll all see how it pans out in a month or 2.  Don't think there is any surprises here.  

 

Not many, if any, country or more importantly, politician, can afford a halt in trading, or high tariffs, if not producing in country.   Which the USA does not.

 

Or if your country can't feed or energize itself.  

 

USA will end up with better trade deals under Trump, than before 2025 started.

[Cameroni]

2 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

That's why the tariffs were put on hold.  Everyone gets time to think & negotiate, or threaten and rattle the sabers.   Until it's go time.

 

Then we'll all see how it pans out in a month or 2.  Don't think there is any surprises here.  

 

Indeed, China's economic Stalingrad is still to come. Exciting times ahead.

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

Closer to today...  Team Biden dumped a few $trillion on the Inflation Assurance Act and look how that worked out.

Clearly, he was responsible for the inflation that gripped that pretty much gripped the entire world except for China. Which was flirting with deflation at the time due to its own economic mismanagement.

[Cameroni]

8 minutes ago, save the frogs said:

 

Maybe that's what the conspiracy is.

To lower the spending power of the average american because they're already consuming most of the planet's resources.

But no one will willingly go along with this because no one cares about the planet.

So they chose "an arrogant unhinged madman" to do the dirty work since no one likes him anyway.

And then they will blame Trump for everything and have him knocked off. 

 

 

Do you really think anyone could control Trump?  Melania sure can't.

[Cameroni]

15 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What happened to winning winning winning?

 

I guess I just can't believe it's all happening, that Trump is really doing what he's doing. It's all too good to be true.

 

All joking aside, I do fear Chinese negotiators will be tough opponents for the US team, in the past the Chinese have won most negotiations. And it would be easy for Trump to concede, to avoid some pain for the US economy.

 

Let's see what happens. Trump's team looks good this time around, Scott Bessent is most impressive.

[Cameroni]

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You can repeat this nonsense all you like but during the Obama years there was no evidence of QE causing inflation. A few years later a lot of the signatories defended themselves by claiming that they didn't claim that there would be inflationary consequences, but only that there could have been.

 

Actually those economists were right. The academic research has now shown irrefutibly that QE does raise inflation. It's not "nonsense", it's cold hard academic consensus now. Nonsense would be to claim that QE does not cause inflation.

 

And btw, inflation in the Obama years was not unusually low by any means.

 

Of course it takes time for inflation to develop. It doesn't happen over a week or two.

[bunnydrops]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

As for antibodies it appears the US has enough for decades, certainly years. There should be no issue.

I would think they would have an expiration date.

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

Indeed, China's economic Stalingrad is still to come. Exciting times ahead.

Don't mean sh!t to me, unless it affects the exchange rate, which surprisingly has held steady at the 3rd of the month so far.  3rd is when our govt Soc Sec is DD in TH, for those non Yanks.

 

If inflation goes up in USA, well, that's a plus for Yank expats.

 

Exciting ... nah, but great comic relief as the haters go nuts with their silliness.   I don't even reply to most posts, as learned not to debate with the mentally ill ... since they're apparently stress out enough.

 

Facts may push them over the edge ... 

[bunnydrops]

I will admit that something needs to be done. As long as we are still Apes willing to hit another Ape over the head to get the shiny object it thinks it must have, we need to be able to make clubs. In ww2 the US built more than 2500 Liberty Ships in 4 years. As Vance correctly claimed, one ship builder in China has built more ships in one year than the US has built since the end of ww2. Trump needs to pick his target industries instead of his shotgun approach. Putting tariffs on bananas isn't going to bring banana farming to the US.

[Zack61]

3 hours ago, Cameroni said:

Clearly Trump is a man of peace though.

He doesn’t have a peaceful bone in his body. His whole being is to forge vile divisiveness and blatant lies to manipulate his audience. There is no peace in this approach. He is clearly a man to himself and his best interests. 

[SunnyinBangrak]

7 minutes ago, Zack61 said:

He doesn’t have a peaceful bone in his body. His whole being is to forge vile divisiveness and blatant lies to manipulate his audience. There is no peace in this approach. He is clearly a man to himself and his best interests. 

Bearing this in mind, do the hivemind regret waging nonsensical warfare on him, trying to fine him $500MILLION and ferreting through his wifes panty drawer and childs bedroom? Prepare for revenge my friend, the clowns overplayed their hand. Payback will be brutal, thankfully. 

[candide]

3 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

The real cause of inflation is the Fed printing money and making cheap loans, thus unleashing years of consumer spending that is not sustainable. While Covid and Ukraine exacerbated inflation, the true underlying cause is the printing of money and the unbridled loans and consumer spending dynamic.

 

This could not go on indefinitely. What producing in the US will mean is that indeed prices go up, therefore consumer spending goes down, and inflation also will go down. So Trump is well on the path to solving the inflation problem, something his predecessors completely neglected.

 

If he puts someone in the Fed who understands his plan, then the printing of money and excessive consumer spending due to cheap loans will end, possibly, and the US will have lower inflation than Germany had when the Deutschmark was still around.

Prices go up and inflation goes down.... 🙂

[candide]

2 hours ago, KhunLA said:

That's the 'art of the deal', any deal.   Ask for a loaf of bread, but settle on a half loaf.  No different than when I was  Union rep.

 

That's why the tariffs were put on hold.  Everyone gets time to think & negotiate, or threaten and rattle the sabers.   Until it's go time.

 

Then we'll all see how it pans out in a month or 2.  Don't think there is any surprises here.  

 

Not many, if any, country or more importantly, politician, can afford a halt in trading, or high tariffs, if not producing in country.   Which the USA does not.

 

Or if your country can't feed or energize itself.  

 

USA will end up with better trade deals under Trump, than before 2025 started.

The art of the deal... 🙂

[sandyf]

5 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

It is an ardous and difficult path to be sure. However, if you consider that Americans are 4% of the population and consume 18% of the planet, perhaps making things more expensive in the US will be a good thing for the planet. American consumers of course will have to rethink a bit, but clearly a change could benefit Americans and the world.

 

Trump has to fight many wars, internally there is a big question mark if he will be able to rally  enough people to accomplish his goals, whether he will sabotaged, indeed possibly killed. Externally the risk of wars is higher than it has ever been in our lifetime.

 

So yes, the stakes are very high. However, Trump's sensible approach in wanting to end the Ukraine war shows he is no war monger. It would actually have been beneficial for the US to continue to bleed out Russia. Clearly Trump is a man of peace though.

Delusional.

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, save the frogs said:

 

Maybe that's what the conspiracy is.

To lower the spending power of the average american because they're already consuming most of the planet's resources.

But no one will willingly go along with this because no one cares about the planet.

So they chose "an arrogant unhinged madman" to do the dirty work since no one likes him anyway.

And then they will blame Trump for everything and have him knocked off. 

 

Can you provide some names to let us know who "they" are? 

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Actually those economists were right. The academic research has now shown irrefutibly that QE does raise inflation. It's not "nonsense", it's cold hard academic consensus now. Nonsense would be to claim that QE does not cause inflation.

 

And btw, inflation in the Obama years was not unusually low by any means.

 

Of course it takes time for inflation to develop. It doesn't happen over a week or two.

You think if you say it often enough that makes your assertion about QE true?

As for this:

"And btw, inflation in the Obama years was not unusually low by any means."

Reconcile that assertion with this graph:

https://www.investopedia.com/us-inflation-rate-by-president-8546447

[Cameroni]

Does QE lead to higher inflation than conventional monetary policy?

 

 

My research compares the reported inflationary effects of QE and conventional monetary policy across 82 previous studies for the euro area, UK and US. This comparison shows that the reported inflationary effects of QE are two to four times higher than those of conventional monetary policy in the UK and US, but not in the euro area (see charts below). 

 

The result that QE generates more inflation than conventional monetary policy is therefore a general finding of academic research.

 

https://www.thebanker.com/content/dd5946ac-33f5-518f-af14-a148e24127c7

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

Does QE lead to higher inflation than conventional monetary policy?

 

 

My research compares the reported inflationary effects of QE and conventional monetary policy across 82 previous studies for the euro area, UK and US. This comparison shows that the reported inflationary effects of QE are two to four times higher than those of conventional monetary policy in the UK and US, but not in the euro area (see charts below). 

 

The result that QE generates more inflation than conventional monetary policy is therefore a general finding of academic research.

 

https://www.thebanker.com/content/dd5946ac-33f5-518f-af14-a148e24127c7

You chose the most extreme study out of all of those I could find. And since it's very effectively paywalled there's no telling whether or not it includes the Obama era. And I should hope not . It would obviously be nonsensicalwhen it comes to the Obama Era when inflation averaged 1.48%