Did the wheels start to fall off Trump's wagon last night?

[IsaanT]

Last night at midnight, the S&P500 suddenly dropped sharply (see 15-minute chart).  The daily session closed down 1.5%.

This coincided with the announcement of a weak 20-year bond auction (i.e. few wanted to buy the US's debt).  There are also heightened concerns about the burgeoning US government debt and potential fiscal imbalances.

It will be interesting to see where the market is in a week's time.

[LosLobo]

28 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

Last night at midnight, the S&P500 suddenly dropped sharply (see 15-minute chart).  The daily session closed down 1.5%.

This coincided with the announcement of a weak 20-year bond auction (i.e. few wanted to buy the US's debt).  There are also heightened concerns about the burgeoning US government debt and potential fiscal imbalances.

It will be interesting to see where the market is in a week's time.

 

You're right to be paying attention. The sharp drop in the S&P500 last night did line up with the weak 20-year bond auction — a clear sign that investors are growing uneasy about U.S. fiscal policy.
 

What’s spooking the market isn’t just the size of the debt, but who benefits from the proposed budget. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” pushes massive tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy while slashing key social programs. It's projected to add $4–5 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Bond buyers are starting to balk — and when bond demand dries up, yields rise and stocks feel the pressure.
 

It’s not just about one bad auction — it’s about a creeping realization that the U.S. might be entering a structurally unsustainable fiscal path. If that continues, we could see more of this volatility.
 

Definitely a week to watch.
 

And here’s the kicker: this legislation isn’t just fiscally reckless — it’s a full-scale economic realignment. It guts support for the working majority while handing windfalls to billionaires. That might please a few donors, but it risks hollowing out the base of the U.S. economy — the very people who keep demand alive. The market’s not driven by fairness, but it does care about instability. And right now, it smells smoke.

[BKKKevin]

The US no longer has any friends willing to buy its debt...

Are we tired of winning yet?... 

[Everyman]

1 hour ago, LosLobo said:

 

You're right to be paying attention. The sharp drop in the S&P500 last night did line up with the weak 20-year bond auction — a clear sign that investors are growing uneasy about U.S. fiscal policy.
 

What’s spooking the market isn’t just the size of the debt, but who benefits from the proposed budget. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” pushes massive tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy while slashing key social programs. It's projected to add $4–5 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Bond buyers are starting to balk — and when bond demand dries up, yields rise and stocks feel the pressure.
 

It’s not just about one bad auction — it’s about a creeping realization that the U.S. might be entering a structurally unsustainable fiscal path. If that continues, we could see more of this volatility.
 

Definitely a week to watch.
 

And here’s the kicker: this legislation isn’t just fiscally reckless — it’s a full-scale economic realignment. It guts support for the working majority while handing windfalls to billionaires. That might please a few donors, but it risks hollowing out the base of the U.S. economy — the very people who keep demand alive. The market’s not driven by fairness, but it does care about instability. And right now, it smells smoke.

 

Calling the  Trump tax cuts “tax cuts for the wealthy” has always been total nonsense. It comes down to, which is more? 5% of 50,000 or 2% of 500,000? 

 

The latter is more in absolute terms, even though the percent is larger on the first value. But saying tax rates are lower on the second is just dishonest.

 

If the tax cuts expire (and they should, it’s the best option) then watch how fast the narrative shifts to describing it as a tax increase on everybody. Nobody will even mention “the rich.” 

[LosLobo]

4 hours ago, Everyman said:

 

Calling the  Trump tax cuts “tax cuts for the wealthy” has always been total nonsense. It comes down to, which is more? 5% of 50,000 or 2% of 500,000? 

 

The latter is more in absolute terms, even though the percent is larger on the first value. But saying tax rates are lower on the second is just dishonest.

 

If the tax cuts expire (and they should, it’s the best option) then watch how fast the narrative shifts to describing it as a tax increase on everybody. Nobody will even mention “the rich.” 

 

Wait — you asked yourself a question just so you could answer it and call everyone else dishonest. That’s very clever.

Then you said:
“Saying tax rates are lower on the second is just dishonest.”

But the second rate is 2%. The first is 5%.
So you’re literally saying it’s dishonest to state that 2 is less than 5?

That’s not an argument.
If your logic can’t survive its own example, it might be time to rethink the point.

Seems reality has been optional for some folks for a while now.

[Yellowtail]

I think weak bonds typically push people to equities. 

 

Gold was down and the USD up the same day, so where's the money going?