Gold, the undisputed "safe harbor". Or is it?

[Yellowtail]

3 minutes ago, hotsun said:

I dont understand golds value as a hedge against the dollar because bitcoin does it better. I wouldnt expect anyone here to understand

Yeah, it was silly of me to think I might. 

[hotsun]

2 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Yeah, it was silly of me to think I might. 

Its not you personally, i think old folk without kids have no reason to research it

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

While I do not disagree, that chart is a bit suspect. In 1920, gold was about $20 an ounce. A $20 gold piece was 90% gold and weighed just over a Troy ounce. The last year they were minted was 1933. 

Inflation adjusted price.

 

[ericbj]

On 5/22/2025 at 8:43 PM, swissie said:

I am starting to feel a bit uneasy. More and more "financial advisors" pushing Gold as a uncontested "store of value", a "safe harbor". The "can't lose" syndrome making the rounds.

 

Those financial advisors forgetting to mention, that Gold has gone thru "bear markets". The last one lasting from July 2011 to December 2015. From $ 1830 down to $ 1060. Not sure if Gold holders considered Gold as a store of value during this time.

 

Let's face it, Gold is a metal (a commodity if you will) it's value measured in US$ daily. Supply and demand, just like in any other commodity.

 

I find it disturbing that increasingly financial advisors are recommending Gold to small investors as a "can't lose" investment.

Never put all your eggs in one basket.  In "normal times" the recommendation was usually about 5% of asset value in gold.  Many in current abnormal times say 30 to 40%.  Gold is not just another commodity.  It is money.  It is one of only two tier-one assets, the other being the US dollar, which is not money, it is a fiat currency.  The dollar is falling in value, which explains some part of the rise of the dollar price of gold.  The other being gold demand, so far mostly from central banks and financial institutions.  Gold will slip back a bit from time to time but is on an upward trend.  Do not buy 'paper-gold', do not invest in gold ETFs, do not invest in gold exploration companies, buy gold mining shares or royalty or streaming shares for leverage in a gold bull market (works the other way when the gold price falls).  Store your bullion, allocated and ideally segregated with a vaulting company in a trusted jurisdiction other than your country of origin or of domicile.  All markets are cyclic.  So look at the cycles.  In theory we should be in a commodities bull market, but it is being hit by economic turmoil.  Gold can survive a recession, where most commodities will fail.  Remember gold bullion pays no dividends; it costs to store and insure it.  Look upon it as a form of insurance, rather than profits (although the current circumstances are exceptional).

[FlorC]

3 hours ago, hotsun said:

Its not you personally, i think old folk without kids have no reason to research it

Both gold and bitcoin are good to circumvent inheritance tax.

 

Bitcoin would be very easy for folks that don't have children or heirs.

The bitcoin would just get lost .

 

[ericbj]

Not sure if this interview might lend perspective to investing in the current unusual state of the markets:

 

 

[Yellowtail]

11 hours ago, ericbj said:

Not sure if this interview might lend perspective to investing in the current unusual state of the markets:

 

 

What did they say? 

[ericbj]

32 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

What did they say? 

Amongst other things they spoke of how gold may perform in a crisis - as it has performed in previous crises, i.e. down, then up.

[swissie]

On 5/25/2025 at 11:50 AM, ExpatOilWorker said:

1980-2000 was a bad streek for gold. Could easily happen again.

 

This is exactly why I started this thread. = Bear markets in Gold DO happen.

 

Above chart shows a peak in 1980 @ $ 2400, finding a bottom in 2000 @ $ 400. A 20 year long bear market. During this time, Gold-Bugs were not "happy campers".

 

The 1980 peak was the result of high inflation. Today, it's global "uncertainty" and the reckless deficit-spending of most coutries that supports the price of Gold. As there is no reversal of this constellation is in sight, Gold will remain "well supported". Me thinks.

 

But lo and behold, we have a miracle worker in the White House. If he manages to cure the world, Gold may again enter a 20 year bear market.😊

[swissie]

On 5/24/2025 at 4:55 PM, jas007 said:

And that's why silver is a good deal right now. There's only so much of it above ground, and only so much is mined every year.  And it's not just for investment, it's used in industry.  And for years, the price has been manipulated.  One of these days, the true value will surface.   

 Currently Silver is trying to "catch-up" with Gold. Trying, well understood.

The fact, that Silver is a store of value as well as a industrial metal is both a blessing and a curse. In a global recession, the "industrial metal part" will likely become a "curse".

 

Unless "the markets" realise that Silver is undervalued by any standarts. Only then, Silver can shine with a "stellar performance", as has happened before.

 

[swissie]

On 5/24/2025 at 4:41 PM, Yellowtail said:

I have some physical silver, I bought at $16.98, in I think 2014. 

 

310 Troy ounces weighs 9.642kg and is worth about $10,300. You need a BIG safety box for this. 

 

$10,300 in gold weighs about 3.07 Troy ounces or about 96 grams, which you can carry in a shirt pocket. 

 

$100,000.00 in gold weighs 904 grams, and will fit in a small safety box. 

 

Since I bought my metal, gold is up ~160% while silver is only up ~90%

 

 

 

That's the problem with Silver as a store of value: It weighs too much and costs too little.

 

It's robbing me of my sleep: How many truckloads of Silver would Elon Musk need once he converts his paper Dollar assets into Silver?

[jas007]

15 minutes ago, swissie said:

 Currently Silver is trying to "catch-up" with Gold. Trying, well understood.

The fact, that Silver is a store of value as well as a industrial metal is both a blessing and a curse. In a global recession, the "industrial metal part" will likely become a "curse".

 

Unless "the markets" realise that Silver is undervalued by any standarts. Only then, Silver can shine with a "stellar performance", as has happened before.

 

I still remember back when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.  Was it gold or silver?  Whichever it was, it worked, until it didn't.  It was fun while it lasted, though. 

 

 

[swissie]

1 minute ago, jas007 said:

I still remember back when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.  Was it gold or silver?  Whichever it was, it worked, until it didn't.  It was fun while it lasted, though. 

 

 

It was the Hunt Brothers. Silver. With the help of "Bache" as their broker. (Later called Bache Prudential). Don't know what happened to Bache Prudential nor the Hunt Brothers. But as I remember, it wasn't a happy ending for the Hunt Brothers.

[Yellowtail]

6 minutes ago, swissie said:

That's the problem with Silver as a store of value: It weighs too much and costs too little.

 

It's robbing me of my sleep: How many truckloads of Silver would Elon Musk need once he converts his paper Dollar assets into Silver?

I think: 

 

$100K worth of silver @ $33.10 per Troy ounce. 

That's about 90.63kg and ~8.64 liters

 

Elon's worth ~$421B, so assuming 40 metric tons per load, that's 9,540 truck loads, or about 36,375 m^3 of silver

 

 

[swissie]

On 5/25/2025 at 4:10 PM, ericbj said:

Never put all your eggs in one basket.  In "normal times" the recommendation was usually about 5% of asset value in gold.  Many in current abnormal times say 30 to 40%.  Gold is not just another commodity.  It is money.  It is one of only two tier-one assets, the other being the US dollar, which is not money, it is a fiat currency.  The dollar is falling in value, which explains some part of the rise of the dollar price of gold.  The other being gold demand, so far mostly from central banks and financial institutions.  Gold will slip back a bit from time to time but is on an upward trend.  Do not buy 'paper-gold', do not invest in gold ETFs, do not invest in gold exploration companies, buy gold mining shares or royalty or streaming shares for leverage in a gold bull market (works the other way when the gold price falls).  Store your bullion, allocated and ideally segregated with a vaulting company in a trusted jurisdiction other than your country of origin or of domicile.  All markets are cyclic.  So look at the cycles.  In theory we should be in a commodities bull market, but it is being hit by economic turmoil.  Gold can survive a recession, where most commodities will fail.  Remember gold bullion pays no dividends; it costs to store and insure it.  Look upon it as a form of insurance, rather than profits (although the current circumstances are exceptional).

Yes indeed, Gold did "slip back a little" during 1980 and 2000.

 

Storage: Private Gold Dealers spring up like mushrooms, offering to store the purchased Gold in their "vaults" in your name for an amazingly small annual fee. Hands off! Take your Gold to a place not associated with the shop you bought the Gold from. Especially if the Gold shop is located somewhere in S/E Asia.

[swissie]

9 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I think: 

 

$100K worth of silver @ $33.10 per Troy ounce. 

That's about 90.63kg and ~8.64 liters

 

Elon's worth ~$421B, so assuming 40 metric tons per load, that's 9,540 truck loads, or about 36,375 m^3 of silver

 

 

Thanks for calculating this for me. I expected something like that. If Elon should have to leave the country in a hurry, he would not leave the country with 9000 trucks in his wake, heading for Eastern Timbukto.😉

 

Like I said, Siler is too heavy and costs too little. Rats!