Will the baht continue to get stronger?

[Isaan sailor]

The strong Baht gives me pause.  No big projects or purchases now.  Will ride it out till this tariff nonsense ends.  After that, if the Baht rises further—BoT should devalue the Baht.  And if they don’t—well, there’s always Vietnam and the hope they introduce a better visa program.

[Yellowtail]

30 minutes ago, jas007 said:

From what I can tell, the current implied volatility over a six month period is around 8%.  I don't ever fool around with trading currencies or commodities, but I'm sure good traders can make 10% every six months if they can play by rules and keep their emotions in check. That's the hard part.   

But if they are, they are not generating forecasts and posting them online, unless they want to drive the market. 

 

 

30 minutes ago, jas007 said:

 

It might be fun to set up a trading BOT, give it some strict rules, give it some money, and see what happens.  

 

I do not really think that can work in the long term. It works with equity index funds, but I think only because the equities generally all move in the same direction, and that is typically up. It's not a zero-sum game. 

 

I think to make long money in currencies and commodities, you have to know what makes them move and know when a world event is going to spark the move. Buy oil futures the moment Iran nukes the Saudis, for example.

 

I think what Trump does may weaken the dollar, but I do not think Trump wants to devalue the dollar. 

 

[thaibreaker]

The best outcome for Euro, NOK, SEK, DK and more, has been Trump at the wheel in the US. The USD has lost a significant value compared to these valutas, and we cannot say anything else than thank you, Trump. I personally get 8 percent more for my money in Thailand now, after the dollar fall, and baht adjusting to it.

[KhunLA]

22 minutes ago, thaibreaker said:

The best outcome for Euro, NOK, SEK, DK and more, has been Trump at the wheel in the US. The USD has lost a significant value compared to these valutas, and we cannot say anything else than thank you, Trump. I personally get 8 percent more for my money in Thailand now, after the dollar fall, and baht adjusting to it.

Does mean exports into the USA may decline, as will be more expensive, so not sure how that is a 'best outcome', unless you're a tourist, planning to holiday in USA, or if buying imported products from the USA.

 

If your products are more expensive to one of the largest consuming countries of the world, can't see how that helps your export sales or manufacturing sector.    Especially if you work in that sector.

[thaibreaker]

42 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Does mean exports into the USA may decline, as will be more expensive, so not sure how that is a 'best outcome', unless you're a tourist, planning to holiday in USA, or if buying imported products from the USA.

 

If your products are more expensive to one of the largest consuming countries of the world, can't see how that helps your export sales or manufacturing sector.    Especially if you work in that sector.

Not talking about that at all. I'm only talking about my (our) baht (vs our own valuta) value in Thailand. 

I have no intention on ever visiting the US, nor am I importing or buying American products. 

The dollar fall is only to my (and others in my situation's) benefit. 

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, thaibreaker said:

Not talking about that at all. I'm only talking about my (our) baht (vs our own valuta) value in Thailand. 

I have no intention on ever visiting the US, nor am I importing or buying American products. 

Good news that!

[thaibreaker]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

Good news that!

Yup, and America won't miss me either 😂

[KhunLA]

19 minutes ago, thaibreaker said:

Not talking about that at all. I'm only talking about my (our) baht value in Thailand. 

I have no intention on ever visiting the US, nor I am importing or buying American products.

THB is where it's been for the last 19 ish year, 30-35 / $1.

 

It dip below 30, for short period during Bush, Obama, Trump 1 & Biden

it popped above 35, during Bush, Obama, Trump 1 & Biden.

 

Some nice peaks during Biden, though people didn't really think that would last.  I was hoping Harris would win 

 

 

[SiamAndy]

In the orange man's first term the USD was as low as 29.6948 THB in 2019. It seems we could get down to 30 THB per USD again in the orange one's second term.

 

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-THB-spot-exchange-rates-history-2019.html

 

Best exchange rate: 32.335 THB on 01 Jan 2019.

Average exchange rate in 2019: 31.035 THB.

Worst exchange rate: 29.6948 THB on 31 Dec 2019.

[Yellowtail]

Oh no, the orange man is destroying the dollar!!!

 

[thaibreaker]

30 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

THB is where it's been for the last 19 ish year, 30-35 / $1.

 

It dip below 30, for short period during Bush, Obama, Trump 1 & Biden

it popped above 35, during Bush, Obama, Trump 1 & Biden

 

 

 

The USD has decreased 15% to MY valuta since Trump took over. That is expected to rise to around 20% before it stabilizes. According to valuta experts in my country.

 

That means for me personally that the Thai Baht has been adjusting accordingly, but not as much (which is why this thread mention a stronger baht, not weaker) . It means for us retirees from Nordic countries, who have retired here in Thailand, we benefit from the dollar fall, because the Thai Baht has become weaker for us.

 

The difference with your comparison, is that our valuta used to follow that stream. This time, WE DON'T. Our valuta has clearly been strengthening compared to USD.

 

You see the difference? We will see if this continues to be the case, or if it's only temporary, and our valuta will catch up to the ups and downs of the USD. Our experts think not, they are expecting an even weaker dollar.

[KhunLA]

9 minutes ago, thaibreaker said:

The USD has decreased 15% to MY valuta since Trump took over. That is expected to rise to around 20% before it stabilizes. According to valuta experts in my country.

 

That means for me personally that the Thai Baht has been adjusting accordingly, but not as much (which is why this thread mention a stronger baht, not weaker) . It means for us Nordic countries who has retired here in Thailand, we benefit from the dollar fall. 

 

The difference in your comparison, is that our valuta used to follow that stream. This time, WE DON'T. Our valuta is clearly strengthening compared to USD.

 

You see the difference? We will see if this continues to be the case, or if it's only temporary, and our valuta will catch up to the ups and downs of the USD. Our experts think not, they are expecting an even weaker dollar.

What is your home country's currency ?

 

Guessing you're not Finish, as they use EUR

[thaibreaker]

6 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Oh no, the orange man is destroying the dollar!!!

 

Funny, but you don't seem to get my point either. You Americans are viewing this through your USD and your eyes only, and only comparing it to Thai Baht. I am speaking for those who actually benefit on this.

[thaibreaker]

2 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

What is your home country's currency ?

 

Denmark ??? 

Norway, NOK. And Sweden, SEK, our neighbors, has had the same strengthening.

Denmark is bound to the Euro, and follow that instead.

[pub2022]

If I had and answer to that I'd be millionaire now.

[cjinchiangrai]

On 6/3/2025 at 5:37 PM, Mavideol said:

we still have to wait until all the hi-so complete their overseas investments, then ???? you guess it's as good as mine but quite sure Thai exporters are suffering

On the exchange, maybe a little, but China needs sources to replace US Rice and fruit. This could be a good year for Thailand.

[connda]

32.733?  That's heading south.  

[Yellowtail]

It was 32.3643 on Sep 28, 2024, and it's 32.6869 today.