Finance Thai Baht Faces Volatility Amid US Trade Talks and Border Tensions

[snoop1130]

File photo for reference only

 

The Thai baht is poised for a challenging week, with expectations of it weakening to approximately 32.85 per US dollar amidst ongoing economic uncertainties. Analysts from the Kasikorn Research Center forecast the baht's movement between 32.00 and 32.80 against the dollar from July 28 to August 1, as various factors are set to influence its trajectory.

 

Key influences include the results of US-Thai trade negotiations, evolving tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border, and the highly anticipated US Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for July 29-30. In light of these factors, increased volatility is expected, with a potential further depreciation of the baht.

 

Just last week, the baht appreciated to 32.11 against the dollar, its strongest showing since February 2022. This rally was buoyed by rising gold prices, while the US dollar faced pressure due to market concerns about the independence of the US Federal Reserve. Criticism of the Fed chair’s performance added to the current volatility, according to K-Research.

 

Krungsri Global Markets also predicts a decline in the baht, suggesting it will oscillate between 32.25 and 32.85 per dollar this week. The recent weakening of the currency has been exacerbated by rising tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border.

 

Krungsri anticipates that the US Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate unchanged at this week’s meeting, despite mounting criticism from the US government.

Further, the outcome of trade talks between the US and countries including Thailand could bolster the US dollar, exerting additional pressure on the baht, the firm observed.

 

Krungthai Global Markets echoes these sentiments, warning of potential two-way risks affecting the baht, driven by both dollar performance and global gold prices. The ongoing US-Thai trade discussions could be intricately linked to the border situation with Cambodia, according to their traders.

 

"The uncertainties could pressure the baht to fall to 32.70-32.80 per dollar within this week," a Krungthai spokesperson commented, highlighting the fragile economic environment.

 

As the week unfolds, market participants and stakeholders in Thailand will be watching closely for any developments that could further influence the baht's trajectory. With US policy decisions and geopolitical tensions in the region at play, the currency's path remains uncertain.

 

Keep an eye on these developments to understand how they might affect not only the Thai baht but broader economic conditions in the region. In local terms, this shift could impact prices and spending for Thai consumers, translating into wider repercussions for Southeast Asian markets.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2025-07-30

 

 

[ozz1]

If they don't do something about the baht being overvalued they are going to suffer big time with exports and tourism people are spending wisely in this climate and at the moment Vietnam are giving more value on the exchange to most currencies and it's still cheap value

[ronster]

Nothing will happen to it as usual.

It is invincible 😀

[LALes]

Who gives a squat about the baht's miniscule moves in the 32 range?  

Better think of a way to get it back over 34 or 35 or you'll really have 

cause to complain.

[hotchilli]

15 hours ago, ozz1 said:

If they don't do something about the baht being overvalued they are going to suffer big time with exports and tourism people are spending wisely in this climate and at the moment Vietnam are giving more value on the exchange to most currencies and it's still cheap value

If they don't sort out the tariffs with USA they will be truly sunk in the future.

Thai ministers saying they will just subsidise some Thai products will not go down well in Washington.

That's exactly what China does to sell in the market place to under-cut others.

I really do think the Thai ministers don't realise the game is up.

[shackleton]

The Teflon baht to many people's hopes will not move weaker against the $ 

And British pound the days of over 70 baht to the pound are long gone 

Lucky to get over 40 baht to the pound 💷 

The way the British economy is going 😱

[Kenny Boy]

Copy and paste

[lordgrinz]

A whole 32.85? Wow! 🙄

[angryguy]

The value of the yen is on a better trend and so the tourists that would be going to thailand are now going to japan

[WEBBYB808]

1 hour ago, ronster said:

Nothing will happen to it as usual.

It is invincible 😀

It's been fluctuating for ten years between 29 and 36 to USD.  It's super money it never gets weak or strong.  Some how it's just kept in this zone

[peter48]

There's no volatility when Brits only get 43.5 to pound and when most ATMs drop that further. Whatever happens in Thailand Brits get less. Of course Johnson / Farage Brexit took it down to 34bht but that's because Tories & BBC  conspired to hide truth: Brexit was severe self harm to UK economy for decades ahead ...We still suffer Farage idiocy. 

 

You may ask why? Because UK pays more to trade in Single Market of 500 million Europeans from Norway down to Switzerland to Spain to Greece. In one research in 2023  UK is estimated 2nd most unequal society in Europe bar Bulgaria. That's the rich concentrated in SE vs regions to North etc

[AhFarangJa]

I just brought my pension over this morning, so watch it tank in the next three weeks, then rally in four weeks time......

[norsurin]

I was just waiting for this statement.Thats the only thing they talking about.Thai baht all the time.

This greedy country will suffer in the end.

[Srikcir]

20 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Criticism of the Fed chair’s performance added to the current volatility, according to K-Research.

Let's be clear:

Criticism of the Fed chair’s performance by POTUS Trump added to the current volatility as Trump continues a vague and faulty economic tariff policy.