Global Correction

[lannarebirth]

I wouldn't be buying that Gold just yet bingo (at least not in $USD).

I am curious why you feel this way. Aside from I do see the price drop today.

Do you think many will be selling gold now to raise cash to buy into market again?

If so that was a very quick time for gold as king yes?

It's chart structure IMO is incomplete, and requires further basebuilding to move higher. Also at least one untested breakout. Sadly, same applies to $USD. Alsotoo many Gold threads on ThaVisa.

[flying]

It's chart structure IMO is incomplete, and requires further basebuilding to move higher. Also at least one untested breakout. Sadly, same applies to $USD. Alsotoo many Gold threads on ThaVisa.

Thanks I was mainly curious as it at least seems like a real investment these days

I was wondering if most thought it may return to the 6-7 hundred range or ??

Funny how when we were young we would joke about how Pot cost more than gold per ounce back in the early 70's.

[VegasVic]

One thing about US markets is, they are likely less levered up than overseas markets and shoould bottom earlier. You could try a pair trade, long US short foreign. Just thinking.

Lanna, Don't talk too loudly about this idea, please The U.S. markets just went through capitulation yesterday, at least allow me time to place all my bets before you get the herd following your sage advice As far as the Bingo the profit goes, I gave him kudos some time back on this thead and once again I would like to congratulate him on his predictions. Bingo has been derided far too often here on thaivisa and while he has not always been correct in his posts he did warn everyone here of what was to come. Personally I see the panic ending here over the next couple of months and most of of the worlds economies geting back on their feet, but there will be a prolonged period of very nominal growth or flat GDP's worldwide, and because of this I see commodities falling further, so I would strongly dissagreee with Bingo about the future of gold, as a matter of fact I see gold going down a good deal further!

[LaoPo]

DOW drops more than 700 points; NASDAQ -8.5% and S&P500 dropped -9%

Blue-chip index suffers second-biggest point drop in its history

http://www.marketwatch.com/

Dow 8,577.91 -733.08 (-7.87%)

Nasdaq 1,628.33 -150.68 (-8.47%)

S&P 500 907.78 -90.23 (-9.04%)

Oil companies were severely beaten;a Super Giant like EXXON MOBIL went down -14% and lost some $ 40/45 BILLION of their market value in just one day

Some other oil companies went down even more, percentage wise.

Sectors:

Basic Materials -14.03%

Capital Goods -10.19%

Conglomerates -9.77%

Cons. Cyclical -10.44%

Cons. Non-Cyclical -5.63%

Energy -14.47%

Financial -8.64%

Healthcare -5.69%

Services -8.60%

Technology -8.26%

Transportation -8.63%

Utilities -7.06%

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

DOW drops more than 700 points; NASDAQ -8.5% and S&P500 dropped -9%

Blue-chip index suffers second-biggest point drop in its history

http://www.marketwatch.com/

Dow 8,577.91 -733.08 (-7.87%)

Nasdaq 1,628.33 -150.68 (-8.47%)

S&P 500 907.78 -90.23 (-9.04%)

Oil companies were severely beaten;a Super Giant like EXXON MOBIL went down -14% and lost some $ 40/45 BILLION of their market value in just one day

Some other oil companies went down even more, percentage wise.

Sectors:

Basic Materials -14.03%

Capital Goods -10.19%

Conglomerates -9.77%

Cons. Cyclical -10.44%

Cons. Non-Cyclical -5.63%

Energy -14.47%

Financial -8.64%

Healthcare -5.69%

Services -8.60%

Technology -8.26%

Transportation -8.63%

Utilities -7.06%

LaoPo

It's breathtaking Lao Po. From where I sit, it's not so much the size of the moves I find so alarming, but the speed.

[LaoPo]

It's breathtaking Lao Po. From where I sit, it's not so much the size of the moves I find so alarming, but the speed.

Yes; it also shows that whatever global Governments are trying to do...to save....to bail out....to buy into banks...it's not enough and will not be enough, not even if they save and buy themselves into large companies. I hold my breath for large Giant companies in the US and EU !

The -real- economy has already been infected in a more serious way than anyone could have anticipated. You mentioned in another topic that pension funds are in bad weather...they are.

A small example is the situation in Holland; it came to surface, only today, that quite a few councils, provinces and even a nuclear reactor stashed a few hundred million euro of their surplus money on deposits with -now- infected, nationalized or bankrupt entities/banks (with A ratings !) like Lehman and ICESAVE from Iceland; the total damage is near € 1.8 Billion, private investors included with just one bank, ICESAVE.

That's just a small country....

One of the major problems is that banks amongst each other do not trust and loan to each other, not even with all the guarantees the EU and US Governments submitted with their hundreds and hundreds of Billions of dollars and euros. (Holland just guaranteed € 200 Billion/$ 270 Billion.....for inter banking guarantees; just as an example).

Trust, faith, confidence and spirit are completely gone; fear has taken over but I also think that this fear is justified only BECAUSE so much is unknown to us, still.

People in the US and EU stopped buying new cars and other costly investments (and loans) not only because they fear the future but also because banks stopped giving out loans (and mortgages!).

The S&P500 (907) is only a little over 10% away from it's lowest point in 10 years ! (800 in 2002); the same for the DOW.

Wednesday 15th. the markets in Europe dropped like stones with -5%, -6, -7, -8% and even more; the drop on the stock markets in Asia on Wednesday were 'moderate' in comparison with US/EU but they will drop a lot more, Thursday 16th.

It's not over yet, by far.

LaoPo

[Bizz]

well folks, my time on this thread has concluded

i started this thread on August 17, 2007 and was met with derision by fools, the inept, and amateurs, but happily i am the one laughing now

i tried to provided guidance and warnings but kept my position despite the personal attacks thru it all, some of you on this thread are competent but most are fools (i won't mention names as there are too many bagholders to mention)

i will leave you this last piece of guidance:

1) go long the Japanese Yen

2) the bottom on the DOW (and global markets) is not in yet if 7700 on the DOW is broken (if resistance at 8500 is cleared then bounce will come)

3) go to cash (get rid of stocks, condos, any debt and ALL commodities other than gold)

4) good luck as many of you will need it (i won't need luck becasue i choose to think instead)

Everyone is quoteing fundamentals charts quoting bloomberg cnn. Bottom line is protect yourself.

Personally i protected myself half in cash except a buy order for preferential shares in a certain no of banks. So far i have won with my buy orders. Still winning half in cash and half in preferential shares, banks only. Then i am only a AMATEUR.

[LaoPo]

Everyone is quoteing fundamentals charts quoting bloomberg cnn. Bottom line is protect yourself.

Personally i protected myself half in cash except a buy order for preferential shares in a certain no of banks. So far i have won with my buy orders. Still winning half in cash and half in preferential shares, banks only. Then i am only a AMATEUR.

.....hmmmm...good luck to you ! You're a brave man...

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Saw this Yahoo headline, "Retail sales plunge 1.2 percent in September" C'mon is 1.2% really a "plunge"? The article goes on to say

" Retail sales fell off a cliff in September". Is all of the media talking like this? All terror, all the time. That's no way to live.

[hyperdimension]

Someone who invested in July 1997 (over 11 years ago) would be at around break-even now... or even worse if accounting for inflation.

The S&P 500 index is now in 42% drawdown (note to LaoPo: not -42%). Those who had 100K invested in the markets at the October 2007 peak now have lost 42K of it.

Most people would have thought that only stupid and/or irresponsible people could lose that kind of money, either amount-wise or percentage-wise. But it's happening to everyone now, despite having some of the cleverest and most intelligent people managing our investments. (I once was invited to an interview a few years ago for a position at Goldman Sachs, and was told I'd have to pass a series of 10 interviews.)

If I hear anyone touting something like "long term investing is the only reliable way to build wealth" I'm going to have a strong urge to punch them in the face. The damned financial advisors & fund managers were just looking for fees/commissions out of us.

Look at how far down MACD has gone... it looks like it's been the lowest ever, almost reaching -100.

Edited October 16, 2008 by hyperdimension

[flying]

If I hear anyone touting something like "long term investing is the only reliable way to build wealth" I'm going to have a strong urge to punch them in the face.

I was not invested but feel for you.

I know what you mean.....So many times over the years folks have told me Buy & Hold is the only way to long term wealth.

[Naam]

If I hear anyone touting something like "long term investing is the only reliable way to build wealth" I'm going to have a strong urge to punch them in the face.

I was not invested but feel for you.

I know what you mean.....So many times over the years folks have told me Buy & Hold is the only way to long term wealth.

did they tell you WHAT to buy and hold? if it had been possible for me to hold on to everything i ever bought which went belly-up i'd still have to work for another 11 days till retirement. because i did not i retired nearly 19 years ago.

Edited October 16, 2008 by Naam

[lordofdelusion]

Well it's all clear now. This AM on the CNBC website they have 2 articles from technical analysts. One says we are at a bottom and we'll see a bull run like in the 70's. The other says the charts look like 1929 and we will fall another 27%. So I'm off to long/short the market and enjoy the rise/fall.

[LaoPo]

World wide stock markets are in a deadly spiral. Everything is going down and not a single investment market is rising this year.

Oil, commodities, bourses, bonds and precious metals like gold; everything is down.

Normally, bonds would be a safe haven and rise but bonds hardly move also.

The only thing that's moving up is the US $ because there's a shortage in dollars to pay off huge debts and thus money is withdrawn from assets in shares, bonds, gold, whatever. Hedge funds are turning for large parts into cash and insurers have enormous commitments because of failed banks and financials and need hard cash dollars...and dollars are hard to find; a few countries are even on the brink of a total collapse and Doctor IMF has to be called in.

The shortage in dollars is hurting other currencies as some members have experienced. The shortage in dollars is mainly caused by a lack in credit possibilities and a TOP CEO of a triple AAA bank in Europe said this afternoon: "Banks are still not lending to each other. They will only do so IF their respective governments will guarantee those loans (to the other -foreign- bank)". That will happen because the 27 EU governments agree upon to do so but it will take time PLUS the requiring bank has to pay a premium for that guarantee.

In the meantime assets have to be sold to meet commitments.

Personally I see US/EU/OZ/NZ and some Asian stock markets slide even more before they hit a bottom. Another 20 to 25% from present levels wouldn't surprise me.

A few days ago I noticed a message from someone who said he wasn't worried about the large mining/commodity companies in Oz because they had long term contracts with buyers like India, China etc. Those contracts are worthless in nowadays markets and can be thrown in the garbage can.

Stay cash.

LaoPo

[AlexLah]

From what I know, this crisis is far from over and just beginning.

There is a 54 Trillion Dollar derivatives market waiting to explode.

Nobody understands what they really are and Wall Street and others are just hoping nobody finds out the magnitude of that problem.

The injection of money in the banking system will only delay the global financial meltdown.

[flying]

did they tell you WHAT to buy and hold? if it had been possible for me to hold on to everything i ever bought which went belly-up i'd still have to work for another 11 days till retirement. because i did not i retired nearly 19 years ago.

Well of course they always had blue chips in mind.

But so did many others who are in tears today yes

[flying]

What if ??

What would be the outcome of governments saying

those who hold toxic debts get to keep them?

What if they said you knew it was a gamble to lend money to those who

probably could not repay. You rolled the dice now you pay the price? Sometimes you win

this time you lost........big.

Would the outcome be any worse than the direction we are headed in now?

Curious what other think.

[Naam]

From what I know, this crisis is far from over and just beginning.

There is a 54 Trillion Dollar derivatives market waiting to explode.

Nobody understands what they really are and Wall Street and others are just hoping nobody finds out the magnitude of that problem.

The injection of money in the banking system will only delay the global financial meltdown.

i

have

nothing

much

and

nothing

new

to

say.

that's

why

i

space

my

posting

[Dave the Dude]

i

have

nothing

much

and

nothing

new

to

say.

that's

why

i

space

my

posting

That must be the longest post you have ever made,Naam?

[Naam]

That must be the longest post you have ever made,Naam?

that's not correct. i have made short postings and i have made long postings. what i am trying to avoid (and i think i am quite successful) is posting undefined as well as unrefined ambivalent bullsh* prophecies without underlying facts.

[AlexLah]

So you deny that there is a 54 Trillion Dollars derivatives market Naam?

Do you deny that there is not enough money to cover it?

Do you deny the fact that world leaders have called for a global financial system?

Do you deny this: http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/pop...226714&news

Do you deny this: http://www.kitco.com/ind/stansberry/oct072008.html

It is all happening right in front of our eyes, and nobody takes action .

Have a good day,

Alex

[LaoPo]

So you deny that there is a 54 Trillion Dollars derivatives market Naam?

Do you deny that there is not enough money to cover it?

Do you deny the fact that world leaders have called for a global financial system?

C'mon Alex, Naam didn't deny anything. He is and was responding to YOUR kind of secretive and silly messages with your secret numbers 13 and 7 if I remember well and YOU refusing to explain to the audience on TV what your messages are all about.

Instead you give us ''secret'' tips that your message is about the price of tea in China, the name of an abandoned (US) navy base on Iceland (Keflavik) and other messages from outer space of the same kind."

I know for a fact that Naam is very well informed what's going on in the economical and financial world and so am I. But it might be better if you stop writing messages about what's going to happen in the world with a content nobody understands what's all about.

I haven't seen any follow up of those messages and what they mean...and what is going to happen.

You leave everybody floating in the air, so to speak, showing a kind of superiority that YOU are the one who knows it all and refuse to tell us whats going on.

That's childish.

If you have anything to say, say it and say it clear but don't come up with silly secretive messages written with so much space between every sentence...

LaoPo

Edited October 17, 2008 by LaoPo

[AlexLah]

Hi LaoPo,

Thanks for that, I am just trying to be a bit funny, but I understand that when posting a message it could be misiunderstood.

Sorry Naam, I hope you accept my sincere apologies.

My native language is not English so I am sorry for that.

Anyway the number 13 referred to 13 October, yes a surprising rise in the stock market.

7, yes seven you could refer to the G7 and them not presenting any real solutions and the US not admitting the problem.

The US thinks it is just an accident that happened and do not think it is a structural problem.

7 also means that 7 months from now (April/May 2009) the whole system will melt down and I mean a real melt down.

A long term prediction I know, but I have been right in the past.

As I said, this whole derivatives market of 54 Trillion is based on money that just not exist.

Take care all,

Alex

[Dave the Dude]

That must be the longest post you have ever made,Naam?

that's not correct. i have made short postings and i have made long postings. what i am trying to avoid (and i think i am quite successful) is posting undefined as well as unrefined ambivalent bullsh* prophecies without underlying facts.

Hi Naam

I have now read the whole thread and understand why you did what you did. My apologies(thats 2 in one day, not bad Hey! ).

I wrote what I wrote because your posts normally are short,sharp, to the point and CORRECT.

A bit like Doctor Spock and not a Klingon

Dave

[flying]

7 also means that 7 months from now (April/May 2009) the whole system will melt down and I mean a real melt down.

A long term prediction I know, but I have been right in the past.

Can you say what has brought you to this conclusion time wise?

[lannarebirth]

Love it!

Andrew Lahde, manager of a small California hedge fund, Lahde Capital, burst into the spotlight last year after his one-year-old fund returned 866 percent betting against the subprime collapse.

Last month, he did the unthinkable -- he shut things down, claiming dealing with his bank

counterparties had become too risky. Today, Lahde passed along his "goodbye" letter, a rollicking missive on everything from greed to economic philosophy. Enjoy:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27239479

[lannarebirth]

Analyst fired for saying greed is bad

http://www.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnough...News&rpc=69

[Naam]

7 also means that 7 months from now (April/May 2009) the whole system will melt down and I mean a real melt down.

A long term prediction I know, but I have been right in the past.

hmmm... Alex. may i humbly draw your attention to the gold price prediction you made several months ago?

and why is there a delay of the total melt down for another seven months? only days ago you forecasted the meltdown for this week. but then... i admit the week is not over. something terrible might happen this weekend, like my dog pooing in the pool

[Naam]

I have now read the whole thread and understand why you did what you did. My apologies(thats 2 in one day, not bad Hey! ).

I wrote what I wrote because your posts normally are short,sharp, to the point and CORRECT.

A bit like Doctor Spock and not a Klingon

Dave

let me tell you a secret Dave. Vulcans (like Spock) possess their sharp logic due to genetics. these genetics were altered since many generations by adding Klingon genes. whenever there was a dull boring time, i.e. no war, the favourite pastime of Klingons was to raid planet Vulcan and rape the living beejesus out of their women folks. after a certain time passed rape was not necessary as the fact spread fast that all organs come double with Klingons. like two hearts, two stomachs, two... you know what

[Naam]

the good news is:

Forty years ago I sold fifty shares of my company stock and had enough

money to purchase a brand-new 1967 Ford pickup. Last week, I checked it

out, and if I sold another fifty shares, Id have enough money to buy a

1967 Ford pickup. So, the market has stabilized.