How Iran could cripple the Gulf

Iran has threatened to strike the Gulf’s biggest oil facilities — a move that could cripple global energy supplies, destabilise the Middle East and trigger a new cost-of-living crisis in Britain.

Western officials warn Tehran still holds a vast missile arsenal capable of hitting regional energy hubs despite sustained US and Israeli strikes. With tensions escalating, Keir Starmer is expected to convene the UK’s emergency COBRA committee to assess the risks to energy markets and national security.

Energy Lifelines in Tehran’s Crosshairs

Analysts say Iran could target a string of critical oil and gas facilities across the Gulf.

Potential targets include the massive Ruwais Refinery — the Middle East’s largest single-site refinery producing up to 922,000 barrels a day. Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq Oil Processing Facility, the world’s biggest crude stabilisation plant handling about seven million barrels daily, is also considered vulnerable.

Any sustained strike campaign could send shockwaves through global supply chains.

Gas Supplies Already Under Pressure

Iran has already demonstrated its reach. Missile strikes on Ras Laffan Industrial City — the world’s largest liquefied natural gas hub — caused significant damage, according to Qatari officials.

The complex processes around 20 per cent of global LNG exports. Attacks have already removed roughly 17 per cent of its capacity, equivalent to about 3.5 per cent of global supply.

Further strikes on facilities such as the Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex could tighten global gas markets even further.

Oil at $200? Markets Brace for Shock

Economists warn the consequences could be dramatic. Analysts at Citigroup say crude prices could surge to $200 a barrel if Iran launches broad attacks on energy infrastructure — far above the 2008 record of $147.

In Britain, motorists would feel the impact quickly. Diesel prices could climb to £2 a litre within weeks, surpassing the spike triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Gas prices have already doubled since the crisis erupted.

Water Systems Could Be the Hidden Target

Oil is not the only vulnerability. Iran could also strike desalination plants that supply drinking water to millions across the Gulf.

More than 400 facilities line the region’s coastline, producing roughly 42 per cent of the world’s desalinated water. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE depend on these plants for the majority of their drinking supply.

Experts warn any sustained attacks could spark a humanitarian emergency across one of the driest regions on Earth.

A Ticking Time Bomb for the Global Economy

Meanwhile the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a route carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil — has already sent energy prices surging.

Washington has signalled that further escalation remains possible. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the White House was leaving “all options on the table”, including strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

For global markets, the message is stark: the Gulf’s energy heartlands are now squarely on the front line.

How Iran could cripple the Gulf