Cambodia forecasts 5% growth in 2026 despite global pressure

Phnom Penh – Cambodia’s economy is expected to expand by 5% in 2026, slightly below the 5.2% growth projected for 2025, as the country grapples with external shocks and ongoing border tensions with Thailand.

Announcing the figures at a ceremony in Kandal province, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Aun Pornmoniroth said national GDP is set to reach $53.8 billion, with per capita income rising to $3,020. He stressed that Cambodia’s resilience since the pandemic continues despite “high uncertainties” in the global landscape, citing geopolitical confrontations and economic fragmentation.

The economy remains anchored in traditional sectors such as garments, footwear, travel goods, tourism, agriculture and real estate. Yet analysts argue that diversification is vital. Kin Phea, director general of the International Relations Institute of Cambodia, urged the government to prioritise agricultural technology, renewable energy, logistics and digital services, alongside investment in human capital and innovation.

Strengthening food and energy security, he added, will be key to long-term stability.

Recent trade figures highlight Cambodia’s manufacturing momentum. The Ministry of Commerce reported a 42% surge in tyre exports in the first quarter of 2026, worth $472 million, reflecting growing investment from international manufacturers. The country now hosts eight tyre factories across five special economic zones. Tyre exports reached $1.38 billion in 2025, up nearly 58% from the previous year.

Bicycle exports are also rising sharply. Shipments totalled $201.2 million between January and April 2026, a 44% increase year-on-year, with major markets including the United States, Europe, Britain, Canada and Australia.

Lim Heng, vice president of the Cambodia Chamber of Commerce, said the tyre boom supports both exports and rubber plantation activity, while Thong Mengdavid of the China-ASEAN Studies Center noted that bicycle growth reflects strong global demand.

With external headwinds mounting, Cambodia’s challenge will be to sustain growth by moving beyond low-value manufacturing. The government’s push into technology, renewable energy and logistics may prove decisive in securing resilience and competitiveness in the years ahead.

-2026-04-29