Margin debt is the big worry.......as soon as sentiment flips there's going to be carnage as people jump ship and try to salvage what they can.

The boat is being kept afloat, for the moment, on a sea of FOMO.

I've already sold half my US holding and diversified into European/Global ETFs and gold.

1 hour ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Most Americans are not depressed

True but depression is at record highs, 18.3% of U.S. adults said they currently had or were being treated for depression — about 47.8 million people. That's roughly 8 percentage points higher than 2015.

Technically correct, but fails to correctly see the trend line.

the country isn't bad because of Trump

Of course not, the American Association for the Blind blames Biden for all of Trump's failures, not Trump.

They would have to admit they were wrong, which is impossible in their tiny minds.

everyone I talk to daily there is doing well

Whatever you say, Bubble Boy--that's just a biased sample space fallacy...a broad conclusion about an entire population based on a sample that is skewed.

with the only negatives the rise in some prices, which happens all the time everywhere.

False.

Biden gas in 2025 < Trump gas 2026

Biden grocery store prices 2025 < Trump grocery store prices 2026

Biden electricity prices 2025 < Trump electricity prices 2026

large samople, and all of them are biased when they tell me how things are? Hardly, as they're the ones living it.

You are bad at math. That's why you're a Conservative. 😘

Bubble boy? Look who's calling the kettle black. I lived there 62 years, and return yearly. You haven't been there for decades. Do you actually think you know what's going on?

Yes, talking to a hundred people throughout the year, who also talk to hundreds more, is a large sample and not biased, as they're actually living there, while you again, haven't been there in decades so your opinion isn't valid whatsoever.

These are family members and friends I've known all my life, who still live there, in New York, New Jersey and Texas, 2 of the largest populated areas in the US, expensive in all aspects. They tell me the prices of food and gas, which fluctuate. These people are buyers there, families, and not a man living in Thailand who's out of the reality way too long.

The US stock market is booming on the strength of AI. Companies are making big profits while shedding jobs.

IMO the real barometer is the bond market, where yields are close to record levels on long-term bonds. It now takes more than $1 trillion pa to service America's debt.

The war with Iran has given Americans price rises of 25% for gasoline, 40% for diesel, and 70% for aviation fuel. Those increases cascade into the cost of everything -farming, delivery services, manufacturing.

Likewise, the trade war with Canada is forecast to cost the states bordering that country 340,000 jobs.

Every American knows who is responsible. The question is, can they do anything about it?

1 hour ago, save the frogs said:

Is that "Dr. Jiang"?

One of the biggest charlatans on Youtube.

He doesn't even have a Phd.

It should be illegal to put a "Dr." attached to your name without a medical degree or a Phd.

It's worse than that, I remember one guy touting ivermectin when his medical degree was in nursing.

6 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

The US stock market is booming on the strength of AI. Companies are making big profits while shedding jobs.

IMO the real barometer is the bond market, where yields are close to record levels on long-term bonds. It now takes more than $1 trillion pa to service America's debt.

The war with Iran has given Americans price rises of 25% for gasoline, 40% for diesel, and 70% for aviation fuel. Those increases cascade into the cost of everything -farming, delivery services, manufacturing.

Likewise, the trade war with Canada is forecast to cost the states bordering that country 340,000 jobs.

Every American knows who is responsible. The question is, can they do anything about it?

To be sure, the sitting President is the most recent culprit, but he's hardly the one "responsible" for the current state of affairs.

What to do about it? Appreciate the situation and try to stay out of the way of what might happen, if that matters to you. Personally, I'm taking no precautions other than not using any margin debt and investing all my spare cash in assets that will survive whatever is coming. If and when we see a significant correction, I'll be buying those real assets at fire sale prices.

41 minutes ago, fredwiggy said:

Bubble boy? Look who's calling the kettle black. I lived there 62 years, and return yearly. You haven't been there for decades. Do you actually think you know what's going on?

Yes, talking to a hundred people throughout the year, who also talk to hundreds more, is a large sample and not biased, as they're actually living there, while you again, haven't been there in decades so your opinion isn't valid whatsoever.

These are family members and friends I've known all my life, who still live there, in New York, New Jersey and Texas, 2 of the largest populated areas in the US, expensive in all aspects. They tell me the prices of food and gas, which fluctuate. These people are buyers there, families, and not a man living in Thailand who's out of the reality way too long.

Wrong. I've been there just two years ago.

A fentanyl drug addict robbed my house just 30 minutes before I arrived back. Apparently they came back last winter. You see, the DEA intentionally let 74,000 doses of fentanyl go into my home area because they were chasing "Mr Big". What a clown show.

I personally know how great Trump's America is going.

And yes, I'm perfectly happy to be in Thailand.

America is only okay if you have a good job to insulate yourself from the fentanyl festival campers on streets in almost every major city.

You can correctly blame Biden for looking the other way, but who are you going to blame the homeless addicts lounging on the streets of Oklahoma City? Red city, Red state.

Admit it. Fentanyl is a major problem in America and if you haven't heard yet, Canada, too.

Why can't Trump close the "open border" ?

I guess it's magically not open now and fentanyl is not flooding into America because there's a lot of sick people there thanks to conspiracy theories and Fox News poisoning everyone with propaganda for decades.

I'm planning to go back again for business this fall. Will let you know what it's like when I talk with people there who don't live in a Fox News bubble in Texas and Jersey.

Lovely people in your bubble no doubt, probably doing prescription opiods, par for the course?

1 minute ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Wrong. I've been there just two years ago.

A fentanyl drug addict robbed my house just 30 minutes before I arrived back. Apparently they came back last winter. You see, the DEA intentionally let 74,000 doses of fentanyl go into my home area because they were chasing "Mr Big". What a clown show.

I personally know how great Trump's America is going.

And yes, I'm perfectly happy to be in Thailand.

America is only okay if you have a good job to insulate yourself from the fentanyl festival campers on streets in almost every major city.

You can correctly blame Biden for looking the other way, but who are you going to blame the homeless addicts lounging on the streets of Oklahoma City? Red city, Red state.

Admit it. Fentanyl is a major problem in America and if you haven't heard yet, Canada, too.

Why can't Trump close the "open border" ?

I guess it's magically not open now and fentanyl is not flooding into America because there's a lot of sick people there thanks to conspiracy theories and Fox News poisoning everyone with propaganda for decades.

I'm planning to go back again for business this fall. Will let you know what it's like when I talk with people there who don't live in a Fox News bubble in Texas and Jersey.

Lovely people in your bubble no doubt, probably doing prescription opiods, par for the course?

You're one opinion doesn't match those hundreds. Biden, like trump and all the others, have hurt and helped the US, which is plainly obvious by searching what they have done. especially after their tenure ends. No place is okay unless you have money coming in regularly. Fentanyl has been a problem for years, and has gotten worse. My ex died because a doctor prescribed her fentanyl while taking Vicodin, Dilaudid or Morphine.

The doctors are the ones killing more than street drugs. Fentanyl needs to be curtailed, as it's extremely powerful and dangerous in the wrong hands. Assume again, as you have no idea just how many people I do relate with who live there, which includes police, border patrol, military, lawyers and business owners. Hundreds I sold guns to daily for years. And I have no friends or family but one that are taking hardcore drugs, as I was around them for those 62 years. The only one was my ex, where I saw firsthand what it does to a person, and how they get addicted.

I've never been in a bubble but outside actually interacting with people daily for over 60 years. It's never a good thing to join those who assume about others, as it puts you into one of those bubbles you talk about.

just move to slab city where living is free ,itas bit hot tho

1 hour ago, jas007 said:

To be sure, the sitting President is the most recent culprit, but he's hardly the one "responsible" for the current state of affairs.

What to do about it? Appreciate the situation and try to stay out of the way of what might happen, if that matters to you. Personally, I'm taking no precautions other than not using any margin debt and investing all my spare cash in assets that will survive whatever is coming. If and when we see a significant correction, I'll be buying those real assets at fire sale prices.

I don't have to do anything. Cash, term deposits, precious metals, and precious metal miners.

3 hours ago, save the frogs said:

Is that "Dr. Jiang"?

One of the biggest charlatans on Youtube.

He doesn't even have a Phd.

It should be illegal to put a "Dr." attached to your name without a medical degree or a Phd.

Yes.

And, also, a real YALE grad...haha....

The man is deranged.

Very scary, too.

A Yale grad, undergraduate level.

8 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I don't have to do anything. Cash, term deposits, precious metals, and precious metal miners.

That seems a little extreme, but I don't know anything about your situation. Just realize that none of what you think is safe is really safe. Do you physically hold your precious metals?

8 minutes ago, jas007 said:

That seems a little extreme, but I don't know anything about your situation. Just realize that none of what you think is safe is really safe. Do you physically hold your precious metals?

Properly holding one's precious jewels is more important than physically holding one's precious metals.

Always do a "carry" if not using it on yourself,test it on ppl you hate

I am impressed, there are really some posters here with "economic savvy", lenghty posts as a result, nothing wrong with that.

Call me the "simplyfier":

Aprox 6 years of global "bull markets", fuelled by silicone valley but mostly by low inteereest rates. = OVER.

Every living human in the US owes "the government" 117 thousand Dollars. When adding "private dept", the human brain can not qualify those numbers anymore.

Looking back, since 1945 the world ecomomy has grown by productivity gains but mostly by inflating the "credit bubble".

Me, the simplyfier says: No bull market has lasted forever. Be it stocks, wheat or porkbellies.

Exagerrated future (overpriced) "visions" will be corrected by the same market forces that today claim "the limit is the sky".

Greetings, the "simpyfier".

9 minutes ago, swissie said:

I am impressed, there are really some posters here with "economic savvy", lenghty posts as a result, nothing wrong with that.

Call me the "simplyfier":

Aprox 6 years of global "bull markets", fuelled by silicone valley but mostly by low inteereest rates. = OVER.

Every living human in the US owes "the government" 117 thousand Dollars. When adding "private dept", the human brain can not qualify those numbers anymore.

Looking back, since 1945 the world ecomomy has grown by productivity gains but mostly by inflating the "credit bubble".

Me, the simplyfier says: No bull market has lasted forever. Be it stocks, wheat or porkbellies.

Exagerrated future (overpriced) "visions" will be corrected by the same market forces that today claim "the limit is the sky".

Greetings, the "simpyfier".

Please allow me to simply your simplification, further:

No matter how hard they try, they will NEVER be able to make a pork-belly out of a sow's ear.

They are dreamers.

13 hours ago, Wingate said:

Your messiah is on pace to add $10,000,000,000,000 to the National Debt during Term 2, if he survives (Polymarket and Kalshi say "No"). Combine that with the $8,400,000,000,000 he loaded on in Trump 1.0, and the serial bankrupt-er will have presided over 40% of the total US Debt built up by the other 45 Presidents.

If you truly understood the federal budget, you would know the lion's share is under cruise control via entitlement spending. Mandatory spending is close to 70% of the federal budget and is growing due to the aging population. For instance, Social Security went cash-flow negative in 2010, and Congress has yet to do anything about it. Here is a graph from a 2010 GAO report. Everyone in the government has known about these projections for decades.

11 hours ago, Priorexpat said:

Can the OP please post their degrees in economics? It's like this riclag guy and all his nonsense which originates from no actual education. Just Breitbart right wing nonsense.

Your brain is not trained to the conclusions you present. Stop already.

Can you post yours?

4 hours ago, jas007 said:

That seems a little extreme, but I don't know anything about your situation. Just realize that none of what you think is safe is really safe. Do you physically hold your precious metals?

Most people don't hoard their Gold under the mattress. Rather in Bank Safety Boxes.

Problem: On a forced "Bank holiday" the doors will be closed for everybody. No access to any Bank Safety Boxes.

In case of an "electric braekdown", the doors of the Bank could not be opened, unless using a crowbar. With the approval of the bank manager of course.😄

22 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Two factors that must be considered here, number one what goes up must come down, and number two the economy is cyclical it always has been and it always will be.

When you add to that the fact that the stock market is over inflated to a stunning degree, price to earning ratios are way out of whack, and the debt load is currently unsustainable, you have a potential recipe for disaster.

During times of prosperity (or shall I say inflated stock markets) people tend to get somewhat dizzy and they forget about history. Whether or not there will be a full-scale depression nobody really knows but there is going to be a monster correction. And it's not going to happen too far down the road.

I would not be surprised if the Dow dropped to between 5, 000 and 10,000 points, and I would not be surprised if real estate prices dropped by more than half in the western world.

This is not a doomsday scenario this is just a cold hard look at facts and reality. Dream all you want about the economy going ever upward and never correcting, but that's never happened in the history of mankind.

The DOW has dropped approx 30% from it's brief peak 2 years ago, what has happened to real estate?

9 minutes ago, saintdomingo said:

The DOW has dropped approx 30% from it's brief peak 2 years ago, what has happened to real estate?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its all-time record closing high of 54,085.88 points on August 4, 2026.

If you were invested, you'd know.

12 minutes ago, saintdomingo said:

The DOW has dropped approx 30% from it's brief peak 2 years ago, what has happened to real estate?

6 minutes ago, TedG said:

Please show the part of the curve, to the left.

Thank you.

There must be some sort of correlation with petroleum extraction, ....right?

This curve will continue to rise, if energy-cost goes down....probably.

Maybe there will be no depression, and there probably will not be, IF the cost of energy continues to plunge.

I do not trust this graphic, but, it only makes sense that if the cost of energy continues to go down, then.....one can hardly enjoy a good depression.

The state and future of the economy is far too complex for economists.

Only priests know what God will do next.

30 minutes ago, saintdomingo said:

The DOW has dropped approx 30% from it's brief peak 2 years ago, what has happened to real estate?

What are you going on about the Dow is 200 points off its historic peak.

The real estate crash is coming just give it a little time.

3 minutes ago, GammaGlobulin said:

Please show the part of the curve, to the left.

Thank you.

No, you are free to look it up yourself.

On 8/30/2026 at 11:02 PM, GammaGlobulin said:

Dear Folks,

Arguably, most Americans are already depressed, and on meds, with good reason.

So, PSYCHOLOGICALLY Speaking, America is already in a Great Depression.

But let us confine our thoughts to whether or not the USA is headed for another Great Depression, ECONOMICALLY Speaking.

For one thing, USA housing prices are ridiculously high.

These days, shoe-box-size houses in dumpy neighborhoods in places like San Francisco, what I would call RABBIT-WARRENS, are selling in the MILLIONS, and with many homeowners suffering bad neighbors, too, like Clammy Sammy.  Obviously, due to the neighbors, the Russian Hill neighborhood is nothing more than a chocolate covered slum.

Now, in Russian Hill, one can expect RICH-FREAKS as neighbors, maybe like this duo:

WEALTH DISPARITY will be just ONE of MANY drivers.....OBVIOUSLY.

Is San Francisco sort of a microcosm of the rest of America, other than Maine, and Dubuque, Iowa?  The ENTIRE USA Housing Inventory is priced Sky-High; and housing developments full of neighbors nobody wants, not to mention the policing in such places being carried out by paramilitary in full combat gear.

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Have things gotten out of hand in America?

And, really, objectively speaking, what is the writing on the wall, in terms of when the USA will be hit with a major depression, one which will make the 2008 crash seem like a minor burp.

What are the factors we see that make the next depression unavoidable?

Nobody enjoys a good depression, and yet they happen whether we like them or not.

So why is this happening now, meaning the crazy housing prices?

And, has money become almost worthless, compared to the value of money 40 years ago?

And, how will people live when this next major depression begins to really take hold?

Do you think ITR is on target, but off by about 8 years?

Will the next depression hit earlier than ITR predicts?

Why?

https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/top-5-causes-2030s-great-depression

Are you ready?

Best regards,

Gamma

Important Note: I am ready, because I choose NOT to live in places like San Francisco, where things will get WAY out of hand, in a hurry. If we think that things in SF are already looney, they are not. They are not compared to what is yet to come, and soon.

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Of course it is.

I'm a little less precise about the timing.

23 hours ago, jas007 said:

Nobody wants to see that, but don't pretend it isn't possible.

I won't pretend that it's possible a massive asteroid is going to slam the earth and make dinosaurs of us all.

Nope, economic models have us escaping the nightmare that is Trump without the huge stock plunge. Our deficit will be over the top but our trading partners will come back after dufus insulting everyone is gone. Childish imbecile of a President, Lake America everyone, whooohooo. What a dumb**

His Venezuela oil move depends on how many US companies want to invest millions only to see new Venezuela regime nix it. Total gamble for those companies, guessing they are not going to bet on wig wearing orange dufus.

Edited 21 hours ago21 hr by Priorexpat
spelling

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

What are you going on about the Dow is 200 points off its historic peak.

The real estate crash is coming just give it a little time.

Sorry, not an investor for many years now, foolishly gotthat figure off ...... Anyway sorry to have bothered you, it wasn't a snarky question honest.

If things go really bad, the Donald will end up in provoking WW3 and then showing up to sell the useless US made weapons...Weapons that obviously are useless against Iran's cheap homemade drones and missiles.

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

What are you going on about the Dow is 200 points off its historic peak.

The real estate crash is coming just give it a little time.

It's already starting in many areas. Silly home prices have nowhere to go but down. Someone has to buy the houses for sale, and unless Joe Sixpack starts making substantially more money, current asking prices are out of line. To be sure, there are certain areas of the country where one can still find affordable housing, but in much of the country, sellers are in for a rude awakening.

There's a thing called life, and people aren't going to sacrifice that for mortgage payments. It's not hard to imagine all the other costs . Insurance, property taxes, maintenance, utilities, transportation, education food, clothing, and so on. That all can add up to more than people make.

Seven years ago, I sold a house to some people who thought they were getting a good deal, no doubt. I remember sitting at the closing table signing documents and wondering who was being stupid. Anyway, every so often I check to see if they're still there. Guess what? They couldn't hack it and had to bail after almost a million dollars worth of renovations. They may have come out even, but they certainly didn't make any money. Many people won't be so lucky.

9 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Silly home prices have nowhere to go but down.

USA, China, and Hong Kong houses are the new tulips.

Or, do you trust this guy?:

BEFORE

AFTER

who's laughing now?

You just can't take it with you, on the way to a beheading, by the ChiComs.....