One In Five Thais Facing Economic Problems

[Prakanong]

The Thaksin mantra of "borrow, borrow, easy credit, spend, spend, buy" comes home to roost...

And westerners have no debts!

If only Thai people could be more like the sensible westerner, the world would be a better place...............lol.

Total UK personal debt

Total UK personal debt at the end of July 2007 stood at £1,355bn. The growth rate increased to 10.1% for the previous 12 months which equates to an increase of £117bn.

Total secured lending on homes at the end of July 2007 stood at £1,140bn. This has increased 11.0% in the last 12 months.

Total consumer credit lending to individuals in July 2007 was £214bn. This has increased 5.3% in the last 12 months.

Total lending in July 2007 grew by £10.3bn. Secured lending grew by £9.2bn in the month. Consumer credit lending grew by £1.1bn.

Average household debt in the UK is £8,856 (excluding mortgages). This figure increases to £20,600 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan.

Average household debt in the UK is £56,000 (including mortgages).

Average owed by every UK adult is £28,550 (including mortgages). This grew by £210 last month.

Average outstanding mortgage for the 11.8m households who currently have mortgages is £96,560

Average interest paid by each household on their total debt is approximately £3,700 each year (this equates to 9% of take home pay).

Average consumer borrowing via credit cards, motor and retail finance deals, overdrafts and unsecured personal loans has risen to £4,515 per average UK adult at the end of July 2007.

Britain's personal debt is increasing by £1 million every 4 minutes.

Yep, these Thais could sure do with being like westerners!

It is at a all time high in the UK and some other western coutries too.

Its about the ability to service the debt and how liquid you are I suppose.

Can UK debtors srvice their debt more readily than the Thai's - have they the potential to earn or achieve the assets any easier?

I suppose it depends which segment of the economy you are in - cash or subsistence?

[Maigo6]

not same, same for Thailand... but come and visit sometime, and you'll find that out.

Haha.................Yeah, someday I'll have to visit Thailand.

Edited September 11, 2007 by Maigo6

[nick2k]

ultimately, the problem with the average thais not having enough money to spend is not thaksin, nor the companies that they work for, it is their own fault for not asking for more, and demanding it.

if you won't stand up for your rights, then, whom do you expect to do it for you?

an example....

if you work at the fast food places, you on average get like 25 baht per hour. for one day, if you work 10 hours, you get 250 baht. the owner of the fast food place is probably bringing in AT LEAST a hundred orders an hour. if an order is 100 baht, that's 10,000 baht gross per hour. 10 hours, and the place is grossing AT LEAST 100,000 baht A DAY. since fast food joints probably have 30% profit margins, my guess is - they are netting at least 30,000 baht a day. with a crew of 10, 2500 baht salary to get at least 30,000 baht a day. well, you figure it out.

thais have no one else to blame but themselves.

thais need to learn how to unify for their own benefit.

[John K]

An interesting topic, but once again I can see part of the reason. If you have been following the big picture you will see Thaksin has been working on this to secure his power. He has shown his superior business abilities can make things happen. When compared to who is driving now there is no question Thaksin is the better of the two. However this also sets up a dependancy on Thaksin. If you think of how a drug pusher gets new buyers by giving a few free samples, this is no different.

Thaksin certainly gave the country a taste of what money is like outside of Thailand, and that was a sweet taste for many. Now the economy has slumped and requires more infusions of international money to remain healthy. Hence we now have withdrawal symptoms as Thailand slips back out of the world market economy. Couple that with the less than friendly business and visa laws and you can start to see the Thai Achilles heel of not thinking things out to conclusion. You don’t put rocks in a sinking boat.

As for corruption being a low number, that is most certainly because mostly it is invisible but we know it is there just like the wind. Because we don’t see it in our face we give it a lower number.

[farang prince]

Thais...money...savings....They don't belong in the same sentence. For most Thais, the concept of "sufficiency economy" simply means "if you got it, spend it."

[Prakanong]

An interesting topic, but once again I can see part of the reason. If you have been following the big picture you will see Thaksin has been working on this to secure his power. He has shown his superior business abilities can make things happen. When compared to who is driving now there is no question Thaksin is the better of the two. However this also sets up a dependancy on Thaksin. If you think of how a drug pusher gets new buyers by giving a few free samples, this is no different.

Thaksin certainly gave the country a taste of what money is like outside of Thailand, and that was a sweet taste for many. Now the economy has slumped and requires more infusions of international money to remain healthy. Hence we now have withdrawal symptoms as Thailand slips back out of the world market economy. Couple that with the less than friendly business and visa laws and you can start to see the Thai Achilles heel of not thinking things out to conclusion. You don't put rocks in a sinking boat.

As for corruption being a low number, that is most certainly because mostly it is invisible but we know it is there just like the wind. Because we don't see it in our face we give it a lower number.

You really are a one trick pony - how about some original thought.

Seeing as its September 11th are you blaming Thaksin for this as well - change the record or is this the only one playing in your NEP haunts - I bet you drive Dave the Rave to sleep.

[Prakanong]

Thais...money...savings....They don't belong in the same sentence. For most Thais, the concept of "sufficiency economy" simply means "if you got it, spend it."

Has anybody got the table of global savings rates say since 2000?

The far east usually has much higher ration's than the west - how does Thailand figure out?

The problem in Thailand though is that there is a certain economic segment that just does not have spare cash to save - even some of those that start earning that cash who come from the environment where they did not have it then do not save it - its spend, spend as you say.

I have seen a few notable exceptions but most of them live hand to mouth.

[ColPyat]

In the 25 years I have been visting thailand I would say things now are not worse than at any other time. In fact around 98, 99 it was probably more dire.

Big difference.

98/99 was just after the financial crises, but no political problems.

Now we may be slipping into a financial crises (or not), and there are huge unsolved (unsolvable?) political problems, and there is violence in the air.

[John K]

An interesting topic, but once again I can see part of the reason. If you have been following the big picture you will see Thaksin has been working on this to secure his power. He has shown his superior business abilities can make things happen. When compared to who is driving now there is no question Thaksin is the better of the two. However this also sets up a dependancy on Thaksin. If you think of how a drug pusher gets new buyers by giving a few free samples, this is no different.

Thaksin certainly gave the country a taste of what money is like outside of Thailand, and that was a sweet taste for many. Now the economy has slumped and requires more infusions of international money to remain healthy. Hence we now have withdrawal symptoms as Thailand slips back out of the world market economy. Couple that with the less than friendly business and visa laws and you can start to see the Thai Achilles heel of not thinking things out to conclusion. You don't put rocks in a sinking boat.

As for corruption being a low number, that is most certainly because mostly it is invisible but we know it is there just like the wind. Because we don't see it in our face we give it a lower number.

You really are a one trick pony - how about some original thought.

Seeing as its September 11th are you blaming Thaksin for this as well - change the record or is this the only one playing in your NEP haunts - I bet you drive Dave the Rave to sleep.

And your counter point is? I can’t seem to find your counter point in your post, but there are plenty of flames.

[Prakanong]

An interesting topic, but once again I can see part of the reason. If you have been following the big picture you will see Thaksin has been working on this to secure his power. He has shown his superior business abilities can make things happen. When compared to who is driving now there is no question Thaksin is the better of the two. However this also sets up a dependancy on Thaksin. If you think of how a drug pusher gets new buyers by giving a few free samples, this is no different.

Thaksin certainly gave the country a taste of what money is like outside of Thailand, and that was a sweet taste for many. Now the economy has slumped and requires more infusions of international money to remain healthy. Hence we now have withdrawal symptoms as Thailand slips back out of the world market economy. Couple that with the less than friendly business and visa laws and you can start to see the Thai Achilles heel of not thinking things out to conclusion. You don't put rocks in a sinking boat.

As for corruption being a low number, that is most certainly because mostly it is invisible but we know it is there just like the wind. Because we don't see it in our face we give it a lower number.

You really are a one trick pony - how about some original thought.

Seeing as its September 11th are you blaming Thaksin for this as well - change the record or is this the only one playing in your NEP haunts - I bet you drive Dave the Rave to sleep.

And your counter point is? I can't seem to find your counter point in your post, but there are plenty of flames.

No flames at all my good man- only pointing out that no matter the problem in Thailand you come along with your own rather peculiar catch all answer - its Thaksin.

A bit of waffle about following the big picture, its the same for anything - then no analysis etc and then the Thakisin is to blame thesis.

Thailand slipping out of the world market economy - how where and why - which sectors etc?

What are the Thai household gearing ation's for the last 10 yeas then - how about their liquidity and their savings rates - look at those pre-post Thaksin etc and come up with your analysis.

[John K]

Actually I have been saying this right along, perhaps you can spot my reference phrase “The man that Can” in several of my posts. Also I am not fully placing the blame on Thaksin, read it again.

World market economy, well lets see... Non Thai companies pulling out going to Cambodia, Vietnam and so on, closings of garment factories and so on would be a fair start. Much of that was encouraged by factors other than Thaksin, in fact most of that is post Thaksin.

I am still waiting for your counter point and not a series of counter questions.

[hammered]

I think ever since I have been in Thailand at least one fifth of the people have been facing economic problems and I dont think that number has ever changed.

[Prakanong]

Actually I have been saying this right along, perhaps you can spot my reference phrase "The man that Can" in several of my posts. Also I am not fully placing the blame on Thaksin, read it again.

World market economy, well lets see... Non Thai companies pulling out going to Cambodia, Vietnam and so on, closings of garment factories and so on would be a fair start. Much of that was encouraged by factors other than Thaksin, in fact most of that is post Thaksin.

I am still waiting for your counter point and not a series of counter questions.

So some companies moving operations to cheaper locations amounts to Thailand slipping out of the world economy - utter hyperbole and laughable.

Counterpoint to what - you have not made any points!

Your horizon is very shot - post 2000 arrival are we?

[John K]

Still waiting.

[Prakanong]

Still waiting.

So am I and the rest of the board for you to say something different other than "Thaksin done it"

Its the same old every time, it starts with something like, "Big picture blah blah blah it Thaksin blah blah blah, I can see blah blah blah"

As I said you have not made any points to counter - it is waffle.

This is while you posit the thought provoking hypothesis that Thailand has dropped out of the global economy - whoosh laughable!!!!

Thai's did not know about money outside of thailand until the Thaksin era - are you really positing that????

[Old Man River]

An interesting topic, but once again I can see part of the reason. If you have been following the big picture you will see Thaksin has been working on this to secure his power. He has shown his superior business abilities can make things happen. When compared to who is driving now there is no question Thaksin is the better of the two. However this also sets up a dependancy on Thaksin. If you think of how a drug pusher gets new buyers by giving a few free samples, this is no different.

Thaksin certainly gave the country a taste of what money is like outside of Thailand, and that was a sweet taste for many. Now the economy has slumped and requires more infusions of international money to remain healthy. Hence we now have withdrawal symptoms as Thailand slips back out of the world market economy. Couple that with the less than friendly business and visa laws and you can start to see the Thai Achilles heel of not thinking things out to conclusion. You don't put rocks in a sinking boat.

As for corruption being a low number, that is most certainly because mostly it is invisible but we know it is there just like the wind. Because we don't see it in our face we give it a lower number.

You really are a one trick pony - how about some original thought.

Seeing as its September 11th are you blaming Thaksin for this as well - change the record or is this the only one playing in your NEP haunts - I bet you drive Dave the Rave to sleep.

And your counter point is? I can't seem to find your counter point in your post, but there are plenty of flames.

No flames at all my good man- only pointing out that no matter the problem in Thailand you come along with your own rather peculiar catch all answer - its Thaksin.

A bit of waffle about following the big picture, its the same for anything - then no analysis etc and then the Thakisin is to blame thesis.

Thailand slipping out of the world market economy - how where and why - which sectors etc?

What are the Thai household gearing ation's for the last 10 yeas then - how about their liquidity and their savings rates - look at those pre-post Thaksin etc and come up with your analysis.

Let me help the guy (not that I can expect anything in return).

During the boom times of the early 1990's, Thai's lived from paycheck to paycheck as money was always just around the corner. During this period, the savings rate consisted primarily of public (government) savings. Hence, any savings rate you find for the early to mid 1990's period will reflect a high amount of public savings and a very low amount of private savings.

Following 1997, this all changed. The government began running deficits from the bailouts of the financial sector (and began issuing bonds which developed the capital markets), while consumers, fearful of spending, began saving. This carried on until Thaksin came in. With consumers now saving and knowing that consumer spending was important to the economy, Thaksin instituted a period of easy credit which was supported by the finance ministry. However, as consumer debt picked up at alarming rates, the BOT began issuing warnings. Still, the Thaksin led government continued easy credit with it being known that should an economic downturn occur, the potential for increased consumer defaults would be high. Most probably from Thaksin's point of view, an economic downturn was not going to occur due to the huge amount of infrastructural spending that was planned (funded, in part, by privatizations).

Politics aside, at the end of the day, Martin summed it all up best when he asked the question:

Did nobody at all blame their own incompetence at managing their money?

[Mid]

Did nobody at all blame their own incompetence at managing their money?

and back to the education system we go ............................

[hammered]

Did nobody at all blame their own incompetence at managing their money?

and back to the education system we go ............................

And sadly the last thing most Thai politicians want is the education of those who vote for them so unquestioningly improved..... so back to the politics we go.

[Prakanong]

"Politics aside, at the end of the day, Martin summed it all up best when he asked the question:

Did nobody at all blame their own incompetence at managing their money? "

This is not just in Thailand though - in the USA now both a mix of left and right commentators are asking the Govt to bail out the sub-prime lenders.

I would be interested in household savings rates though to compare with other countries in the region - The IMF or somebody must produce these?

[Bill97]

Did nobody at all blame their own incompetence at managing their money?

and back to the education system we go ............................

And sadly the last thing most Thai politicians want is the education of those who vote for them so unquestioningly improved..... so back to the politics we go.

Same for the head of the Fed and other central banks, current and recent, the rating agencies, the wizzards of Wall Street, their savy customers around the world and all those bilked and to be bilked by them, blame their own incompetence, education and politics. Same story, different scope.

[Old Man River]

I would be interested in household savings rates though to compare with other countries in the region - The IMF or somebody must produce these?

Available in Thailand. Google Thai Pages for "Thailand Savings Rate" and you will get a report from Chula. It shows savings rate/GDP. Also, on the same google page I see the BOT has the data as well. ADB, IMF etc. should have it as well.

Have fun!

Edited September 11, 2007 by Old Man River

[soundman]

Did nobody at all blame their own incompetence at managing their money?

and back to the education system we go ............................

And sadly the last thing most Thai politicians want is the education of those who vote for them so unquestioningly improved..... so back to the politics we go.

That is why we have the "rote" system of learning.

"You will learn only what we deem necessary for you to know & any free thought you may have will quickly land you in hot water!"

Free thought by the masses equals dissent. A big no no in this country.

A great shame for this country.

Soundman.

[lazeeboy]

Did nobody at all blame their own incompetence at managing their money?

and back to the education system we go ............................

And sadly the last thing most Thai politicians want is the education of those who vote for them so unquestioningly improved..... so back to the politics we go.

That is why we have the "rote" system of learning.

"You will learn only what we deem necessary for you to know & any free thought you may have will quickly land you in hot water!"

Free thought by the masses equals dissent. A big no no in this country.

A great shame for this country.

Soundman.

thais have always lived for today ,much like the rest of the world at the moment ........

[Solosiam]

This would probably be at least the same ratio as in just about any other country in the world.

[Martin]

Maigo6, in post #25, quoted a report about debt in the UK.

At one point it said:

"Total secured lending on homes at the end of July 2007 stood at £1,140bn. This has increased 11.0% in the last 12 months."

But the vast majority of that 'security' is equity in a house. That will have been calculated on the basis of recent prices for similar houses, in most cases.

But house-selling is on the verge of grinding to a halt, whereupon those desperate to sell will drop their price considerably, and there will be a lot of people finding themselves in negative equity.

Even if 20% of Thais are facing economic problems, the other 80% are probably better situated to face the coming world recession than an awful lot of the 'property-owning democracy' in the UK.

[somtaamgaiyang]

Maigo6, in post #25, quoted a report about debt in the UK.

At one point it said:

"Total secured lending on homes at the end of July 2007 stood at £1,140bn. This has increased 11.0% in the last 12 months."

But the vast majority of that 'security' is equity in a house. That will have been calculated on the basis of recent prices for similar houses, in most cases.

But house-selling is on the verge of grinding to a halt, whereupon those desperate to sell will drop their price considerably, and there will be a lot of people finding themselves in negative equity.

Even if 20% of Thais are facing economic problems, the other 80% are probably better situated to face the coming world recession than an awful lot of the 'property-owning democracy' in the UK.

Negative equity, that awful phrase. Lending practices have changed a little in the UK, however, are nowhere near as lax as in the US. There is a big difference between selling your house for less than you want for it, not being able to make the repayment and actually suffering negative equity. I don't see it in the UK.

[Prakanong]

This would probably be at least the same ratio as in just about any other country in the world.

I think you may be wrong in that assertion

Look at the table at the bottom of this paper - http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/papers/pap...f/1999/9904.pdf

It is 1967 to 1998 but the range is from 1.6 to over 41%. Thailands at that time was circa 26% which was pretty much in line with its competitors in the region.

USA was circa 17% out of interest

I wonder what it is now and how it compares - i am still looking for data.

[Prakanong]

While looking for domestic savings rates i came across this document from not long before the Asian Crash

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/pdf/112596a.pdf

[Khun Jean]

Last month i sold one of my apartments in Amsterdam, the Netherlands,

At the notary signing the transfer documents the notary said, you are one of the few these last months that actually has made some money. Most of the sales ended up for people still owing a part to the bank.

I found that very disturbing because nowhere else in the news did i hear about it.

Seems like a bubble is about to burst in more than a few countries.

[Khun Jean]

Adding some Thai experiences.

Two sisters in law are now working in Singapore.

The hairdresser shop they have has a lot less customers and more customers using credit.

It came to a point where they were unable to pay for their children education and houses.

Nothing fancy about the houses just your normal townhouse.

One year ago, they were still doing ok.

Even in my small group of people i know i can see that they are having it a lot more difficult.

And most of them are Bangkok middleclass with office jobs and small shops.

Everything is getting more expensive while their saleries did not go up.