Ukraine’s military intelligence says the Kremlin may be preparing a dramatic escalation in the global energy war — potentially sabotaging its own gas infrastructure to blame Kyiv and pressure Europe into easing sanctions. The alleged plan, described as a coordinated political and intelligence campaign, aims to manufacture an energy crisis across the EU. By deepening shortages and driving up prices, Moscow could attempt to force European governments back toward Russian gas. A strategy built on accusations of “energy terrorism” According to Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, the plan revolves around publicly accusing Ukraine of attacks on key export pipelines. Those claims have already surfaced at the United Nations Security Council, where Russia’s envoy Vasily Nebenzya accused Kyiv of targeting Russian energy infrastructure. Russian media amplified his allegations that drones struck compressor stations in southern Russia linked to gas exports to Europe. Pipelines at the centre of a high-stakes energy gamble Intelligence officials warn Moscow may suspend or damage key energy routes, including the TurkStream gas pipeline and the Blue Stream gas pipeline beneath the Black Sea. Another potential target is the Tengiz–Novorossiysk oil pipeline, a major route for crude supplies destined for international markets. The goal would be to trigger immediate shortages, spike global prices and undermine Western energy companies operating in the region. Putin’s warning raises suspicions The intelligence assessment points to remarks made by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a February meeting of the Federal Security Service board. At the time, Putin warned of alleged plots to destroy pipelines in the Black Sea — comments Kyiv now interprets as laying the groundwork for a potential false-flag operation. Europe caught between sanctions and energy pressure If supply disruptions drive up prices, the Kremlin believes political pressure inside the EU could intensify. Ukraine says Moscow’s calculation is simple: a severe energy squeeze might push the European Commission to soften sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports. Oil revenues already rebounding The warning comes as Russia’s energy income begins climbing again. Recent data cited by Bloomberg shows Moscow’s daily oil export revenues have surged from around $135m earlier this year to roughly $270m — approaching levels last seen in early 2022. For Kyiv, the stakes are clear: an engineered energy crisis could hand the Kremlin both financial relief and geopolitical leverage at the same time. Russia may strike its own gas pipelines as part of energy blackmail plan, intelligence warns
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