Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

[Gary A]

"it is predicted to be true that the US-Dollar will fetch 45 Baht by year end"

"perhaps not 45 but i think 40 Baht"

have you people bought rubber sheets in the meantime to protect your mattresses?

A (FORMER) good friend of mine thought he would be clever. He actually mailed me an adult diaper and told me where to buy them. I immediately emailed him and warned him that I hoped he wouldn't end up a diaper short because of his generosity.

[PeaceBlondie]

It's extraordinary what type of behavior people have been conditioned to expect from their government. I don't know, but I would love someone to explain it to me. One thing I do know for certain, the very banks the government is buying interests in, with the peoples money, are short this market. Yeah, that makes sense.?

Government takes the place of God, so we worship and serve it, even kill for it. It is legal incest, and legal murder. We trust it and expect it to protect us. When it does not kill us, it gives us shit. So we eat the shit and smile. Not unlike....certain Asian countries.

[lannarebirth]

Government takes the place of God, so we worship and serve it, even kill for it. It is legal incest, and legal murder. We trust it and expect it to protect us. When it does not kill us, it gives us shit. So we eat the shit and smile. Not unlike....certain Asian countries.

AMEN ! It's a mindbender PB.

Coming Soon: The 600 Trillion Derivatives Emergency Meeting

http://seekingalpha.com/article/99674-comi...ergency-meeting

[LaoPo]

Government takes the place of God, so we worship and serve it, even kill for it. It is legal incest, and legal murder. We trust it and expect it to protect us. When it does not kill us, it gives us shit. So we eat the shit and smile. Not unlike....certain Asian countries.

AMEN ! It's a mindbender PB.

Coming Soon: The 600 Trillion Derivatives Emergency Meeting

http://seekingalpha.com/article/99674-comi...ergency-meeting

I feel not ashamed to admit I can't even imagine the consequences of this 600 TRILLION "Derivative financial instruments" MONSTER and how it will affect the individual countries and markets.

Are you able to explain that to me -in simple wordings- (and maybe to some other members) ?

The LATEST OFFICIAL FIGURES (in .PDF) is on page 108 of 115*** and it's impossible for a layman to comprehend the content.

http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qa0809.pdf#page=108

Derivative instruments: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_security

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Government takes the place of God, so we worship and serve it, even kill for it. It is legal incest, and legal murder. We trust it and expect it to protect us. When it does not kill us, it gives us shit. So we eat the shit and smile. Not unlike....certain Asian countries.

AMEN ! It's a mindbender PB.

Coming Soon: The 600 Trillion Derivatives Emergency Meeting

http://seekingalpha.com/article/99674-comi...ergency-meeting

I feel not ashamed to admit I can't even imagine the consequences of this 600 TRILLION "Derivative financial instruments" MONSTER and how it will affect the individual countries and markets.

Are you able to explain that to me -in simple wordings- (and maybe to some other members) ?

The LATEST OFFICIAL FIGURES (in .PDF) is on page 108 of 115*** and it's impossible for a layman to comprehend the content.

http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qa0809.pdf#page=108

Derivative instruments: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_security

LaoPo

I haven't got enough fingers and toes to appreciate how big that number is Lao Po. i do understand that alot of it is self cancelling if counterparties can be found and matched up. IF this risk is as great as claimed, my only imagining is that markets would need to be closed for a period of time to pare these derivatives back in an orderly fashion. Iceland and Pakistan closed their markets and they both tanked when re-opened.

I've been reading these stories on goldbug sites for years, and never disagreed with their premise, but in markets, none of that matters until the day it matters and sometimes that day never comes. Maybe that day is upon us, I don't know. My small mind can grasp that it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to fully stock the pantry and get a few bucks out of the bank to have close to hand.

[flying]

Maybe that day is upon us, I don't know. My small mind can grasp that it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to fully stock the pantry and get a few bucks out of the bank to have close to hand.

We actually started a large garden & have quite a bit that way.

I have been pondering money out of the bank. Not just a little but a lot.

I know I can hide it fine but fear fire

[VegasVic]

It's extraordinary what type of behavior people have been conditioned to expect from their government. I don't know, but I would love someone to explain it to me. One thing I do know for certain, the very banks the government is buying interests in, with the peoples money, are short this market. Yeah, that makes sense.?

Government takes the place of God, so we worship and serve it, even kill for it. It is legal incest, and legal murder. We trust it and expect it to protect us. When it does not kill us, it gives us shit. So we eat the shit and smile. Not unlike....certain Asian countries.

P.B. Very shortly the U.S. government might not only take the place of God but could indeed become God I mean after all, everywhere I go I hear that Barrack Hussein Obama is the Messiah

[Naam]

It's extraordinary what type of behavior people have been conditioned to expect from their government. I don't know, but I would love someone to explain it to me. One thing I do know for certain, the very banks the government is buying interests in, with the peoples money, are short this market. Yeah, that makes sense.?

Government takes the place of God, so we worship and serve it, even kill for it. It is legal incest, and legal murder. We trust it and expect it to protect us. When it does not kill us, it gives us shit. So we eat the shit and smile. Not unlike....certain Asian countries.

P.B. Very shortly the U.S. government might not only take the place of God but could indeed become God I mean after all, everywhere I go I hear that Barrack Hussein Obama is the Messiah

but, unlike some new-born christian, he does not claim that God talks to him

[harrry]

but, unlike some new-born christian, he does not claim that God talks to him

But does he talk to himself.

[PeaceBlondie]

Last night, I got into this long debate with a close farang friend who thinks primarily in favor of capitalism, Republican presidents and congresses, large and small businesses, etc. He began not by blaming FDR or the war in Vietnam, but with Jimmy Carter, the C0mmunity Reinvestment Act back in the 1970's, and the Clinton administration's insistence that every last bad credit risk must be given a mortgage with no money down. Perhaps these mandates were translated directly from Russian to English.

I said that if this incredible financial tsunami were only caused by a few hundred thousand Americans defaulting on their home mortgages - I granted him a maximum of a million foreclosures among a nation of a hundred million families, many of whom rent and do not own - it would only account for maybe a million homes times an average loss of $20,000. Seeing as how he and I are both former math(s) teachers, we agreed the losses due to defaulted mortgages by bad credit risks would be no more than $20 billion. I reminded him that Paulson asked for 700 billion just to bail out banks after he had wasted many hundreds of billions on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Also, that the Europeans had just paid hundreds of billions of Euros more to rescue failing banks all the way from Iceland to .....Bulgaria? I asked him about hungry,m greedy brokers, derivatives, the effects of financial deregulation, and we stopped for a cigarette break.

I cannot believe that the G7 is having emergency meetings just because some bad mortgages were given to a few bad credit risks. I think my Mama used to say, "There is something rotten in Denmark." Not just in Peoria. How will this play out in Penzance, Paris, and Prussia?

[LaoPo]

Seeing as how he and I are both former math(s) teachers,

we agreed the losses due to defaulted mortgages by bad credit risks would be no more than $20 billion. I reminded him that Paulson asked for 700 billion just to bail out banks after he had wasted many hundreds of billions on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Also, that the Europeans had just paid hundreds of billions of Euros more to rescue failing banks all the way from Iceland to .....Bulgaria? I asked him about hungry,m greedy brokers, derivatives, the effects of financial deregulation, and we stopped for a cigarette break.

I cannot believe that the G7 is having emergency meetings just because some bad mortgages were given to a few bad credit risks. I think my Mama used to say, "There is something rotten in Denmark." Not just in Peoria. How will this play out in Penzance, Paris, and Prussia?

Maybe both of you were approaching the world wide crisis a little too mathematical. There's more to it...

The BBC website has some very good info, step-by-step about the cause(s) of the crisis, the outcome and results (to come) and it's interesting to read and study a bit:

Timeline: Global credit crunch

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7521250.stm

Finance crisis: In graphics

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7644238.stm >>>> Not accurate anymore since there's more; this link is from of Oct. 6th.

Financial crisis: World round-up

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7654647.stm

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

Last night, I got into this long debate with a close farang friend who thinks primarily in favor of capitalism, Republican presidents and congresses, large and small businesses, etc. He began not by blaming FDR or the war in Vietnam, but with Jimmy Carter, the C0mmunity Reinvestment Act back in the 1970's, and the Clinton administration's insistence that every last bad credit risk must be given a mortgage with no money down. Perhaps these mandates were translated directly from Russian to English.

I said that if this incredible financial tsunami were only caused by a few hundred thousand Americans defaulting on their home mortgages - I granted him a maximum of a million foreclosures among a nation of a hundred million families, many of whom rent and do not own - it would only account for maybe a million homes times an average loss of $20,000. Seeing as how he and I are both former math(s) teachers, we agreed the losses due to defaulted mortgages by bad credit risks would be no more than $20 billion. I reminded him that Paulson asked for 700 billion just to bail out banks after he had wasted many hundreds of billions on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Also, that the Europeans had just paid hundreds of billions of Euros more to rescue failing banks all the way from Iceland to .....Bulgaria? I asked him about hungry,m greedy brokers, derivatives, the effects of financial deregulation, and we stopped for a cigarette break.

I cannot believe that the G7 is having emergency meetings just because some bad mortgages were given to a few bad credit risks. I think my Mama used to say, "There is something rotten in Denmark." Not just in Peoria. How will this play out in Penzance, Paris, and Prussia?

P.B. Its amazing what can happen when you leverage a bundle of subprime loans by 40 times There will be a new Bretton Woods type summit occuring shortly and we may find out after this meeting just where the world financial system is headed The problem in these CDS's is that until the FED stepped in here recently there was virtually no market for these instuments because of the opaque nature of them. Some of these packages may be next to worthless and some may be worth full value, in reality the average is likely around 75-80 cents on the dollar but because the market froze up these instuments had to be marked down as worthless on the banks books The U.S. government should make out very well on this little venture into the capital markets and in the end the taxpayer will likely make a profit (even though we will never see it). There is much more at work here than just some bad subprime loans in the U.S. , it is the exponential expansion of the derivatives markets worldwide and the lack of regulatory oversight that has led us to the crisis we currently find ourselves in! To put it in a word, it is something that has been around with us as long as man has existed- GREED!!! All the Harvard MBA's and law degrees and PHD's in mathematics from MIT don't mean a damm thing, because in the end mans arrogance and greed trumps everything else

[Naam]

There is much more at work here than just some bad subprime loans in the U.S. , it is the exponential expansion of the derivatives markets worldwide and the lack of regulatory oversight that has led us to the crisis we currently find ourselves in! To put it in a word, it is something that has been around with us as long as man has existed- GREED!!! All the Harvard MBA's and law degrees and PHD's in mathematics from MIT don't mean a damm thing, because in the end mans arrogance and greed trumps everything else

an excellent summary of the situation Vic!

[Wrong Turn]

Last night, I got into this long debate with a close farang friend who thinks primarily in favor of capitalism, Republican presidents and congresses, large and small businesses, etc. He began not by blaming FDR or the war in Vietnam, but with Jimmy Carter, the C0mmunity Reinvestment Act back in the 1970's, and the Clinton administration's insistence that every last bad credit risk must be given a mortgage with no money down.

There seems to be some "spin" on the CRA Act of the 1970s. This is spin by people who are politically biased.

There are many different actions by many people that led to the subprime problem. It happened in the 90s and then further in the 2000s.

The American Dream Down Payment Act of 2003.

Also, attempts to regulate the mortgage industry was quashed by lobbyists.

Many players, from both parties in government and many private parties involved.

In the end, a fixation on the false notion of home-ownership as the "American Dream," and greed caused this from the bottom to the top.

[PeaceBlondie]

Thanks, y'all. I nearly finished LaoPo's first citation from the BBC. This cannot just be bad first mortgages in Peoria, or Penzance. More like bad derivatives all the way from Prague to Peru.

[cloudhopper]

Another link attempting to explain the current strength of the USD:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/100590-see...ngth-in-the-usd

[Naam]

Another link attempting to explain the current strength of the USD:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/100590-see...ngth-in-the-usd

"seekingalpha" = [most of the time] rainbow press

[lannarebirth]

My take is, the French president would not be seeking the cooperation of so many nations if he didn't feel his own economy and currency were in some deep trouble. Generally speaking these "economic blocs" don't seek cooperation, what they seek is an edge or position of superiority. If they don't have that, THEN they seek cooperation.

[cloudhopper]

Another link attempting to explain the current strength of the USD:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/100590-see...ngth-in-the-usd

"seekingalpha" = [most of the time] rainbow press

Certainly in stark contrast to this august forum doctor. Well here's one from my favorite site then:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

regarding the USD's role in "emerging" economies such as the one we find ourselves here. May it be worthy....

[Naam]

My take is, the French president would not be seeking the cooperation of so many nations if he didn't feel his own economy and currency were in some deep trouble. Generally speaking these "economic blocs" don't seek cooperation, what they seek is an edge or position of superiority. If they don't have that, THEN they seek cooperation.

i will not argue the status of the french economy LRB but would like to point out that €U-land is indeed troubled because of the €UR strength and the importance of exports to countries having currencies which are dollar-pegged or dollar-"lean-ons".

[lannarebirth]

My take is, the French president would not be seeking the cooperation of so many nations if he didn't feel his own economy and currency were in some deep trouble. Generally speaking these "economic blocs" don't seek cooperation, what they seek is an edge or position of superiority. If they don't have that, THEN they seek cooperation.

i will not argue the status of the french economy LRB but would like to point out that €U-land is indeed troubled because of the €UR strength and the importance of exports to countries having currencies which are dollar-pegged or dollar-"lean-ons".

It's a tough situation in Euroland Herr Namm. It's not like they have a lot of room for new taxes to pay for these further subsidies/purchases they are making. Having already been established, I doubt social programs will be pared. Conservation of Matter rules. Someplace has to take the hit, and I believe it will be the currency. America, on the other hand, seems quite content to live one paycheck away from penury, which can create a certain dynamism in the economy.

[Naam]

My take is, the French president would not be seeking the cooperation of so many nations if he didn't feel his own economy and currency were in some deep trouble. Generally speaking these "economic blocs" don't seek cooperation, what they seek is an edge or position of superiority. If they don't have that, THEN they seek cooperation.

i will not argue the status of the french economy LRB but would like to point out that €U-land is indeed troubled because of the €UR strength and the importance of exports to countries having currencies which are dollar-pegged or dollar-"lean-ons".

It's a tough situation in Euroland Herr Namm. It's not like they have a lot of room for new taxes to pay for these further subsidies/purchases they are making. Having already been established, I doubt social programs will be pared. Conservation of Matter rules. Someplace has to take the hit, and I believe it will be the currency. America, on the other hand, seems quite content to live one paycheck away from penury, which can create a certain dynamism in the economy.

if that is the case not only the exporters but also a few million Europeans who are presently jobless will be happy because a lower €UR will definitely create jobs. but (amongst others) there will be one very unhappy company in the U.S. of A. and that is Boeing.

[VegasVic]

Back to the topic of this thread, and where the Dollar is headed to, HIGHER! As of a few minutes ago the Pound was $1.69 and the Euro was $1.31. Given the skyrocketing unemployment in many of the E.U. countries I would expect that the weakness in the Euro is a blessing and a welcome relief, and as I have said in past posts I expect the Euro to end the year below $1.30, and the Pound around $1.65! On a side note for all the goldbugs out there, Gold is currently trading around $770 and heading south Despite the proclamation by OPEC that they will be cutting production, Oil is down nearly $5/bbl today currently trading at $70/bbl. There are tankers full of oil parked all over the worlds oceans just waiting for a direction to head towards, so Oil will be headed lower for the foreseable future and as Oil slides the Dollar will continue to gain strength.

[VegasVic]

My take is, the French president would not be seeking the cooperation of so many nations if he didn't feel his own economy and currency were in some deep trouble. Generally speaking these "economic blocs" don't seek cooperation, what they seek is an edge or position of superiority. If they don't have that, THEN they seek cooperation.

i will not argue the status of the french economy LRB but would like to point out that €U-land is indeed troubled because of the €UR strength and the importance of exports to countries having currencies which are dollar-pegged or dollar-"lean-ons".

It's a tough situation in Euroland Herr Namm. It's not like they have a lot of room for new taxes to pay for these further subsidies/purchases they are making. Having already been established, I doubt social programs will be pared. Conservation of Matter rules. Someplace has to take the hit, and I believe it will be the currency. America, on the other hand, seems quite content to live one paycheck away from penury, which can create a certain dynamism in the economy.

if that is the case not only the exporters but also a few million Europeans who are presently jobless will be happy because a lower €UR will definitely create jobs. but (amongst others) there will be one very unhappy company in the U.S. of A. and that is Boeing.

To the best of my knowledge there is nobody curently working at Boeing anyway (at least union workers)

[JaiDamJungLoei]

Three good write ups on the US$ and Euro at Morgan Stanley:

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/arc...081020-Mon.html

[lannarebirth]

Wow, $CAD getting whacked. Someone must have finally spotted that gap at 66.

[VegasVic]

Wow, $CAD getting whacked. Someone must have finally spotted that gap at 66.

I think that it has more to do with the oil bubble bursting. Canada has strong oil and gas production and its biggest customer is the U.S.. I would liken the substantial drop in the Canadian dollar to the big drop in the Aussie dollar which is tied very strongly to commodity prices. On a side note I just saw the latest quotes for the Pound and the Euro, $1.67 and change for the Pound and $1.30 and change for the Euro, perhaps we won't have to wait until the end of the year for my predictions of the Euro below $1.30 and the Pound at $1.65, as it may occur tomorrow

[VegasVic]

Wow, $CAD getting whacked. Someone must have finally spotted that gap at 66.

I think that it has more to do with the oil bubble bursting. Canada has strong oil and gas production and its biggest customer is the U.S.. I would liken the substantial drop in the Canadian dollar to the big drop in the Aussie dollar which is tied very strongly to commodity prices. On a side note I just saw the latest quotes for the Pound and the Euro, $1.67 and change for the Pound and $1.30 and change for the Euro, perhaps we won't have to wait until the end of the year for my predictions of the Euro below $1.30 and the Pound at $1.65, as it may occur tomorrow

The market just closed here in the states and the Euro remained steady at 1.305, but the Pound got pounded (I couldn't resist the PUN) further in the closing minutes and it looks like the close is around $1.668

[lannarebirth]

You don't see that everyday:

[lannarebirth]

Hmmmm,