Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

maxcrc · December 28, 2007

It may happen at the end of December or early January to see a slide of $ supposedly because after December sales, importers and wholesalers are buying to re-fill their stocks.

yes,first half of 2008 should clear the currency scenario... hold on stand-by for awhile is a good idea.

LaoPo · December 28, 2007

It may happen at the end of December or early January to see a slide of $ supposedly because after December sales, importers and wholesalers are buying to re-fill their stocks.
yes,first half of 2008 should clear the currency scenario... hold on stand-by for awhile is a good idea.

You're mistaken here.

Importers and wholesalers ordered, bought (and in many cases paid for if it's imported from the FE) their goods a long time before Christmas or the sales-season. The merchandise coming in now (jan-march 2008) is 'spring' merchandise.

It's the shops that have to re-fill their stocks and (speaking about the US) it depends how their profits were in 2007. Although autumn sales as such were higher than 2006 the profits were lower as many shops had to sell for lower than buying prices in order to get rid of their goods. Good for customers, bad for shops.

It remains to be seen what happens further in the retail industry....in my opinion the first 6 months for 2008 will see -A LOT- lower sales figures rather than higher in comparison with 2007 !

And, that's bad for the Greenback.

LaoPo

VegasVic · December 29, 2007

And who could blame them...
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...635288420071216

Indeed, who could blame the Germans for ditching the Euro! The strong Euro has led to higher prices and double digit unemployment numbers in Germany. The one thing that has saved the German economy is their substantial ammount of exports to Russia and the former soviet republics. The demise of the Euro might finally be in the cards, but right now it would create too much havoc so I wouldn't expect any real action in that direction until 2009. I got a chuckle out of lao's post of 11/21 where he predicted the dollar to go lower as there was a great outflow of $ by foriegn investors in the US equity market, it appears that lao po is still a great contrarian indicator as the latter half of December saw not only a rebound of the dollar (especially against the pound), but massive(record) inflows of tens of billions of dollars in foriegn soveriegn wealth funds into US equities, and the outlook is for the soveriegn wealth funds to be patriating more of their dollars into US equities well into the new year. Look for oil to touch $100/bbl soon and gold to scare $850/ounce, then the best short of 2008 will be in play (oil and gold). Look for oil to be back in the 70's by April and the 60's by the end of summer and like I said back in August, gold will be lower a year from now (then it was $670/ounce), and indeed by August 2008 gold will be sub $670/ounce. As for when the bubble in chinese equities will burst(?), I still feel it will occur before the Olympics, but I am getting closer to 50/50 on the propostion that the crash will happen before or after the Olympics. Everyone have a Happy New year and be ready to take advantage of the great short opportunity in gold and oil that is about to present itself and be nimble and quick to bail out of your Chinese investments when the bust starts in the coming year

Vegas, you really have to learn to read better....but I know that's difficult for you as there's only one person you listen to: yourself.

I didn't predict anything; I merely posted financial news, written by others which could be of interest to fellows like yourself.

But.....I 'felt' that Countrywide CFC would likely drop below the $ 10 line; remember ? (That was long before you made some bucks and bought/sold round $ 16/20.)

But I wouldn't call that a prediction either but just feeling my 'water' and I was correct.

What disturbs me with your writing is that you blast a lot of figures about oil, gold and quotes but you really don't know what the heck you're talking about like "double digit unemployment numbers in Germany" which is simply rubbish and not true and/or correct.

Germany has some 3.4 Million unemployed workers as per end October and that figure is the lowest since 1994. It's 8.2% and that's still too high but certainly not 'double digits' like you write. In some parts of former Eastern Germany there are double digits here and there but not in the country as a whole. It would be the same as comparing high unemployment numbers (like Detroit) in certain US areas with for instance NY or Dallas.

If you would know just a little about the EU politics and economy you wouldn't write such rubbish.

I suggest you stick to your own country to comment but if you really wish to discuss serious foreign economy matters, I suggest you study the real facts first.

I'm convinced you know a lot more about golf than I do, but I wouldn't talk about subjects I don't know sh_t about....

LaoPo

"Foreign investors are leaving the US in large numbers, away from the dollar" Lao Po 11/21/07. The post of yours that this comes from certainly looks like a Lao Poisim and not a quote attributed to any periodical Now it would appear that one of us does indeed need to learn to read a little better The unemployment numbers out of Germany have indeed been hoovering around 10.1% for most of 2007 and if I am not mistaken that would constitute double digit unemplyment After I traded CFC for a tidy weekly profit of 18% back in august, you did mention that you thought it could drop to $10/sh and your hunch was correct this time (however this prediction happened after my trade as CFC was falling, not before my trade and you did not say that it was LIKELY to drop below $10, I'm not certain why you feel the need to embelish to such a degree). On the topic of the future of the Euro and the Chinese equity markets, well lets just say they are both doomed to a certain extent, but the Euro will still be with us when the Chinese market crashes. I think that with the election of Sarkosy, Europe is currently undergoing a change that even you cannot fathom just yet, lets see how 2008 works out and revisit this conversation later in the year when oil is $70/bbl, gold is back in the mid $600's and the dollar is a good bit stronger than it is now, then there will be a little more clarity on the future of the Euro! Perhaps a good new years resolution would be to keep to the facts without embelishment or a slant (go back and reread some of your posts and you will see what I mean). In any event, from all of us here in Sedona we would like to wish you and all the TV posters a happy and prosperous new year!

sonicdragon · December 29, 2007

And who could blame them...
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...635288420071216

Indeed, who could blame the Germans for ditching the Euro! The strong Euro has led to higher prices and double digit unemployment numbers in Germany. The one thing that has saved the German economy is their substantial ammount of exports to Russia and the former soviet republics. The demise of the Euro might finally be in the cards, but right now it would create too much havoc so I wouldn't expect any real action in that direction until 2009. I got a chuckle out of lao's post of 11/21 where he predicted the dollar to go lower as there was a great outflow of $ by foriegn investors in the US equity market, it appears that lao po is still a great contrarian indicator as the latter half of December saw not only a rebound of the dollar (especially against the pound), but massive(record) inflows of tens of billions of dollars in foriegn soveriegn wealth funds into US equities, and the outlook is for the soveriegn wealth funds to be patriating more of their dollars into US equities well into the new year. Look for oil to touch $100/bbl soon and gold to scare $850/ounce, then the best short of 2008 will be in play (oil and gold). Look for oil to be back in the 70's by April and the 60's by the end of summer and like I said back in August, gold will be lower a year from now (then it was $670/ounce), and indeed by August 2008 gold will be sub $670/ounce. As for when the bubble in chinese equities will burst(?), I still feel it will occur before the Olympics, but I am getting closer to 50/50 on the propostion that the crash will happen before or after the Olympics. Everyone have a Happy New year and be ready to take advantage of the great short opportunity in gold and oil that is about to present itself and be nimble and quick to bail out of your Chinese investments when the bust starts in the coming year

Vegas, you really have to learn to read better....but I know that's difficult for you as there's only one person you listen to: yourself.

I didn't predict anything; I merely posted financial news, written by others which could be of interest to fellows like yourself.

But.....I 'felt' that Countrywide CFC would likely drop below the $ 10 line; remember ? (That was long before you made some bucks and bought/sold round $ 16/20.)

But I wouldn't call that a prediction either but just feeling my 'water' and I was correct.

What disturbs me with your writing is that you blast a lot of figures about oil, gold and quotes but you really don't know what the heck you're talking about like "double digit unemployment numbers in Germany" which is simply rubbish and not true and/or correct.

Germany has some 3.4 Million unemployed workers as per end October and that figure is the lowest since 1994. It's 8.2% and that's still too high but certainly not 'double digits' like you write. In some parts of former Eastern Germany there are double digits here and there but not in the country as a whole. It would be the same as comparing high unemployment numbers (like Detroit) in certain US areas with for instance NY or Dallas.

If you would know just a little about the EU politics and economy you wouldn't write such rubbish.

I suggest you stick to your own country to comment but if you really wish to discuss serious foreign economy matters, I suggest you study the real facts first.

I'm convinced you know a lot more about golf than I do, but I wouldn't talk about subjects I don't know sh_t about....

LaoPo

"Foreign investors are leaving the US in large numbers, away from the dollar" Lao Po 11/21/07. The post of yours that this comes from certainly looks like a Lao Poisim and not a quote attributed to any periodical Now it would appear that one of us does indeed need to learn to read a little better The unemployment numbers out of Germany have indeed been hoovering around 10.1% for most of 2007 and if I am not mistaken that would constitute double digit unemplyment After I traded CFC for a tidy weekly profit of 18% back in august, you did mention that you thought it could drop to $10/sh and your hunch was correct this time (however this prediction happened after my trade as CFC was falling, not before my trade and you did not say that it was LIKELY to drop below $10, I'm not certain why you feel the need to embelish to such a degree). On the topic of the future of the Euro and the Chinese equity markets, well lets just say they are both doomed to a certain extent, but the Euro will still be with us when the Chinese market crashes. I think that with the election of Sarkosy, Europe is currently undergoing a change that even you cannot fathom just yet, lets see how 2008 works out and revisit this conversation later in the year when oil is $70/bbl, gold is back in the mid $600's and the dollar is a good bit stronger than it is now, then there will be a little more clarity on the future of the Euro! Perhaps a good new years resolution would be to keep to the facts without embelishment or a slant (go back and reread some of your posts and you will see what I mean). In any event, from all of us here in Sedona we would like to wish you and all the TV posters a happy and prosperous new year!

I suspect that the difference in unemployment rate insisted upon by LaoPo and VegasVic is because they are looking at different data, or reports based on different data - there are 2 sets of employment statistics published in Germany - the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Employment Accounts, which differ considerbly.

maxcrc · January 1, 2008

It may happen at the end of December or early January to see a slide of $ supposedly because after December sales, importers and wholesalers are buying to re-fill their stocks.
yes,first half of 2008 should clear the currency scenario... hold on stand-by for awhile is a good idea.

You're mistaken here.

Importers and wholesalers ordered, bought (and in many cases paid for if it's imported from the FE) their goods a long time before Christmas or the sales-season. The merchandise coming in now (jan-march 2008) is 'spring' merchandise.

It's the shops that have to re-fill their stocks and (speaking about the US) it depends how their profits were in 2007. Although autumn sales as such were higher than 2006 the profits were lower as many shops had to sell for lower than buying prices in order to get rid of their goods. Good for customers, bad for shops.

It remains to be seen what happens further in the retail industry....in my opinion the first 6 months for 2008 will see -A LOT- lower sales figures rather than higher in comparison with 2007 !

And, that's bad for the Greenback.

LaoPo

I am not mistaken .You didn t understand what I wrote.

I wrote RE-FILL stock not FILL.... I know how these things work...since I have been exporter for more than 10 years.. .. all whosalers re-fill their empty (wishfuly !) stock in January....yes, for next sales....

Obviously in case of bad sales they will re-fill less, if somebody have financial problem, it is another story.

But January is high season for asian exporters to USA, December is obviously low season for exporters but high season for retailers.

Edited January 1, 2008 by maxcrc

maxcrc · January 1, 2008

For the next weeks, we have to take care of teh following factors:

-House sales in November were lower than expected and in fact the lowest in years... it keeps affect the economy and Mr.Bernake could be tempted to cut another 0.25% the rates a the enxt meeting.

-BUT inflation is increasing too, so MANY cuts are unlikely even if economy growth will be near 0.

I dont think ( i hope NOT) there will be a real recession. I think US rates will be kept at 4.00% (after the next .25 cut) so SAME like European rates for awhile.

-In this case ,after next US economy data released later this month (which will show a very slow growth for the 4th quarter of 2008) us $ can eb still affected for awhile , but after this storm it MAY stabylize and start recovering slowly.

Nevertheless,It is very important to see the European situation which is NOT MUCH BETTER:

-Soe countries in Europe have huger current-accont deficits than USA

-Some others have HUGER (in term of % with GNP) budget deficits

-Some have even vey bad TWIN deficits

-Many contries in Europe will have HIGH inflation in 2008 (mostly in eastern europe,but they are eurpean counties too)

- Housing Bubble is already a reality and banks are taking back properties from people unable to pay the mortage (Italy, Spain, Baltic countries..)

-Growth in Europe is slowing down too more than expected few mnths ago.

-European trade deficit with China is growng fast, coz euro much sharpest appreciation against the $ than the yuan controlled and lmited appreciation which results a cheaper and cheaper yuan vs. euro.

-Comparing cost of living in USA and EU...we have a clear overvalued euro.

a $ recovering in UNAVOIDABLE , this housing problems are hamperng the dollar trend to recovery, but I think it is a matter of months. Europe cannot stand such an expensive currency for much longer.

But this is moe up to US govt than the market: The $ devaluation is a unofficial US policy and in any moment they will decide it is enough...

In my humble opinion $ is NEAR its bottom...cannot say exactly when and how much...but it is just near...

Edited January 1, 2008 by maxcrc

Naam · January 1, 2008

Where's The Us$ Heading To ? Care to tell ?

my answer: "USD will move either up or down, if neither one of the afore-mentioned then most probably no move but sideways".

heed my advice and position yourself accordingly to avoid big losses!

LaoPo · January 1, 2008

I suspect that the difference in unemployment rate insisted upon by LaoPo and VegasVic is because they are looking at different data, or reports based on different data - there are 2 sets of employment statistics published in Germany - the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Employment Accounts, which differ considerbly.

I have my unemployment info from Germany and in German, not from info in the US....and I doubt VV has his info from Germany. If I'm wrong, I challenge him to supply us with facts and data, not just words; that's cheap.

Germany had just Jan. and Febr. with 10.2 and 10.1% above the 10% line. The rest of the year is way below

http://www.spiegel.de/flash/0,5532,12125,00.html

If VV is able to read German he will see that these official numbers speak for themselves. Unemployment in Germany rose (of course) strong after the 2 Germanies reunited in 1990. But if he can't read German he can simply put his mouse over the various 'Bundeslaender' (or German States) and see the unemployment per state in Germany.

It's obvious that Germany faced enormous employment problems when 'The Wall' fell in 1989 and East and West reunited later

But, finding the truth -apart from his own- is always difficult for VV, in fact it is quite impossible; the man is an American hardliner who NEVER EVER comes along with facts.

He's constantly writing blah-blah and pointing at all the problems in the rest of the world and neglecting the serious financial problems in his own country, like "all will be well, we're the best and strongest"...

Well, I suppose if you get all your info from nationalistic news channels and retired golf buddies every single day I can understand why someone would write so much bull all the time.

Oh, before I forget:

HAPPY NEW YEAR !

LaoPo

sonicdragon · January 1, 2008

I suspect that the difference in unemployment rate insisted upon by LaoPo and VegasVic is because they are looking at different data, or reports based on different data - there are 2 sets of employment statistics published in Germany - the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Employment Accounts, which differ considerbly.

I have my unemployment info from Germany and in German, not from info in the US....and I doubt VV has his info from Germany. If I'm wrong, I challenge him to supply us with facts and data, not just words; that's cheap.

Germany had just Jan. and Febr. with 10.2 and 10.1% above the 10% line. The rest of the year is way below

http://www.spiegel.de/flash/0,5532,12125,00.html

If VV is able to read German he will see that these official numbers speak for themselves. Unemployment in Germany rose (of course) strong after the 2 Germanies reunited in 1990. But if he can't read German he can simply put his mouse over the various 'Bundeslaender' (or German States) and see the unemployment per state in Germany.

It's obvious that Germany faced enormous employment problems when 'The Wall' fell in 1989 and East and West reunited later

But, finding the truth -apart from his own- is always difficult for VV, in fact it is quite impossible; the man is an American hardliner who NEVER EVER comes along with facts.

He's constantly writing blah-blah and pointing at all the problems in the rest of the world and neglecting the serious financial problems in his own country, like "all will be well, we're the best and strongest"...

Well, I suppose if you get all your info from nationalistic news channels and retired golf buddies every single day I can understand why someone would write so much bull all the time.

Oh, before I forget:

HAPPY NEW YEAR !

LaoPo

It is very sad to see this thread degenerte into bickering and personal insults. I particularly don't like it when you quote my post in order to try to make your point.

Obvously there are sources that support your figures. I have stated the likely reason for differing figures. Here are 2 that support VegasVic's side:

This will compound the trend of rising unemployment. Germany's Federal Labour Office said the unemployment rate rose to 10.3 per cent in January from 10.1 per cent a month earlier.

From The Independent, Jan 1, 2008

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/ana...ticle118092.ece

GERMANY: 10.2% [2006]

From the European Commisson website

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/porta...22007-EN-BP.PDF

Page 7

And finally, to back up my assertion that there are 2 sets of employment data commonly in use for Germany:

Unemployment rate: 7.1%
note: this is the International Labor Organization's estimated rate for international comparisons; Germany's Federal Employment Office estimated a seasonally adjusted rate of 10.8% (2006 est.)

From CIA - The World Factbook website

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...ok/geos/gm.html

The data on employment in Germany calculated over the last few years through the labour force survey and the employment accounts differ considerably

From the Federal Statistical Office of Germany website

http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms...enderPrint.psml

Now, could we get back on topic or do you insist on more OT bickering ?

LaoPo · January 1, 2008

It is very sad to see this thread degenerte into bickering and personal insults. I particularly don't like it when you quote my post in order to try to make your point.
Obvously there are sources that support your figures. I have stated the likely reason for differing figures. Here are 2 that support VegasVic's side:

This will compound the trend of rising unemployment. Germany's Federal Labour Office said the unemployment rate rose to 10.3 per cent in January from 10.1 per cent a month earlier.
From The Independent, Jan 1, 2008
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/ana...ticle118092.ece

GERMANY: 10.2% [2006]
From the European Commisson website
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/porta...22007-EN-BP.PDF

Page 7

And finally, to back up my assertion that there are 2 sets of employment data commonly in use for Germany:

Unemployment rate: 7.1%
note: this is the International Labor Organization's estimated rate for international comparisons; Germany's Federal Employment Office estimated a seasonally adjusted rate of 10.8% (2006 est.)

From CIA - The World Factbook website
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...ok/geos/gm.html

The data on employment in Germany calculated over the last few years through the labour force survey and the employment accounts differ considerably
From the Federal Statistical Office of Germany website
http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms...enderPrint.psml

Now, could we get back on topic or do you insist on more OT bickering ?

Fair enough about your remark that this topic, started by myself as the OP, has degenerated with the discussion about the unemployment percentages in Germany.

And I apologize for being off topic and that I stepped in the trap set by VV; I simply can't stand people who claim %'s, numbers and figures which are not true, especially when they NEVER provide links or facts.

But you could have saved yourself a lot of time by searching for the links, above, as they are quite dated and therefore incorrect (2002/2003 and 2005/2006) except for the last link, which is from August 2007, (no recent data available in this last link in German/English; youngest = 2005) and I don't understand why you did so in the first place since you sound so upset with 'bickering' as you mentioned.

You, sonicdragon, now provided even more food-for-thought to more bickering yourself.... but I agree: