£ Sterling Up Sh*t Creek?

[VegasVic]

I was just talking to someone who has many dealings with hedge funds in the U.K. and throughout Europe and his view on the Pound and Euro was fairly negative. In particular he sees the Pound dropping to below 1.50/Dollar. If the BOT continues selling those Dollar reserves in order to keep treading water with the Dollar, then that could mean a pretty big drop in the Pound/baht relationship over the coming months

And they will run out at some point ?

I still can't help thinking that the BOT is sticking it's fingers in the dyke. I know I have a vested interested in seeing GBP back at 65+ but even so ........... the Thai economy feels fragile.

Yes the BOT will run out of dollars to sell at some point. I think that they are afraid of 1997 all over again so they feel if they can stabize the baht vs. the Dollar then they will have won half the battle, and if they can keep the baht at around 35-36/Dollar while oil falls, that when oil finally stabilizes then they will have been able to control any wild swings. The baht will likely gravitate back to around 41-43/Dollar when all is said and done, because that is the level it has seems to go to ever since 1997! Should the Pound not drop below 1.50/Dollar then you could definately see the low 60's when the baht/dollar gets to 42 or so

[Naam]

but the winner is Monaco: 16,818 inhabitants per km²

Naam - please try and get out more

important in "these" times is that we are still able to joke and pull each others legs

[Dave the Dude]

important in "these" times is that we are still able to joke and pull each others legs

Very true statement, my Klingon friend

[chiang mai]

Well matey, this Brit suggests you are very wrong, unfortunately. My first years in Thailand were spent here exchanging Pounds at the rate of 1 Pound for 35 Baht. Is there any special reason why you think we might not return to that scenario because I don't see any. Before you reply you might want to think about the degree to which the UK economy is driven by financial services and the extent to which the "new builds" and their predecessors might suffer substantial price deflation.

I wasn't saying there wouldn't be substantial price deflation on "new-builds". Did I not say overpriced and over-supplied?

Remember, it was only in the late 1990's that you got 90 baht to the pound

Any reason why we won't see that again?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

If the world goes into a "mini-recession"? What will happen to Thai export's - the major driving force behind the economy?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

UK:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_UK

Although I agree there are troubled times ahead for the £. When the current bunch of jokers get voted out in the next year or so, perhaps thing's might improve

RAZZ

Well if you had timed it right back in 1997 you might have been able to get 90 baht for your Pound but if you were just a little early you would have seen 35, a rate that had existed for some time and was largely considered to be the norm. That 1997 event marked the beginning of the Asian Crisis and the currency has never fully recovered to this day. But the Thai's have taken substantial steps to improve their financial control since 1997 hence there is no reason to believe that they are worse off today than they were back in 1997, if anything they are in a substantially stronger position. Another point to note here is that Thailand was the catalyst for the Asian crisis in 1997, today they are merely a bystander in someone else's crisis! No sorry, whilst I would not object to seeing 70, 80 0r 90 baht to the Pound that is not the direction it is headed I'm afraid.

[tijnebijn]

The markets seem to start in green today , for a change .

Looks like the decisions made by the European leaders is very

much welcomed , is a bit logic anyway , investors are looking

for trust and stabilisation , there are 2 things possible let the markets tumble further with many at stake

or stick with any positive news , the opposite of what the last couple of weeks happened .

Of course its just very peril , but the Pound and Euro seem to appreciate a bit because of

these possible little light points in the far dark ......... at least today

If the banks in Europe can win the trust back , the exchange rates could well go back to the levels pre - crisis

in rapid tempo , but could tumble again if the trust gets lost again ........ and further

Just hope for stabilisation and trust to come back ..............

[cmsally]

The cynic in me says the market has been trashed because people want to get out of commodities and oil and are looking for a cheap way out. How this affects the currency markets I am not quite sure at the moment, it's a Monday morning and I need another cup of coffee to figure that one out.

[Naam]

Queen of currencies set to skydive?

nostalgia: once upon a time there was a currency. it was strong and dominant based on the sweat of "<deleted>" and blacks slave labouring in a bunch of colonies. then suddenly the Queen of currencies abdicated (by forces unknown). deprived of her silk dresses she now stands nekkid and forlorn trying to cover her pubic hair with both hands

[vanalli]

Hmmm. I've been out of Thailand a few weeks and don't plan to return there for some time. I'm a UK national and lived in Thailand for three years and have some savings. I'm just wondering whether I should leave my Thai savings as they are or else do something with them. I don't really know if I should do anything.

[BalthazarBeefheart]

Hmmm. I've been out of Thailand a few weeks and don't plan to return there for some time. I'm a UK national and lived in Thailand for three years and have some savings. I'm just wondering whether I should leave my Thai savings as they are or else do something with them. I don't really know if I should do anything.

You don't deserve savings if you need to ask what to do with them on this forum - anyone who knows the slightest bit about economics or finance soon disappears.

I think most of the posters are chained to their p.c's by their Thai wifes and fed a diet of Jagermeister.

I myself would put it in that King of currencies - the Deutschmark !

Cheers BB

[Naam]

Hmmm. I've been out of Thailand a few weeks and don't plan to return there for some time. I'm a UK national and lived in Thailand for three years and have some savings. I'm just wondering whether I should leave my Thai savings as they are or else do something with them. I don't really know if I should do anything.

You don't deserve savings if you need to ask what to do with them on this forum - anyone who knows the slightest bit about economics or finance soon disappears.

I think most of the posters are chained to their p.c's by their Thai wifes and fed a diet of Jagermeister.

I myself would put it in that King of currencies - the Deutschmark !

Cheers BB

i'd second that wholeheartedly Balthazar, but in my german mother tongue the Deutsche Mark is feminine and until now a female King is unheard of. perhaps there will be a change in future?

[Naam]

Hmmm. I've been out of Thailand a few weeks and don't plan to return there for some time. I'm a UK national and lived in Thailand for three years and have some savings. I'm just wondering whether I should leave my Thai savings as they are or else do something with them. I don't really know if I should do anything.

You don't deserve savings if you need to ask what to do with them on this forum - anyone who knows the slightest bit about economics or finance soon disappears.

I think most of the posters are chained to their p.c's by their Thai wifes and fed a diet of Jagermeister.

I myself would put it in that King of currencies - the Deutschmark !

Cheers BB

YES! BUY US BEER WITH YOUR SAVINGS!

[BalthazarBeefheart]

Yes the BOT will run out of dollars to sell at some point. I think that they are afraid of 1997 all over again so they feel if they can stabize the baht vs. the Dollar then they will have won half the battle, and if they can keep the baht at around 35-36/Dollar while oil falls, that when oil finally stabilizes then they will have been able to control any wild swings. The baht will likely gravitate back to around 41-43/Dollar when all is said and done, because that is the level it has seems to go to ever since 1997! Should the Pound not drop below 1.50/Dollar then you could definately see the low 60's when the baht/dollar gets to 42 or so

I wouldn't have thought history was the greatest factor these days - perhaps it would be better if you said because that is the level I would like it to go to !

Personally from all the wisdom I have gathered on here I can predict that GBP will fluctuate between 35 and 90 to the baht.

Cheers BB

[BalthazarBeefheart]

Hmmm. I've been out of Thailand a few weeks and don't plan to return there for some time. I'm a UK national and lived in Thailand for three years and have some savings. I'm just wondering whether I should leave my Thai savings as they are or else do something with them. I don't really know if I should do anything.

You don't deserve savings if you need to ask what to do with them on this forum - anyone who knows the slightest bit about economics or finance soon disappears.

I think most of the posters are chained to their p.c's by their Thai wifes and fed a diet of Jagermeister.

I myself would put it in that King of currencies - the Deutschmark !

Cheers BB

i'd second that wholeheartedly Balthazar, but in my german mother tongue the Deutsche Mark is feminine and until now a female King is unheard of. perhaps there will be a change in future?

Sorry I didn't know we could have two Queens of currencies. I think the OP may be using Queen as an euphemism for Queer - since New Labour Mandelson, Blair and Brown the pink pound has become increasingly important.

Pound Sterling has a masculine sound to me so perhaps it should be King of Currencies. It's bouncing back today - I can see it back it over 2 USD by breakfast tomorrow - I am going out to celebrate.

Cheers BB

[JimsKnight]

Queen of currencies set to skydive?

nostalgia: once upon a time there was a currency. it was strong and dominant based on the sweat of "<deleted>" and blacks slave labouring in a bunch of colonies. then suddenly the Queen of currencies abdicated (by forces unknown). deprived of her silk dresses she now stands nekkid and forlorn trying to cover her pubic hair with both hands

Spoken like a true boxhead

Heh, I used the term Queen of currencies cause there was a point in 2007 pre-credit crunch that the £ was so strong that some swiss institutes were switching to the £ and a newspaper article (somewhat forlornly) announced the catch phrase.

All the talk of 35 baht to the £ is a bit insane. People need to remember that back in the day pre '97 you could get a massive amount of things for your baht back then. Especially as fuel was sub 10 baht a litre and bachelor living was cheap as chips.

Edited October 13, 2008 by JimsKnight

[yabaaaa]

Queen of currencies set to skydive?

nostalgia: once upon a time there was a currency. it was strong and dominant based on the sweat of "<deleted>" and blacks slave labouring in a bunch of colonies. then suddenly the Queen of currencies abdicated (by forces unknown). deprived of her silk dresses she now stands nekkid and forlorn trying to cover her pubic hair with both hands

How do you know she doesnt have a shaven haven?

[Naam]

Queen of currencies set to skydive?

nostalgia: once upon a time there was a currency. it was strong and dominant based on the sweat of "<deleted>" and blacks slave labouring in a bunch of colonies. then suddenly the Queen of currencies abdicated (by forces unknown). deprived of her silk dresses she now stands nekkid and forlorn trying to cover her pubic hair with both hands

How do you know she doesnt have a shaven haven?

pure assumption without proof. area covered.

[JimsKnight]

Worried bump!

Naam, have you got that mk1 prototype crystal ball rolling yet?

[VegasVic]

The Poll seems to have predicted the Pounds fall off a cliff early on in this thread! Perhaps there is something to this web bot stuff

[Chomper Higgot]

Up you go. 

 

A reminder of when Bht50/£1 was considered the doom scenario. 

[CharlieH]

No idea why ressurrected  12 yrold topic. - Closed