Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[Jingthing]

If the primary purpose of the coup government was to crush Thaksin and crush TRT, they sure had a funny way of going about it. Maybe they were too friendly. Why did they even allow an obvious TRT proxy party to exist in the first place? Why didn't they convict Thaksin in absentia? This election is a win for Thaksin for sure, but also shows what a big waste the entire coup period turned out to be. If you're going to trash the constitution, at least do something productive with your total power, or what's the point?

Edited December 24, 2007 by Jingthing

[Farangderthal]

Well it has been an enjoyable election weekend, that has to be said. Now we can settle down and watch the fevered rantings of Plus, John_K and their ilk as they come to terms with yet another Thaksin victory. Merry Christmas! I see contempt for the rural poor Thai electorate is alive and well with people still saying they are too uneducated to vote etc. Disgusting.

I don't think it's disgusting at all. Without poor people, who would be serving our drinks in the bars.. It would be the end of Life in Thailand As We Know It. Our lifestyle DEPENDS on the poor being kept poor and I think it's time everyone realizes that.

[tropo]

If the primary purpose of the coup government was to crush Thaksin and crush TRT, they sure had a funny way of going about it. Maybe they were too friendly. Why did they even allow an obvious TRT proxy party to exist in the first place? Why didn't they convict Thaksin in absentia? This election is a win for Thaksin for sure, but also shows what a big waste the entire coup period turned out to be. If you're going to trash the constitution, at least do something productive with your total power, or what's the point?

The answer to that question is simple. The Thais wouldn't have stood for anything more crushing and the military knew it. Anything more would have caused mayhem and economic disaster. You're painting the Thais as a bunch of roll over and die pussies. They are not.

Edited December 24, 2007 by tropo

[samsara]

whether the voters are poor or not is not the issue; their education is. true, the two go hand-in-hand much of the time, but thats not the point.

look at the history of voting in democratic societies. 18 is typically the age req. why? because thats the age when people are thought to have mentally matured. hate to say it, but many people in thailand never reach that degree of mental maturity. this statement is not mean-spirited, its a fact. once again, why do parents make decisions for their children? the analogy works quite well.

i mean, is it not bloody obvious? why is this even a question of dispute? thaksin bought votes for a reason. ppp did the same for a reason. thaksin carves the average thai mind (unquestioning, etc.) like michelangelo with marble.

[tropo]

Many people on here are surprised at vote buying. they seem to think that giving the thai's 100 baht or more each for a vote is a lot of money. Thaskin has billions of dollars. If you still think that is a lot of money to buy votes, you should really have an good idea of just how much a billion is>

A billion seconds ago it was 1959.

A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.

A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.

A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth on two feet

jimmy

If you were counting in 1990 that is.

[samsara]

Many people on here are surprised at vote buying. they seem to think that giving the thai's 100 baht or more each for a vote is a lot of money. Thaskin has billions of dollars. If you still think that is a lot of money to buy votes, you should really have an good idea of just how much a billion is>

A billion seconds ago it was 1959.

A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.

A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.

A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth on two feet

jimmy

If you were counting in 1990 that is.

yeah, it should be 1976.

[John K]

Like I said it is a bit too early to make a call but each of the possible outcomes if far from what anyone would call acceptable. I would say by mid to late week this flower that was planted yesterday will start to display it’s scent. Whether that scent will attract butterflies or just plain flies will be more obvious then.

[Old Man River]

In 2005 TRT got nearly 80% of the votes, in 2007 only half of that. That's a big big loss.

The vote wasn't about PPP vs Democrats or PPP vs Chat Thai. It was PPP against everyone else, and they clearly lost, just like they lost the consitution vote earlier this year.

No other party cares about Thaksin, if you look at this vote as a referendum on his legacy - people told him to shove it and voted for someone else instead.

It's time to let go of that dead horse and move on - majority of people don't want Thaksin anymore.

After Chat Thai and Pua Paendin refused to join PPP, Samak needs at least two other small parties to form the government, same as the current Democrat led coalition. The problem for PPP is that all those small parties are on the other side of the huge ideological gap, the gap PPP has created itself. They are pro-coup/anti-Thaksin, if PPP invites them, it will have to make major concessions and tone down or even abandon its "return Thaksin" winning policy.

There are ways to get around this but those small parties can join Democrats and get into the government without any hassle and backroom deals and risk of alienating their supporters.

If you look at national politics/proportional vote results, PPP's loss is even more dramatic - they've got only slightly over 30% - almost 70% voted against them, so much for "vote PPP get Thaksin" slogan.

The battle isn't over, but Abhisit has all the cards he needs to form the government, what does Samak have? Certainly not the electorate endorsement to return Thaksin at any cost.

From what I have been told (by people I trust) the major issue facing the people upcountry has been the large amount of personal debt which has created an anchor around their necks. This debt is viewed as Thaksin's debt and as such it is thought that only Thaksin could be trusted to get the debt erased. Hence, the vote wasn't specifically an endorsement of Thaksin, but rather a means to bring back the one person believed who could be trusted to get these obligations forgiven.

[bulmercke]

Puea Pandin leader to make statement today

Puea Pandin party leader Suvit Khunkitti is due to make a statement about his party’s political direction later this afternoon.

Meanwhile, party spokesman Watchiramon Gunakasemthanawat admitted that the People Power party led by Samak Sundaravej had contacted the party last night about forming a coalition government but not much progress was made.

More from the Bangkok Post here.

PPP interested in Chart Thai/Puea Pandin coalition - BANGKOK POST - 15.20 -

(BangkokPost.com) – The People Power party (PPP) could invite Chart Thai and Puea Pandin parties to form a coalition government, according to its deputy leader Sompong Amornvivat.

“The combination of seats between Chart Thai and Puea Pandin together with PPPs seats would makes a good coalition,” he said.

He admitted that a former rift between Puea Pandin’s adviser Vattana Asvahame and PPP leader Samak Sundaravej could pose as a problem but was confident that all could be easily forgotten.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

This is why Banharn met with Puea Pandin last night - to do a deal with Vattana Asvahame - an arch enemy of Thaksin - anti-Thaksin all the way - and clear the way for a Puea Pandin - Chart Thai pact that can then proceed forward to form a coalition with the PPP.

Banharn probably met as an intermediary for PPP and Samak - and ultimately Thaksin - and a deal was struck between all of them. Banharn probably negotiated a mutually beneficial deal that suited everyone - to the exclusion of Puea Pandin's voters who will now see their party allied with PPP - and seriously compromised for the sake of political expediency and financial return for it's leaders and executives.

Unfortuantely it appears the Democrats will be left - kept - out of things - in effect totally marginalised and excluded from any opportunity to broker a deal with either Chart Thai or Puea Pandin.

Thaksin's big money is no doubt playing a big part in influencing who these two smaller parties ultimately side with - and do business with.

Everything will be known fairly soon.

Edited December 24, 2007 by bulmercke

[hammered]

Puea Pandin leader to make statement today

Puea Pandin party leader Suvit Khunkitti is due to make a statement about his party’s political direction later this afternoon.

Meanwhile, party spokesman Watchiramon Gunakasemthanawat admitted that the People Power party led by Samak Sundaravej had contacted the party last night about forming a coalition government but not much progress was made.

More from the Bangkok Post here.

PPP interested in Chart Thai/Puea Pandin coalition - BANGKOK POST - 15.20 -

(BangkokPost.com) – The People Power party (PPP) could invite Chart Thai and Puea Pandin parties to form a coalition government, according to its deputy leader Sompong Amornvivat.

“The combination of seats between Chart Thai and Puea Pandin together with PPPs seats would makes a good coalition,” he said.

He admitted that a former rift between Puea Pandin’s adviser Vattana Asvahame and PPP leader Samak Sundaravej could pose as a problem but was confident that all could be easily forgotten.

This is why Banharm met with Puea Pandin last night - to do a deal with Vattana Asvahame - an arch enemy of Thaksin - anti-Thaksin all the way - and clear the way for a Puea Pandin - Chart Thai pact that can then proceed forward to form a coalition with the PPP.

Unfortuantely it appears the Democrats will be left - kept - out of things - in effect totally marginalised and excluded from any opportunity to broker a deal with either Chart Thai or Puea Pandin.

Thaksin's big money is no doubt playing a big part in influencing who these two smaller ultimately side with - and do business with.

Everything will be known fairly soon.

Yes the fun and games start here

[Farangderthal]

I don't see why everyone is so downbeat about it..

I love Thailand, love its people, who vote the way they vote.. I guess they didn't like the coup and military rule as much as most Thaivisa-Farangs, but hey, it's their country!

I'm happy for Thailand.

Now, off to get some beers.. Would you believe I had to go past TWO shops yesterday before I found one that would sell me some Changs and pretzels!!

Happy happy..

[John K]

Well so be it Tudd, however at least I can say my posts have been based on facts where many times yours have not.

Such gems as "the Junta has not increased internet censorship" are based on facts?

At least you still retain your sense of humour even if the election results weren't to your liking!

I wonder why you cited that. Well take a tally now and see what way it goes.

[sbk]

Off-topic inflammatory and abusive posts have been deleted. Lets keep this a civil conversation please

[rafval]

maybe one day they will institutionalise vote buying and call it welfare, seem to work in the west anyway

[Ricardo]

Well it has been an enjoyable election weekend, that has to be said. Now we can settle down and watch the fevered rantings of Plus, John_K and their ilk as they come to terms with yet another Thaksin victory. Merry Christmas! I see contempt for the rural poor Thai electorate is alive and well with people still saying they are too uneducated to vote etc. Disgusting.

I don't think it's disgusting at all. Without poor people, who would be serving our drinks in the bars.. It would be the end of Life in Thailand As We Know It. Our lifestyle DEPENDS on the poor being kept poor and I think it's time everyone realizes that.

I'm pleased to say that my lifestyle depends on my being willing to pour my own drinks, usually at home, although it might include helping create jobs in bars/hotels/restaurants when I go out, and I don't find this shameful.

I too feel sympathy for the rural poor Thais, as I remember being poor myself, and agree that poor education is used here to help hold them down, it's a pity that the rich poo-yais of TRT didn't do more to solve this, during their 5 years in power ! Maybe the PPP will change this - but I'm not holding my breath.

Because that might have meant paying a little more tax, when they sold off national-assets, or bent the rules to help their new companies, or whatever. So no suprise that it didn't happen.

Incidentally, in all this debate over the major parties & the tricks that are used, to influence the votes, it is worth remembering that all recent governments have failed to return the Thai Communists' right to form a party or campaign. What are they afraid of ? The competition ?? Or that supposedly-populist parties might be shown-up, as just using populist policies, to maintain their own places at the trough ?

[mel2surf]

This snipped from AP writer on Yahoo News:

If the PPP fails to build a coalition that secures an absolute majority it could allow opponents to form a government.

Complete election results were due later Monday.

"I would like to call for all political parties to join us in forming a strong government," PPP leader Samak Sundaravej said at a news conference. "I will certainly be the prime minister."

He said Thaksin, who was in Hong Kong, had telephoned to offer his congratulations after hearing the results.

The second-place Democrat Party took 166 seats.

"If the PPP succeeds in forming the government, the Democrat Party is ready to be in the opposition to protect the people's interest. However, if the PPP fails to form a government, the Democrat Party is also ready to form a government," said Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejajjiva.

The possible disqualification of some Thaksin allies could also complicate the task of assembling a ruling coalition.

Sodsri Sathayatham, a member of the Election Commission, said at least 24 could be disqualified while re-elections might be necessary in a dozen cases. The commission, which will meet Wednesday to begin investigations, was barraged by hundreds of complaints of vote-buying and other violations of electoral law.

Me thinks it aint time to break out the celebratory spliffs/champagne YET

Happy Holidays !

[Jingthing]

If the primary purpose of the coup government was to crush Thaksin and crush TRT, they sure had a funny way of going about it. Maybe they were too friendly. Why did they even allow an obvious TRT proxy party to exist in the first place? Why didn't they convict Thaksin in absentia? This election is a win for Thaksin for sure, but also shows what a big waste the entire coup period turned out to be. If you're going to trash the constitution, at least do something productive with your total power, or what's the point?

The answer to that question is simple. The Thais wouldn't have stood for anything more crushing and the military knew it. Anything more would have caused mayhem and economic disaster. You're painting the Thais as a bunch of roll over and die pussies. They are not.

Those are good points.

So if they are not roll over and die, what are they, roll over and (buy) get bought?

If coups can't accomplish anything anymore, as this one didn't, maybe the silver lining is no more coups?

Edited December 24, 2007 by Jingthing

[bulmercke]

QUOTE (hammered):"Yes the fun and games start here"

You bet they will - and I'll guarantee that despite the voter's dislike for Samak and their reluctance to see him as the next prime minister - he will be just that!

Suvit Khunkitti's (Puea Pandin) and Banharn's opposition to Samak being the coalition's/next government's prime-minister is probably being used by them as a bargaining tool to extract further 'favours' and more 'leverage' from PPP. In other words - power and money - and a bigger say in party policy, cabinet seats etc. etc.

Thai's jokingly refer to Banharn as an 'eel on roller-skates' which is a snide reference to how slippery an operator he can be in the dirty world of Thai politics.

He's probably in his element now - excelling at what he does best - and doing a good job in the process for himself and his party.

I expect Abhisit feels pretty sick now. Stabbed in the back - big time!

Edited December 24, 2007 by bulmercke

[ando]

Actually if you check it was very publicized that the judges had a few visits to the palace for guidance and the military along with the people accepted the ruling. Please be sure you get your facts straight and not end up in trouble for criticizing the court, that part was made very clear[/u]. Now it looks like the PPP plans to go beyond all that and just rip out the ruling by the roots. It is like giving people in jail the keys.

The rebuttal to that argument about HRH and his military advisers is a no go area here under forum rules. Are you trying to bait someone?

Re the "people" accepting the ruling as you claim, I would think the results of the most recent election clearly shows that the "people" did not accept the ruling. The people simply did not have any say in the matter at the time.

I also recall that under the protective umbrella of the military dictatorship, the judiciary threatening legal action against anyone who publicly challenged their integrity and impartiality. Now that's a real case of freedom of speech in a democratic society isn't it? The judiciary sets itself above scrutiny by the media and is backed up by a bunch of generals who have seized political power under force of arms. The outcome of being tried in the courts for the crime of criticizing the courts would be pretty much a foregone conclusion in most peoples minds I think. Its quite obvious to the "people" as demonstrated in Sundays vote, that the judiciary is not impartial, and in fact leans towards the old elite power base which includes the military. The fact that the "people" voted for a party campaigning on a platform of reviewing decisions in relation to Thaksin made by the courts which were previously unquestionable, indicates that the people do not have faith in the impartiality of the courts.

I think your statement about, --- ending up in trouble for criticising the court, adequately demonstrates the suppression of freedom of speech that was resented by the people under the military dictatorship.

[Farangderthal]

I think a lot of Farangs are buying the BS from the generals too much.. And not respecting common Thais enough.

I think before slagging off everyone as being stupid or greedy for some money to vote, perhaps it's time to go talk to those people and thus help bring about some understanding and unity, along the lines with what H.M. the King has said: work towards unity.

You can't have unity if the losers in the election are calling the winners 'stupid' and try to find non-democratic ways to silence them.

So really I suggest everyone to lighten up, and reach out in respect and understanding. In the spirit of Christmas, even.

[mel2surf]

IMHO:

Would have been nice if the military did more good for the people of Isaan

while they were in power,instead of babysitting and keeping the foxes from

re-entering the henhouse.

[Jingthing]

I expect Abhisit feels pretty sick now. Stabbed in the back - big time!

Clearly, this is Thailand's loss. He will be back.

Edited December 24, 2007 by Jingthing

[ando]

If coups can't accomplish anything anymore, as this one didn't, maybe the silver lining is no more coups?

Hopefully, that message will sink in with the elite/military powerbrokers.

The world is changing, even for Thailand and unless they want to end up like Burma, sooner or later they will have to understand that democracy is the way to go. Its going to be a painful transition for the old ruling class elite. Maybe one more try at holding back the tide of change is definately on the cards IMHO.

And then there's the rampant corruption funded by the old guard to be overcome.

The next decade will be an interesting time in Thai politics.

[bulmercke]

16:09 Troops to transfer out of Bangkok to bases - BANGKOK POST -

(BangkokPost.com) - First army region informed public the transfer of troops out of Bangkok and the neighbouring areas to Prachin Buri, Lop Buri and Kanchanaburi on Monday night.

The transfer, scheduled at 8pm, is informed to prevent any misunderstanding after unofficial voting results show People Power party (PPP) winning 228 seats from the total of 480. Its rival Democrat party has won 165 seats.

Tanks are expected to be seen on roads as the troops head back to their bases.

Strange logic. This could be it! Another coup? This unexpected move could be the pretense under which the military and the ruling elite tonight retain their power base.

Edited December 24, 2007 by bulmercke

[A_Traveller]

BBC News

Timed at 10:10 GMT 17:10 BKK

The party which won most seats in Thailand's election has claimed it has the backing of enough smaller parties to form a ruling coalition.

But a People Power Party (PPP) spokesman declined to say which parties had agreed to join it.

The PPP, allied to ousted ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra, won a comfortable victory in Sunday's poll but did not win an outright majority.

It has pledged to bring Mr Thaksin back to Thailand if it takes power.

Surapong Suebwonglee, secretary general of the PPP, told a press conference in Bangkok: "Other parties have agreed to join a coalition, which would give us more than half of the seats in parliament."

"Now we will wait for the Election Commission to ratify the result. When it is ratified, we will move forward with forming the government."

According to unofficial election results, the PPP won 232 seats in Sunday's poll, while its main rival, the Democrat Party, won 165.

The Democrats have already ruled out forming a coalition with the PPP.

The two other major parties, Chart Thai and Puea Pandin, have said they will act together in forming alliances with other parties.

The election was the first since the 2006 bloodless coup which removed Mr Thaksin from power.

Since the coup, the country has been ruled by a military-appointed interim administration.

Regards

Edit add Time

Edited December 24, 2007 by A_Traveller

[prakhonchai nick]

From what I have been told (by people I trust) the major issue facing the people upcountry has been the large amount of personal debt which has created an anchor around their necks. This debt is viewed as Thaksin's debt and as such it is thought that only Thaksin could be trusted to get the debt erased.

It was Thaksin's debt. He introduced the village fund, and the villagers jumped for joy, borrowed as much as they could, largely wasted it on cards and the lottery, and now have even bigger debts than before. By all means let Thaksin erase their debts from his large piggy bank, but it is not the job of any government nor the taxpayers to bail out these incompetent people

[stumonster]

Thaksin camp claims support for coalition

ALLIES of Thailand's ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra claimed they had received enough support from other parties to form a coalition government, a party official said.

"Other parties have agreed to join a coalition, which would give us more than half of the seats in parliament," secretary-general of the pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP) Surapong Suebwonglee said.

"Now we will wait for the Election Commission to ratify the result. When it is ratified, we will move forward with forming the government," he said.

Unofficial returns from Sunday's general election gave PPP 232 of the 480 seats in parliament, just short of the absolute majority needed to govern alone.

The party, which has promised to bring Mr Thaksin back from his self-imposed exile in Britain, claimed victory on Sunday and immediately began courting potential partners.

Mr Surapong declined to name which parties had agreed to join the coalition.

<snip>

A fifth party, Chart Thai, was seen as potentially swinging either way. The party is known popularly as "the eel" because of its history of slippery alliances based more on political convenience than ideology.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...3-12377,00.html

[bulmercke]

BREAKING NEWS

PPP says it has enough to form government - BANGKOK POST - 17:16

(BangkokPost.com) - People Power party (PPP) has enough support from small parties to form a coalition government, PPP secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee said Monday.

Mr Surapong, speaking at a news conference, denied to say who those parties are.

The latest unofficial results conducted by Election Commission stated that PPP has 232 out of 480 seats while its rival Democrat gets 165 seats.

Chart Thai party has 37 while Puea Pandin has 25. Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana gets nine; Matchimathipataya has seven and Pracharaj has five seats.

[bulmercke]

16:09 Troops to transfer out of Bangkok to bases - BANGKOK POST -

(BangkokPost.com) - First army region informed public the transfer of troops out of Bangkok and the neighbouring areas to Prachin Buri, Lop Buri and Kanchanaburi on Monday night.

The transfer, scheduled at 8pm, is informed to prevent any misunderstanding after unofficial voting results show People Power party (PPP) winning 228 seats from the total of 480. Its rival Democrat party has won 165 seats.

Tanks are expected to be seen on roads as the troops head back to their bases.

Strange logic. This could be it! Another coup? This unexpected move could be the pretense under which the military and the ruling elite tonight retain their power base.

Does anyone have any further info. about this? Seems a bit ominous to me.

[Naam]

In a strange sort of way I do feel I woke up in a more democratic place this morning.

indeed! i had the same strange feeling. the morning coffee tasted much more democratic. when it got bright, looking out of the window i saw our gardener mowing the lawn in a more democratic and not junta way. my breakfast eggs were democratically evenly fried (soft yolks) and aligned on the plate. the freaking weather is democratically hot (as usual) and doesn't care that it's Christmas time and snow should fall...