We're On Our Way Up...

[AFKAFSinLOS]

if you have been in energy in thailand (not power generation though) you would have almost doubled your money over the space of the past year. Shares like Banpu and PTT going really well, even though the subprime (indeed, Banpu did a IPO for one of its subsdiaries in Indonesdia in December). Dunno about new spouts though, these guys are 'old news!' LOL.

Would have liked to be in on some Australian junior miners last year....but oh well.

SET linked funds have done well over the past year too. My good corporate governance fund has gone up 20%PA over the past 2 years (average - meaning well in the first year, OK ish in year 2). My ING BRIC fund has gone up 14% in about 4 months.

Have had some dogs too. Bamrungrad has taken a hit, and AOT is a bit sluggish.

Erawan is touted for good things too.

But I'll stick with energy.

As you say it's been a good year so far for investing in Thailand in quite a few ways. SET was up another 1.19% today at 884. Not long now for those ten year highs

Another thing as you allude to is the range of investments have improved signifcantly in Thailand: the intro of LTFs such as the Thai Good Governance, BRIC funds, overseas markets etc.

The two you mention from ING now seem to be quite common place and I know quite a few people Thais and foreigners who hold them. Both have some nice movements this year. Another one recently launched was Aberdeen Global Emerging Growth fund - leveraging off its Global fund. That's nicely up too.

UOB are launching a commodity fund, so we've really got choices now. I have to admit that made we slightly nervous though, as when too many new funds are issued to capitalise on good times and jump on the band wagon, it sometimes signals it's actually time to get out. I've had some nice rides this year in resources/commodities/mining etc so maybe this is peaking...

I didn't jump into ING's BRIC fund at the start either. They struck me as jumping on the band wagon and late to the party. Very glad I didn't. It was offered at 10, late last year, around market peaks, then dropped below 9 this year. The corrections made it interesting to get back in though in Jan, Feb, Mar etc with some drip feeding/ baht cost veraging.

If anything, the dips this year have provided some good buying opportunities in many markets, not just in Thailand, and in my view still do. Baht cost averaging has made the earlier dips we had very pleasant , so Thai Good Gov, BRIC, ABEG etc all look even better in terms of performance to date when you factor in the baht cost averaging.

Edited May 21, 2008 by AFKAFSinLOS

[KhunG]

This whole thing is crazy. Many people got in trouble because their interest rates increased which caused their payments to increase. Then they could not afford their payments. If the banks just refinanced them to a lower fixed rate, instead of the very high rates of their adjustable mortgages, then most of the people would be able to make their mortgage payment. Then there would be fewer defaults on the loans.

The reason is because the people on those kinds of loans tend to be high risk, and the bank agrees to a lower rate at the start to get them in, but a higher rate later to cover the higher risk and subsidized initial years.

Plus, the banks now are hanging onto their money, and are very, very afraid to lend most anybody money. This creates a credit crunch and the whole mess. They should just go back to the normal way, before they gave people loans with 0% down, or loans where people only pay the interest. Plenty of loans to people that are not a great risk for defaulting on their loan.

I tried to refinance my home in the US a couple of months ago. No lender would give me the money. This is with good credit rating, and about 67% equity in the home, which is leased out for the last 4 years at $300 more than the mortgage payment. Refinancing would get me a lower rate and make the extra after the mortgage even more. I could pay mortgages on 3 houses like this one and leave them empty and still have enough money to live. But unfortunately since I have been in Asia, I mised a mortgage payment almost a year ago. Since I do them online and do not get statements reminding me, I forgot one month when I was quite busy with work. 30 days late, so now, no mortgage company will lend me money. How fcuked up is that? They are over reacting causing even more of a problem.

Perhaps because they are investment properties rather than your home? Those are the properties being walked away from in the coastal markets where property values are dropping after the bubble there, which may worry the banks. I refinanced in the beginning of March, and got a 4.875% 15 year fixed (vs my old 7.25% 30 year fixed) on my primary residence with two phone calls, a fax and a closing.

[NovaBlue05]

Perhaps because they are investment properties rather than your home? Those are the properties being walked away from in the coastal markets where property values are dropping after the bubble there, which may worry the banks. I refinanced in the beginning of March, and got a 4.875% 15 year fixed (vs my old 7.25% 30 year fixed) on my primary residence with two phone calls, a fax and a closing.

Same here. Refinanced down to 5% , 15 year fixed with no points in March. A couple of phone calls and closed online with Wachovia. No fuss....No muss.

Two other banks wanted to refinance me as well.

[AFKAFSinLOS]

As an optimist, I'd say we're pretty close to the bottom on the recent small downturns. ....

As a lovely Thai nurse would say... There, there, that wasn't too bad was it.

We're on our way up... Don't be discouraged by the sandpaper phase...it may not be quick, but it's coming...

I thought I'd "do a Bingo" and resurrect one of my own threads... There still seems a lot of overdone doom and gloom. Still a lot of panic in the market. Still a lot of people who are worried. For me, I still think that's the time to consider buying!

The average of all the markets I follow, and have an interest in are down about 5% over 3 months since I first posted this on April Fool's Day. (Just a coincidence honest!). My own performance has been a bit better, partly due to reasonable diversification and positioning, and partly as I've been a net regular buyer, using cost averaging...but that said still negative.

Hence, rather than pick market movements at a time favourable to my call, I've deliberately chosen about the worst time in the last couple of months that I could. Even then, after picking the worst time, I still think we're "close to the bottom", after a few ups and downs. We've seen rises of over 5%, and then pull backs again, giving me confidence we're close to the bottoms. i.e no drastic corrections... I could also have picked a month ago and shown a 5%-6% rise, and said "I told you so".. in the way some posters like to cherry pick their timings...

This also supports my view, I also still think we're in the "sandpaper phase" as first coined by Bob Farell. That phase where equity investors feel hopeless after markets fall, then go up and down for a while, so that many investors start to feel they will never mark money in these markets again.

My call: the risks still look greater in missing out on the upside, compared to how low can we go...Yes still some possible downside (there's always the possibility of going down), but more scope for upside... So anyone like myself in there for the long haul should be feeling comfortable... hang in there and wait to ride that wave...

BTW On the SET vs Shanghai: SET has very little downside vs a nice comfortable gain/upside for the patient investor. China has more potential upside long term, but with higher downside risk for the impatient among us. For both I believe upside exceeds downside...

Providing you're not looking to be greedy and make a quick buck, I think these are interesting times to just buy selectively and wait. Anyone making regular interval dollar/pound/baht cost averaging over the last couple of months will also have been OK...

Edited June 30, 2008 by AFKAFSinLOS

[William Osborne]

Providing you're not looking to be greedy and make a quick buck, I think these are interesting times to just buy selectively and wait. Anyone making regular interval dollar/pound/baht cost averaging over the last couple of months will also have been OK...

agree with you, think this month is a great time to get in as there are real opportunities out there.

My biggest dilema is trying to whittle down my choices to 4-5 companies I want to buy in when i get paid next week !!! Its like being in a candy store at the moment !!

[midas]

Providing you're not looking to be greedy and make a quick buck, I think these are interesting times to just buy selectively and wait. Anyone making regular interval dollar/pound/baht cost averaging over the last couple of months will also have been OK...

agree with you, think this month is a great time to get in as there are real opportunities out there.

My biggest dilema is trying to whittle down my choices to 4-5 companies I want to buy in when i get paid next week !!! Its like being in a candy store at the moment !!

What are your thoughts about Golden Land ?!

[basjke]

Providing you're not looking to be greedy and make a quick buck, I think these are interesting times to just buy selectively and wait. Anyone making regular interval dollar/pound/baht cost averaging over the last couple of months will also have been OK...

agree with you, think this month is a great time to get in as there are real opportunities out there.

My biggest dilema is trying to whittle down my choices to 4-5 companies I want to buy in when i get paid next week !!! Its like being in a candy store at the moment !!

If I was you I would stay of the candy because it could give you a very bad toothache.

[LaoPo]

Providing you're not looking to be greedy and make a quick buck, I think these are interesting times to just buy selectively and wait. Anyone making regular interval dollar/pound/baht cost averaging over the last couple of months will also have been OK...

agree with you, think this month is a great time to get in as there are real opportunities out there.

My biggest dilema is trying to whittle down my choices to 4-5 companies I want to buy in when i get paid next week !!! Its like being in a candy store at the moment !!

If I was you I would stay of the candy because it could give you a very bad toothache.

I fully agree; Mr. Osborne better stay far away from the candy store for at least a month or 2-3.....buying now is almost a sin.

LaoPo

[basjke]

As an optimist, I'd say we're pretty close to the bottom on the recent small downturns.

One of the big uncertainties has been which banks would be left without a chair when the music stops. The music being in this case "Subprime unexposed symphony".

And are you still sure we had reached the bottom on your published date?

I think now the big uncertainty is which banks will be left WITH a chair when the music stops and not only that but also when the music stops I'm afraid they not gonna need a lot of chairs anymore.

[LaoPo]

Providing you're not looking to be greedy and make a quick buck, I think these are interesting times to just buy selectively and wait. Anyone making regular interval dollar/pound/baht cost averaging over the last couple of months will also have been OK...

agree with you, think this month is a great time to get in as there are real opportunities out there.

My biggest dilema is trying to whittle down my choices to 4-5 companies I want to buy in when i get paid next week !!! Its like being in a candy store at the moment !!

If I was you I would stay of the candy because it could give you a very bad toothache.

I fully agree; Mr. Osborne better stay far away from the candy store for at least a month or 2-3.....buying now is almost a sin.

LaoPo

Some people on TV say I'm a gloom and doom sayer and guess what.......

I have been too optimistic

2008-05-21 AFKASinLOS: "As you say it's been a good year so far for investing in Thailand in quite a few ways. SET was up another 1.19% today at 884. Not long now for those ten year highs " biggrin.gif

Where are you AFKAS ?

LaoPo

[basjke]

Providing you're not looking to be greedy and make a quick buck, I think these are interesting times to just buy selectively and wait. Anyone making regular interval dollar/pound/baht cost averaging over the last couple of months will also have been OK...

agree with you, think this month is a great time to get in as there are real opportunities out there.

My biggest dilema is trying to whittle down my choices to 4-5 companies I want to buy in when i get paid next week !!! Its like being in a candy store at the moment !!

If I was you I would stay of the candy because it could give you a very bad toothache.

I fully agree; Mr. Osborne better stay far away from the candy store for at least a month or 2-3.....buying now is almost a sin.

LaoPo

Some people on TV say I'm a gloom and doom sayer and guess what.......

I have been too optimistic

2008-05-21 AFKASinLOS: "As you say it's been a good year so far for investing in Thailand in quite a few ways. SET was up another 1.19% today at 884. Not long now for those ten year highs " biggrin.gif

Where are you AFKAS ?

LaoPo

If you take a look at his profile you may assume that Afkas has his reasons for not replying.

[LaoPo]

Thanks basjke ! I missed that...

LaoPo