So: When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

[LaoPo]

So: When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

I am stunned that I didn't notice this topic* before in the Phuket forum, from almost 4 weeks ago, but I'm even more stunned that the topic didn't get the attention it deserved.

Phuket tourism DROPPED ALMOST -16% in the first 3 months, Jan>>March, this year !

* http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Phuket-Touri...tu-t198179.html

I didn't expect the numbers to be so dramatic as I expected in my topic but that it was so soon was a shock to me.

The numbers were written here and are from TAT although I tried to get the numbers from TAT's website but didn't succeed, unfortunately:

http://phuketwan.com/article/tourism/phuke...ownturn-feared/

some excerpts:

But visitors from Britain, where housing prices are in decline, fell dramatically from 55,593 last year to 29,471 this year.

...US visitors dropped from 18,798 to 11,298. A total of 23,150 Americans visited in the first three months of 2006.

Russians....fell from 49,234 for the first three months of 2007 to 39,071 this year. Japanese numbers were cut in half, from 22,452 to 11,529.

China fell from 49,022 to 36,704. Taiwan continued to slide from large pre-tsunami numbers, dropping from 11,721 to 7,085. Korean numbers held at 32,856, a long way below the 2006 figure of 64,110.

Only 30,781 Germans made the journey in 2008 compared to 44,642 in 2007.

Some other countries increased, but not enough to make up for the drop of 16%

LaoPo

[lostagain]

Well the OP did say "long haul". As my flight to/from BKK is an an escruciating 20+ hours in sardine class each way I feel I qualify.

... On the other hand with increased oil prices will come increased heating bills and for some people it might be cheaper to spend the winter months in Thailand instead of in their own country. ....

That assumes those people do not have to make an daily appearance somewhere in there own country in order to afford to eat and sleep under a roof. There are people like that, but are they the majority of the tourist trade for Thailand ??

The increase in price of long haul flights is such a small percentage of the total money spent on the entire holiday, that for most people, it won't make any difference. Expect a small dip in tourist numbers.

Depends on you definition of "most people" (include me out as the airfare is about 30-35%).

Thailand is a Grade B tourist destination overall - meaning it doesnt attract the super rich but moreover the middle class type income earner. This demographic is / will be affected by the large fare increases for flights to this part of the world.

Those who are fortunate enough not to care what it cost will spend what they want and go where they want ... be it Bankock, Paris, London, New York, Rio, Tokyo or Tyler, Texas. Those numbers will not be affected. Note that most of the seats in those "long haul" flights landing at BKK are not located in front of the curtain.

The increase in travel cost will affect the middle income group the most. This will not only affect Thailand but the world in general. Less people will travel. People that do travel will travel closer to home. That includes single males looking for "economical adult oriented entertainment" (those dollars, pounds, and yen do not grow on trees).

So will farang stop coming to Thailand. Not likely, but the demographics are likely to change and the overall numbers are likely to change as well.

The reasons I chose to visit Thailand now:

1) Well I have always wanted to.

2) I do not stay in 5 star hotels.

3) For the last 8 months the US Dollar has been gaining on the Baht

. . .(now about even with where it was in April of 2007).

4) It seems that future airfare cost may be prohibitive.

Edited August 5, 2008 by lostagain

[thaimate]

i know that my brother who comes here on buisness and stays at our house has cut his trips, he was going to bring the familly wife and two kids to stay at a resort,but decided against it as the cost was just to great.he is by no means short of a few bob ,so it just goes to show that even the high end traveller is having second thoughts.

[britmaveric]

Excellent less farang means better time for us all.

[LaoPo]

Excellent less farang means better time for us all.

...and worse for the Thai people in the service- and tourism industry; more poor people...

Is that what you want Brit ?

LaoPo

[lardy]

OIl prices falling now and so has my air fair down from £620 to £597 I have to fly from Birmingham I could go a bit cheaper on China airlines but am in the Emirates flyer program and only few miles short of my next free trip

[britmaveric]

Crap - lower oil prices are causing more farang to come now.

[jumnien]

I'm all for Asian tourists coming to Thailand but the thought of more farangs here is disgusting! Enough is enough already!

[dumball]

Just tried to book a flight to Bangkok for October, and cheapest I could get direct was £624 ($1248). The same last year was just £422!!

I think that's enough of a hike to put a lot of people off don't you think??

It will get worse I'm afraid.

The rising fuel prices* and local (country) taxes AND fewer planes/seats makes it logical to increased seat prices.

* curious if airlines will lower the prices since oil dropped substantially the past few weeks.

LaoPo

2 weeks ago i flew from Phnom penh to Bkk , cost , 3,500 Baht , flight back on monday was 7,000 Baht (including airport tax) .

[LaoPo]

Amazing isn't it, how some people consider themselves having more rights to be/come in/to Thailand than others...Amazing indeed.

When I came to Thailand for the first time the country had a mere 1,2 - 1,5 million tourist - TOTAL !.

In 2007 LOS had 14,4 Million tourists

So, do I have more rights to be in Thailand than others ?

You tell me.

LaoPo

[scotwumman]

Yes LaoPo it is amazing and usually the same people who cannot abide tourists being part of ThaiVisa even they are looking for information on settling as they once did -settle, I mean, maybe they were always the smart type no information required.

I should imagine it will not only be airfares bringing down 'farang' tourism but also this very attitude becoming more apparent in recent years.

Thankfully the attractions the country has to offer, particularly to younger males it must be said, will withstand this sort of attitude.

Have a nice day in paradise, soon be the high season another reason poor farang mugs arrive in their droves is the lure of sun in wintertime

[philstone]

Excellent less farang means better time for us all.

...and worse for the Thai people in the service- and tourism industry; more poor people...

Is that what you want Brit ?

LaoPo

Its up to the tourism industry better service more Tourist. Maybe they will have to try harder to make the Tourist feel more wanted not just his money. More poor people up to the industry.

[elliss]

Will airfares keep going up?

We have heard that air travel is changing for the past 3 or so years..

The Airbus 380 uses no more fuel than a normal Jumbo, but carries double the passengers.. I can see in a very short few years the only long haul flights are with airliners that have planes with 400 – 600 seat

Therefore it will be short haul that will look more expensive and with Europe being far more expensive, Asia will look very attractive still..

There again we have heard that places like Thailand are looking for a better/higher class of holiday makers.

Myself have not flown anywhere for the past 5 years and still have many more years of places to go in Thailand, but before retiring here noticed year after year that no matter where you went from in the UK ALL flight were getting fuller, the days have long gone where you could go to Canada, USA, Asia with the plane less than ½ full

[elliss]

Excellent less farang means better time for us all.

recently read an article ,

tourist authority of thailand ,

are to concentrate on attracting more chinese visitors ..

maybe , the chinese are a higher quality farang ..

nee how

[Heng]

Ni hao.

[LaoPo]

maybe , the chinese are a higher quality farang ..

nee how

It might be a big surprise to you (and others) that the average Chinese tourist has a higher average expenditure in Thai Baht on a daily basis on holiday in Thailand than the average European tourist and slightly less than the average US tourist or Ozzie but higher than the Kiwi

Does that say anything about the Chinese or the Farang tourist ? You tell me

But, the average Chinese tourist has less money to spend than his Western counterpart....so: who is the higher quality ?

Table_Summary_2007.xls

LaoPo

[dougieboy]

I think that tourism in Thailand may change over the next few years, but it will not come to a halt. Perhaps less less riff-raff and more family holidays. Perhaps new riff-raff from countries who haven't in the past produced large amounts of visitors to Thailand. I think increases in aviation fuel will cull a lot of the no-necks.

You'll have lots of high brow sorts such as yourself to debate why the no-necks shouldnt be allowed to breathe the same air as the educated chattering classes. Should be a hoot doesnt one think.

Single blokes will always have money for holidays, families have other priorities.

Correct! Last time I flew to Thai with my wife the aircraft was predominantly single males heading directly to Pattaya and practising their sawasdees with the air hostesses, lol if only i were 20 again ha ha

[LaoPo]

BUMP:

So, is Thai inbound tourism rising or dropping ?

And: what's the forecast for the high Xmas season ?

Anybody ?

LaoPo

[Boifromoz]

Hmm regardless of the price of oil or anything to do with the economy, because personally, the only thing to change for me is my investment pension and as I will not retire for 40 years it doesnt affect me.

An return ticket to Thailand is about 1-2 weeks wage in Oz, from there, any farang is in for the screwing of a lifetime, from the moment you get off that plane you get ripped off by your taxi driver, welcome to Thailand now gimme ur money scumbag, so you eventually get to ur hotel, usually the scenic route if its a metred cab, so you get to your hotel where they try to sell you your room for double its original price, have a very quick shower incase they try to add the price of electricity to your bill, have a shower go for a bite to eat, after you stand there for 10 minutes saying excuse me to the waiter who seems to be sleep walking, you may eventually get some food that you just paid triple for than the Thai guy standing next to you, so you get back to your hotel and ask for an internet password to be told to "wait" while the hotel staff are eating... so it goes on and on and on and on....

Apart from the cheap airfares and cheap sex its really not worth all the hassle to go there, for my next holliday im sure gonna spend a bit more going somewhere else....

[Thai at Heart]

Tried yesterday to redeem an airmiles ticket with Thai. I was shocked to see that the fuel surcharge still makes up 50% of the ticket. When these lower fuel surcharges work their way to the end price, will tickets become cheap as chips and allow tourists to benefit? Is it feasible to see tickets Europe Bangkok at 20 to 25k and a rise in tourism because of it?

Edited October 30, 2008 by Thai at Heart

[yabaaaa]

Prices of flights for me vary according to season best is mid £440 up to £600+ from the UK. Now my airline seems to have abandoned the seasonal adjustments and made it a level £580 for all flights. Emirates airline, wont stop me coming unless work dries up in the UK.

[Chivas]

Just paid 468 UK -BKK late november for a month which I consider to be high(er) season but still airfare was showing 279 pounds as taxes/charges etc !!

Chivas

[Ulysses G.]

Hmm regardless of the price of oil or anything to do with the economy, because personally, the only thing to change for me

An return ticket to Thailand is about 1-2 weeks wage in Oz, from there, any farang is in for the screwing of a lifetime, from the moment you get off that plane you get ripped off by your taxi driver, welcome to Thailand now gimme ur money scumbag, ...

Apart from the cheap airfares and cheap sex its really not worth all the hassle to go there, for my next holliday im sure gonna spend a bit more going somewhere else....

I've lived in Thailand for 20 years and your supposed experience is hard to relate to. If you are polite and plan carefully, you save a lot of money compared to other countries.

[PeaceBlondie]

Hmm regardless of the price of oil or anything to do with the economy, because personally, the only thing to change for me

An return ticket to Thailand is about 1-2 weeks wage in Oz, from there, any farang is in for the screwing of a lifetime, from the moment you get off that plane you get ripped off by your taxi driver, welcome to Thailand now gimme ur money scumbag, ...

Apart from the cheap airfares and cheap sex its really not worth all the hassle to go there, for my next holliday im sure gonna spend a bit more going somewhere else....

I've lived in Thailand for 20 years and your supposed experience is hard to relate to. If you are polite and plan carefully, you save a lot of money compared to other countries.

Likewise, Boifromoz's account does not resemble my first trip to BKK, Pattaya, Chiang Mai in 2003, whether with a tour guide or alone in the North. Of course, having a tour guide, staying at the Ramada on Suriwong meant we paid more, but we were well cared for. And my Chinese friend and I finally outfoxed our tuk-tuk driver by constantly chanting, "Chinatown, Chinatown, Chinatown..."

[Scott]

I think there are a couple of things that need to be taken into consideration. First of all, the majority of people who read/post on this site have a relatively strong connection to the country. They are likely to come here as long as the costs don't become prohibitive. They are motivated tourists and their destination is Thailand.

When we talk about numbers of tourists, time spent and money spent, then we are talking about a whole different category. Many families because of economics will not be considering an 'exotic' vacation. There numbers are likely to be done. Folks who might have spent a month here, may spend 3 weeks. People may travel less inside the country.

Neighboring Asian countries will likely contribute to keeping the numbers high, but whether they will be spending more or how long they will stay is another matter.

I think the tourist numbers thing is somewhat of a game anyway. Please remember there are probably thousands of people who make 'visa runs' on a tourist visa, being counted as an incoming tourist each time. There are also people who basically are here on business, but simply check the tourist box because it's very much easier than trying to get a business visa for a meeting here.

Days spent in hotels/resorts; average payment for rooms, food etc. might be a better indication of what the trend is and what market to target.

Oh wait, targeting would mean planning and that's not too common here!

[mahtin]

I think there are a couple of things that need to be taken into consideration. First of all, the majority of people who read/post on this site have a relatively strong connection to the country. They are likely to come here as long as the costs don't become prohibitive.

I am here now because my wife is Thai and wants to visit her family.

The first week she went upcountry and I stayed in BKK and got my amalgam fillings changed to composite - a massive savings that probably covered the tickets.

We are taking bus rather than domestic flights.

Right now in Lamai, Samui the girls are asking, "Where farang?"

Next year I see the wife coming at Songkran alone, me not at all.

Feb 2010 looking for retirement visa. No matter what, LOS is where I will be, barring a massive hike of the 800K.

[patongster]

Wait for the US recession to kick in. The oil price story will be yesterday's news as China and India growth slow (fewer exports to US and eventually Europe), and demand for all commodities (inc. oil, steel) slows, and the latent ramping up of oil supplies at that near-future moment finds it no longer has a market demand.

Economics 101. But something CNBC doesn't tell ya about.

Sorry for the edit - forgot to say that defense/defence companies will be the long-haul stocks to watch. You heard it here first. (now sell those Houston and Alberta assets while the gettin's good - steel too - bail on Mittal).

This guy was right on the money.

[barcelonatio]

Thailand will always have better tourism numbers than most countries due to the climate, interesting, culture, people are nice, and once there it is so much cheaper than Europe, the US, etc. Spain used to be cheap and now it is brutally expensive for what you get. The only major expense to Thailand is airfare which is about €800 Barcelona to BKK. So averaging it out it is still cheaper than spending 2 or 3 weeks in Spain.... not to mention way more interesting. I think a lot of people will retire in Thailand like the Brits do in Spain and Americans do in Costa Rica... their pensions can go so much further. It may even turn into the Asian equivalent of Florida or Palm Springs where everyone either has gray hair ... or is wearing a backpack ! One way or another Thai tourism is will be okay in the long run ... it is too cool of a country not to!

[MKAsok]

BUMP:

So, is Thai inbound tourism rising or dropping ?

And: what's the forecast for the high Xmas season ?

Anybody ?

LaoPo

No evidence of any drop in Ko Chang last week. The hotel we stayed in (Bhumiyama - Lonely Beach, fantastic place - 10% discount for return customers) was completely full the whole week. Compare this to August (low, low season I know), but still before the economic shit really hit, when I think there were only 4-5 other rooms occupied (really nice time to be there, I strongly recommend Ko Chang in August). I saw a girl in reception trying to get a room (and being turned down) complaining that all the other hotels in the area were also full (not that many in Lonely Beach, I realise, but the other main one - Siam Beach is pretty big and the Bhumiyama isn't that small). The ferry was jammed both ways (not just cars, standing room only upstairs). The island generally seemed about as busy as you would expect it to be just pre-high season. In fact, any busier and it would have been unbearable (for me - I'm fairly fussy). Don't know how significant or representative this account is, but that's my recent experience...

mk