Thailand Live Wednesday 9 October 2024

[Jingthing]

How has the US economic meltdown hit us expats, Americans, and otherwise?

[lannarebirth]

Never having found any value in stock ownership anyway, this is a fantastic market for me. I have bearish tendencies, but what i really enjoy is volatility. The S&P 500 may have fallen only 16 points last week, but it moved almost 400 points in doing so. Ideal conditions for a short term leveraged instrument trader.

[jumnien]

It's definitely made life less expensive in the short term. When the economy is roaring and stock markets are going up, I'm usually motivated to buy an airplane or boat or such toy. Not now! Life's cheap. Today I bought some ginger, broccoli, red pepper and cabbabe and made myself a nice stir fry for lunch.

[poshthai]

My 5 years excecutive bond has been affected but i can wait for the markets to get better.

[AFKAFSinLOS]

I don't have very much at all invested in either USD or US stockmarkets... The largest impact has really been the knock-on effect on other markets...

Anyone with large exposures to equities, like myself, should also consider exposure to other asset classes such as commodities, fixed income, absolute funds. With this in mind you take the rough with the smooth... Perhaps most important though is that you don't expect to make money all the time on all investments...

I'm quite happy how my net worth has stacked up in tough times... I also think it's created some interesting buying opportunities, as economic factors and fundamentals have taken a back seat to market sentiment. Sell-offs often don't discriminate meaning bargains to be had... I never like trying to time markets, but feel upside stock market potential outweighs downside. Then again over the long term upside potential usually always exceeds downside, which is why I like equities so much... FWIW I feel the risk shifted some time ago to missing out the upswing by selling to soon... Then again as one of your options says I don't care too much...

For people who like to do the "what if" scenarios on whether they can afford to retire in Thailand:

These are great opportunities to test your theories. I'd always recommend doing those type of calculations based on what money you had at the worst point in the cycle, when it's clearly passed, not when feeling good at the top, as too many people often do. Then for good measure repeat the losses you've just had...And if you can still retire comfortably go for it...

So overall, teeny weeny impact and the lessons reconfirmed, and thoughts it provokes are worth it...

Edited July 14, 2008 by AFKAFSinLOS

[bendix]

Minimal impact for me. I don't have much (only around 2-3 million baht equivalent) in equities. The bulk of my savings are in cash in NZ and Australia, waiting for the waters to get less choppy. Of course, the high interest rates there are being nearly matched by inflation, but nothing too disastrous yet.

[PeaceBlondie]

Teensy bit. Equities are stuffed away for the final years. I think my Dad was totally in equities until around age 75 or 80. Over the last 20 years, I have done okay, although it looks bad for now.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Moved all of our $ out of the US years ago so the stock market has essentially no impact on us. I have a great deal of sympathy for the people that are being negatively impacted by it, and hopefully things will get better soon. But as a casual observer I don't see any reason for things to get better for some time. With billions more of tax payer money going to support failing banks and mortgage companys, eventually someone has to pay the piper.

Normally I try to look at the positive side of things but it is tough to see any positive side for the US economy right now.

[GuestHouse]

I've been impacted by the knock on impact to the extent that my last year's stock market gains have almost but not completely disappeared - but only one of my stocks has fallen below what I paid, so I think 'Moderate Impact' would be about right.

On the other hand the rise in the price of oil as boosted the O&G business into warp drive, so a moderate swing back and a huge leap forward.

[Crushdepth]

It doesn't bother me. I always intended to invest for long term and most of my holdings have been held for a long time anyway. A lot of the 'paper profit' has disappeared, which is annoying, but hey that's the nature of the stockmarket. I'm less concerned about the sub-prime meltdown (a mere blip on the long-term economic radar) than I am about oil price (which is not).

[Firefan]

It does annoy me. Am down 6% for the year so not that bad. But like others I can not help reducing my spending even when not really logically needed. I guess that is a healthly reaction rather than just blindly spending away no matter what our nest egg does.

Cheers!

[wintermute]

Minimal impact. I started the year almost complete in short positions and after the April-May rally I refreshed those short positions to continue the downhill slalom. Ultrashort ETF's, SPY, and the only stocks I own are commodities related although i've started to pare those down quite a bit taking profit along the way.

[wolfmanjack]

No impact at all since i don't own any stocks. If it goes down too much though i might buy some.

[vagabond48]

Not much impact on my portfolio since I only have a small % invested the US and international stock markets and don't intend to touch the money for many years to come. In fact, these downturns have been buying opportunities to slowly bring my % of stock up.

[ace]

30% down on the pension but have taken my ISA today. At least I didn't buy it 3 months ago

Upside: Pension fund still relatively small, working a good contract, in Euro, and it's likely to run, buying opportunity.

[Gary A]

As of today, my nest egg has taken a 25 percent hit. Actually not quite that much because I am still getting dividends from the "SAFE" ETF's that my broker recommended. It appears that my kids are going to inherit less than before.

[ericjt]

Anyone relying on a USD based pension has taken about a 25% hit against the Thai Baht in the last year or so, even with prices not rising. And with inflation in Thailand now moving toward 10%/year and food/fuel prices rising even faster, anyone who is retired and depending on a fixed amount of USD retirement income is dealing with a 30%+ drop in purchasing power. That's painful. Add to that any losses in equities, and there are people hurting.

It's not quite as bad inside the US, because they don't feel the drop of the dollar against other currencies, but there are other factors there, like the drop in housing values, layoffs, and the high fixed costs many people have built in to their standard of living (high mortgage payments, high car payments, many layers of taxes, large cars that burn a lot of gasoline, expensive health care, long commutes to work, etc) that add to the pain there.

[Straight8]

I am astonished to read that almost 40% of votes either has not affected them or actually enjoyed thing down turn.

I also find it hard to believe as this would have affected almost everyone either directly or indirectly.

Unless your a genius at shorting stock, or cashed out at the right time, the depreciation in the value of homes, superannuation, the rise in cost of living, airfares etc etc & I doubt anyone would not have been affected.

[bendix]

Well, to answer your queston Straight.

I only have around 6-8% in stocks. So the impact is minimal.

I'm cashed up and getting 8 - 8.5% returns.

I sold my home in NZ 18 months ago, at the top of the market.

Rising cost of living - I suppose it's a pain, but my major costs (rent, car payments etc are static and fixed). The rest is barely noticeable. An extra 1000 baht a month for fuel? Hardly worth losing sleep over, is it?

Airfares? Business expenses - not a problem, and use airpoints for everything else?

:-)

[Jingthing]

Well, I did ask about the falling stock market, not the weak dollar. So that implies some kind of direct participation in the US stock market.

My net worth is down about 17 percent in a year, so I voted major pain, as I both feel poorer and am poorer. Most people I talk to in the US are hurting due to the bad economy there, but it wouldn't be as simple to only blame the stock market (which of course reacts to bad news real and imagined).

Edited July 23, 2008 by Jingthing

[britmaveric]

I'm actually up 20%, so I am quite chuffed. Even if I weren't up - need to think long term if you are playing the market - good time to invest is now. Buy low, sell high.

I'd hardly say this was a crash, more a correction.

[Jingthing]

Your're correct, crash is not the right word. Bear market is more like it. It is much more than a correction though.

[lannarebirth]

Your're correct, crash is not the right word. Bear market is more like it. It is much more than a correction though.

Sure it's a correction. A correction of time. People seem to forget markets are a function of time and price, not only price. Markets going sideways for 9 years. Sideways is a direction.

http://tuttleassetmanagement.com/media/med...021508-1150.gif

Edited July 23, 2008 by lannarebirth

[Jingthing]

I might be the time to revive this topic and poll. Alan Greenspan called the recent financial meltdown in the US (and now internationally) as a "once in a century event." I know I am feeling it!

[GuestHouse]

I've been impacted by the knock on impact to the extent that my last year's stock market gains have almost but not completely disappeared - but only one of my stocks has fallen below what I paid, so I think 'Moderate Impact' would be about right.

On the other hand the rise in the price of oil as boosted the O&G business into warp drive, so a moderate swing back and a huge leap forward.

I need to revise that....

Stocks I bought over the last two years are now almost all at zero profit. Stocks I bought in the last year are all in the negative right now.

(Work front is still booming... )

Edited September 19, 2008 by GuestHouse

[kedawi]

Here’s a doom and gloom scenario. Anyone want to cheer it up a little?

The US govt props up ailing property financiers, a US bank folds and a recession in some western countries seems imminent.

Property prices world-wide are either crashing or going to crash...how will Thailand weather this?

I was going to buy some personal property in Thailand – a condo or two, but now I really don’t see the point. To do so I would have to sell property in/bring funds from either UK or Australia.

In UK even if I do sell I don’t want to bring any of my money out as the rate of exchange is low (i.e. I get very few baht to my pound) so even if I could sell in UK I won’t be bringing my cash to Thailand in a hurry. In fact I’m thinking of selling what I have here and converting back to sterling or Euros whichever gives a better rate compared to 5 years ago...I should make a good profit on the exchange rate alone.

Does anyone think they might bring money into Thailand at present?

All my property-owning associates say the market is dead.

Tourism is down – partly because of politics but also with high airfares and low spending power, tourists are holidaying less...........

It seems there is a general “tightening of belts” in the “West” - If this is the case with many then one can only assume that the private property sector in Thailand will take a dive too.

So am I in a minority of one or do you think that the current poor economic prospects in the developed” world are going to impinge on the situation here.

I’m not bringing my money into Thailand how about the rest of you?

[GuestHouse]

I would not buy property anywhere right now - OK maybe a bargain that comes up in New York or London - but selling a property in the UK (at a time when virtually noone is buying) to buy what is almost certainly an overpriced property in Thailand - foolhardy.

And don't go thinking those calls by politicos in Thailand to throw out all foreigners are simple folk talking simple rubbish - They could have a very signficant impact on expat property prices in Thailand.

[ya5702]

Absolutely not! I made a smart move...I bought a condo in BKK!

[ya5702]

Absolutely not! I made a smart move...I bought a condo in BKK!

...liquidated all my paper investments 12months ago, and bought a condo in BKK!

[007]

How has the US economic meltdown hit us expats, Americans, and otherwise?

Yes, and no. I am up to the neck invested in equities, so yes, my holdings have lost in value. But also no, as I am in it long-term, and I haven't sold or realised losses.