Is Thailand's Future More Grim Than People Think?

[lannarebirth]

Typical post having no idea of what the Thai economy is about. Only talks about tourism and rice. Though both are important components, they are not the leading ones.

Are you aware that Thailand is a major exporter of manufactured goods and not just the unskilled labor items like textiles, but things like electronics and automobile? Thailand is the second leading exporter in the world of pickup trucks, over half the hard drives in world are made in Thailand. They have large and growing petrochemical business. I’m not saying that there are not problems, but people have to understand what drives the economy and tourism and rice are just part, and really some of the smaller parts.

I posted this link in another thread, certainly should go here as well. Hope some of you will actually read some the reports and get a much better idea about the Thai economy.

Economic Reports

TH

Yes, I was aware of the pickup trucks but didn't mention them, partly because I think China is in the long run going to be much more interested in the rice basket capabilities of Thailand. The era of cheap food is over. I recall a recent pronouncement from the Thai government that Thailand is going to become even more of an agriculturally based economy than it already is. With global warming, yes I think it is real, food and water are going to be as or more important as fuel.

No, I am not an optimist. I find attaching silly hopes and emotions to such things as the global power shifting to be irrational. Yes, I kind of am considering perhaps China will get out of hand as the US becomes more powerless. They are not a benign power. Their government is a totalitarian state. Again, look at Burma.

The USA, which has also not been a benign world power has something called the Monroe doctrine. This has rationalized making most of its geographical neighbors puppets of the USA. Rebels like Cuba have payed a big price. There have been many historical invasions by the US in the region. Do you seriously think a world power as emerging China is becoming, with a now huge military, will be any LESS aggressive over time to its neighbors than the USA?

To the poster who metioned farangs in Thailand. Yes, I agree we will become even less important than we already are here, which isn't very important to start with.

I think a more relevant question to ask is "can the communist party maintain power in it's own country", rather than "will Thailand become a puppet of China". As for the rice basket nature of Thailand commodities are priced the same for global buyers. They'll sell China all they want, I'm sure.

Edited August 14, 2008 by lannarebirth

[Jingthing]

I think a more relevant question to ask is "can the communist party maintain power in it's own country", rather than "will it become a puppet of China". As for the rice basket nature of Thailand commodities are priced the same for global buyers. They'll sell China all they want, I'm sure.

Yeah, sure they will, but China might want a special deal, no? Controlling the production of such a nearby source of the primary food staple in a world of expensive energy, of over a billion people, maybe a bit tempting? And like Burma, there are local factions here that would be fat and happy cooperating with such an arrangement.

"can the communist party maintain power in it's own country",

That is also a good question but a new government would not necessarily be good news for the rest of the world. It depends on what kind of government. The current Chinese government is totalitarian for sure but hardly has much to do at all anymore with traditional communist ideology.

Edited August 14, 2008 by Jingthing

[canuckamuck]

Canuck, well you went a little further than I would although I suspect you were being satirical. I wouldn't demonize China, any more than I would demonize the USA or Russia. Its just what super powers with large armies do, they use them. Is China so special? Seems doubtful.

Another perspective. There are alot more Chinese in the world than Thais. So for the benefit of the masses, China's emerging dominance could be seen as GOOD NEWS. Cheery enough for you?

Yeah I'm a bit bored, just amusing myself. What I am realliy afraid of is that the Cheeky Girls might have a comeback album.

[zaza]

The future usually comes apace (as Shakespeare had said), that is why it's so hard to predict it.

[a2396]

Thailand is in my opiniona unique situation.Of course this does not immunise from world markets

THE USP for tourism is favourable.

Superb environment welcoming to PAYING GUESTS and not spongers welfare tourists or wasters

Very cheap relative to Western economies

A real historic documented living non-colonised Bhuddist culture.

Sukothai has more historical places of interest IMHO than Canada US and Oz put together.

While archaeology is not everyones bag the restrained timed out nightlife of Bangkok Patong and Pattaya still offer delights that puritan Washington Frozen Moscow wealthy but prudish Dubai cannot offer to the jaded palette.How many westerners have found Saudi wife? Thai women still love to love lucky us.

For the expat and tourist look at the competition in the region

Indonesia Poor Sleazy corrupt and Muslim

Malaysia as above with ex colonial attitude to Indians and institutionalized Racism and buggery passion

Vietnam gougers visa hassles

China have you tried working there I did ,living no thanks

India visa nightmare

Timor Leste, Cambodia,Philipinnes S lanka guerilla horrors grinding poverty and corruption

The only places with quality good climes like Oz Caribean Med cost a lot more and a v restrictive if non native.Retiring to Somalia Bolivia Cuba Saudi Araboia any takers I think not,its much nicer here.

The Thai economy is based on good fundamentals and while poorly managed it mainly stays here and foreign control is ltd.New links and proximity to China and India must be advantages.

Perhaps the canal thru the Isthmus of Kra will never happen but how many folks will wish to have anAfghan massage en route Sydney Europe?

Rice Oil Pal Oil tourism combined to complacent un-unionised workforce who do not expect universal health care proper univeristies health care and welfare is a superb environment for naked capitalism if not for social cohesion or individual rights.

Of course why look in the Crystal Ball when you can read the book.Moodys and standard and Poors will do it for you.

Chok Dee

You forgot the Mediteranean coast. Probably one of the most beautiful place on earth, best place in the world for historical sites, and with the opening of former comunist countries, very cheap too!

You mean places like Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Libya, Cypres or Monaco & Cote d'Azur - certainly cheap there. What about Albania?

[Maizefarmer]

Now we have a rising China and India, a hurting America, and a rich Russia.

Thailand can't really compete with China for slave labor and its education system is way inferior to both India and China. It is xenophobic and protectionist compared to an advanced small country like Singapore. The English standard is horrible; even the educated Chinese are learning English. Tourism is always an earner and tourism will increase from China and India and decline from the west (energy costs) but as many have noticed, Thailand has a special talent of killing the goose that lays the golden egg. Its politics have been mired in crisis for years, and there is no clear resolution in sight. The rice price increase is one bit of positive news.

So, how does Thailand fit in this new world order, especially in relation to China (look what happened to Burma)>

It doesn't - and the point(s) you raise are an excellent summary of the problems this country faces in coming years. Lurking at the heart of Thai politics are a core of prominent and influential backroom nationalists whose attitudes are not to dissimilair to those of the Burmese Generals - xenophobic and protectionist.

One thing going for this country ( ... and its not tourism - tourism can be brought to a grinding halt overnight by the Southern seperatists) - American foreign policy: the USA makes no secret of how important Thailand is in it's South East Asian foreign policy program i.e. would it let Thailand go pear shaped? For the near/medium term - not likely, but what about 10 - 20 years time - who will be the dominating foreign policy influence to/in Thailand? Will it be the USA, or will it be China?

[bingobongo]

Now we have a rising China and India, a hurting America, and a rich Russia.

Thailand can't really compete with China for slave labor and its education system is way inferior to both India and China. It is xenophobic and protectionist compared to an advanced small country like Singapore. The English standard is horrible; even the educated Chinese are learning English. Tourism is always an earner and tourism will increase from China and India and decline from the west (energy costs) but as many have noticed, Thailand has a special talent of killing the goose that lays the golden egg. Its politics have been mired in crisis for years, and there is no clear resolution in sight. The rice price increase is one bit of positive news.

So, how does Thailand fit in this new world order, especially in relation to China (look what happened to Burma)>

here we go again. a bunch of negative insinuations/assumptions without any tangible facts. all in all nothing but bla-bla starting with an "innocent" question and ending with one; no other intention than putting Thailand down!

have you started working on your chauffeur license for baht buses Jingthing?

come one Naam, it appears senility prevents you from being objective

[roamer]

Now we have a rising China and India, a hurting America, and a rich Russia.

Thailand can't really compete with China for slave labor and its education system is way inferior to both India and China. It is xenophobic and protectionist compared to an advanced small country like Singapore. The English standard is horrible; even the educated Chinese are learning English. Tourism is always an earner and tourism will increase from China and India and decline from the west (energy costs) but as many have noticed, Thailand has a special talent of killing the goose that lays the golden egg. Its politics have been mired in crisis for years, and there is no clear resolution in sight. The rice price increase is one bit of positive news.

So, how does Thailand fit in this new world order, especially in relation to China (look what happened to Burma)>

It doesn't - and the point(s) you raise are an excellent summary of the problems this country faces in coming years. Lurking at the heart of Thai politics are a core of prominent and influential backroom nationalists whose attitudes are not to dissimilair to those of the Burmese Generals - xenophobic and protectionist.

One thing going for this country ( ... and its not tourism - tourism can be brought to a grinding halt overnight by the Southern seperatists) - American foreign policy: the USA makes no secret of how important Thailand is in it's South East Asian foreign policy program i.e. would it let Thailand go pear shaped? For the near/medium term - not likely, but what about 10 - 20 years time - who will be the dominating foreign policy influence to/in Thailand? Will it be the USA, or will it be China?

And if you add to that heady brew the fact that Thailands one unifying and stabilising factor won't be around for ever....

[PREXPRESSBKK]

Though the Chinese, Indians and The Middle easterns are the new breed of consumers with lots of money and purchasing power...you will be surprised that many Thai owners like those who own the Nai Lert Park Hotel at Wireless Road simply detest having Chinese, Indian or Middle-eastern guests. even if their room occupancy is low or their f/b revenue is low..all they want is only Rich Europeans....what a joke!

[Jingthing]

the point(s) you raise are an excellent summary of the problems this country faces in coming years. Lurking at the heart of Thai politics are a core of prominent and influential backroom nationalists whose attitudes are not to dissimilair to those of the Burmese Generals - xenophobic and protectionist.

Thank you, at least somebody recognizes that I raised this issue with sincerity, mixed with my self interest as I am personally heavily invested here.

This is my main fear. Thailand goes more the way of Burma. Controlled by China and the Sino-Thai power structure here. This pre-supposes that the USA couldn't and/or wouldn't do anything of substance to prevent it or overthrow such a horrible development. As an American, I am pretty sure we are turning inward and no matter what the rhetoric, there is little appetite or money for any new adventures, no matter how important. If you don't believe that, what has the USA done to free the people of Burma? Nothing but hot air!

This is really largely what this topic is also about. Forget America as the policeman of the world anymore. It ain't happening. We have something different now, and I personally don't think its better.

BTW: I do realize this sounds paranoid. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I just don't think there is any evidence that China is any better than any other rising superpowers in history, possibly worse, and throughout history superpowers expand their control over their neighbors especially when there are vital resources to control. I am only guessing but I imagine Vietnam with their thousands year history of being controlled by China have a much better army than Thailand. Can someone confirm?

Edited August 14, 2008 by Jingthing

[LaoPo]

...you will be surprised that many Thai owners like those who own the Nai Lert Park Hotel at Wireless Road simply detest having Chinese, Indian or Middle-eastern guests. even if their room occupancy is low or their f/b revenue is low..all they want is only Rich Europeans....what a joke!

That's a fairy tale and complete nonsense.

The Swissotel Hotels & Resorts company own/operate several hotels in China, Japan, Singapore and belong to an international chain, worldwide.

They can't afford to refuse guests from the above mentioned countries. If that would be known it would ruin their business.

Apart from that, sales are done by many online sales bureaus, selling rooms worldwide, also for Swissotel Nai Lert Park.

It's not the way Hotel chains are operated these days (refusing clients because of their origin)

LaoPo

[PhilHarries]

I am only guessing but I imagine Vietnam with their thousands year history of being controlled by China have a much better army than Thailand. Can someone confirm?

I think you'll find that historically Viet Nam has a record of kicking a55 from Genghis Khan through the French, Americans to the Chinese. Whether they have a better army technically than Thailand is doubtful at present but they have proved time and again that technical superiority does not translate to battlefield victory. These littl bu66ers NEVER give up and do not know the words defeat nor surrender.

[Gary A]

The sky is NOT falling. Life goes on and Thailand continues to industrialize. Not so long ago Thailand lost most of the garment industry to China because they simply could not compete. In the past year or so, there have been two HUGE brand new garment factories built near Chaiyaphum in Issan.

The Chinese people are not going to work for starvation wages forever, nor should they. Eventually things even out no matter where in this world you look at,

[PhilHarries]

Absolutely right Gary, the Chinese workers have caught a glimpse of the capitalistic/consumerist lifestyle and they want more. I think maybe China's government may find that they've opened Pandora's box.

[zaza]

...you will be surprised that many Thai owners like those who own the Nai Lert Park Hotel at Wireless Road simply detest having Chinese, Indian or Middle-eastern guests. even if their room occupancy is low or their f/b revenue is low..all they want is only Rich Europeans....what a joke!

That's a fairy tale and complete nonsense.

The Swissotel Hotels & Resorts company own/operate several hotels in China, Japan, Singapore and belong to an international chain, worldwide.

They can't afford to refuse guests from the above mentioned countries. If that would be known it would ruin their business.

Apart from that, sales are done by many online sales bureaus, selling rooms worldwide, also for Swissotel Nai Lert Park.

It's not the way Hotel chains are operated these days (refusing clients because of their origin)

LaoPo

It's not a fairy tale and there is alot of reality in it . You have not been on the receiving end to tell whether this nonsense is practiced here or not.

The criteria that is being used to welcome or kick out those people who are obliviously afford to bay the rent for a short or long stay is all based on a (racist) attitude.

I can provide you with a long list of hotels or serviced apartments that reject having those nationalities in their residence or compound. Once I asked those (owners) to write a big board-sign on their compounds which says:

(NO ........ race-nationality allowed on here)

to spear those people who goes there to inquire there from insult and humiliation.

Funny enough;last year I was looking for an apartment for my friend who is an Iraqi woman-doctor working in BKK hospital, I found a good one that suits her needs with the usual rents that is being charged in San F. apartments in Suk 24. The owner was so happy and agreed to rent and he asked to sign the contract directly with us, but when my friend came ,he found out she is Arabic- he refused to let for her ,saying those (nationality with others mentioned above) are not allowed.

This year, I can notice a big difference in this attitude wherever I go, There is a cunning (twist) in dealing with this issue : they simply started charging those people more

It's a common practice now in hotels or hospitals who deal with (Arabs) usually.

Remarks:

*Rates are not applicable for Middle East, Indian & Japanese

Try to look for this remark whenever you book a hotel or ask them if you could book for your friend who is from those nationalities; and you'll see it is NOT a fairy tale.

Proof

Edited August 15, 2008 by zaza

[OlRedEyes]

I agree with PH that a Pandora's box has been opened. I think that despite the public line of the Olympics being a showcase to the world, the Chinese leaders are a lot more concerned about building nationalism through it at this stage as a seawall against the rising tide of a growing middle class being influenced by foreign ideas of freedom. Keeping control of a Bn+ poor peasants is a lot easier than keeping control of such a vast population in a situation where the income disparity is growing so large and so fast. Add to that the easy flow of information, which has historically been easy to control, inflation, rising costs, displacement of people and shortage of resources, it is becoming a tinderbox. Expect nationalism to be very high on the agenda.

China's neighbors will have to take note of the Russian/Georgian situation. There is a clear message that serious Western influence will not be tolerated on their doorstep. Don't expect China to be different. (For the challenged - the USA would not tolerate it either.)

So Thailand will inevitably be closer to China than presently. Small neighbors on a giants doorstep tend to not do so well economically, their main function becomes supplying the giants needs, at favourable cost. Thailand doesn't really have a lot to offer China other than rice and chickens as far as I can see. Cars? I dunno. Human resources - cheap labour - China has a plentyful supply for a long time to come. Skills - Thailand can't really offer anything China hasn't got.

In all this effects of global warming is not taken into account... the glaciers haven't stopped melting

Thailand will have to cope with loss of producing land during this time as well.

Then of course there is the small matter of the financial crisis. A year on and it is not looking any better, in fact it is starting to look distinctly nasty. Nobody will escape the effects of a collapsing world economy. Including China and Russia. Russia may be better positioned to ride it out though.

Nationalism is set to grow sharply around the world. Wars, not localized fighting, are starting to loom large.

If the great minds in Bkk could stop looking at the here and now, and their petty politics, they may be able to come up with a plan for the future but how likely is that.

Edited August 15, 2008 by OlRedEyes

[lannarebirth]

So Thailand will inevitably be closer to China than presently. Small neighbors on a giants doorstep tend to not do so well economically, their main function becomes supplying the giants needs, at favourable cost. Thailand doesn't really have a lot to offer China other than rice and chickens as far as I can see. Cars? I dunno. Human resources - cheap labour - China has a plentyful supply for a long time to come. Skills - Thailand can't really offer anything China hasn't got.

They'll come for the women, same as many others did. 1.2:1 , male:female birth ratio. I expect they'll come one at a time, just like other expats and follow the same convoluted immigration rules we do. China, the country will not be invading, nor controlling Thailand. They can barely control China. I'm sure Thailnad will continue to be welcoming of their money however.

[thaihome]

Thailand just provide the workforce, Thailand is only a production base for Japan, nothing like China who has developed its own brands/industries. Besides chicken, wich Thai company is a world leader in any field?

But you're right, most of of TV readers have absolutely no ideas what drive the economy, which probably explains the large support for the democrats and the old elite.

Could you provide some examples of China brands or industries? In my experience, virtually all of China’s export manufacturing is done as either joint venture with a foreign company or as subcontractor to foreign company.

TH

[ObertoSanchez]

When was Thailand ever up?

[Jingthing]

Well, of course, I find alot of agreement with OlRedeyes.

I have never heard any discussion of this issue, the potential of China dominating Thailand, in the Thai English language press.

Is there any in the Thai language press?

Is this a taboo subject because of the power structure here which favors Sino-Thais?

I really don't understand blind optimists. Don't they see what is brewing? Expensive energy, expensive food, expensive water on a global basis; in other words the perfect storm for SHORTAGES and WAR.

Where is the evidence we have advanced as a species to prevent what we have ALWAYS done?

Edited August 15, 2008 by Jingthing

[lannarebirth]

Well, of course, I find alot of agreement with OlRedeyes.

I have never heard any discussion of this issue, the potential of China dominating Thailand, in the Thai English language press.

Is there any in the Thai language press?

Is this a taboo subject because of the power structure here which favors Sino-Thais?

I really don't understand blind optimists. Don't they see what is brewing? Expensive energy, expensive food, expensive water on a global basis; in other words the perfect storm for SHORTAGES and WAR.

Where is the evidence we have advanced as a species to prevent what we have ALWAYS done?

You do love to kvetch. (I'll bet that's not the first time you've heard that). where is your evidence of shortages? See any lines at the gas pump? See anyone in Thailand going hungry? famine? pestilance?

I've been coming to Thailand since 1986 and lived here since 1993. It's shown steady improvement every year. China is showing steady improvement too, save for pollution, which the world is about to get on their ass about. How is it it you see things getting so much worse?

Youseem to be missing the main point of the "new China" they don't want to go to war for rice. They want o do business. Maybe their additional demand will drive prices up, but what else is new?

[Jingthing]

See anyone in Thailand going hungry?

Yes.

famine?

No

pestilance?

No, unless you count Aids and dengue

I am talking about how the stage is being set for the future. Not right now. I have made my case on the factors that I think should cause concern. Things were getting much better in Georgia for a long time also, before the tanks rolled in. And I ask again, for those deluded enough to think the USA has any real power anymore that will protect Thailand, what have they done over decades now that will really lead to freedom to the people of Burma, who are crushed by the Chinese friendly generals. Laura Bush visiting a refugee camp and shedding some crocodile tears doesn't cut it.

BTW, the political situation in Thailand has not gotten better. It is a serious mess.

Youseem to be missing the main point of the "new China" they don't want to go to war for rice. They want o do business. Maybe their additional demand will drive prices up, but what else is new?

How can you be so sure? You could say the same thing about the "new Russia" or the "new USA" ... Super powers have always dominated their neighbors. Are you saying Chinese are some kind of special people, not subject to normal human nature? Sounds kind of racist. Did you get that from a Chinese communist government press release?

BTW, the Chinese have a funny way of telling the world they don't want to go to war, or least INTIMIDATE the world. Why else build a huge army and put on a Olympics show that would have made Hitler blush.

Edited August 15, 2008 by Jingthing

[lannarebirth]

See anyone in Thailand going hungry?

Yes.

As my wife says: "even a blind dog finds food in Thailand".

So, what is your fear for Thailand then?

That the thousands of moo bans will become deserted? That the hundreds of condiminium towers will become worthless, that the thosands of resorts will become barren, that the dozens of colleges and universities will have no students? What is it you specifically are afraid of? It seems to me the thing that's got you worried the most is that evryone is not as worried as you are.

[Maizefarmer]

Now we have a rising China and India, a hurting America, and a rich Russia.

Thailand can't really compete with China for slave labor and its education system is way inferior to both India and China. It is xenophobic and protectionist compared to an advanced small country like Singapore. The English standard is horrible; even the educated Chinese are learning English. Tourism is always an earner and tourism will increase from China and India and decline from the west (energy costs) but as many have noticed, Thailand has a special talent of killing the goose that lays the golden egg. Its politics have been mired in crisis for years, and there is no clear resolution in sight. The rice price increase is one bit of positive news.

So, how does Thailand fit in this new world order, especially in relation to China (look what happened to Burma)>

It doesn't - and the point(s) you raise are an excellent summary of the problems this country faces in coming years. Lurking at the heart of Thai politics are a core of prominent and influential backroom nationalists whose attitudes are not to dissimilair to those of the Burmese Generals - xenophobic and protectionist.

One thing going for this country ( ... and its not tourism - tourism can be brought to a grinding halt overnight by the Southern seperatists) - American foreign policy: the USA makes no secret of how important Thailand is in it's South East Asian foreign policy program i.e. would it let Thailand go pear shaped? For the near/medium term - not likely, but what about 10 - 20 years time - who will be the dominating foreign policy influence to/in Thailand? Will it be the USA, or will it be China?

And if you add to that heady brew the fact that Thailands one unifying and stabilising factor won't be around for ever....

I was going to raise that very point (deleated the paragraph last moment before posting). Yes, you are correct. It's that "factor" which dampens the ultra right wingers influence in day to day Thai politics, and keeps them in their place.

[Thai at Heart]

Typical post having no idea of what the Thai economy is about. Only talks about tourism and rice. Though both are important components, they are not the leading ones.

Are you aware that Thailand is a major exporter of manufactured goods and not just the unskilled labor items like textiles, but things like electronics and automobile? Thailand is the second leading exporter in the world of pickup trucks, over half the hard drives in world are made in Thailand. They have large and growing petrochemical business. I'm not saying that there are not problems, but people have to understand what drives the economy and tourism and rice are just part, and really some of the smaller parts.

I posted this link in another thread, certainly should go here as well. Hope some of you will actually read some the reports and get a much better idea about the Thai economy.

Economic Reports

TH

Thailand just provide the workforce, Thailand is only a production base for Japan, nothing like China who has developed its own brands/industries. Besides chicken, wich Thai company is a world leader in any field?

But you're right, most of of TV readers have absolutely no ideas what drive the economy, which probably explains the large support for the democrats and the old elite.

Hmmm, China has developed it's own brands. And those monolithic brands with world wide reach would be? Haier? Anyone ever bought one of those outside China? Lenovo? That would be IBM right. Where are the international Chinese car firms? electronics firms? software firms? Where is the Chinese Samsung, Sony, Ford, Toyota, Starbucks, Canon, Apple?

Lack of international branding is one of the massive weaknesses in the Chinese business model. Ask any Chinese if he would like to own a Chery or a Honda (with all the Japanese connotations) and the answer 99% percent of the time is Honda. Not even their own consumers trust their own brands. Nike or Lining? Nokia or whatever chinese phone? Very few Chinese aspire to owning domestic brands so why would a foreigner? Chinese domestic brands have barely convinced their own populous let alone the export market.

The story about the losses that the average Chang has lost on the stockmarket in the last 6 months has been hidden behind the olympics. Inflation is taking off, and the slowdown in the US is feeding into lower growth in export industries in the mainland. This may not be a very soft landing in China, but being communist, people will probably grin and bear it. They have a solid base (but massively biased to export and assembly for export) and it is good that growth may not persist at 10%. However, they need this growth because it was absorbing hundreds of thousands of school leavers each year, and unemployment on the mainland in the prosperous cities was very low, which industries will absorb all these youngsters in China if growth is only 5%?

Wealth distribution is absolutely shocking, and domestic companies still do not allocate capital efficiently. Their fuel consumption per $ of GDP is enormous in comparison with the developed world. China has massive socio-economic issues to solve, and if this huge populous sees growth dropping, unemployment rising, inflation rising and less money in it's pocket could it lead to insurrection?

[Jingthing]

It seems to me the thing that's got you worried the most is that evryone is not as worried as you are.

I do indeed think that a proper Thai government should focus more on building their defenses. Remember what happened to Thailand in WW2. They have this myth that they can never be dominated. Well, they have been before, and without any resistance.

BTW, as food cost increases and future increased global starvation are directly linked to global warming and dependence on fossil fuels, if there is some kind of major technological breakthrough, and soon, to greatly reduce world dependence on fossil fuels, alot of this pain could be potentially prevented. But coming up with such an energy silver bullet, and soon enough, isn't probable at all

Edited August 15, 2008 by Jingthing

[lannarebirth]

It seems to me the thing that's got you worried the most is that evryone is not as worried as you are.

I do indeed think that a proper Thai government should focus more on building their defenses. Remember what happened to Thailand in WW2. They have this myth that they can never be dominated. Well, they have been before, and without any resistance.

Why should they build their defenses? They could not possibly defend the country against a superpower (not that China is one), but it's got a lot of forces. There is no defense save for the prevetative tactic of staging western bases here, which I doubt very much if that would fly.

This region hass changed a lot in the last 30 years. If you hadn't noticed there are highways leading to Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Burma and India (soon), not jungles. Commerce is creating shared interests. Is everyone benefittingequally? No, but it's a good start.

[lannarebirth]

if there is some kind of major technological breakthrough, and soon, to greatly reduce world dependence on fossil fuels, alot of this pain could be potentially prevented. But coming up with such an energy silver bullet, and soon enough, isn't probable at all

It is not Pollyannaish to be optimistic. There is no silver bullet, but there's a whole arsenal of tiny measures to be taken (and which are being take) that will lessen this "shock", if indeed it comes at all.

[OlRedEyes]

It is a very dangerous thing these days to dominate a small country by military means. There is a massive repositioning and scramble for power going on, and a chain reaction could easily be set of drawing in a real scary list of players. I am sure the leaders of China, Russia, USA, India etc. are acutely aware of this. Nobody wants it, except maybe a country like Iran.

Russia's move on Georgia was simply a short and very sharp message, to Georgia and its similarly minded ex USSR friends, as well as to the West. All big players want trade right now. USA is in serious debt, it needs trade. Russia needs trade to build it's energy domination. China needs trade to prevent the economic expansion it started turning into an almighty explosion at home.

China's domination of SEA will come through economic and political pressure, hardly military. Military muscle is needed to back up the big countries' jockeying for power and resources. Let's hope it doesn't turn into a game of chicken.....

BTW, I don't think Thailand building military defenses makes any sense, or any small country for that matter. The big Brother a country is aligned with will supply that if needed against another small aggressor. Against a large aggressor it is pissing into the wind.

This may be an advantage smaller countries could exploit by channeling the money they would have spent on defence into economic development, as someone pointed out Singapore did. Doubt whether many politicians and, especially, generals will have the balls for that though.

Edited August 15, 2008 by OlRedEyes

[cloudhopper]

I do indeed think that a proper Thai government should focus more on building their defenses. Remember what happened to Thailand in WW2.

IMO the days of WW2 style invading for natural resources is over. As LRB pointed out, the new weapon in world domination is business acumen, and as TaH pointed out, the Chinese still have a long way to go in that regard (as does LOS).

The near breakout of war between India and Pakistan several years ago was essentially prevented by threats from the US and others to withdraw trade.