Is Thailand's Future More Grim Than People Think?

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

It seems to me the thing that's got you worried the most is that evryone is not as worried as you are.

I do indeed think that a proper Thai government should focus more on building their defenses. Remember what happened to Thailand in WW2. They have this myth that they can never be dominated. Well, they have been before, and without any resistance.

Why should they build their defenses? They could not possibly defend the country against a superpower (not that China is one), but it's got a lot of forces. There is no defense save for the prevetative tactic of staging western bases here, which I doubt very much if that would fly.

This region hass changed a lot in the last 30 years. If you hadn't noticed there are highways leading to Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Burma and India (soon), not jungles. Commerce is creating shared interests. Is everyone benefittingequally? No, but it's a good start.

Consider what a country can do when they have no or minamal military. Singapore is a good example, they have world class water system, sewer system, flood controll and transportation system. That wouldn't be possible with huge military expenditures. LOS would do well to copy them.

Personally I don't put much stock in the sky is falling posts. I'll just go on enjoying life and let the rest of you worry about it.

[Thai at Heart]

I do indeed think that a proper Thai government should focus more on building their defenses. Remember what happened to Thailand in WW2.

IMO the days of WW2 style invading for natural resources is over. As LRB pointed out, the new weapon in world domination is business acumen, and as TaH pointed out, the Chinese still have a long way to go in that regard (as does LOS).

The near breakout of war between India and Pakistan several years ago was essentially prevented by threats from the US and others to withdraw trade.

LOS is to their way (the powers that be)of thinking doing very well thank you very much. They are protecting the hel_l out of their domestic industries with tarrifs and duties and now have a potential windfall coming from agricultural exports. This demand for food suits the powers that be very well, because the money can keep the poor in the fields while they polish their mercs. This country needs rural development and fast, or the countryside is going to die in the next 30 years. But then CP (only Thai multinational)can always create super farms with farm employees. They will dabble with opening up some small sectors of the economy as they see fit, and then recant when it looks as thought the evil foreigner is getting too big.

Thailand doesn't do competition or free markets. They don't see the point and as long as this stays the situation, Thailand will bumble along at 3 to 4% growth, the rich will get rich and the poor stay where they are meant to. Not catastrophic, but not as good as it could be.

[thaihome]

Need to note the CP is not the only Thai multinational. Just to think of a few:

PTT (including its subsidiary PTTEP), Minor Foods, Central Group.

I just don’t understand why you people continue to focus on agriculture as Thailand's future. In 2007 agriculture contributed 375 billion baht to Thailand GDP, manufacturing 1,680.1 billion with construction another 100 billion.

Does that sound like a agriculture based economy?

TH

[Thai at Heart]

Need to note the CP is not the only Thai multinational. Just to think of a few:

PTT (including its subsidiary PTTEP), Minor Foods, Central Group.

I just don’t understand why you people continue to focus on agriculture as Thailand's future. In 2007 agriculture contributed 375 billion baht to Thailand GDP, manufacturing 1,680.1 billion with construction another 100 billion.

Does that sound like a agriculture based economy?

TH

But it probably supports employs 40% (maybe more) of the countries people. It may not be worth much, but if you are born in the village with no education, making sure that agriculture survives is pretty important. Or did I miss something and Thailand has a social system that can support all these people?

Minor Group - Started by Bill Heineike - Patently not Thai in reality. operating Marriot hotels (Not Thai) and importing foreign brands (ummm, definitely not Thai), and selling Burger King, that staple of Thai cuisine.

PTT - Used to be govt owned until about 10 minutes ago

Central Group - Part of CP

[LaoPo]

Hmmm, China has developed it's own brands. And those monolithic brands with world wide reach would be? Haier? Anyone ever bought one of those outside China? Lenovo? That would be IBM right. Where are the international Chinese car firms? electronics firms? software firms? Where is the Chinese Samsung, Sony, Ford, Toyota, Starbucks, Canon, Apple?

Lack of international branding is one of the massive weaknesses in the Chinese business model. Ask any Chinese if he would like to own a Chery or a Honda (with all the Japanese connotations) and the answer 99% percent of the time is Honda. Not even their own consumers trust their own brands. Nike or Lining? Nokia or whatever chinese phone? Very few Chinese aspire to owning domestic brands so why would a foreigner? Chinese domestic brands have barely convinced their own populous let alone the export market.

The story about the losses that the average Chang has lost on the stockmarket in the last 6 months has been hidden behind the olympics. Inflation is taking off, and the slowdown in the US is feeding into lower growth in export industries in the mainland. This may not be a very soft landing in China, but being communist, people will probably grin and bear it. They have a solid base (but massively biased to export and assembly for export) and it is good that growth may not persist at 10%. However, they need this growth because it was absorbing hundreds of thousands of school leavers each year, and unemployment on the mainland in the prosperous cities was very low, which industries will absorb all these youngsters in China if growth is only 5%?

Wealth distribution is absolutely shocking, and domestic companies still do not allocate capital efficiently. Their fuel consumption per $ of GDP is enormous in comparison with the developed world. China has massive socio-economic issues to solve, and if this huge populous sees growth dropping, unemployment rising, inflation rising and less money in it's pocket could it lead to insurrection?

Your story doesn't make sense at all and is like comparing a child with an adult with lots of experience. Your view is also belittling and you will be sorry in 1, 2 or 3 decades and regret you said the above.

You, together with many others, make one BIG mistake: you underestimate the spirit and flexibility of China and it's 1.3 Billion inhabitants...

How can you compare old established Western, Japanese and Korean companies with a long history with brand new companies from developing countries ?

Haier* in it's present form was established in 1984 whilst companies you named like, Samsung/1938 - Sony/1945 - Ford/1903 - Toyota/1937 - Starbucks 1971 - Canon/1930-37 - Apple/1976 have miles and miles of advantage versus companies from emerging countries, whether China or Thailand, Indonesia etc.

Maybe you can remember that everyone in the West was laughing at Japanese car/electronics/camera manufacturers some 4 decades ago ? Now, Giants like GM, Ford and Chrysler are in need of acute oxygen in order to survive versus the Japanese whilst other old established car and camera (and other industries) companies in the West have vanished.

Maybe you forgot that China was surrounded by a high gate for some 100 years and the present economy is hardly 20-25 years old.

At first the -private entrepreneurs and spirits - created production facilities/factories and could hardly supply the enormous local demand.

I have met quite a few very rich Chinese manufacturers but they didn't get rich from exports; they got rich by the ever increasing (since 20 years) demand from within China and local branding and promotion was hardly in place.

Exports came only at first, created by a.o. Hong Kong (Chinese) companies who followed the demand from the West.

How can you compare a China company like Li Ning sportswear (you mentioned it !) with Giants like Nike and Adidas ? Li Ning was founded in 1990, some 17 years ago whilst Nike is from 1962-72 and Adidas has it's history since 1924.

BUT, isn't it amazing that Li Ning has a Chinese market share of more than 10.5% versus their giant competitors Nike/16.7% and Adidas/15.6% in a (2006) USD 3,84 Billion market ?

It's a matter of time that companies like Li Ning (also in other industries) will overtake their western competitors...!

Also you mentioned Nokia; of course many Chinese want a Nokia (made in China) but the majority still has a Chinese brand mobile. Don't forget China has more than 600 Million mobile phone subscribers since the end of June 2008.

It's a matter of time before the world will see other than Western brand names, made in China/India/Indonesia etc. as well.

* Haier is a global company although not many westerners realize that (yet)...

http://www.haier.com/index.htm

Haier business case studies are included in the text books of Harvard University, University of Southern California, Lausanne Management College, European Business College and Kobe University.

LaoPo

Edited August 15, 2008 by LaoPo

[LaoPo]

...you will be surprised that many Thai owners like those who own the Nai Lert Park Hotel at Wireless Road simply detest having Chinese, Indian or Middle-eastern guests. even if their room occupancy is low or their f/b revenue is low..all they want is only Rich Europeans....what a joke!

That's a fairy tale and complete nonsense.

The Swissotel Hotels & Resorts company own/operate several hotels in China, Japan, Singapore and belong to an international chain, worldwide.

They can't afford to refuse guests from the above mentioned countries. If that would be known it would ruin their business.

Apart from that, sales are done by many online sales bureaus, selling rooms worldwide, also for Swissotel Nai Lert Park.

It's not the way Hotel chains are operated these days (refusing clients because of their origin)

LaoPo

It's not a fairy tale and there is alot of reality in it . You have not been on the receiving end to tell whether this nonsense is practiced here or not.

The criteria that is being used to welcome or kick out those people who are obliviously afford to bay the rent for a short or long stay is all based on a (racist) attitude.

I can provide you with a long list of hotels or serviced apartments that reject having those nationalities in their residence or compound. Once I asked those (owners) to write a big board-sign on their compounds which says:

(NO ........ race-nationality allowed on here)

to spear those people who goes there to inquire there from insult and humiliation.

Funny enough;last year I was looking for an apartment for my friend who is an Iraqi woman-doctor working in BKK hospital, I found a good one that suits her needs with the usual rents that is being charged in San F. apartments in Suk 24. The owner was so happy and agreed to rent and he asked to sign the contract directly with us, but when my friend came ,he found out she is Arabic- he refused to let for her ,saying those (nationality with others mentioned above) are not allowed.

This year, I can notice a big difference in this attitude wherever I go, There is a cunning (twist) in dealing with this issue : they simply started charging those people more

It's a common practice now in hotels or hospitals who deal with (Arabs) usually.

Remarks:

*Rates are not applicable for Middle East, Indian & Japanese

Try to look for this remark whenever you book a hotel or ask them if you could book for your friend who is from those nationalities; and you'll see it is NOT a fairy tale.

Proof

"Remarks:

*Rates are not applicable for Domestic & Asian Market, Middle East, Indian & Japanese"

Are you referring to the above ? One can read that in different ways but it's CERTAINLY not meant in a discriminating kind of way; but if you believe so why don't you write a message to the Swissotel chain with a complaint and provide them with a link to this discussion ? (not the Phuket Graceland of course).

Sorry, but I don't buy your story; maybe it's -in a way- true for apartments, but nowadays hotel rooms are booked through worldwide agents and/or directly. I was just booking hotelrooms myself and the first thing you encounter on every website is the question:

WHAT DATES are you booking ?

If the dates are free you simply book AND PAY by creditcard and NOBODY will refuse you.

Nobody is looking for your name as there are also many USA/EUROPE/OCEANIA people with Chinese, Arab, Japanese names.

But there is always a possibility one is refused, walking into a hotel because of his/her race.

LaoPo

[uptou]

This is a money question right???Most of the big japanese car manufacturers have thailand as their 1st or 2nd worldwide manufacturing plants for thailand,asia,& export to the whole of Europe,& i believe they are expanding.Not exactly a complete picture of thailand by stating this,but i would hazard a guess that companies like toyota would have done a fair bit of research on production in thailand.

Also most of the jewelry sold in the usa is made in Thailand,which is also the gem buying,cutting center of the world.

Edited August 15, 2008 by uptou

[Andrew Hicks]

No problems for Thailand....very bright future....we will have all the mega-projects going on and Thailand will be a region hub for everything in South East Asia

And who generated the wealth that is spent on mega-project stimulation packages? The low wage poor workers of the country who will never participate in the wealth that is being enjoyed by the middle classes and the rich.

Thailand's economy depends on its cheap labour both in agriculture and the sweatshop factories. Even a worker in a modern car factory starts on only 8,000 baht a month.

Three policies are needed...

... a regional development plan to get industry to the people rather than drawing a flood of migant labour to Bangkok and the Eastern seaboard. Plans to help the rural poor always focus solely on agriculture. Agriculture needs to be modernised, but they need modern jobs in the small towns as well.

... going hi-tech. Thailand's industry is essentially low value/low tech and will slowly be priced out of the market. Improving education and productivity are essential if value is to be added and Thailand to be competitive.

... and finally, I can't think of the third point because it's late and I like Sang Som too much.

[JimmyTheMook]

Thailand doesn't do competition or free markets. They don't see the point and as long as this stays the situation, Thailand will bumble along at 3 to 4% growth, the rich will get rich and the poor stay where they are meant to. Not catastrophic, but not as good as it could be.

Well put and this is why the next generation of Asia's growing Tigers will leave Thailand a kitten.

[Soutpeel]

No problems for Thailand....very bright future....we will have all the mega-projects going on and Thailand will be a region hub for everything in South East Asia

And who generated the wealth that is spent on mega-project stimulation packages? The low wage poor workers of the country who will never participate in the wealth that is being enjoyed by the middle classes and the rich.

Thailand's economy depends on its cheap labour both in agriculture and the sweatshop factories. Even a worker in a modern car factory starts on only 8,000 baht a month.

Three policies are needed...

... a regional development plan to get industry to the people rather than drawing a flood of migant labour to Bangkok and the Eastern seaboard. Plans to help the rural poor always focus solely on agriculture. Agriculture needs to be modernised, but they need modern jobs in the small towns as well.

... going hi-tech. Thailand's industry is essentially low value/low tech and will slowly be priced out of the market. Improving education and productivity are essential if value is to be added and Thailand to be competitive.

... and finally, I can't think of the third point because it's late and I like Sang Som too much.

Trust you detected I was being sarcastic.. with my remarks

[Jingthing]

IMO the days of WW2 style invading for natural resources is over.

I guess George Bush didn't get that news before he invaded Iraq which was indeed about OIL.

There are other ways for China to take over Thailand, if that is to happen. China didn't invade Burma, but no power will touch Burma for fear of stepping on China's toes.

For example, what is to stop a crooked deal between China and a crooked core of Thailand's elite during a time of crisis for Thailand? Thailand isn't that tiny. It is big enough to have a strong enough army to at least give it more negotiating power if there is a future power play by China. Predators go after EASY targets. Like Tibet. Chinese power is not benign or generous. The word out of Africa is that they have given the countries they deal with there very bad deals.

I admit I am biased. I detest the Chinese government and totalitarian monoliths of all flavors. They are not to be trusted as far as you can throw them. At the same time, I like Chinese people and culture. I just wish they would REVOLT already.

Edited August 15, 2008 by Jingthing

[PhilHarries]

I admit I am biased. I detest the Chinese government and totalitarian monoliths of all flavors. They are not to be trusted as far as you can throw them. At the same time, I like Chinese people and culture. I just wish they would REVOLT already.

Maybe they've learnt from their past and from their Russian mentors. Open revolt only gets people killed, given time the system will self destruct and in the meantime learn to live with it, the system, and learn the ways to circumvent it.

But the collapse of the Chinese communist government brings to mind a host of interesting possibilities. The collapse of the old Soviet Union brought about a fragmentation into ever smaller states which continues today. The same happened with the former Yugoslavia unfortunately with much violence and bloodshed as old scores were settled. All that held those monoliths together was a dictatorial totalitarian form of government, exactly the same system that currently binds all the dispatate states together under the flag of China. The only difference being the transformation from a strictly communist to a hybrid communist/capitalist system and in that respect the Chinese government may be putting off the inevitable for a few decades at least.

Sorry

Thailand is doing, and will continue to do, as well as the ruling elite want it to do. They have no aspirations of Thailand taking centrestage as neither do, IMO, the people. In general the people are happy in their own lives and probably, in general, their biggest aspiration is winning the lottery.

[MaximumSecurity]

Have you been to China lately? Inflation is the talk on everyone's lips. Workers want pay raises.

Want to see want China is up to? This is written by the same intel analysts that, back in 2002, were screaming that Iraq had no WMD, that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11 and that the Americans would not be welcomed as saviors by the Iraqi people.

http://enoughalready.org/China's50-YearPlan.htm

http://enoughalready.org/boycott_china.htm

[Jingthing]

Have you been to China lately? Inflation is the talk on everyone's lips. Workers want pay raises.

Want to see want China is up to? This is written by the same intel analysts that, back in 2002, were screaming that Iraq had no WMD, that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11 and that the Americans would not be welcomed as saviors by the Iraqi people.

http://enoughalready.org/China's50-YearPlan.htm

http://enoughalready.org/boycott_china.htm

Well, that is all very alarmist. I suspect that if the long term strategy of China is as insidious as the website suggests, there really isn't much we can do it about it. 1.3 billion people, after all.

Interestingly, that website is the FIRST TIME I have ever read anywhere (except here) any concern that over time China will devour all of its neighbors in Asia, which would of course include Thailand. I came to this concern from my own thought process so it is interesting to hear of other people thinking that way. I still wonder why this concern never seems to be mentioned in Thai media, from what I can tell anyway.

Edited August 16, 2008 by Jingthing

[Naam]

Want to see want China is up to? This is written by the same intel analysts...

...who need rubber sheets to protect their mattresses against the results of their wet dreams

[Naam]

BTW, the Chinese have a funny way of telling the world they don't want to go to war, or least INTIMIDATE the world. Why else build a huge army and put on a Olympics show that would have made Hitler blush.

the Olympics in Beijing are meant to intimidate the world? if China's military force is huge what pray tell is the expression for the military force of the Greatest Nation on Earth™?

military spending - China 6.99 trillion / USA 13.84 trillion - extrapolated = USA spends 8.6 times more $$$ per capita.

public debt - China 18.4% of GDP / USA 60.8% of GDP

[lannarebirth]

Have you been to China lately? Inflation is the talk on everyone's lips. Workers want pay raises.

Want to see want China is up to? This is written by the same intel analysts that, back in 2002, were screaming that Iraq had no WMD, that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11 and that the Americans would not be welcomed as saviors by the Iraqi people.

http://enoughalready.org/China's50-YearPlan.htm

http://enoughalready.org/boycott_china.htm

Well, that is all very alarmist. I suspect that if the long term strategy of China is as insidious as the website suggests, there really isn't much we can do it about it. 1.3 billion people, after all.

Interestingly, that website is the FIRST TIME I have ever read anywhere (except here) any concern that over time China will devour all of its neighbors in Asia, which would of course include Thailand. I came to this concern from my own thought process so it is interesting to hear of other people thinking that way. I still wonder why this concern never seems to be mentioned in Thai media, from what I can tell anyway.

Sure China is going to devour Thailand. After all they're both just artificial constructs that didn't exist in the past and won't exist in the future. Ever study any anthropology or migration of peoples? It's ususlly a long term process, by war or famine or economics. Look at migrations in Europe, In North America. The society changes, the people change. It won't be thailand, and it won't be China.

Where we differ is, I don't think it will come about by force or anytime soon. I think it will bea long term process, just as it has been so far.

Edited August 16, 2008 by lannarebirth

[Jingthing]

Where we differ is, I don't think it will come about by force or anytime soon. I think it will bea long term process, just as it has been so far.

I wouldn't be foolish enough to put a date on it. Sometimes unexpected events can speed things up more than you might expect.

Ever study any anthropology or migration of peoples? It's ususlly a long term process, by war or famine or economics. Look at migrations in Europe, In North America. The society changes, the people change. It won't be thailand, and it won't be China.

Yes, I have.

Edited August 16, 2008 by Jingthing