Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[kerr17]

as i'm currently getting paid in £ sterling and having the possibilities to switch it to € would you do it?

Right now the £ has recovered quiet a lot with the € from 1.15 to 1.21 and may be the best moment to switch it, as the Euro looks more stable in the long run i guess.

What would you do it if you were in my position?

Cheers

[VegasVic]

I just read the RBS forecast for exchange rates and historically they have been pretty close over the years - their latest report makes grim reading however. They see GBP/USD remaining in a range of between 1.48 and 1.53 for the next two years!

I don't know how useful this is but at least it's perhaps another indicator as to the future.

That $1.48-$1.53 range will not hold near term! I agree with BB that the Pound will see the mid $1.30's vs. the Dollar by the end of Jan.-mid Feb. time frame as the BOE will need to make some more substantial rate cuts. The EU central banks will also be making more cuts, but most EU member nations are in far better shape than the U.K. so the Pound will slide further than the Euro going forward from here.

[bingobongo]

I just read the RBS forecast for exchange rates and historically they have been pretty close over the years - their latest report makes grim reading however. They see GBP/USD remaining in a range of between 1.48 and 1.53 for the next two years!

I don't know how useful this is but at least it's perhaps another indicator as to the future.

That $1.48-$1.53 range will not hold near term! I agree with BB that the Pound will see the mid $1.30's vs. the Dollar by the end of Jan.-mid Feb. time frame as the BOE will need to make some more substantial rate cuts. The EU central banks will also be making more cuts, but most EU member nations are in far better shape than the U.K. so the Pound will slide further than the Euro going forward from here.

great minds think a like Vegas, good to see someone else bring some sanity to this forum

[pauls2979]

i am just about following these posts, very good thread by the way , can some one tell me where the pound will be to the baht , come jan feb?

[VegasVic]

I just read the RBS forecast for exchange rates and historically they have been pretty close over the years - their latest report makes grim reading however. They see GBP/USD remaining in a range of between 1.48 and 1.53 for the next two years!

I don't know how useful this is but at least it's perhaps another indicator as to the future.

That $1.48-$1.53 range will not hold near term! I agree with BB that the Pound will see the mid $1.30's vs. the Dollar by the end of Jan.-mid Feb. time frame as the BOE will need to make some more substantial rate cuts. The EU central banks will also be making more cuts, but most EU member nations are in far better shape than the U.K. so the Pound will slide further than the Euro going forward from here.

great minds think a like Vegas, good to see someone else bring some sanity to this forum

Hello BB, its good to see that you are still here keeping the folks honest! I've been making some nice dough trading some of the gold miners over the past 6 weeks, I'm in cash now but I expect to see the Dollar make a surge here soon and the DOW drop back 1000 pts and then I will reenter the fray once again. Have a good Christmass and New Years if our paths don't cross before then!

[ArranP]

Hi All.

You have got to hand it to Bingo.After much ridicule on his forcast for the SET, in the end he was 100% right, I hope he is wrong about Sterling, but I wont hold my breath.

phupaman

thank you, i only tell it like it is

the next stop for sterling is around US$1.36 per 1 British pound (it is $1.53 as of this post), if that does not hold (which it will not given the UK central bank will keep slashing rates) parity to the US $ will happen US$1 = 1 British pound that is not a misrpint, all hel_l is going to break loose as inflation in the UK will be devastating.......get ready, its coming

additionally, you have a death cross on the $/pound chart (50 DMA moving below 200DMA), needless to say the crushing of British pound will affect LOS tourism

The dollar strength seen over the last 2 months, do you see most of this attributed to BOE interest rate cuts? do you think the de-leveraging has played a major role in this ?

Moving forward at some point out-flows from the dollar and yen will increase as risk apetite improves.

Edited November 29, 2008 by ArranP

[ArranP]

as i'm currently getting paid in £ sterling and having the possibilities to switch it to € would you do it?

Right now the £ has recovered quiet a lot with the € from 1.15 to 1.21 and may be the best moment to switch it, as the Euro looks more stable in the long run i guess.

What would you do it if you were in my position?

Cheers

EUR has come a long way in one direction, it is forecast to weaken against the pound, I've observed the following reasons given for this... Euro is a single currency but not a single country, ECB has cut interest rates the least so far.

Edited November 29, 2008 by ArranP

[ArranP]

I just read the RBS forecast for exchange rates and historically they have been pretty close over the years - their latest report makes grim reading however. They see GBP/USD remaining in a range of between 1.48 and 1.53 for the next two years!

I don't know how useful this is but at least it's perhaps another indicator as to the future.

Barclays Capital have forecast above 1.40 near term, above 1.60 from 3 months onwards, 1.89 by 2009 end.

I remember another guy on Bloomberg quoted parity :-) Many different forecasts! But generally, after watching the many different forecasts, they seem to predict pound strength due to usd weakness.

I'm not sure how forecasts from Barclays Capital have faired in the past.

Edited November 29, 2008 by ArranP

[MJP]

It's going to be a rough first half of the year for those holding Sterling.

Trouble is, once USD dives, oil and commods shoot up, so we're no better off really.

Just spend it and once it's gone get a load of credit cards. It's what the UK's been doing for years!

[chiang mai]

Hi All.

You have got to hand it to Bingo.After much ridicule on his forcast for the SET, in the end he was 100% right, I hope he is wrong about Sterling, but I wont hold my breath.

phupaman

thank you, i only tell it like it is

the next stop for sterling is around US$1.36 per 1 British pound (it is $1.53 as of this post), if that does not hold (which it will not given the UK central bank will keep slashing rates) parity to the US $ will happen US$1 = 1 British pound that is not a misrpint, all hel_l is going to break loose as inflation in the UK will be devastating.......get ready, its coming

additionally, you have a death cross on the $/pound chart (50 DMA moving below 200DMA), needless to say the crushing of British pound will affect LOS tourism

The dollar strength seen over the last 2 months, do you see most of this attributed to BOE interest rate cuts? do you think the de-leveraging has played a major role in this ?

Moving forward at some point out-flows from the dollar and yen will increase as risk apetite improves.

I personally do not see that Dollar "strength" has anything to do with the BOE rate cuts whereas I do see that funds repatriation has lots to do with it. I also see that cycle of repatriation nearing a close hence I see that the USD upwards trend is nearly finished. I also do not agree that GBP will reach parity with USD, despite what the tea leaves may say. I think BB is absolutely correct in that inflation in the UK is going to be pretty nasty at some stage but not before a series run of deflation. Inevitably the partial cure for inflation will involve increased interest rates and that factor alone is likely to make the Pound attractive and help it keep some value. As for when all of this will happen, haven't got a clue! And before folks start to berate me for my views on Sterling I would remind everyone of the full range of views that have been offered on GBP exchange rates from a whole host of banks/finance houses/experts/amateurs that encompass the all possibilities - mine is just one view, my personal view.

[SomNamNah]

lazy sunday morning, time to get the etchasketch out.

whoops, only a few more baht to sqeeze out before it tests the resistance...

gold and the Dow Jones - USD all about to hit resistance...

another shitty week or two ahead in my opinion.

has gold 'broken out' ? .. hmm.. I aint gonna buy the top... just in case.

+$0.16 upside target?

$1 = 37

₤1 = 56

next resistance if bounce is to test resistance?

DJI approaching resistance test

GOLD Breakout?? OR continue down with dji/sp

bored bored bored waiting for financial meltdown.

Edited November 30, 2008 by SomNamNah

[bingobongo]

tick tick tick......this wont help LOS ecxept to keep out all the sexpats and mongers

Fears That a Weakened British Pound May Grow Weaker

"Parity is not impossible," said Theo Casey, an investment strategist at The Fleet Street Letter, a financial newsletter that has been forecasting the collapse of the pound since August. "We are this tiny island dependent on finance and housing. We are crashing and it will continue."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/29/business...ml?ref=business

Edited November 30, 2008 by bingobongo

[chiang mai]

tick tick tick......this wont help LOS ecxept to keep out all the sexpats and mongers

Fears That a Weakened British Pound May Grow Weaker

"Parity is not impossible," said Theo Casey, an investment strategist at The Fleet Street Letter, a financial newsletter that has been forecasting the collapse of the pound since August. "We are this tiny island dependent on finance and housing. We are crashing and it will continue."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/29/business...ml?ref=business

You know, I'm happy to entertain and think about sensible ideas and on occasion maybe even ideas that seem odd, different and perhaps even absurd - it therefore should go without saying that I can and have thought about the idea of GBP/USD parity. Trouble is when I do that I really have no idea whether it will or will not achieve parity or whether next month it will head back to GBP = $2.10 - I have no basis on which to calculate the end number. Unfortunately, there are those in the "supposed to know" category who do try and come up with answers but they are all radically different answers. Certainly your chappie in Fleet Street doesn't have a clue but since he puts out a newsletter he has to say something interesting but I guess his track record of getting it right isn't too strong otherwise he would have offices further up the road in The City and people might have heard of him before! No, sorry, we're not going to see parity or even close to it, we're currently in the ballpark where we're going to stay for quite some time and sure, we may well dip down to 1.40 and surge to 1.60 but basically, this is it. Any future moves of weakness will be matched by a weakening Dollar and they will largely offset each other, that's what I think.

[Naam]

quote name='bingobongo' date='2008-11-30 19:01:52' post='2370020'

tick tick tick... this wont help LOS ecxept to keep out all the sexpats and mongers

looking forward for that happening

[think_too_mut]

tick tick tick......this wont help LOS ecxept to keep out all the sexpats and mongers

They would be the last to disappear. Even unbreakable Keith Richard would be out before sexpats leave or stop coming to Thailand. It may just be more refined - nobody else other than sex tourists come here.

3 Toyota car models from now and most of the Pattaya oldies woould be 2m under the ground and their surviving former bar girls would be commanding the real estate prices.

What really matters, folks like toyota, nissan and others who see little from the airports and sex but much more for old the age production lines and sea ports, they would hang around.

[Marvo]

They would be the last to disappear. Even unbreakable Keith Richard would be out before sexpats leave or stop coming to Thailand. It may just be more refined - nobody else other than sex tourists come here.

3 Toyota car models from now and most of the Pattaya oldies woould be 2m under the ground and their surviving former bar girls would be commanding the real estate prices.

What really matters, folks like toyota, nissan and others who see little from the airports and sex but much more for old the age production lines and sea ports, they would hang around.

^ Have I just inadvertently inhaled something mind altering?

[chiang mai]

They would be the last to disappear. Even unbreakable Keith Richard would be out before sexpats leave or stop coming to Thailand. It may just be more refined - nobody else other than sex tourists come here.

3 Toyota car models from now and most of the Pattaya oldies woould be 2m under the ground and their surviving former bar girls would be commanding the real estate prices.

What really matters, folks like toyota, nissan and others who see little from the airports and sex but much more for old the age production lines and sea ports, they would hang around.

^ Have I just inadvertently inhaled something mind altering?

It makes better sense if you try reading it backwards!

[MJP]

Not looking good this morning.

53.85. It's down, even though Thailand is closed for business.

[spiderman2]

Nuliebour fascists have been talking to EU fascists about taking us into the Euro -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7757830.stm

[JimsKnight]

It's now at 54.01.

Maybe time to start shorting the £ for those who are out in Thailand right now.

If it reaches parity then maybe as low as 40 baht to the £ ???

[lannarebirth]

Nuliebour fascists have been talking to EU fascists about taking us into the Euro -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7757830.stm

Out of the frying pan and into the fire, as they say. Looks like toast to me.

[Bizz]

Is the pound going into freefall yes soon it will be Euro

What is the world coming to.

Downing Street denies mulling euro

Monday, 1 December 2008 11:38

Britain has denied it is planning to adopt the euro in the near future, after the European Commission president said London was considering joining the euro zone.

Citing private conversations with British politicians, Jose Manuel Barroso said yesterday that Britain was thinking of ditching sterling as a consequence of the global financial turmoil.

However, Prime Minister Gordon Brown's Downing Street office insisted: 'Our position on the euro hasn't changed.'

Once a highly-charged issue in Britain, the euro debate has fallen off the agenda in recent years and now rarely surfaces.

Although former prime minister Tony Blair was warm to the idea and pledged to hold a referendum on the issue, Brown is seen as being firmly against joining and there is little sign that public opposition has waned.

But Barroso said that British entry to the euro was 'closer than ever before' amid the global slowdown, which has seen sterling slump to its lowest level against the euro since the European single currency was created in 1999.

He said: 'I don't mean this will happen tomorrow, I know that the majority (of Britons) are still opposed, but there is a period of consideration underway and the people which matter in Britain are currently thinking about it.'

Before the euro was launched the British government set five economic tests to decide whether to recommend joining the currency.

These were economic convergence between Britain and the euro zone; the need for euro zone to be flexible to economic change; as well as its impact on jobs, foreign investment and the financial services industry.

www.rte.ie/business/2008/1201/euro.html

Edited December 1, 2008 by Bizz

[bingobongo]

$ to sterling rate is now $1.4876 (was $1.53 on Friday), if $1.36 does not hold, parity is coming $1 = 1 Sterling, get ready chiangmai bruce, great pain is coming to the island of bangers and mash

[MJP]

$ to sterling rate is now $1.4876 (was $1.53 on Friday), if $1.36 does not hold, parity is coming $1 = 1 Sterling, get ready chiangmai bruce, great pain is coming to the island of bangers and mash

There's a TV ad in the UK, it's catch phrase is "Mum's gone to Iceland".

[pkrv]

Then this is what this thread is about GBPTHB= has improved has it not?

[chiang mai]

$ to sterling rate is now $1.4876 (was $1.53 on Friday), if $1.36 does not hold, parity is coming $1 = 1 Sterling, get ready chiangmai bruce, great pain is coming to the island of bangers and mash

It seems to me that GBP/USD has given up the small gains it made over the past week and has now returned to its previous levels, nothing too much there to get excited about and still absolutely nothing to imply parity.

Edited December 2, 2008 by chiang mai

[MJP]

Lot of bad news today.

Job losses. Aston Martin - 600, Halford's - 250, Credit Suisse - 650, Honda - will lay off 1200, there was another, but can't remember who, 400.

Housing data - £438m last month, lending down 70%

But by far the worst was the Purchasing Manager's Index, 34, lowest on record, 50 indicates growth.

Could be the BoE go for that 1% cut to 2%.

Overnight recovery looks to be happening.

Forex mate reckons it's the bottom for the Pound now. I really don't know any more.

[SomNamNah]

Hitting support zone for the USD/GBP

gonna take something big to make the pound crash through surely?

DJI SKATING ON THIN ICE...... crack or breakout?

crack imo.

[chiang mai]

Yes I agree, we've already had a series of bad numbers yesterday, in particular on manufacturing (didn't realize we had any manufacturing left but OK) and it was these that seem to have caused yesterdays fall and built an expectation of up to a 1.0% rate cut on Thursday. So, all things being equal, unless we see a rate cut in excess of 1.0%, and provided there is no more seriously bad news out of the UK this week, GBP/USD should continue to hover around its current support area - my guess is that we're due bad news out of the US, DJI maybe, that should help sustain the current GBP position or offset any further falls.

[lannarebirth]

Yes I agree, we've already had a series of bad numbers yesterday, in particular on manufacturing (didn't realize we had any manufacturing left but OK) and it was these that seem to have caused yesterdays fall and built an expectation of up to a 1.0% rate cut on Thursday. So, all things being equal, unless we see a rate cut in excess of 1.0%, and provided there is no more seriously bad news out of the UK this week, GBP/USD should continue to hover around its current support area - my guess is that we're due bad news out of the US, DJI maybe, that should help sustain the current GBP position or offset any further falls.

Thee's no difference between the DJI and the GBP. Both are the other side of the USD trade. Most eveything is. $1.36 is the target sugested by it's LT rising wedge. It will get there. Talk of parity and below is premature as there is no price action yet to suggest that outcome (only the speed and force ofthe current move). A break of 1.36 makes 1.00-1.05 the next target. Next 80 week cycle methinks.