Mossfinn Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 I know This thread is running but purely selfishly are there any long haul direct carriers (to Thailand) in trouble? Link Good Luck Moss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 "We have already seen 30 or so airlines go bust this year and it would be fair to expect a similar number of casualties worldwide over the next three to four months." So the total will be 60 busted airlines this year, many (smaller ones) in the US as far as I know... But long haul carriers in trouble....? I don't know but it could happen any moment..by surprise. LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClaytonSeymour Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 United are one of the most likely candidates. Of course, US bankruptcy laws are different & do allow them to continue operating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goshawk Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 UK bookmakers Paddy Power currently have.. Czech Airlines 33 - 1 Vueling Airlines 28 - 1 United Airlines 20 - 1 Scandinavian airlines 20 - 1 as next airline to go bust.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClaytonSeymour Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 (edited) UK bookmakers Paddy Power currently have..Czech Airlines 33 - 1 Vueling Airlines 28 - 1 United Airlines 20 - 1 Scandinavian airlines 20 - 1 as next airline to go bust.. This could possibly be a new form of insurance - if you're worried that the airline you're going to fly with will go bust, place a bet to cover your losses! Of course the problem is that if another airline goes under first - you lose twice. Edited September 14, 2008 by ClaytonSeymour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMA_FARANG Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 I know This thread is running but purely selfishly are there any long haul direct carriers (to Thailand) in trouble?Link Good Luck Moss I don't think they have any flights to Thailand,but I'm not sure. As for going bankrupt, its already been in the business news. Alitalia, the Italian airline, is very close to going bankrupt. So my guess for the next airline to go bankrupt is.....Alitalia. In fact, it's a pretty good certainty. (They may be able to find a buyer/partner to stop out-and-out bankruptcy, but Alitalia is effectively dead now as a viable independent airline.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mossfinn Posted September 14, 2008 Author Share Posted September 14, 2008 So the total will be 60 busted airlines this year, many (smaller ones) in the US as far as I know...But long haul carriers in trouble....? I don't know but it could happen any moment..by surprise. Yes, 60 does seem a lot, the cash rich guys like BA and Ryan Air should be OK, so the long haulers to Thailand, like Thai and EVA are my main concern, I haven't booked BA for some time, but going EVA in December, so hope they are OK. Good Luck Moss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geriatrickid Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 Rather than state the obvious, I'll try to be helpful for a change How to protect yourself? Consider different routings and airlines that don't necessarily service the Thailand routes direct. Longer for sure, but somewhat safer maybe. From the USA, consider Japanese air carriers. If on the east coast consider using Air Canada or WestJet as feeders to ANA or even EVA. EVA from the USA or Canada (YVR) should be ok. Yes it's gushing blood, but it benefits from being part of the Evergreen cargo group and they still have lots of money. Wishful thinking on my part because I have 4 flights booked between now and the end of the year. If she fails, I'm screwed. In the EU, BA has had a crappy year, but it's still solid. Lufthansa too. Whatever their faults, they still maintain their aircraft. The middle eastern gulf zone carriers have lost money like everyone else but they are on better footing because they still get access to cheaper fuel when they transit their gulf hubs and have some of the industry's better strategic planners and managers. And of course, there is the expensive, but always reliable jewel of the skies, Singapore Airlines. Slightly tattered from the industry storms, but she's in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 thai airways would be my #1 wager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe552 Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 Willie Walsh (of BA) said 30 airlines worldwide - I suspect many of us have never heard of many of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 So the total will be 60 busted airlines this year, many (smaller ones) in the US as far as I know...But long haul carriers in trouble....? I don't know but it could happen any moment..by surprise. Yes, 60 does seem a lot, the cash rich guys like BA and Ryan Air should be OK, so the long haulers to Thailand, like Thai and EVA are my main concern, I haven't booked BA for some time, but going EVA in December, so hope they are OK. Good Luck Moss Because of their geography I think EVA will be OK. The majority of their flights are long haul anyway Taiwan/Taipeh to >>>>>>>>>>>>you name it. LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 UAL should be ok too - Asia flights are their bread/butter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geriatrickid Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 UAL should be ok too - Asia flights are their bread/butter. It might very well go into further reorganization resulting in short term chaos. I too doubt UA will fail. It is an integral part of the US strategic air lift program. The crews and equipment have to be kept active because the US government needs the airlines to be there in the event of a national emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lomatopo Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 In the U.S.A. this year Frontier, ATA, Hawaiian have declared Chapter 11. Continental has been in Ch. 11 twice in its recent history. I'd say US Air is on the thinnest ice re: Ch. 7. UA has managed to cut/contain costs, although there is a lot of ill-will between labor (esp. Pilots) and management, and appears to be on relatively sound footing. UAL is closing their foreign flight attendant bases in BKK and SIN as of 30 October 2008, which is unfortunate, as they could not get enough FAs to take early-outs/job-share and their contract calls for foreign-based FAs to be let go before any AFA furloughs. UAL also downsized their local (Bangkok) ticketing operation from 50 to 15 and moved their offices (from Wireless Rd. to Silom) to smaller space as of 1 Sep 2008. Re: LH, they make more from their fuel hedging operation, catering and maintenance services than they do operating an airline. And SQ benefits from being able to cherry-pick high-yield routes. And cheap fuel for middle-eastern carriers is an amusing observation. Just because they have crude oil, of which the local variety yields a very, very low percentage of distillate (Jet A) when compared to Brent, doesn't mean their fuel costs are low. Locally, One-2-Go are out, and Nok is on life-support. Not sure which legacy/country carriers with flight ops. to Thailand are wobbly but think they'll be cutting capacity first due to the dearth of tourist traffic. BKK still serves as a less expensive hub for some traffic transiting SE Asia. And cargo ex-BKK likely is remaining strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Losangels Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 thai airways would be my #1 wager If and when the ministry of finance quits supporting them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaivisa Travel Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 So the total will be 60 busted airlines this year, many (smaller ones) in the US as far as I know...But long haul carriers in trouble....? I don't know but it could happen any moment..by surprise. Yes, 60 does seem a lot, the cash rich guys like BA and Ryan Air should be OK, so the long haulers to Thailand, like Thai and EVA are my main concern, I haven't booked BA for some time, but going EVA in December, so hope they are OK. Good Luck Moss Hi Moss, Eva are not in trouble, they were smart and already took steps to reduce some excess capacity and they are running a very cost efficient airline with modern aircraft and excellent in-flight services. It is interesting that in the UK it is now compulsory to pay about 4 Pounds sterling for airline failure insurance, but this does tell us something. We feel it is fairly common knowledge that Thai are in trouble because they basically have not got anything right, not aircraft leases/purchases. pre contracting of fuel, and now they have loaded such ludicrous fuel surcharges that they are pricing themselves out of the market ! No comment on where that will surely take them if they are run as a government department rather than a commercial venture. We really hope it does not come to this, but they are coming out of all the super longhaul nonstop markets as we know, and that is not a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjamat Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 I am thinking of using eva in november for direct flights, hope they are stable. Usually use thai but prices too high now and comments here about instability are disturbing. I doubt very much that arab linked airlines will fail, they have the cash to weather the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wileycoyote Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Air France/KLM should be OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mossfinn Posted September 15, 2008 Author Share Posted September 15, 2008 thai airways would be my #1 wager We feel it is fairly common knowledge that Thai are in trouble I didn't know this and it is a little sad. Hi Moss, Eva are not in trouble That is good to hear. Good Luck Moss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stgrhe Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 Since October last year I have noted that these airlines have gone bankrupt, there may be more: 1. Kitty Hawk Cargo, USA (cargo airline) 15 Oktober 2007 2. Max Jet, USA 24 December 2007 3. Bid Sky Airlines, USA 8 March 2008 4. Aloha Airlines, USA 20 March 2008 5. Silverjet, UK (business class airline) 30 March 2008 6. ATA Airlines, USA 2 April 2008 7. Skybus Airlines, USA 4 April 2008 8. Skyways Airlines, USA 5 April 2008 9. Oasis, Hong Kong 8 April 2008 10. Frontier Airlines, USA 11 April 2008 11. EOS Airlines, USA (business class airline) 26 April 2008 12. Nationwide, South Africa 30 April 2008 13. Air Midwest, USA 14 May 2008 14. Champion Airlines, USA 31 May 2008 15. Gemini Air Cargo (cargo Airline) 19 June 2008 16. Vintage Props and Jets, USA 21 July 2008 17. Futura, Spain 9 August 2008 18. Futura Gael, Ireland (daughter company to Futura Spain) 9 August 2008 19. Zoom, Canada 28 August 2008 20. Alitalia, Italy 29 August 2008 21. Excel Airways, UK 12 September 2008 22. XL Travel Group, UK (charter airline) 12 September 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midas Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 Why is Alitalia still flying ? Crappy airline with age old aircraft and I cannot see why everyone is scrambling to keep nothing more than a logo alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tw25rw Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 Why is Alitalia still flying ? Crappy airline with age old aircraftand I cannot see why everyone is scrambling to keep nothing more than a logo alive National pride.. Berlusconi gets brownie points for keeping them going. There's no reason they can't have a large national carrier, but they are probably better off letting the current one die and letting someone else carry the flag, like with Swiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bultaco44 Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 Scandinavian (SAS) are looking into a selloff to Lufthansa. The company won't be allowed to collapse, as the scandinavian countries, are majority shareholders. Again, it could be a warning to the employees, who have had their share of strikes recently. I do not know the size of debts, but know they wanted to sell off Spanair, before Madrid...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBWG Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 Hi In my book if you stick with the middle eastern airlines you won't go far wrong. Preferably the newer ones Etihad, Qatar, Emirates, OK I know Emirates has been around sometime but all the aircraft are owned and paid for. They tend to operate the newest most fuel efficient aircraft. They have easy access to fuel at the keenest prices. They are not saddled with powerful unions and tend not to have vast numbers of pensionable staff like the long established European/US operators. Most importantly they also have so much money they don't know what to do with it! TBWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mosha Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 Not counting mergers. 46 airlines have "suspended ops" so far this year. This could be worse than 2003 http://www.justplanes.com/AirlineHist.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 Not counting mergers. 46 airlines have "suspended ops" so far this year. This could be worse than 2003 http://www.justplanes.com/AirlineHist.html Interesting ! Can't believe there are still banks/financiers putting up money in the airline business... I wonder what happens/happened to all the planes....? Arizona desert ? LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted September 18, 2008 Share Posted September 18, 2008 Read today quite a few major airlines hedged oil prices would be higher - now they are below $100 barrel - they lost quite a bit of dosh. Guess they can't win??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midas Posted September 18, 2008 Share Posted September 18, 2008 Why is Alitalia still flying ? Crappy airline with age old aircraftand I cannot see why everyone is scrambling to keep nothing more than a logo alive National pride.. Berlusconi gets brownie points for keeping them going. There's no reason they can't have a large national carrier, but they are probably better off letting the current one die and letting someone else carry the flag, like with Swiss. No you miss my point. Why not start a new one...............? I know its not a good time but I dont see any value in the Alitalia name -its just sentimental bull**it ! Their service is crap, the fleet is old. This is not the time to be sentimental. You could have a brand new fleet as well as some young cabin crew as well employed on YOUR terms instead of these geriatrics who are only there because of labour laws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyc2006 Posted September 21, 2008 Share Posted September 21, 2008 I don't know of United Air is going bust (yet again, after emerging from the longest bankruptcy in US airline history) -- I hope not, since I have 2 half-used BKK/USA tickets with them, one first and one business, as well as boatloads of frequent flyer miles & upgrades with them. I was getting worried the last time their stock hit $3/share, and started looking into it. There's no way to know if they'll fail, but I'm pretty sure their stock price won't hold at its current price of >$13/share. Sure enough that I bought a bunch of put options for January. If the company fails before January, or even if their stock drops back down to its historical lows, I'll make more on the options than I lose in tickets. If their stock price holds, oh well, at least I have my tickets. That was my approach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wileycoyote Posted September 21, 2008 Share Posted September 21, 2008 Someone ,just passed me a rumour Continental ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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