Police Fire Tear Gas At Protesters In Front Of Parliament

[hammered]

One poor sod from PPP got caught up in the action on Oct 7, too. He wants government compensation of 100,000 baht.

Check out this MP's claim:

"He claimed he had blurred vision as a result of police use of tear gas. He said he was admitted to hospital from Oct 8-18 during which he underwent an eye operation. His medical bills came to about 120,000 baht."

PADding the bill, by any chance?

http://www.bangkokpost.com/221108_News/22Nov2008_news16.php

Maybe he should sue the police. There have been reprots that they didnt follow proper procedure so he probably has a case. Maybe his fine example should also serve as an indicator to all the other tear gassed that they should sue whoever oredered the little adventure.

[Insight]

indeed... Hmmm....

I answered 1 and 2 already but you were probably busy answering in red.

3. your answer is not an answer since it's very vague....and I still don't know who is paying for those huge costs............ 'Private donations and people paying for themselves.'...really ?

How much would you estimate the costs for transporting 100,000 people SJ (some 2,000 buses) ?

4. maybe a 1,000 Kms from Hat Yai>Bangkok and another 1,000 Kms Bangkok>Hat Yai in a (hot) bus is not such a long trip for you...?

Your comparison with yearly celebrations is not in place. The dates for yearly celebrations are known long in advance and people PLAN their trips well in advance but this "100,000" protesters organization is not if the PAD calls for it on a Friday....to be held on Sunday including a 24-hour bus trip.

And, how on earth could you possibly possess the knowledge that the over-whelming majority of actual and anecdotal evidence indicates that the vast majority are not (paid - LP) ???

So: you actually believe that someone from the PAD calls, on Friday, upon a target of 100,000 protesters in the South and all of them jump on the buses on Saturday.....pay for themselves,

feed themselves,

and have themselves transported to Bangkok just because the PAD ask them to do so....like going on a holiday trip ?

And, those 100,000 protesters have the money to do that ?

right....hmmmmmm.......

I'm very curious to learn about the exodus from the South to Bangkok...today.

That must be quite a parade....2,000 buses; I wonder if the gasoline stations along the road have enough staff AND petrol to fill them up.

I am a bit concerned if there's enough parking space in BKK for all them buses....

Don't forget to post the photos !

LaoPo

Always noted your pro-Thaksin, anti-PAD stance LaoPo, but man, does this post speak volumes about your ignorance.

South Thailand isn't just Hat Yai mate. Pick any province South of Bangkok and you'll find support for Thaksin very thin on the ground. You are aware there's other provinces between Bangkok and Hat Yai? Within Bangkok itself, if there are any Thaksin supporters they're not very vocal about it, unless of course, they've all been bussed in from the North East into a stadium for a phone call.

[h90]

Yes, 24 hours is a hel_l of a bus ride. I would die of motion sickness.

The Thais probably sleep through it , wake up at parliament house and ready to rumble.

2000 buses, thats right, how much for a return 24hour bus trip ? 500 baht one way ?

That works out to be 100 million baht for logistics, plus other costs. Does the PAD pick up the bill, if not they surely cant be expecting 100000 people. They would be lucky to get 5000 people.

If the government sniffs trouble they can always barricade a strategic section of the road 200klms before bkk.

Till yesterday I was in Ranong, where they just gear up, spoke with the leader of PAD there, a lady, owner of the gasoline station and some supporter, one owner of a resort....My guess many come with their own cars, packed full of people or local travel agencies give their minivan free of charge, and the share the fuel costs between the passenger.....

So minor costs.....We also had one free seat in our car and offered to take one person to Bangkok, but they told, there are already so many cars available that in Ranong is no shortage at the moment.

Interesting report. Where theres a will theres a way I suppose.

The people I know from Ranong, Chumphon and Nakhon Si Thammarat (non of them muslim), are absolute mad about the government.....Most of them wealthy enough to go on their own to Bangkok (and of course willing to give their friends a free ride).

[LaoPo]

Lao Po, just an aside, Thaksin is widely reviled in the South. All parts of the South, not just the Muslim deep south. Not all 14 provinces are largely Muslim and in fact, the Muslims are not, I believe, a majority in the South at all.

I think you need to do a little more historical research, recent history by the way. In the election before the coup, the majority of southerners refused to vote, they boycotted the election. Prior to that, when Thaksin had, once again, not won many seats in the South he stated that he would help those people who voted for him. Floods in Chiang Mai showed immediate and massive government aid. Floods in Hat Yai showed the govt showing up a week later with food and water. Southerners learned how much they could rely on Thaksin for help there.

Most of the people I know who have gone up to Bangkok to demonstrate have done so at their own expense not because they are necessarily Pro-PAD but because they hate Thaksin.

Thanks SBK.

My initial question about ''Muslim'' was withdrawn immediately when my assuming appeared to be incorrect. I am man enough to admit when I noticed I was not correct.

The other point was that I was questioning (and attacked immediately by some) the target number of 100,000 who would show up in a matter of hours and jump in -amazingly available at Hat Yai central station- 2,000 buses.

Anyone seen 2,000 buses, available in 1 day ? (PAD: Buses are ready for the 24-hour, non-stop departures to transport the protesters from today to Sunday.)

Anyone realize the logistics behind such an operation ?

That's why I doubted the 100,000 operation (in a matter of hours) and I also doubt the availability of 2,000 buses but maybe I'm wrong again...

Animatic, thank you for your lecture but I was already in Hat Yai and Songkhla more than 30 years ago, long before I went to Samui for the first time, just after the airport opened in '89. I have been around a bit but I am still far from being a 'Thailand' expert like some of you are, or claim to be.

Insight: You're dead wrong about me being pro-Thaksin. Show me ANY message where I said/claimed so. Don't write nonsense please

You are right however that I am strong anti-PAD and the future will prove I am right about their -sneaky and hidden- goals ! I have said it before: I simply can't understand that there are intelligent Farang members on TV who are so blinded by Mr. Sondhi L. and his gang.

Maybe some of you should do some investigation and research about Sondhi Limthongkul.

I did....and don't trust him for a single second....

LaoPo

[hammered]

Interesting piece by Shawn Crispin in the A-times:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/JK22Ae02.html

[Los78]

Yes, 24 hours is a hel_l of a bus ride. I would die of motion sickness.

The Thais probably sleep through it , wake up at parliament house and ready to rumble.

2000 buses, thats right, how much for a return 24hour bus trip ? 500 baht one way ?

That works out to be 100 million baht for logistics, plus other costs. Does the PAD pick up the bill, if not they surely cant be expecting 100000 people. They would be lucky to get 5000 people.

If the government sniffs trouble they can always barricade a strategic section of the road 200klms before bkk.

Till yesterday I was in Ranong, where they just gear up, spoke with the leader of PAD there, a lady, owner of the gasoline station and some supporter, one owner of a resort....My guess many come with their own cars, packed full of people or local travel agencies give their minivan free of charge, and the share the fuel costs between the passenger.....

So minor costs.....We also had one free seat in our car and offered to take one person to Bangkok, but they told, there are already so many cars available that in Ranong is no shortage at the moment.

Interesting report. Where theres a will theres a way I suppose.

The people I know from Ranong, Chumphon and Nakhon Si Thammarat (non of them muslim), are absolute mad about the government.....Most of them wealthy enough to go on their own to Bangkok (and of course willing to give their friends a free ride).

Yeah I am sure a very small group of bored housewives pay their own way to Bangkok. But for 95 % Sondhi and co organise the trip over.

[catmac]

Seh Daeng (Maj-Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol) represents ALL those whom desperately seek to protect Thailand's cronies, thugs and crooks, to allow them to ensure Thailand remains trapped by corruption, collusion and nepotism (the only system they can thrive under).

Come now, Baht&sold, are you saying that Seh Daeng is a supporter of PAD?

"an entire nation trapped forever in time so the REAL 'privileged elite' (Thaksin and cronies) can continue to collude to plunder the state completely unfettered and protect each other at all costs (even a nation's...) "

So right, but Thaksin's main fault was that he just wasn't a member of that "REAL privileged elite". He was regarded as an impudent upstart, a country yokel upsetting the applecart of the mainly Bangkok based old-money families, who together with the military had perfected the art of corruption over so many years.

On a more serious note, Seh Daeng is obviously a complete nutter, who needs to be taken out of the equation by whatever means are available. As far as I understand, he is not involved in the leadership of DADD but is acting as a loose cannon, but still a dangerous threat to stability. If he represents anything, it is how Thailand has become victim to a bloated military establishment getting involved with day-to-day politics, a sure sign of Thailand's status as a third-world country (viz the role of the generals in Burma and the DR Congo!).

Edited November 22, 2008 by catmac

[LaoPo]

Interesting piece by Shawn Crispin in the A-times:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/JK22Ae02.html

Interesting ?...that's a massive understatement. Thanks for the link !

The article and -possible- outcome is scary. So far the pro- and anti-government forces are just talking and fighting about the political consequences for the future and sharing powers.

However, the vast majority of ALL Thai do not even realize the upcoming economical disaster which will hurt Thailand very bad. I read a message by someone who said that Thailand would not have to face a recession....

How wrong that statement will prove to be, will be shown when hundreds of factories are forced to close. The motor- and car industry will be severely hurt and thousands but more likely hundreds of thousands of workers will lose their jobs. That includes the tourism and service industry.

I expect growth to dip further in 2009 and end up from being a mere 0-2% but if the world recession (or a possible depression) worsens, this could end up even lower.

This will not yet happen overnight or this and next month but will come into full force in 2009. Just wait....

IF that happens, and I see no positive changes at the moment that would direct so, Thailand will become like one big explosive bomb, especially with all those big -political- ego's amongst the powerful elite families behind the curtains.

It will be very difficult to control the -jobless- angry masses !

LaoPo

[clicker123]

One poor sod from PPP got caught up in the action on Oct 7, too. He wants government compensation of 100,000 baht.

Check out this MP's claim:

"He claimed he had blurred vision as a result of police use of tear gas. He said he was admitted to hospital from Oct 8-18 during which he underwent an eye operation. His medical bills came to about 120,000 baht."

PADding the bill, by any chance?

bangkokpost.com

I got sick to my stomach from reading about the politician with blurred vision who wants 100000 baht money.

Can I get money now, too?

[hammered]

Interesting piece by Shawn Crispin in the A-times:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/JK22Ae02.html

Interesting ?...that's a massive understatement. Thanks for the link !

The article and -possible- outcome is scary. So far the pro- and anti-government forces are just talking and fighting about the political consequences for the future and sharing powers.

However, the vast majority of ALL Thai do not even realize the upcoming economical disaster which will hurt Thailand very bad. I read a message by someone who said that Thailand would not have to face a recession....

How wrong that statement will prove to be, will be shown when hundreds of factories are forced to close. The motor- and car industry will be severely hurt and thousands but more likely hundreds of thousands of workers will lose their jobs. That includes the tourism and service industry.

I expect growth to dip further in 2009 and end up from being a mere 0-2% but if the world recession (or a possible depression) worsens, this could end up even lower.

This will not yet happen overnight or this and next month but will come into full force in 2009. Just wait....

IF that happens, and I see no positive changes at the moment that would direct so, Thailand will become like one big explosive bomb, especially with all those big -political- ego's amongst the powerful elite families behind the curtains.

It will be very difficult to control the -jobless- angry masses !

LaoPo

Ive got a feeling that Shawn is fishing with htis one. Anyway he'll either look like a prophet of genius or it will be one of his more embarrassing pieces that is quietly forgotten. It does raise an interesting question thouhg of who does run the country if the government parties are disolved and before they can join a new party.

[LaoPo]

Ive got a feeling that Shawn is fishing with htis one. Anyway he'll either look like a prophet of genius or it will be one of his more embarrassing pieces that is quietly forgotten. It does raise an interesting question thouhg of who does run the country if the government parties are disolved and before they can join a new party.

Fishing......? could be. But those rumours could have a basis of truth also and would suit the PAD very much.

WHO, in the end will rule the country is indeed an interesting question but an even more interesting question is...for how long ?

Personally, I fear the (consequences of) economical downturn even more than the present unrest.

LaoPo

[catmac]

LOL --- Joe much of the world including many of the people in Thailand have spoken out about the excesses by the police on Oct 7th.

Again I invite you to read the 111 pages on this thread and then start on the rest of the political threads

"Much of the World"? Care to elaborate on that? I don't recall any country protesting to the Thai government re Oct 7th.

And please JD, do curtail your condescending jibes at anyone who dares to post against PAD. We all know by now, that you and your band of rabid PADisters are so much more informed of everything, so much our intellectual and moral superiors that we don't need reminding of it everytime you post!

[animatic]

Ive got a feeling that Shawn is fishing with htis one. Anyway he'll either look like a prophet of genius or it will be one of his more embarrassing pieces that is quietly forgotten. It does raise an interesting question thouhg of who does run the country if the government parties are disolved and before they can join a new party.

Fishing......? could be. But those rumours could have a basis of truth also and would suit the PAD very much.

WHO, in the end will rule the country is indeed an interesting question but an even more interesting question is...for how long ?

Personally, I fear the (consequences of) economical downturn even more than the present unrest.

LaoPo

Well it does make sonse on one level.

~If the courts do see this erasing the existing Exectuive Power Structure

who DOES run things in the interim? A really good question.

At least someone behind the scenes has given some thought to a possible solution.

You may not LIKE it's method, but it's better than nothing, NOT running everything.

Any solutions yourself?

Who should take the helm if the main coalition paties are ALL found dissolved,

and elections take 2 months to get going?

The only functioning entities will be:

Judiciary committee, Senate committee, House committee, Privy Council.

[cmsally]

Does anyone else get that sinking feeling that in the future when there is reporting about Thailand, it will be ...

" and this is xxx reporting on the situation in BKK from nearby here in Rangoon."

People in control really do need to consider the previous points mentioned about a failing economy because it surely will happen and it will affect those living on the edge considerably.

This model may work for an agrarian, illiterate society but somehow I doubt all will fit back into the feudal bottle.

You will still have the Catch 22 situation where one side will claim it as a victory and then you will be back to square one.

Slightly off the point but relevant is that this year in Chiang Mai as its cold (well by Thai standards) you see the usual influx of mostly BKK tourists. This year is the first year that I have heard local people say BKK people having created such a political mess should stay at home and live in it. Somehow I think a grab for power by the BKK elite will not go down well in some regions of Thailand.

[LaoPo]

Ive got a feeling that Shawn is fishing with htis one. Anyway he'll either look like a prophet of genius or it will be one of his more embarrassing pieces that is quietly forgotten. It does raise an interesting question thouhg of who does run the country if the government parties are disolved and before they can join a new party.

Fishing......? could be. But those rumours could have a basis of truth also and would suit the PAD very much.

WHO, in the end will rule the country is indeed an interesting question but an even more interesting question is...for how long ?

Personally, I fear the (consequences of) economical downturn even more than the present unrest.

LaoPo

Well it does make sonse on one level.

~If the courts do see this erasing the existing Exectuive Power Structure

who DOES run things in the interim? A really good question.

At least someone behind the scenes has given some thought to a possible solution.

You may not LIKE it's method, but it's better than nothing, NOT running everything.

Any solutions yourself?

Who should take the helm if the main coalition paties are ALL found dissolved,

and elections take 2 months to get going?

The only functioning entities will be:

Judiciary committee, Senate committee, House committee, Privy Council.

Any solution myself ?....

Do you think that any of us Farang would possibly have a solution ?....

You, being an American living on Samui, claim to know the only functioning entities....?..really ?

Sir, I have been coming and going, working, business and holidays to Thailand and many other Far Eastern countries for so many years that I forgot how long (joking of course) but don't ever think that Farang will even come close to possible solutions because we are not able to think like a Thai...a Chinese....a Japanese...a Korean. We can try but we will never think, act and come to solutions the way they do.

Forget it

We (farang) can discuss, disagree and fight with words on a forum like TV about political solutions in Thailand but we are NEVER able to come up with the proper solutions !

I was and still am surprised over and over again that Farang always know better than the man in the Far East himself.

Many Farang have no idea about the fast growing self awareness of the Easterner in general.....his growing self confidence.

It's time for us Farang to be a bit more modest and to listen a bit more to the Easterner; he could teach us a thing or two

The 21st century belongs to the East, not the West (anymore).

LaoPo

[jdinasia]

Remember folks ... that the bureaucracy still exists. But Lao Po's thoughts about "the Easterner" are kind of funny! The same thing has been said in every century since the 1600's

[LaoPo]

Remember folks ... that the bureaucracy still exists. But Lao Po's thoughts about "the Easterner" are kind of funny! The same thing has been said in every century since the 1600's

..what kept you so long, bashing me again jdoutofasia ?

Don't be such a wise guy and just accept that the 21st century belongs to the Far East, not ''our'' West; but there will always be hardliners like yourself who know better...right ?

I'm not being funny, I'm talking reality but that doesn't suit a few -from declining powerhouses- I suppose.

LaoPo

[jdinasia]

I did not bash you LaoPo ... and I didn't use tacky childish nicknames for you either

You may not 'understand the Eastern Mind' but please don't assume that no "westerner" does.

Edited November 22, 2008 by jdinasia

[hammered]

Does anyone else get that sinking feeling that in the future when there is reporting about Thailand, it will be ...

" and this is xxx reporting on the situation in BKK from nearby here in Rangoon."

People in control really do need to consider the previous points mentioned about a failing economy because it surely will happen and it will affect those living on the edge considerably.

This model may work for an agrarian, illiterate society but somehow I doubt all will fit back into the feudal bottle.

You will still have the Catch 22 situation where one side will claim it as a victory and then you will be back to square one.

Slightly off the point but relevant is that this year in Chiang Mai as its cold (well by Thai standards) you see the usual influx of mostly BKK tourists. This year is the first year that I have heard local people say BKK people having created such a political mess should stay at home and live in it. Somehow I think a grab for power by the BKK elite will not go down well in some regions of Thailand.

You get similar comments form different bits of the country. Sometimes they blame Bnagkok sometimes they blame Thaksin, it depends where you are. The regional divide is potentially a far bigger problem than the class one and one that wont go away. If Thaksin loses bits of the country wont be happy if he wins bits of ther country wont be happy. A compromise is the best hope but ......

[cmsally]

I think the concept of an Eastern mind as some sort of amorphous consensus that hangs over this part of the world is a fallacy.

Part of the reason that governance of this part of the world will become steadily more difficult is that the "Eastern mind" - it comes in many shapes and outlooks- is very quick to grasp the benefits of other systems and communities throughout the world. Vast numbers have been educated, worked, visited other parts of the world and have access to English media etc.

Hence all will not fit back into the bottle neatly.

Asians are some of the quickest people to learn by comparison and some of the most persevering when it comes to improving their situation in life.

[cmsally]

Does anyone else get that sinking feeling that in the future when there is reporting about Thailand, it will be ...

" and this is xxx reporting on the situation in BKK from nearby here in Rangoon."

People in control really do need to consider the previous points mentioned about a failing economy because it surely will happen and it will affect those living on the edge considerably.

This model may work for an agrarian, illiterate society but somehow I doubt all will fit back into the feudal bottle.

You will still have the Catch 22 situation where one side will claim it as a victory and then you will be back to square one.

Slightly off the point but relevant is that this year in Chiang Mai as its cold (well by Thai standards) you see the usual influx of mostly BKK tourists. This year is the first year that I have heard local people say BKK people having created such a political mess should stay at home and live in it. Somehow I think a grab for power by the BKK elite will not go down well in some regions of Thailand.

You get similar comments form different bits of the country. Sometimes they blame Bnagkok sometimes they blame Thaksin, it depends where you are. The regional divide is potentially a far bigger problem than the class one and one that wont go away. If Thaksin loses bits of the country wont be happy if he wins bits of ther country wont be happy. A compromise is the best hope but ......

I think you are absolutely correct that the regional divide is a big one and when compounded with the elite (elite rather than class) divide, it really seems insurmountable. Oh dear back to square 1

[jdinasia]

Which 'elite' is that cmsally?

[hammered]

Does anyone else get that sinking feeling that in the future when there is reporting about Thailand, it will be ...

" and this is xxx reporting on the situation in BKK from nearby here in Rangoon."

People in control really do need to consider the previous points mentioned about a failing economy because it surely will happen and it will affect those living on the edge considerably.

This model may work for an agrarian, illiterate society but somehow I doubt all will fit back into the feudal bottle.

You will still have the Catch 22 situation where one side will claim it as a victory and then you will be back to square one.

Slightly off the point but relevant is that this year in Chiang Mai as its cold (well by Thai standards) you see the usual influx of mostly BKK tourists. This year is the first year that I have heard local people say BKK people having created such a political mess should stay at home and live in it. Somehow I think a grab for power by the BKK elite will not go down well in some regions of Thailand.

You get similar comments form different bits of the country. Sometimes they blame Bnagkok sometimes they blame Thaksin, it depends where you are. The regional divide is potentially a far bigger problem than the class one and one that wont go away. If Thaksin loses bits of the country wont be happy if he wins bits of ther country wont be happy. A compromise is the best hope but ......

I think you are absolutely correct that the regional divide is a big one and when compounded with the elite (elite rather than class) divide, it really seems insurmountable. Oh dear back to square 1

You are right to not understimate the elite divide too. Plus as others have mentioned pop in the economic letdown whihc right now nothing is being done about in Thailand and you have potential for a truly nightmare scenario that even a rapprochement among the elite will not be able to resolve.

[Plus]

Elites are not divided - why should they be?

Yes, it will take a long time for the coutnry to heal, but there's really no any other way.

Compromise with Thaksin is not possible, no matter how much you want to talk about it.

He wants nothing by total political victory.

If you hope he's take the money and be quiet you are fooling only yourself - he won't step back no matter how many concessions you make.

[cmsally]

Which 'elite' is that cmsally?

The elite as in the top levels of bureaucracy and military. Not exactly concrete as they don't all necessarily get along, and are of course tied in with business interests and therefore politics.

However when you say the elites are not divided I am not sure that I agree, as there are a fair amount that will swing with the winning party. To a certain extent elites will follow the pattern of political party members when it comes to switching allegiances ie quite often.

I think it would be a big mistake to suggest there is this fictional cohesive elite body that is capable of governing the country with neither faction nor turmoil.

[jdinasia]

Which 'elite' is that cmsally?

The elite as in the top levels of bureaucracy and military. Not exactly concrete as they don't all necessarily get along, and are of course tied in with business interests and therefore politics.

However when you say the elites are not divided I am not sure that I agree, as there are a fair amount that will swing with the winning party. To a certain extent elites will follow the pattern of political party members when it comes to switching allegiances ie quite often.

I think it would be a big mistake to suggest there is this fictional cohesive elite body that is capable of governing the country with neither faction nor turmoil.

So that means Thaksin and the MP's from the PPP and the families that control entire communities in Isaan are NOT elite?

Anyone that thinks that both sides are not 'elite' are just deluding themselves imho. Then again it is the same here as it is in most countries.

[h90]

Ive got a feeling that Shawn is fishing with htis one. Anyway he'll either look like a prophet of genius or it will be one of his more embarrassing pieces that is quietly forgotten. It does raise an interesting question thouhg of who does run the country if the government parties are disolved and before they can join a new party.

Fishing......? could be. But those rumours could have a basis of truth also and would suit the PAD very much.

WHO, in the end will rule the country is indeed an interesting question but an even more interesting question is...for how long ?

Personally, I fear the (consequences of) economical downturn even more than the present unrest.

LaoPo

Well it does make sonse on one level.

~If the courts do see this erasing the existing Exectuive Power Structure

who DOES run things in the interim? A really good question.

At least someone behind the scenes has given some thought to a possible solution.

You may not LIKE it's method, but it's better than nothing, NOT running everything.

Any solutions yourself?

Who should take the helm if the main coalition paties are ALL found dissolved,

and elections take 2 months to get going?

The only functioning entities will be:

Judiciary committee, Senate committee, House committee, Privy Council.

PPP has already the new backup party list, the others most probably also.

just a few people get banned so there is still a relative of Thaksin somewhere who is not yet banned from politic.

so if PPP plays it shameless there is not much impact 20-30 MPS maybe

[cmsally]

Which 'elite' is that cmsally?

The elite as in the top levels of bureaucracy and military. Not exactly concrete as they don't all necessarily get along, and are of course tied in with business interests and therefore politics.

However when you say the elites are not divided I am not sure that I agree, as there are a fair amount that will swing with the winning party. To a certain extent elites will follow the pattern of political party members when it comes to switching allegiances ie quite often.

I think it would be a big mistake to suggest there is this fictional cohesive elite body that is capable of governing the country with neither faction nor turmoil.

So that means Thaksin and the MP's from the PPP and the families that control entire communities in Isaan are NOT elite?

Anyone that thinks that both sides are not 'elite' are just deluding themselves imho. Then again it is the same here as it is in most countries.

Yes you are quite correct , they are both elites. It is though, the first time that a "nouveau riches" elite (for want of a better description) has found such a popular base. Therefore it is a plausible threat to the established BKK elite (old elite - for want of a better description); such a threat that it should be got rid of at all costs.

Then of course through marriage, business alliance etc. the two do to a certain extent merge.

That is why it is dangerous to think that handing over power on a plate to the so called elite would be a safe option.

You end up with one of a few outcomes. A very volatile power vacuum, where alliances will be traded and the rules not clear at all. Or some sort of stagnation as "power" is held but no one is quite sure what to do with it. Sort of "pass the buck to the other guy but keep my position in doing so". In effect the same kind of stagnation the last coup brought.

I am sure there could be other possibilities too.

[h90]

Does anyone else get that sinking feeling that in the future when there is reporting about Thailand, it will be ...

" and this is xxx reporting on the situation in BKK from nearby here in Rangoon."

People in control really do need to consider the previous points mentioned about a failing economy because it surely will happen and it will affect those living on the edge considerably.

This model may work for an agrarian, illiterate society but somehow I doubt all will fit back into the feudal bottle.

You will still have the Catch 22 situation where one side will claim it as a victory and then you will be back to square one.

Slightly off the point but relevant is that this year in Chiang Mai as its cold (well by Thai standards) you see the usual influx of mostly BKK tourists. This year is the first year that I have heard local people say BKK people having created such a political mess should stay at home and live in it. Somehow I think a grab for power by the BKK elite will not go down well in some regions of Thailand.

You get similar comments form different bits of the country. Sometimes they blame Bnagkok sometimes they blame Thaksin, it depends where you are. The regional divide is potentially a far bigger problem than the class one and one that wont go away. If Thaksin loses bits of the country wont be happy if he wins bits of ther country wont be happy. A compromise is the best hope but ......

The regional division is far overestimated. North East may love Thaksin, but the not paid demonstrations of the Thaksin supporters were always just 50-100 people. So not too much love. And how many others they loved before (including Chavalit)?? When the next corrupt one comes in 2 years and hand out loans and cash they will love him again.

[jdinasia]

Which 'elite' is that cmsally?

The elite as in the top levels of bureaucracy and military. Not exactly concrete as they don't all necessarily get along, and are of course tied in with business interests and therefore politics.

However when you say the elites are not divided I am not sure that I agree, as there are a fair amount that will swing with the winning party. To a certain extent elites will follow the pattern of political party members when it comes to switching allegiances ie quite often.

I think it would be a big mistake to suggest there is this fictional cohesive elite body that is capable of governing the country with neither faction nor turmoil.

So that means Thaksin and the MP's from the PPP and the families that control entire communities in Isaan are NOT elite?

Anyone that thinks that both sides are not 'elite' are just deluding themselves imho. Then again it is the same here as it is in most countries.

Yes you are quite correct , they are both elites. It is though, the first time that a "nouveau riches" elite (for want of a better description) has found such a popular base. Therefore it is a plausible threat to the established BKK elite (old elite - for want of a better description); such a threat that it should be got rid of at all costs.

Then of course through marriage, business alliance etc. the two do to a certain extent merge.

That is why it is dangerous to think that handing over power on a plate to the so called elite would be a safe option.

You end up with one of a few outcomes. A very volatile power vacuum, where alliances will be traded and the rules not clear at all. Or some sort of stagnation as "power" is held but no one is quite sure what to do with it. Sort of "pass the buck to the other guy but keep my position in doing so". In effect the same kind of stagnation the last coup brought.

I am sure there could be other possibilities too.

I am confused again .... Thaksin's family is not Nouveau Riche, nor are the others in that clique ... Don't be confused ny Thaksin's meteoric acquisition of wealth during his time in office. His family has always had REAL money. It isn't so much about regional stuff would be correct though. Thakisn is not from the countryside and has never been poor. His lieutenants also fall into that category. Not much different than the big 2 political parties where I am from (though right now we are discussing the 'elites' and not political parties) The overwhelming majority of control rests in old families selling influence in one way or another.