Big R - Effects In Chiang Mai - 2008

[whiterussian]

The big "R" word. So far we have increased food prices, weakening farang currencies, decreasing motorbike prices and from what i see real estate is drying up. (maybe i just have a bad estate agent) What next? Wish i could see CM after the baht crash in 97. Is it time to invest in Buffalo?

One scenario:

• Farang zone/Thapae goes belly up.
  
• Nightmarket dissapears, hookers go unhooked.
  
• Farang teachers on 4x Thai wages get pay cuts.
  
• Thais get wise and drop prices just to be able to buy fuel for the land cruiser. (mid 2009)
  
• Vegetarian falafel bars appear. (xmas 2009).
  
• CM becomes THE global "cheap as chips" escape holiday.
  
• Farang bars sprout up, hookers back in gainful employment.
  
• Nightmarket appears again (xmas 2010).
  

or will the demographics of Chiang Mai with its pool of retired expats hold together CM as it is now?

Edited October 25, 2008 by UKWEBPRO

[ThaiPauly]

You worry too much

Relax and have a beer

[Sathip2008]

You worry too much

I'd even say : "YOU WOLLEE TOO MUT"

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

The big "R" word. So far we have increased food prices, weakening farang currencies, decreasing motorbike prices and from what i see real estate is drying up. (maybe i just have a bad estate agent) What next? Wish i could see CM after the baht crash in 97. Is it time to invest in Buffalo?

One scenario:

• Farang zone/Thapae goes belly up.
  
• Nightmarket dissapears, hookers go unhooked.
  
• Farang teachers on 4x Thai wages get pay cuts.
  
• Thais get wise and drop prices just to be able to buy fuel for the land cruiser. (mid 2009)
  
• Vegetarian falafel bars appear. (xmas 2009).
  
• CM becomes THE global "cheap as chips" escape holiday.
  
• Farang bars sprout up, hookers back in gainful employment.
  
• Nightmarket appears again (xmas 2010).
  

or will the demographics of Chiang Mai with its pool of retired expats hold together CM as it is now?

Are their any members who were around for the 97 asian crisis and aftermath? Would be interesting to hear their observations about the economy in 98 to 2000. This time around could be a bit worse than 97. The globalization market bubble that is bursting now will likely be referenced in history books for centuries to come. Fascinating times.

Edited October 25, 2008 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[whiterussian]

50% of the drop still to come on global markets/pensions etc, i think. Interested in watching what happens. I know for a fact many Thais/Sino Thai's have lost everything in this mayhem. Anyway, Im off for two days now - giving warm clothes to Hill Tribe folk around Pai.

[PeaceBlondie]

My crystal ball is at the shop, getting polished by a Polish guy, so I will make a prediction by the seat of my pants, now that the diarrhea is gone.

We will get by. Americans on 40 baht to the dollar will make up for the Koreans who cannot afford Chiang Mai. All the dogs and cats being saved by farang will have 9 million babies. There will be two new burger bars and another Mexican restaurant.

[Gonzo the Face]

The big "R" word. So far we have increased food prices, weakening farang currencies, decreasing motorbike prices and from what i see real estate is drying up. (maybe i just have a bad estate agent) What next? Wish i could see CM after the baht crash in 97. Is it time to invest in Buffalo?

One scenario:

• Farang zone/Thapae goes belly up.
  
• Nightmarket dissapears, hookers go unhooked.
  
• Farang teachers on 4x Thai wages get pay cuts.
  
• Thais get wise and drop prices just to be able to buy fuel for the land cruiser. (mid 2009)
  
• Vegetarian falafel bars appear. (xmas 2009).
  
• CM becomes THE global "cheap as chips" escape holiday.
  
• Farang bars sprout up, hookers back in gainful employment.
  
• Nightmarket appears again (xmas 2010).
  

or will the demographics of Chiang Mai with its pool of retired expats hold together CM as it is now?

Thats ok UK, You can say the "R" word , thats recession.

The word of the season not to say is the "D" word, ala 1929

Thats ok UK, I call him UK , you know,,,,,, I looked into his eyes and his soul, and our minds met. Funny I thought the last time I called him vlaimir ?????

Edited October 25, 2008 by Gonzo the Face

[cnxmike]

It seems to me, that the situation has improved recently. Yesterday I was in town, and it looked quite busy. Most places had a lot of customers. Maybe we've reached the end of the tunnel.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Would be interesting to hear their observations about the economy in 98 to 2000. This time around could be a bit worse than 97.

I was around before, during and after that (as were many others of course).

It did NOT have a big impact at all. It was however VERY different from what we see now. 97 was primarily a CURRENCY crisis; the Thai baht finally was floated against the US dollar, meaning what used to be a 25-ish rate went up to near 50 before going back down a little.

The key thing however was this: Really not a lot of key things in life were affected at all; prices for just about everything remained the same EXCEPT for some imported / luxury items.. But your regular shopping and so on pretty much remained at the same price. So the impact was minimal. If anything this was a huge advantage for Chiang Mai because all the local wood carvings and furniture and all the other crap they make around here suddenly was exceptionally competitive, even more than it already was.

What we see right now though seems different, though to be honest I don't notice any impact on anything important here as well. Sure after '98 a lot of people's money went a lot further suddenly, now we see that back down. Big deal. It's not like you'd be living better if you moved home would you? So just suck it up and learn to appreciate the good things in life that honestly you can still afford just fine.

[whiterussian]

Thats ok UK, I call him UK , you know,,,,,, I looked into his eyes and his soul, and our minds met. Funny I thought the last time I called him vlaimir ?????

Hmm... you know how ancestors mine come country Russia have? We meet before already have? or not? krap.

Just back from Pai, where Bangkok bucks have flooded in catering to Thai's, new resorts springing up everywhere, Golf course and big Tesco rumours...the land rush is on!

Ive got to laugh at the kee nok farang thinking they are saving a buck in Pai, the prices are obscene! 90 baht for a Leo! Whiskey double the price! Guesthouse shacks for the price of a new air-conn'ed-powershowered room in CM. Maybe the Bangkok bucks rule CM, not the farang trade.

Edited October 28, 2008 by UKWEBPRO

[SoloFlyer]

Tesco rumours have been going round for yrs, what's the latest one?

[Sathip2008]

Went to Kalare this evening (in the Night Bazar) and the shops are closing one after another over there. Every week I see more and more space for rent there. Plus the new Mall (opposite Kalare, behind D2 Hotel) was supposed to open in July, but so far, just the first floor has a few shops... sad situation