Thailand's Real Economic Sector Begins To Feel Effects Of Us Crisis

[PeaceBlondie]

Reading this thread made my eyes bleed...new members that flame to their hearts delight, people posting in all caps, nested quoting to 10 levels or more...

Just because they are all caps does not mean they have to be regular size.

[peekint]

".......the government must attempt every possible concrete measure to drive the economy ahead in the remaining two months of this year."

That could well make matters worse.

If I am driving in 2-wheel drive down a little 'fair-weather short cut' unpaved track ( such as we have around her), and the heavens open and it pisses down like a cow onto a flat rock (as happens round here) and then I see a puddly patch ahead, I do not drive ahead. I stop and engage 4-wheel drive and move into the puddly patch carefully. Then, if it starts getting worse, I back out and leave the short cut and take the long, tarmacced way round.

This is not going to be a temporary recession. America is not going to be back to importing things it doesn't need (like more Isuzu pickups, built in Thailand) in a couple of quarters. So it is no time to "attempt every possible concrete measure to drive the economy ahead..............."

This is a time when the Government should retrench. Cut back on public spending and stop any new costly developments.

Closed firms pay no profit taxes. Workers whose jobs have become redundant pay no income tax. The Government's income is on the way down.

What a government might do when going into a short recession of the variety that we have previously seen in our lifetimes would be the wrong response to what is coming now.

I believe the above is a quote from Herbert Hoover c 1929

[samuibeachcomber]

Samui,

The problem with your suggestion that interest rates should be raised is the fact that you would drive most small businesses straight into bankruptcy. They rely heavily on their overdraft facility, especially in hard times when their customers take longer and longer to pay their bills. I agree that reducing rates alone will have little effect now on the recession, but used in conjunction with other stimulus methods we can effect a recovery relatively quickly, next summer all will be starting to look good IMHO.

ok so what other things could be done to help small business(if interest rates could be kept higher and i must admit i have a vested interest for higher rates)? and i admit the likelyhood of rates going higher are zilch.

[gbswales]

I am appalled and ashamed of many of the comments being made here - such as "why should I care". It is this attitude which is the root cause of the economic downturn - selfishness and greed. My late father, who only dabbled in the stock market late in life, was appalled to find out that people only invested money to make as much quick profit as they could. They didn't care about the company they were investing in, or have any thought for the long term good of it - just invest, divest and try to get rich. There is only so much real "wealth" in the world and natural laws dictate that if people take more for themselves then others get poorer. In modern times we have been building cities on sand by allowing the banks and governments to generate non-existant wealth to buy their way out of problems. Anyone who has ever really been in debt knows that there are only two ways to get out of it (1) take the pain yourself and work out ways to repay it or (2) pass the pain onto others by going bankrupt - I dont need statistics to prove what most people do nowadays.

People who complain about corrupt, self-interested politicians are just being hypocrytical - Politicians are not the creators of society but a reflection of it. PAD can arugue the morality of Thaksin but not question their own? The poor people in the country are doing exactly what the rich people in the city do - thinking only about themselves.

A kind elderly person I once knew said this about how you should measure yourself in life - by believing that "The person I stand closest to, at any moment in time, is always more important than me"

[ericjt]

I'd suggest that if there are people or groups who pull the strings from behind the curtain, then they are hosing us all over, one group at a time. And if there are no Illuminati or other shadow groups in control, then it's the market, but one way or another, we're all getting hosed. First it was the USD holders. Now it's the people holding every other major currency, with AUD leading the way. And let's not forget people trying to preserve their savings in non-currency assets like oil, precious metals, real estate, businesses, commodities, and other non-currency stores of value. We're all getting our turn in the barrel.

I'd also like to suggest that we all do whatever we can to help the situation here in Thailand and elsewhere. When business is good, life is generally better for everyone. And when business is bad and people are suffering, almost everyone's quality of life eventually gets hurt. The temporary gains or advantages enjoyed by people with savings who are able to buy things more cheaply for a while are eventually overshadowed (in many? or most? cases) by blowback from the suffering of millions of their neighbors.

I'm not a saint and I'm not above shopping for good deals if they're out there, but I doubt that many of us will come out ahead in the long run if the worldwide depression that seems to be coming actually arrives.

I'd appreciate any comments or suggestions.

[ray23]

Zorro nailed it this is not forever.

Me I would rather ride this out here after six years I know I could cut back a lot and still be OK.

Thais surviving nothing personal folks if things get tough I would much rather rely on my wife here then anyone I know. That girl can climb a tree and come back with food

I have had to tighten the belt now for three years, to be honest I still have a good life and plenty of more room to go if I have to.

As for us if we can might be chance to help. Going to be a lot more craftsman around with nothing to do. Got some projects that need o be done. Now might be the time.

I have tried to do that with the housekeepers village when people lose work and need to earn few baht. Pay them the same dailey wage they get from the contractors, buy the material myself. The work is done at the same qaulity for less, but the worker gets the same.

Takes a bit of patience though, I have always told them if their boss calls go work for him, mine will wait till they have time. Took three guys and a month to get the interior of the hosue painted room by room. Cost for labor was around 1,000 baht.

But this is Udon not a tourist area, things there may be very different. My point being if you can help now would be a good time. If you can't, you can't The one thing I normally don't do is give money, for the sake of giving money. But, thats me.

There is nothing we can do for the government but we might able to help a neighbor or two.

Theft being up probably what would you do to feed your children?

Where Issan will feel it will be in two ways. no money come from whatever the family member was doing that let them send it home. Secondly there will be more mouths to feed on the farm.

The rice farmers, corn farmers and rubber farmers are already after the government for money. They will probably ge on pape anyway they usually do. The rubber farmers are talking about pulling out trees. I hope they are talking about trees that are no longer productive. To destroy a rubber planatation because the price will be down for a few years is insane. All to drive the price up in a marke that is shrinking.

How soon people forget it wasn't that long ago that the cost of these items were sky high because oil was high. It will be high agian. I don't like pay cuts either but I have done some awfully low paying jobs in my simple becaue some income is better then no income.

You know we could argue about this and that but the reality is the entire world is in this mess. There will be difficult times ahead for many people. Who was right or wrong or it could have been done better if, really doesn't matter much anymore.

[chrislarsson]

It seems like the banking sector learned its lessons from the crisis in '97 and are in good shape.

Finances on a national level are also quite healthy. The foreign reserve is now greater than $100 billion, among the largest per capita in the world.

Thailand forigen reserve is just under $37 billion not 100

That is unless they just happened to make some $63 billion in the last 6 months

What is your source to this number?

According to Wikipedia it was 103,500 $ in Oct.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...change_reserves

[Leethom]

The advantage of a strong baht is that it allows wealthy Thais to invest in depressed foreign markets for substantial profit.When the baht weakens (which it will), it allows the wealthy to return foreign currencies for higher profits in Thailand.Of course, with a strong baht exports and tourism slow down, and Thai people lose their jobs and businesses close.About a month ago I was told the Bank of Thailand had 100 billion US dollars to keep the baht strong.I was also told the Minister of Finance advocated letting the baht go to 38 baht to the US dollar, to make exports more attractive, but was overruled.Wealthy Thais have the power to protect their interests.

[Felt 35]

I am appalled and ashamed of many of the comments being made here - such as "why should I care". It is this attitude which is the root cause of the economic downturn - selfishness and greed. My late father, who only dabbled in the stock market late in life, was appalled to find out that people only invested money to make as much quick profit as they could. They didn't care about the company they were investing in, or have any thought for the long term good of it - just invest, divest and try to get rich. There is only so much real "wealth" in the world and natural laws dictate that if people take more for themselves then others get poorer. In modern times we have been building cities on sand by allowing the banks and governments to generate non-existant wealth to buy their way out of problems. Anyone who has ever really been in debt knows that there are only two ways to get out of it (1) take the pain yourself and work out ways to repay it or (2) pass the pain onto others by going bankrupt - I dont need statistics to prove what most people do nowadays.

People who complain about corrupt, self-interested politicians are just being hypocrytical - Politicians are not the creators of society but a reflection of it. PAD can arugue the morality of Thaksin but not question their own? The poor people in the country are doing exactly what the rich people in the city do - thinking only about themselves.

A kind elderly person I once knew said this about how you should measure yourself in life - by believing that "The person I stand closest to, at any moment in time, is always more important than me"

Very well said.

[chrislarsson]

The advantage of a strong baht is that it allows wealthy Thais to invest in depressed foreign markets for substantial profit.When the baht weakens (which it will), it allows the wealthy to return foreign currencies for higher profits in Thailand.Of course, with a strong baht exports and tourism slow down, and Thai people lose their jobs and businesses close.About a month ago I was told the Bank of Thailand had 100 billion US dollars to keep the baht strong.I was also told the Minister of Finance advocated letting the baht go to 38 baht to the US dollar, to make exports more attractive, but was overruled.Wealthy Thais have the power to protect their interests.

The reason Thailand and many other Asian countries have such large foreign reserves is too keep their currencies low...not the opposite. To lower the baht Bank of Thailand would have to buy more dollars...which is probably not a good idea as the reserve is too large already and the dollar is likely to slide in the long term.

Btw, many wealthy Thais are in the export industry and benefit from a low baht.

Naturally the Ministry of Finance desire a lower valued baht, as it makes their life easier. But this may not be in the interest of the country at large. That is why it is believed that central banks and governments should be kept independent.

[eastlight]

I am no expert but it seems to me that the UK and European economies rapidly caught the cold from the US because their financial and lending institutions were interdependent and overstretched.

If Thailand, as we are so often told, is an export driven economy it stands to reason that the effects of what looks like being a deeper than average recession will only start to bite when the markets for those exports dry up. This will inevitably take a little longer to filter through. In this context the statement:

"in the fourth quarter of this year found that the US economic crisis had not adversely affected the Thai economy."

is utterly ridiculous

To lamely chase the US dollar and thus make exports uncompetitive seems fairly typical of the "stick our heads in the sand" mentality of many members of the Thai establishment.

Quite simply Thai products including tourism will be too expensive to customers in the outside world whose spending power is threatened by unemployment and falling property prices.

Something has got to change here.

I'm always surprised that comments regarding the tourist industry are few and far between at the moment. In the past, and particularly during the 1997 crisis when I believe the 'Amazing Thailand' promotion was put into full swing, the tourist industry was the saviour of the country.

The Thais appear to be completely oblivious to the fact that unemployment and the fear of unenemployment is increasing in the countries from which the tourists originate / airfares are increasing / and above all, especially in the case of us Brits, the exchange rate has tumbled.

I predict that this year's 'High Season' is likely to be a disaster as the reduced number of tourists stay for shorter periods and spend less when they are here.

[cclub75]

Finances on a national level are also quite healthy. The foreign reserve is now greater than $100 billion, among the largest per capita in the world.

Much of Thailand's exports are in commodities like food. Demands for these are unlikely to go down in a global downturn. People still need to eat, and food is not where their spending will be cut.

Oil prices are going down, which will help save the tourism sector from expensive air tickets.

Why people do not check their facts ?!!!!

No, commodities are not "much" of thai exports.

Agriculture + mining + fishing + forestry = roughly 15 % of total value of thai exports !

http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Ec...ges/Index.aspx#

table EC_XT_007

Okay ? So now you understand better why such article is bull shit ? Sure thai people will not starve to death... But if exports (manufacturing) are going down, the damages will be terrible.

Exports is the ONLY GROWTH engine for the thai economy (GDP). The only one.

It's not rice that is going to save the thai economy for buddha's sake.... Rice = 513 millions USD for a total exports of 15,8 billions USD (september figures).

[marc288888]

well for sure the thais not give a crap about us

[lovinglife]

It isn't a case of avoiding a crisis now it's how best to manage it. The UK is already a few months into recession in reality and the US and Eurozone isn't far behind, but thats good. Actions have been taken and once the money markets loosen up and banks start to lend again then we will all start to come out the other side. There is no major damage, so the banks took a pasting because they engaged in bad business, restructuring of banks will be a good thing in the long run.

Oil is at a fair price, food and water are in ample supply, manufacturing is in sound shape and ready to respond once demand returns.

From what I have read it looks like Thailand is doing the right thing right now, watching and waiting. You cannot beat the speculators at the moment with regard to the value of your currency, you could spend a lot of reserves and make no real difference.

Those suffering recession first will also be the first to show signs of recovery and when that happens those currencies will rise against the baht. And stability will be restored against $ and Yen.

Yes its going to be a tough 6 months but if we sit tight the good times will return. Thailand knows its main revenue comes from exports and tourism and the baht has to be at a realistic rate to stimulate that.

[natmcalpine]

Wow, Thai officialdom actually admitting that Thailand ( along with the rest of the world ) has a problem !! I am not sure if the Government cares too hoots.

[hansnl]

Looking at the main export products of Thailand, they would have been quite immune to the downturn. Thailand exports mostly food and food related products. However due to the Protestors Against Democracy, a significant number of tourist will stay away on top of the people who would like to come but who are bitten by the crisis. Foreign Companies have scaled down, will withdraw or will amend plans to invest in Thailand. They would have done so anyhow because of the credit crisis but because of the erratic behavior of Bangkok's finest protestors and their backers they probably go for the neighboring countries. Add the boys and girls from the rural parts who were kept in school by the ten thousand baht a year program from Thaksin ( Chamlong claims that using lottery proceedings for education are immoral but has no problem with the fact that the stand-up backers in brown take care of the lottery money nowadays) and you need to find new jobs already for close to 300,000 more people. THAT is what really hurts.

Unfortunately it is a taboo to talk about PAD here....

Maybe it is high time you look a wee bit further as the length of your nose?

The tourists maybe will stay away, because of the protests?

And what about the counterprotests?

A significant part of the tourists?

You mean significant as in statistics?

Really?

Depending on the outcome wished that can be, oh maybe as much as 0,05%

Wow!

Most tourists will probably stay away because of the economic downturn.

And maybe the non-political violence plays a part too?

Or maybe the not so positive way tourists are treated?

Very many reasons may be valid, orn have a significant influence on the number of tourists and the amount of money spent by these tourists.

More profitable in the long run if there are less tourists, but if the tourists still coming spend lots more money, the profit may be bigger?

I guess a lot of the reasons for the diminishing of the number of short- and longtime tourists can be found on these here website.

About the violence around the protests, as I recollect, most violence was against the PAD?

However.

As in every country, there are more sides to politics.

Problem is, we tend to attach us to the politics we hear about, we accept for whatever private reason.

The politics of any government, anywhere in the world, whatever political party, are always negative for the havenots, and mostly in the long run.

So were and are the politics in Thailand, China, Europe, United States, anywhere!

[roamer]

Finances on a national level are also quite healthy. The foreign reserve is now greater than $100 billion, among the largest per capita in the world.

Much of Thailand's exports are in commodities like food. Demands for these are unlikely to go down in a global downturn. People still need to eat, and food is not where their spending will be cut.

Oil prices are going down, which will help save the tourism sector from expensive air tickets.

Why people do not check their facts ?!!!!

No, commodities are not "much" of thai exports.

Agriculture + mining + fishing + forestry = roughly 15 % of total value of thai exports !

http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Ec...ges/Index.aspx#

table EC_XT_007

Okay ? So now you understand better why such article is bull shit ? Sure thai people will not starve to death... But if exports (manufacturing) are going down, the damages will be terrible.

Exports is the ONLY GROWTH engine for the thai economy (GDP). The only one.

It's not rice that is going to save the thai economy for buddha's sake.... Rice = 513 millions USD for a total exports of 15,8 billions USD (september figures).

Agreed, a lot of Wikipedia "facts" being quoted around.

[relayer]

Have any of you seen 'Zeitgeist - Addendum'? If so, how would you compare it to the current situation...why bother bailing out financial institutions when it just leads us down a path to the current state of affairs?

re: Zeitgeist I & II: the first is the windup, the second is the pitch (that is, for a one-world, totalitarian, cash-less, "resource-based", high-tech, Utopian, socialist society).

The problem is the very people who engineered this crisis own or control virtually all of the resources.

The plan is to eventually do away with physical money and issue us numbers to access "their" resources.

And if you step outa line, they invalidate your number.

Sorry, but I'll pass...

Edited October 31, 2008 by relayer

[Gravelrash]

Have any of you seen 'Zeitgeist - Addendum'? If so, how would you compare it to the current situation...why bother bailing out financial institutions when it just leads us down a path to the current state of affairs?

re: Zeitgeist I & II: the first is the windup, the second is the pitch (that is, for a one-world, totalitarian, cash-less, "resource-based", high-tech, Utopian, socialist society).

The problem is the very people who engineered this crisis own or control virtually all of the resources.

The plan is to eventually do away with physical money and issue us numbers to access "their" resources.

And if you step outa line, they invalidate your number.

Sorry, but I'll pass...

I'd largely agree that this has all been engineered so the few can acquire more at bargain prices, let alone all the debts they will cash in on later. Watching those movies here in Thailand, thought the info very thought provoking and mostly true. The alternative society they dream about can't ever see happening as the ever smaller percentage of those that own an ever larger percentage of everything would never allow it, thought it took away from the other credible info.

[Wombat6]

People would transfer money to Thai Banks if they paid a decent interest rate which would provide liquidity. Most banks don't pay interest Maybe they haven't heard that you don't get anything for nothing.

Promote tourism??? when the National Parks stop discrimination by charging a different price to Farangs they may get an increase in Visitors. Most visitors I have taked to won't spend money at National Parks because of this discrimination. Most countries in the World have laws re discrimination. I don't want to hear that the reason price is reduced for Thai people is that many of them are poor. I bet Thaksin (when he was here)or his mates and all the Thais driving Mercedes and BMW's are still charged the "poor peoples" price. What is behind the mentality of Banks refusing to issue credit cards to farangs unless they have a work permit?? Retirement Visa holders have to prove they have either a resonable income or a sizeable deposit in a Bank a/c???? ( same goes for term deposits....not allowed for retirement Visa holders.

[A_MIKE_U_LIKE]

".......the government must attempt every possible concrete measure to drive the economy ahead in the remaining two months of this year."

This is a time when the Government should retrench. Cut back on public spending and stop any new costly developments.

Closed firms pay no profit taxes. Workers whose jobs have become redundant pay no income tax. The Government's income is on the way down.

What a government might do when going into a short recession of the variety that we have previously seen in our lifetimes would be the wrong response to what is coming now.

IMHO the worst thing you can do is cut back on Government spending at this time. This causes more unemployment and thus less buying power and thus less products are sold and more unemployment follows and so on like a chain reaction i.e. it FEEDS a recession. You need to keep public spending at its current level or even increase it a little as long as it does not increase imports of goods required for such public projects and adversely affect the country's balance of payments . So generally speaking road construction and general public construction will create jobs, create a hopefully better environment (better roads etc), not adversely affect the country's balance of payments and this not make the recession worse. Sensible and well thought out public spending should be a big yes right now and has shown to work in the past in many countries. The way I see it in my lifetime is that it is not a policy encouraged much in right wing corporate run countries where they are glad to bring the labour force to its knees to exploit cheaper labour which is despicable, immoral and anti-social. It is though often employed carefully and successfully in more intelligent politically centre run countries where they have no greed driven hidden agendas.

As to unemployment well my wife's Laundry and friends of mine who run restaurants etc have a job getting staff who are reliable and worth employing. It seems that there must be full employment down here in Chonburi and Rayong as nobody seems concerned at keeping relatively well paid jobs as most of my friends pay higher than standard wages too and give more days off than the norm generally. When Thai staff just suddenly do not turn up at work saying they have taken a few days holiday without even asking beforehand then they of course should lose their jobs and rightly so. We need to see a lot more loyalty and respect for jobs (okay I have always agreed that family comes first but your job a close second) and for employers to ensure in return their staff are looked after well, paid at least the going rate for the job or more, with at least one day off per week and improved working conditions. Any staff who turn up just when they want to and take unauthorised leave need sacking immediately IMHO as they would be in the west AND a lot of Asia too. Maybe some good will come of a bad bad thing in that rising unemployment may make Thai staff more responsible in their jobs as long as it does not make Employers bad in their role by under paying and exploiting the situation, I hate folk who do that to other people, treating them as a resource rather than living breathing human beings. Sorry for rant but I hate extreme capitalism and greed (and extreme Socialism and over the top control) which has led to the situation we now all find ourselves in, and mostly being very sadly suffered by those who were innocent of the greed and incompetence that has caused it. What the World really needs now is more caring and thoughtfulness about it's citizens, and controls and restrictions on those who do not care about anyone other than themselves. Until we do we will continue to have these unnecessary problems causing so much suffering in this blatantly sick selfish World we now live in where Money is now the God.

You are 100% Correct and Bang on the Money (Excuse the Pun) ..You have made the most sense so far ..All this talk about "Its OK it will all be over in 2yrs time" Is naive to say the least ..I really don,t think a lot of people understand the Gravity of the Situation "We Are All In" ..Time and again i have seen on ThaiVisa People turn on one another over all the usual issues ..From using it as a Platform to Highlight ones Personal Advantageous Posistion in life to convieniantly Blaming another Member of society further down the ladder ..I like a lot of other people have always tried to stay clear from Debt and have had very little choice in the Decisions my Government/s have made..We need to understand if we like it or not we are all in this together ..Regardless of Class Race or Political Divide ..This is not a recession happening this is possibly a full blown Depression..The Banks here in the UK & most other Western Countries are making exactly the same Mistakes that the Japanese Banks made in the Asia Crisis ..That was a 18 year Quagmire not a 2 year Oh it will all be over by Xmas affair ...Tough Times ahead folks Pull together or fall apart its our choice ....Peace

[Zombienation]

As an englishman, one of the concerns is the Pound at 55 baht...it was 76 to the Pound when I first came here! That was only 3 years ago. Things are a lot more expensive for UK tourists now and Thailand is a popular destination. I see the Dollar has recovered somewhat, but European folks must be feeling it.

[parallaxtech]

Any of you who have big money in Thai banks should consult with a financial adviser. I talked with many money types, some with 100MTHB accounts, and they are doing the following: changing their accounts into US$ accounts or changing their baht into dollars and storing them in a safety deposit box. The THB has lost twenty percent of it's value against the US$ in the last few months and will continue to lose into 2009 -- some predict 40THB/$ before the new year and possibly 50-80THB/$ in 2009. If it reaches that level you can deposit your $ and make a nice profit.

Another factor to consider is the US is Thailand's largest customer and, guess what, the US has stopped importing most Thai goods.

It will be a very bad twelve months plus for the Thais, but it doesn't have to be a financial disaster for us!

[chrislarsson]

Any of you who have big money in Thai banks should consult with a financial adviser. I talked with many money types, some with 100MTHB accounts, and they are doing the following: changing their accounts into US$ accounts or changing their baht into dollars and storing them in a safety deposit box. The THB has lost twenty percent of it's value against the US$ in the last few months and will continue to lose into 2009 -- some predict 40THB/$ before the new year and possibly 50-80THB/$ in 2009. If it reaches that level you can deposit your $ and make a nice profit.

Another factor to consider is the US is Thailand's largest customer and, guess what, the US has stopped importing most Thai goods.

It will be a very bad twelve months plus for the Thais, but it doesn't have to be a financial disaster for us!

The US dollar has strengthened compared to all currencies in the last few months. You forget to mention that the baht has strengthened to many other currencies such as the Euro and Australian dollar.

I think this US dollar appreciation is temporary. With all the money the US is printing now I would expect a much weaker dollar in a years time.

That the US has stopped importing Thai goods sounds strange.

[Hairy]

Any of you who have big money in Thai banks should consult with a financial adviser. I talked with many money types, some with 100MTHB accounts, and they are doing the following: changing their accounts into US$ accounts or changing their baht into dollars and storing them in a safety deposit box.

I would suggest caution with these two strategies because of the recent example of Argentina. USD-denominated accounts were frozen and converted to Argentine currency before being paid out -- at the old fixed rate of exchange prior to the devaluation, which, as I recall, cut the value by about half.

Safe deposit boxes have been treated similarly in many countries undergoing economic crises, with the boxes required to be opened in the presence of government officials for the purpose of forcibly exchanging or seizing property. This even happened in the U.S. during the Great Depression, with the target being gold and silver coins:

... I hereby proclaim that such gold and silver holdings are prohibited, and that all such coin, bullion or other possessions of gold and silver be tendered within fourteen days to agents of the Government of the United States for compensation at the official price, in the legal tender of the Government. All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed, pending action in the due course of the law. All sales or purchases or movements of such gold and silver within the borders of the United States and its territories, and all foreign exchange transactions or movements of such metals across the border are hereby prohibited.

Your possession of these proscribed metals and/or your maintenance of a safe-deposit box to store them is known to the government from bank and insurance records. Therefore, be advised that your vault box must remain sealed, and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the Internal Revenue Service.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Executive Order of April 5, 1933

I would not expect a similar seizure of gold assets today, at least in the U.S., because the USD is no longer linked at a fixed exchange rate to gold. I would not be at all surprised to see countries (including the U.S.) following the example of Argentina, however. Like Kennedy buying up all the Cuban cigars he could find in Washington the day before declaring the embargo against Castro, the elites would probably be in the know ahead of time, and probably would have most of their funds offshore already in any case.

I'm not a big "money in the mattress" sort of guy, but I also don't recommend the risk profile of leaving funds in "dollar denominated" accounts in third-world banks and hoping for a giant windfall if/when they devalue their currencies.

Then again, look at Iceland. . . .

[Jingthing]

. The THB has lost twenty percent of it's value against the US$ in the last few months

I think that number is overstated but I share you bullishness for the dollar v. the baht. Easily 38 to 40 next year.

[benjamat]

While this is bad news for Thailand it is also bad news for expats, because we all know where the extra money that is required is going to start coming from.. Anyone want to guess the minimum taxation levels for next year?

What also is quite ironic and frankly amusing is that wasn't it last week that the (places tongue in cheek) most excellent and skillful Thai Banking sector was boasting that Thailand would 'not feel the effects of the global economic slowdown', because of their 'extensive experience in this field' based on the last 15 years or so and the Asian crisis of the 90's....

Which is yet another reason why I don't trust, or use Thai banks for anything other than getting money in and out of the country. Idiots!

1.) i don't trust banks in any country more than i have to do...

2.) i am from austria (living here in bangkok since 1992), and i can remember, that, not a long time ago, also the austrians (government and banks), as well as of course the germans have claimed to be only affected marginally of the (then still mostly us-based) crisis...

seems that the europeans were not really better controlled i their business transactions or better than their american counterparts, expecially the banks - and i wonder, what in this respect will come from the asian financial sector in the next weeks and months...

it's gonna be fun! or maybe not..

Not sure where the exploitation is. Foreignors cannot even enter thailand without financial holdings they can show, we do not get anything free from thailand and yet we are treated as if we are scroungers by some.

Plenty of thais in the uk living off the state and getting free health and child care so who is exploiting who ?

Thailand offers me somewhere that I like but I certainly pay for everything as does my thai wife. I respect the country and its people and do not spend my time in idle critiscism but certain aspects of thai life are clear for all to see.

Edited October 31, 2008 by benjamat

[cclub75]

Thailand forigen reserve is just under $37 billion not 100

That is unless they just happened to make some $63 billion in the last 6 months

Oh my god.. after exports and agriculture... here is the latest lunacy of the day.

And I do not refer to Wikipedia.

You want to know the detailed amount of the foreign currency reserves of Thailand ?

Ask the... BANK OF THAILAND

http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Ec...alReserves.aspx

As of october 24

-100,8 billions USD

-plus a net forward position of 8,9 billions USD

Okay khrap ?

[Phaka2]

Zorro nailed it this is not forever.

Me I would rather ride this out here after six years I know I could cut back a lot and still be OK.

Thais surviving nothing personal folks if things get tough I would much rather rely on my wife here then anyone I know. That girl can climb a tree and come back with food

I have had to tighten the belt now for three years, to be honest I still have a good life and plenty of more room to go if I have to.

As for us if we can might be chance to help. Going to be a lot more craftsman around with nothing to do. Got some projects that need o be done. Now might be the time.

I have tried to do that with the housekeepers village when people lose work and need to earn few baht. Pay them the same dailey wage they get from the contractors, buy the material myself. The work is done at the same qaulity for less, but the worker gets the same.

Takes a bit of patience though, I have always told them if their boss calls go work for him, mine will wait till they have time. Took three guys and a month to get the interior of the hosue painted room by room. Cost for labor was around 1,000 baht.

But this is Udon not a tourist area, things there may be very different. My point being if you can help now would be a good time. If you can't, you can't The one thing I normally don't do is give money, for the sake of giving money. But, thats me.

There is nothing we can do for the government but we might able to help a neighbor or two.

Theft being up probably what would you do to feed your children?

Where Issan will feel it will be in two ways. no money come from whatever the family member was doing that let them send it home. Secondly there will be more mouths to feed on the farm.

The rice farmers, corn farmers and rubber farmers are already after the government for money. They will probably ge on pape anyway they usually do. The rubber farmers are talking about pulling out trees. I hope they are talking about trees that are no longer productive. To destroy a rubber planatation because the price will be down for a few years is insane. All to drive the price up in a marke that is shrinking.

How soon people forget it wasn't that long ago that the cost of these items were sky high because oil was high. It will be high agian. I don't like pay cuts either but I have done some awfully low paying jobs in my simple becaue some income is better then no income.

You know we could argue about this and that but the reality is the entire world is in this mess. There will be difficult times ahead for many people. Who was right or wrong or it could have been done better if, really doesn't matter much anymore.

Very much agree with your philosophy. We are all here for positive reasons and the right blend of integration into Thai life along with supporting a culture we enjoy can only help everyone.

[thailand_tom]

You must be a lovely human being, thaibkk, not to give a rats for anyone else but yourself.

Why should we care? It's not like the Thais care about us now do they?

they do care, about farangs money, that's about it, thailand has no idea what is heading their way, i said a long time ago thailand is over priced, too begin with, and that was when i was getting, 40 to 1 usd, when i lived there, if you been on this website for a few months just look at classified ads..over 1300 proproties for sale at prices that are a joke, i am bidding on houses on ebay, in the usa for less then 5,000 usd, and people still want 100's of thousands and millions for houses and property in thailand that foreigners can't own anyway..i had to laugh when i went to buy 2 rai of land a lady was selling in surin, 10 kilmeters from the city in the middle of nowhere, wanted 5 million baht, at the time would have been 125,000 usd, are you kidding me, i could buy an acre which is 2 rai anywhere in the usa at the time for 50,000 or less, now i can buy houses with land for 5,000 or less, good luck.