What Would Civil War Mean?

[Carib]

I would strongly advise all visitors and ex-pats to ensure that you are registered with your embassy at this uncertain time, and to bare in mind that if civil unrest gets out of control, the internet and the mobile phone network may well close down for the duration. (Especially if groups of rioters are using the networks to coordinate their campaign of violence). This will mean that ATM's will not accept your card, and if the banks close, another likely ramification of widespread civil unrest, you won't be able to get cash to manouver with. Make a plan, even if you never need to use it. Far better to be prepared for the worst and afterwards heave a sigh of relief because it didn't happen than get cought with your pants down. Women should be especially careful of becoming isolated in unfamiliar surroundings... you may be at risk.

I registered myself and my family with the British embassy in Bangkok, 5 months ago.

Since this crisis, not a word from them, nor any advice or a hello there, are you still in Thailand.

I dont have any faith in them or whether they will be of any use, if the worst did happen.

What do you expect them to do, call you and ask how you are?

It is not their responsibility that you decided to live in Thailand, it is yours.

[grandpops]

My two cents.

I feel the PAD pose a short term risk to the country. Its only a desperate elite trying to cling to a centuries old system that cannont survive long term in this Internet age. The poor "know too much" and are starting to realise why they are poor and how they can get out of poverty by shaking themselves free of they pernicious system

The real risk is of a Coup and then the red shirt rising. Its this side that could let the blood as violently as Cambodians did.

Think, centuries of surfdom, mothers, sisters, daughters in hock to the high classes and working in brothels, bars, massage parlours to repay "debts" to hi so's. Only hope of a modest living to hunt down a "handsome falang" or worse in other countries.

Sondhi is rabid and vocal and mad and they will have to get rid of him themselves (the elite) anyway and as soon as possible, coup or no coup.

Its your classic peoples (poor ones not PAD turning up in SUV and leaving the baby with nanny) uprising which is dangerous. Think French revolution and Pol Pot and the horrific bloodletting after years of oppression or perceived oppression that will be nasty.

Anybody in the wrong place at the wrong time could easily end up dead for no other reason than a release of anger or a petulant random killing by a royalist with a grudge. The Khmer rouge didn't distinguish between good journalist etc. If you were not from a dirt poor background you were dead.

I hate the PAD, but they will fall apart soon as all desperate fascist partys do. Their backers are from a generation whose time is past and the new generations will not tolerate their Lo-So status in life anylonger.

Edited November 27, 2008 by grandpops

[chiang mai]

In an absolute worst moment scenario, one where you forecast that a hoard of grim reapers are hammering at your door and calling your name, remember that these are Thai internal problems and are not farang related. There

[Maizefarmer]

PAD have said they will not move voluntarily from the airport. If they do indeed hold their breath it will present the army with a various serious dilema.

Should the army be used to forceably move PAD from the airport - my guess is it will make '76 and '92 both look like tea parties. Poachinda knows that, which is why he is so desperate to avoid the confrontation.

What does it mean for ex-pats? Good question: leaders on both sides I think will be desperate to convey the message that it is a Thai issue and that ex-pats are not the target.

Can ex-pats rely on that? My personal opinion is that so long as the cause does not become one of ultra-nationalism, ex-pats should by and large be safe if they keep a low profile.

[girlx]

nobody has really addressed these questions:

Would all transportation be shut down? Food and water supplies blocked? Power and communications systems shut down? Would foreigners be trapped here or would they all be gathered up and shipped out? How would law and order be kept?

[endure]

nobody has really addressed these questions:

Would all transportation be shut down? Food and water supplies blocked? Power and communications systems shut down? Would foreigners be trapped here or would they all be gathered up and shipped out? How would law and order be kept?

Probably because nobody knows. Civil war doesn't follow some neat formulaic procedure.

[sunray69]

I also think we would be defended

Will you take that risk?? Seems to me like a gamble for your life...

[merck]

I don't really think that anything too major will happen, but if it does, Thais can be quite rational in the long run, but when they get angry they often snap.

I'm afraid that if this does escalate and enough Thais fly off the handle after all these years of repressing ther feelings it could turn into one ugly mess.

Looks like you covered all your bases there in that prediction

[sibeymai]

If civil war does come to Thailand it seems most likely to be fought in Bangkok and immediate surrounds. Given that Isaan is red it's unlikely that the Bangkok yellows will march up the highway to karat and beyond to pick a fight. Probably the best place to be in case of civil war will be upcountry.

If anarchy erupts foreigners will need to keep their heads down, but I don't see them being especially targeted. They're not really the cause of the problemm but on the other hand, they're often blamed for things.

I'd say no civil war, but some bombings and skirmishes. It will take some time for civil war to build a momentum. Don't think the armed forces will hang back long enough to see that momentum gather.

Also, if civil war did look likely there is still one very powerful uniting voice in the kingdom who can appeal for calm and reason with a reasonable chance of gaining it.

Ultimately, aren't Thais a bit too lethargic (for want of a better word) to engage in civil war ? Wouldn't be much sanook value.

Guess it depends on how right the BBC was when they said the uncurrent of the whole political conflict is the uneducated Isaan folk against the educated Bangkok people. Talk about bite the hand that feeds you.

No television and no internet is a real possibility. Electricity and water will probebly continue unless a real civil war develops which could only happen if the military loose control. Transport should continue but with lots of checkpoints and restrictions on movement to keep Bangkok and Isaan people separated. Tourism will disappear whether the military take control or not as there will likely be escalating violence (mob clashes, bombings) all the way to the next elections.

If you could choose to go somewhere else for a few months it's a good idea.

[Carib]

Is this a game: Who can paint the most black scenario??

Come on, don't start getting yourself all worked up for something what is not there, if it will be there it will be all different than you can think of now.

Talking each other into fear is not a very healthy nor wise thing to do.

[GuestHouse]

Talking each other into fear is not a very healthy nor wise thing to do.

Neither is sticking your head in the sand.

These are not isolated incidents, there is a clear picture of organized violence and that is something that it is 'healthy' to keep an eye on.

[mahtin]

"Pro and anti-government demonstrators in the capital have begun shooting at each other. "

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/thai/articles/20081126.aspx

Creative journalism?

[arco27]

"Pro and anti-government demonstrators in the capital have begun shooting at each other. "

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/thai/articles/20081126.aspx

Creative journalism?

Link is 2 days old, all relax, nothing much will happen, if things get out of and too much the army WILL step in and there will be a military goverment for a little while before it all starts again. Meantime I go fishing in Rawai till things calm down.

[jts-khorat]

I would strongly advise all visitors and ex-pats to ensure that you are registered with your embassy at this uncertain time, and to bare in mind that if civil unrest gets out of control, the internet and the mobile phone network may well close down for the duration. (Especially if groups of rioters are using the networks to coordinate their campaign of violence). This will mean that ATM's will not accept your card, and if the banks close, another likely ramification of widespread civil unrest, you won't be able to get cash to manouver with. Make a plan, even if you never need to use it. Far better to be prepared for the worst and afterwards heave a sigh of relief because it didn't happen than get cought with your pants down. Women should be especially careful of becoming isolated in unfamiliar surroundings... you may be at risk.

I registered myself and my family with the British embassy in Bangkok, 5 months ago.

Since this crisis, not a word from them, nor any advice or a hello there, are you still in Thailand.

I dont have any faith in them or whether they will be of any use, if the worst did happen.

What do you expect them to do, call you and ask how you are?

It is not their responsibility that you decided to live in Thailand, it is yours.

... it is the age of mass emails, so contacting everybody on the list with a short advisory would be an act of 15 minutes for a (very) minor embassy minion.

[thaihome]

My two cents.

I feel the PAD pose a short term risk to the country. Its only a desperate elite trying to cling to a centuries old system that cannont survive long term in this Internet age. The poor "know too much" and are starting to realise why they are poor and how they can get out of poverty by shaking themselves free of they pernicious system

The real risk is of a Coup and then the red shirt rising. Its this side that could let the blood as violently as Cambodians did.

Think, centuries of surfdom, mothers, sisters, daughters in hock to the high classes and working in brothels, bars, massage parlours to repay "debts" to hi so's. Only hope of a modest living to hunt down a "handsome falang" or worse in other countries.

Sondhi is rabid and vocal and mad and they will have to get rid of him themselves (the elite) anyway and as soon as possible, coup or no coup.

Its your classic peoples (poor ones not PAD turning up in SUV and leaving the baby with nanny) uprising which is dangerous. Think French revolution and Pol Pot and the horrific bloodletting after years of oppression or perceived oppression that will be nasty.

Anybody in the wrong place at the wrong time could easily end up dead for no other reason than a release of anger or a petulant random killing by a royalist with a grudge. The Khmer rouge didn't distinguish between good journalist etc. If you were not from a dirt poor background you were dead.

I hate the PAD, but they will fall apart soon as all desperate fascist partys do. Their backers are from a generation whose time is past and the new generations will not tolerate their Lo-So status in life anylonger.

I think you depend on the BBC and the Guardian for your opinions too much. To simplify this into a rich vs. poor conflict is down right ridiculous. Have you ever spoken to PAD supporter to find out why they are there?

TH

[digitele]

My two cents.

I feel the PAD pose a short term risk to the country. Its only a desperate elite trying to cling to a centuries old system that cannont survive long term in this Internet age. The poor "know too much" and are starting to realise why they are poor and how they can get out of poverty by shaking themselves free of they pernicious system

The real risk is of a Coup and then the red shirt rising. Its this side that could let the blood as violently as Cambodians did.

Think, centuries of surfdom, mothers, sisters, daughters in hock to the high classes and working in brothels, bars, massage parlours to repay "debts" to hi so's. Only hope of a modest living to hunt down a "handsome falang" or worse in other countries.

Sondhi is rabid and vocal and mad and they will have to get rid of him themselves (the elite) anyway and as soon as possible, coup or no coup.

Its your classic peoples (poor ones not PAD turning up in SUV and leaving the baby with nanny) uprising which is dangerous. Think French revolution and Pol Pot and the horrific bloodletting after years of oppression or perceived oppression that will be nasty.

Anybody in the wrong place at the wrong time could easily end up dead for no other reason than a release of anger or a petulant random killing by a royalist with a grudge. The Khmer rouge didn't distinguish between good journalist etc. If you were not from a dirt poor background you were dead.

I hate the PAD, but they will fall apart soon as all desperate fascist partys do. Their backers are from a generation whose time is past and the new generations will not tolerate their Lo-So status in life anylonger.

I totally agree. I live on a peaceful, non-tourist island and the locals are ALL starting to wear Yellow.....

Two brainwashed sides are going to escalate and collide, big time, NO DOUBT.

[dave9988]

When the red shirts start protesting, there is not going to be as much talk of "right to protest" or "civilian causalities". Think more along the lines of "brutal crackdown" and "blood filled streets".

[gerrythepoet]

The farangs will be stronger together if we get vigilante groups roaming tha sois.

I am of the opinion a low profile is required especially in girlie bars, do not set yoursleves up as a target by fuelled envious drunks

[thaimate]

I would strongly advise all visitors and ex-pats to ensure that you are registered with your embassy at this uncertain time, and to bare in mind that if civil unrest gets out of control, the internet and the mobile phone network may well close down for the duration. (Especially if groups of rioters are using the networks to coordinate their campaign of violence). This will mean that ATM's will not accept your card, and if the banks close, another likely ramification of widespread civil unrest, you won't be able to get cash to manouver with. Make a plan, even if you never need to use it. Far better to be prepared for the worst and afterwards heave a sigh of relief because it didn't happen than get cought with your pants down. Women should be especially careful of becoming isolated in unfamiliar surroundings... you may be at risk.

I registered myself and my family with the British embassy in Bangkok, 5 months ago.

Since this crisis, not a word from them, nor any advice or a hello there, are you still in Thailand.

I dont have any faith in them or whether they will be of any use, if the worst did happen.

would the Embassy be of any use? what a stupid thing to say ,of course they would ,just as much as my chocolate spoon and fireguard.

[cmsally]

5) TV becomes a 'free for all' with no forum rules

Sure about that one?

Soundman, don't be such a party pooper!

[NanLaew]

happy to bet against civil war. maybe civil skirmish.

Here we go, civil 'skirmish'.

<deleted> is that?

I googled and wiki'd it as well as looking up the various online dictionaries and guess what?

Same school of thought that breeds this contention that Thailand requires Thai-style democracy?

Methinks that Thai-style civil war will be as bloody as anyone elses but maybe moreso due to the repressed thoughts so thoughtfully pointed out by UG

[cmsally]

I very much feel that this problem has been brewing for a long time and has been allowed to grow into an amorphous unpredictable monster. If it wasn't for some egos and their accompanying personas, then this problem could have been solved years ago. This has now filtered down to levels of society who are easily brainwashed, are being used as pawns and have frustrations that need to be vented one way or another.

In the north and north-east you do have resentments against Bangkok which have now been transcribed into something political. Bangkok has adopted the south as its back up due to political affiliations. If you are talking about South invading the North or vice versa then that is not likely as neither has territorial ambitions, but the northern areas are fed up with the attitudes of BKK dominance and their expected submission.

Don't think that the North and North East are oblivious to the fact that their politicians are not whiter than white. They are not that stupid. But when they have to make the choice between a home grown politician (whatever their record/behaviour etc.) and being expected to kowtow to the Bangkok elite they are going to choose the former. The North certainly is a pretty passive place but there is the feeling that they have been pushed far enough.

Quite frankly if the army stages a coup and the PAD does anything as stupid as claim victory, then there will be trouble.

If the situation is allowed to drag on I suppose the country just goes bankrupt.

[girlx]

It seems to me as well that the options right now are: 1) a peaceful withdrawal by the PAD (very unlikely), 2) a military coup, or 3) anarchy and bloodshed (civil war).

The thing is, the PAD is not just about removing the puppet PM, they want to revamp the whole system of government in Thailand. Another coup is not going to get anyone anywhere in the long term. It would just put off the inevitable, and we would probably find ourselves in the same position again down the road. The problem would still be there. I don't think the PAD will go down without a fight, and now people in both the North and South are getting riled up as well, both for and against them. I think this is a very important time in Thailand's history. It is unfortunate that the PAD had to take such drastic steps as holding Thailand hostage, but thinking about it, how else could they have brought to light the seriousness of their aims? Another coup won't lead to an overhaul of the election process and government. At this point, it seems to me that only a standoff is an option, most likely violent.

It doesn't seem like the PAD have much of a plan though- who do they want to be PM? And the current government is seeming pretty damned ineffectual too, by standing by and waving their hands. A lack of cohesion on both sides can only be bad. As someone above said, civil wars are organized, with two definite sides with definite goals. What I feel is coming is just disorganized anarchy, which is very disturbing.

[Lost in LOS]

I have red and yellow t-shirts to hedge my bets

thais don't like to blame themselves when stuff goes wrong [probably westerners too] and will very likely take this out on he westerners as our fault the are in this mess

i think we are OK but have a backup plan, safe than sorry. Minimal problems and I lay low, stay in house, have girlfriend do shopping, have food and water and candles in case. Kind of like earthquake preparedness in California. all turns to crap, gas in car full and Cambodia here i come, maid watches house

other than that i am living my life as before

[jubby]

I suppose its good to have a back up plan . I've been to town today and drew out some cash, I think I'll fill the car up later.

OK, there's almost certainly going to be bloodshed when someone makes a move. But looking around the village up here in the North and also around our small town or city. It just looks like a normal sunny day. Everyone going about there business as normal , usual bullshit smile from the Guy who always gives me bullshit smiles, people hurrying to get the Rice harvest in. Its as though they don't really care, seen it all before. Doesn't affect us anyway sort of thing. No ones glued to Thaivisa or TV . Airport !? How many of these people have any interest in Airports. The tensions just not there. How many times have you heard from someone 'Bangkoks not Thailand'

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

I'm going to install a peephole in the door so I can check on who's knocking. Have handy a red and a yellow t-shirt and dress accordingly. Also have one of each color for the wife and the cat.

[LoveDaBlues]

PAD have said they will not move voluntarily from the airport. If they do indeed hold their breath it will present the army with a various serious dilema.

Should the army be used to forceably move PAD from the airport - my guess is it will make '76 and '92 both look like tea parties. Poachinda knows that, which is why he is so desperate to avoid the confrontation.

What does it mean for ex-pats? Good question: leaders on both sides I think will be desperate to convey the message that it is a Thai issue and that ex-pats are not the target.

Can ex-pats rely on that? My personal opinion is that so long as the cause does not become one of ultra-nationalism, ex-pats should by and large be safe if they keep a low profile.

Why would the army move against PAD when they support PAD? The police, yes, but not the army.

[girlx]

Why would the army move against PAD when they support PAD? The police, yes, but not the army.

So what does it mean that they just replaced the police chief? I am guessing the new one is more likely to strike against the PAD?

[Tafia]

BBC News 24 - PAD say if they are stormed they will fight to the death ??????????????????

[Geekfreaklover]

BBC News 24 - PAD say if they are stormed they will fight to the death ??????????????????

Sounds like a solid plan.

Did they all say that in unison?

Crikey, this mob are getting on my wick.