Dollar Going To ######, What Should I Do?

[PeaceBlondie]

No, real estate will not always be solid. Condos in Texas went to half their value in a year or two, and didn't recover within ten years. Many of us lost our life's savings, or however much of it was in real estate. Right now in various regions of the USA, there are incredible numbers of overvalued homes.

Gold? In the short term, purely speculative.

Edited December 20, 2004 by PeaceBlondie

[mbkudu]

It depends on 'where' the real estate is. If gold, Euros or Pound sterling aren't good enough, how about the roulette at the MGM Grand?

Edited December 20, 2004 by mbkudu

[britmaveric]

Think this is a "Chicken Little" state of mind. Things aren't perfect, but a better question one might ask: When are things ever perfect?

[Rinrada]

Latest from the Times Business forcast...

December 20, 2004

Strong growth tipped for UK stocks

By Gary Duncan, Economics Editor

INVESTORS in UK company shares can expect to grow richer next year, according to latest forecasts from stockbroker analysts.

However, it is reckoned that gains made by the FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares will be eclipsed by stronger performances by some rival markets.

The consensus of some 100 analysts polled by Reuters suggests that the FTSE 100 will grow in value by 5.7 per cent in the next 12 months. When dividend income is taken into account, the returns will be in the region of 8 per cent well above the rate of inflation and the returns from putting money on bank deposit.

The consensus view hides a wide disparity of opinion. ING believes that the FTSE 100 will march up to 5,600, which compares with a close last Friday of 4,697. However, this prediction of a 19 per cent rise contrasts with the view from Fortis Bank that the index will fall 15 per cent to below 4,000.

Charles de Boissezon, of Deutsche Bank, believes the FTSE is “a solid play for 2005”, with robust UK growth, at least in the first six months of the new year.

Ian Smith, of Lehman Brothers, is optimistic over both global prospects and those for the UK. In London, he thinks the best performers will be mature companies that throw off large amounts of cash.

Kevin Gardiner, head of global equity strategy at HSBC, said: “What’s not priced in is a near-record gap between corporate profitability and the cost of capital. The returns that companies are making are far in excess of the cost of capital.”

Mr Gardiner added that, with company borrowings having fallen sharply, the improved profits were more solidly founded than during previous market booms.

The research suggest that equity markets are poised for another 12 months of steady if modest advances, despite a slowdown in earnings and world economic growth, and fears over oil prices, the dollar and the Middle East.

Analysts also believe that shares will shake off the chance that UK and US interest rates may rise. But the majority view is that UK and US shares will trail in the wake of stronger gains from European and Asian markets. The consensus forecast is that Japanese shares, for example, will jump by nearly one fifth.

Most analysts agree that American shares are set to turn in a weaker performance next year. The consensus is for the S&P 500 index of America’s biggest groups to rise by only 3.7 per cent, after a gain this year set to top 8 per cent. The view, though, is for European shares to outstrip the UK’s, despite recent weak growth, with the average forecaster pencilling in a 7.8 per cent rise in France’s CAC40 and Germany’s DAX. Globally, the bulls are also rushing for Japan, with the consensus looking for the Nikkei 225 index to add as much as 19 per cent next year.

Analysis undertaken by The Times suggests that forecasters’ accuracy is improving. In 2001 the FTSE 100 ended the year 28 per cent below the figure forecast.In 2003, however, the FTSE 100 ended just 0.5 per cent shy of the view expounded a year earlier.

If the market trades sideways for the rest of this year, the consensus of forecasts made this time last year will be similarly accurate.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...1410025,00.html

and on ExCHANGE rates..

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http://www.irishabroad.com/Resources/ExRates.htm

Monday, December 20, 2004

1 British Pound = 1.94500 US Dollar

1 British Pound = 76.16425 Thai Baht

1 British Pound = 109.931 Philippine Peso

1 Euro = 1.33340 US Dollar

1 Euro = 52.21461 Thai Baht

1 Euro = 75.36377 Philippine Peso

A couple or more years ago (bad old days) when there was @ Bt 42=£ and hedged/fixed at Bt 25 to the greenback (for years) I was getting Phil.peso @45-46 =£ so considering the present xchange rate variations the Thai Bt.is doing

rather well against the big guys.

With the way the $us is behaving I would have expected to find it (bt) knocking at around Bt 95 =£... so it would appear at the moment to be holding up ( thaied up) quite well.

just wonder just how frayed the rope might be

[britmaveric]

Markets are pure speculative in nature! Bizzare really - normally the fear of smth happening is as good as it happening.

[Khun Jean]

Yangpuss,

You are panicking. You said it will be 15 years.

You will blame yourself when you buy other currencies when the dollar is very low and at the time you need them you maybe have to buy them back expensive. It can be a great loss.

Currencies go in cycles. Up and down. They always did and always shall.

Just do some calculations what will happen when the dollar rises in the next years and one where it falls. Calculate what interest you get in dollars and the other currencies. Make a graph of it.

Don't forget the costs of trading it is a big part.

If you have done all those calculatiosn you might be surprised.

Trading in curencies is normally done with millions and billions at one time.0.01 cent can be a lot for those numbers. I don't know your amount of money but i suspect that you need a very big fluctuation to profit from trading currencies.

Be 100% no 1000% sure of what you are doing. If not then just stick

with them.

What about saving some "new" money in another currency instead of breaking your savings that will cost you a big fine. In 15 years those saving can be a large amont. OR try some investing in stocks, bonds if you like a higher return although against a risk of course.

[Yangpuss]

All this talk of chaos, planetary downfall, pestilence and pillage makes me wonder why any of you would consider a currency. Isn't gold the best bet in times like these? If you're on a rickety, rotting vessal in high seas with a bunch of starving refugees aboard, you'll want a piece of gold in your pouch, not worthless paper. Gold and real estate will always be solid.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mbkudu, you've unintentionally hit upon the one reason I've always been skeptical of gold in times like these... you can't eat it. It's pretty, sparkly stuff and of absolutely no use to desperate people. Gold is only useful if people already have the basic needs of life. Now admittedly, things aren't that bad yet...but ultimately, when the world descends into madness with all the money concentrated in the hands of the Rockefellers and Gateses and Bushes...gold becomes useless to most people.

[Yangpuss]

Yangpuss,

You are panicking. You said it will be 15 years.

You will blame yourself when you buy other currencies when the dollar is very low and at the time you need them you maybe have to buy them back expensive. It can be a great loss.

Currencies go in cycles. Up and down. They always did and always shall.

Just do some calculations what will happen when the dollar rises in the next years and one where it falls. Calculate what interest you get in dollars and the other currencies. Make a graph of it.

Don't forget the costs of trading it is a big part.

If you have done all those calculatiosn you might be surprised.

Trading in curencies is normally done with millions and billions at one time.0.01 cent can be a lot for those numbers. I don't know your amount of money but i suspect that you need a very big fluctuation to profit from trading currencies.

Be 100% no 1000% sure of what you are doing. If not then just stick

with them.

What about saving some "new" money in another currency instead of breaking your savings that will cost you a big fine. In 15 years those saving can be a large amont. OR try some investing in stocks, bonds if you like a higher return although against a risk of course.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks Khun Jean. Very thought provoking advice. The question is, what is there about the US economy that makes it possible for the dollar to go back up substantially again? Is there anything but debt on the horizon?

About taking penalties on my CDs...I knew when I opened them that I would eventually take a penalty on them, because they're 10 year CDs at a not very good interest rate and I calculated that, even with the penalty, they would earn me more than keeping my money in a money market account. I knew that eventually when rates rose enough, it would be worthwhile to take the penalty and reinvest in a much higher rate CD. And the way people are talking, it sounds like the silver lining might be that as the US economy goes to h*ll, interest rates will rise very high, and hopefully that means savings rates too, though I'm sure the banks will try to only raise the lending rates, not the savings rates, and Bush will help them do that, since the Bushes have always been gofers for the Rockefellers, and the Rockies run most of the big banks, if I'm not mistaken.

As for saving "new currency," I'm afraid there isn't any coming in. I'm strictly living off savings and interest.

[haha]

my 2 cents....

the usa is one of the most stable countries in the world.

how can I say this, you ask?

1) the usa has been blessed with many resources, more than most other countries in the world.

2) the usa is has only 2 neighbors. namely canada and mexico.

what does this all mean?

1) america can survive on it's own resources. ..not many other countries can do that.

2) america doesn't have to worry as much about somebody invading them. ..unlike other countries.

now, which currency would you feel more safe with? ..the euro where countries have a history of fighting one another, or the dollar where 2 oceans are natural barriers to foreign invasions?

would you rather have your currency in a country that can't survive on food supplied by it's own farms, or a country that can supply the whole world with food if it wanted to?

in a case of emergency like a war, I will put my bet on america any day.

yes, america is having some tough times right now. but you know what? the next harvest is just a year away. another paycheck is just a year away.

worse comes to worse, the usa could do what many other small countries have done in the past, screw the foreigner, and not pay them back.

..not that it would, but let's face it, the debt can be taken care of - in one way or another.

believe.

[aughie]

As for saving "new currency," I'm afraid there isn't any coming in. I'm strictly living off savings and interest.

If you're living off your interest and savings do you want to get into currency speculation? Yanq, I don't know your finances and I don't want to know. If you are troubled because things have gotten tight for you then I understand your concern. If you are concerned because you have missed an oportunity to make a killing off the dollar drop then see it as that, missed. If you are retired I would think you want something safe and not something which may wipe you out or give you a heart attack from worrying daily about your money. If you feel the need to be in the game then gamble only a small portion of your money.

You guys have gotten into worse case scenario stuff. Yanq do you wish to invest on a worse case scenario? If so, You can't eat gold. Gold has no value if people have nothing to trade for it or if people do not wish to try and eat it either. So buy land you can grow food on. Land that has its own water source. And have a large family so you can protect your land, your food and your lives!

Yanq posted: I think a lot of you have it wrong about the EU and all. It's all about globalization and world government. It's not about each country looking out for the interests of its people, it's about the elite of all countries planning on hoarding all the world's wealth for themselves and leaving crumbs for everybody else, and their countrymen be damned. This is the trend engineered by the elite, and it's accelerating, and all these federations of Asian states or European states or whatever, and global trade agreements, and global regulatory bodies like the WTO and Codex and all the rest, are all part of it.

Yanq, Thank you for bringing us back from the brink of atomic war and all the other stuff people started off on.

People are talking about conflicts and wars between all the major player nations. I don't see it. Why? Because corporations require a stable enviornment to conduct business. They plan future allocation of resources for growth and product development according to their 5 year, 10 year, and 25 year plans. Business requires stability. Corporations are now multinational (MNCs). That is the key. They cannot afford conflicts because their interests, investments and resources reach everywhere worldwide.

Now I see China joining into the MNC arena. They have purchased the laptop division of IBM. They will buy Maytag applianances next. They own RCA already. They contract for minerals and timber in Canada. When China has sufficient resources and interests worldwide they too will avoid war. The more interdependent we are for resources and labor and trade in general the less likely we will go to war because it will hurt the pocketbook of everyone.

So globaliztion may be a peaceful path. Governments will be relegated to warehousing the people and maintaining domestic stability. The average person can still profit from the MNC scenario by purchasing a shared interst in the MNCs, ie, stocks and bonds. If people can invest and share in the profits they will continue to support the system. The big players know they must leave enough room in the game for the average person to participate and profit or they will not play the game. They will withdraw their money and they will withdraw their belief in the system..

This is one way of looking at the world today. It's one theory and people being people they scew up theories and philosophies while pursuing their own intersts.

my two cents which ain't worth much.

-a

-------------------------------------------

If you can keep your head when all about you ...

Edited December 21, 2004 by aughie

[LaoPo]

my 2 cents....

the usa is one of the most stable countries in the world.

how can I say this, you ask?

1) the usa has been blessed with many resources, more than most other countries in the world.

2) the usa is has only 2 neighbors.  namely canada and mexico.

what does this all mean?

1) america can survive on it's own resources.  ..not many other countries can do that.

2) america doesn't have to worry as much about somebody invading them.  ..unlike other countries.

now, which currency would you feel more safe with?  ..the euro where countries have a history of fighting one another, or the dollar where 2 oceans are natural barriers to foreign invasions?

would you rather have your currency in a country that can't survive on food supplied by it's own farms, or a country that can supply the whole world with food if it wanted to?

in a case of emergency like a war, I will put my bet on america any day.

yes, america is having some tough times right now.  but you know what?  the next harvest is just a year away.  another paycheck is just a year away.

worse comes to worse, the usa could do what many other small countries have done in the past, screw the foreigner, and not pay them back. 

..not that it would, but let's face it,  the debt can be taken care of - in one way or another.

believe.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Keep on dreaming, haha, keep on dreaming..the 'Old' American Dream.

The world has changed..don't you realize that?....America can survive...without Oil?

'The debt can be taken care of'..sure......by scr.wing the foreigner?

Of course, the US did it many times before, but you know what? 'the foreigners' are learning quickly!

Dream on.

[mbkudu]

  <---- Anybody have any idea why this would be on the back of a $1 US bill?  What has the USA to do with Pyramids and the All Seeing Eye?

Hmmm.... wonder who is in 'control'? Keep your dollars 

Ravisher, Tripxcore here or maybe David Ike could fill you in on the 'Illuminati',

but you probably know all about that already, right?

Who says the markets fluctuate on their own, haa! That's a good one!

[aughie]

Forgot to add China controls its own port at Long Beach California and it shares authority over the Panama Canal.

[Yangpuss]

my 2 cents....

the usa is one of the most stable countries in the world.

how can I say this, you ask?

1) the usa has been blessed with many resources, more than most other countries in the world.

2) the usa is has only 2 neighbors.  namely canada and mexico.

what does this all mean?

1) america can survive on it's own resources.  ..not many other countries can do that.

2) america doesn't have to worry as much about somebody invading them.  ..unlike other countries.

now, which currency would you feel more safe with?  ..the euro where countries have a history of fighting one another, or the dollar where 2 oceans are natural barriers to foreign invasions?

would you rather have your currency in a country that can't survive on food supplied by it's own farms, or a country that can supply the whole world with food if it wanted to?

in a case of emergency like a war, I will put my bet on america any day.

yes, america is having some tough times right now.  but you know what?  the next harvest is just a year away.  another paycheck is just a year away.

worse comes to worse, the usa could do what many other small countries have done in the past, screw the foreigner, and not pay them back. 

..not that it would, but let's face it,  the debt can be taken care of - in one way or another.

believe.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Keep on dreaming, haha, keep on dreaming..the 'Old' American Dream.

The world has changed..don't you realize that?....America can survive...without Oil?

'The debt can be taken care of'..sure......by scr.wing the foreigner?

Of course, the US did it many times before, but you know what? 'the foreigners' are learning quickly!

Dream on.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think the operative idea here is that the debt gets taken care of, not by screwing the foreigner, but by screwing the average American. And all signs point to that as the way the debt will be taken care of. That's the reason they made the debt in the first place, if you understand the philosophy of "starve the beast" (look it up on google), which is the philosophy of the moneymen who pull Bush's strings.

The whole idea that Bush has, that he will get the economy going again by letting the dollar fall, thereby cheapening US exports, overlooks a few things. What does the US make anymore that anyone wants? GMO crops that the world rejects? Clothing and electronics mostly come from the far east and the third world now. While for sure there are some things the US makes that people want, I think a very large portion of it is Hollywood and entertainment and "intellectual property". And with the rising anti-US sentiment in the rest of the world, one wonders whether people will simply reject US goods, even Hollywood, at least more so than they have in the past.

With the US spending so much of its money on the military and so-called anti terrorism, and not on infrastructure and the needs of its people, the country faces the prospect of being a very well-protected place deteriorating from within.

So...I'm still thinking about what to do with me money. As for me personal situation, I was confidently looking forward to semi and then full retirement, having made the calculations that indicated I could do so comfortably with the money I had. But that was when the Dollar was at 45 baht. If it goes to 25 baht, that changes things a lot.

[Yangpuss]

  Gold has no value if people have nothing to trade for it or if people do not wish to try and eat it either.  So buy land you can grow food on.  Land that has its own water source.  And have a large family so you can protect your land,  your food and your lives!

Um...that's actually something I really want to do! Grow me own food, and stuff like that. But as I understand it, it's very difficult around here to find land with a water source that isn't contaminated by chemicals (another gift of America to the world, okay; I know there are evil European chemical companies too)

All the groundwater is contaminated!

[Yangpuss]

So globaliztion may be a peaceful path.  Governments will be relegated to warehousing the people and maintaining domestic stability. The average person can still profit from the MNC scenario by purchasing a shared interst in the MNCs, ie, stocks and bonds.  If people can invest and share in the profits they will continue to support the system.  The big players know they must leave enough room in the game for the average person to participate and profit or they will not play the game.  They will withdraw their money and they will withdraw their belief in the system..

This is one way of looking at the world today.  It's one theory and people being people they scew up  theories and philosophies while pursuing their own intersts.

my two cents which ain't worth much.

Actually, I think you make some really insightful points there. The danger is that the MNCs will overdo their subjugation of the people as greed and power worm their ugly ways into their psyches.

[thaistick]

  Gold has no value if people have nothing to trade for it or if people do not wish to try and eat it either.  So buy land you can grow food on.  Land that has its own water source.  And have a large family so you can protect your land,  your food and your lives!

Um...that's actually something I really want to do! Grow me own food, and stuff like that. But as I understand it, it's very difficult around here to find land with a water source that isn't contaminated by chemicals (another gift of America to the world, okay; I know there are evil European chemical companies too)

All the groundwater is contaminated!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Invest in this century's blue gold.

Water is one of the most important sectors to be invested in this new century. The world’s population continues to grow and along with it the demand for water.

2.5% of the world's water supply is fresh water, and of this amount, over 90% is permanently frozen.

Water is a growth industry that is essential to our wellbeing. Global demand,mainly from China,is set to grow more than 20% annually. In addition to supply, the need for water treatment systems to provide clean and safe drinking water is one of the biggest and forthcoming issues of this century.Currently the water market is worth $460-$620 billion annually.When it comes to water, there are no alternatives. Water is as much a political resource as it is a natural resource. Between nations it is a question of who controls it.

Since 1970, water supplies have decreased by one-third. By mid-century population growth is expected to stabilize around 9.3 billion, 50 percent higher than where it is today. Based on these projections, nearly 7 billion people will live in water-scarce regions in the world by the year 2050.

2 billion people are affected by water shortages in over forty countries: 1.1 billion do not have sufficient drinking water and 2.4 billion have no provision for sanitation.

Some good water stock picks:

YOWR WTR ARTNA SWWC ION CUNO PNR

[Butterfly]

Dollar still going down, even with monkey currency like the Thai Baht

Speaking of monkey, the Chimp had another stupid thing to say today, that could explain why the dollar is down again

And by the way, I'm still negotiating with myself. People

keep -- I get a suggestion from here, and a suggestion from

there. So-and-so suggests something. And good Americans such

as yourself are trying to get me to negotiate with myself.

Q: Let me just bring up another suggestion. (Laughter.)

THE PRESIDENT: Another chance to negotiate with myself?

http://japan.usembassy.gov/e/p/tp-se0064.html

[haha]

my 2 cents....

the usa is one of the most stable countries in the world.

how can I say this, you ask?

1) the usa has been blessed with many resources, more than most other countries in the world.

2) the usa is has only 2 neighbors.  namely canada and mexico.

what does this all mean?

1) america can survive on it's own resources.  ..not many other countries can do that.

2) america doesn't have to worry as much about somebody invading them.  ..unlike other countries.

now, which currency would you feel more safe with?  ..the euro where countries have a history of fighting one another, or the dollar where 2 oceans are natural barriers to foreign invasions?

would you rather have your currency in a country that can't survive on food supplied by it's own farms, or a country that can supply the whole world with food if it wanted to?

in a case of emergency like a war, I will put my bet on america any day.

yes, america is having some tough times right now.  but you know what?  the next harvest is just a year away.  another paycheck is just a year away.

worse comes to worse, the usa could do what many other small countries have done in the past, screw the foreigner, and not pay them back. 

..not that it would, but let's face it,  the debt can be taken care of - in one way or another.

believe.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Keep on dreaming, haha, keep on dreaming..the 'Old' American Dream.

The world has changed..don't you realize that?....America can survive...without Oil?

'The debt can be taken care of'..sure......by scr.wing the foreigner?

Of course, the US did it many times before, but you know what? 'the foreigners' are learning quickly!

Dream on.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

America can survive...without Oil.

they have all the tools to make alternative energy sources.

if they wanted to, they could have done this a long time ago. ...it's just not the right time to change.

...more so for foreign countries than for the usa. (can you imagine what would happen to the middle east if they did.)

ugh! the oil debate again.

hey! did you know that at one time, the usa could have conquered the world, and if they did, they would have had control of ALL the oil in the world? yes, it's true.

how can I say this, you ask?

simple, when the usa invented the atom bomb, they were the only ones to have it for over 3 years.

do you wonder why they didn't conquer the world? ..simple, because they are not evil. now, if hitler invented the bomb first, what do you think he would have done?

check out these websites...

http://www.ask.ne.jp/~hankaku/english/chronotbl.html

http://www.dannen.com/decision/index.html

last, but not least...

if you want to match the generosity of america with other countries, I think you will find that america has done more to help other countries than MOST other countries in this world. fact of the matter, compared to many other countries, the usa is a saint.

check out the following websites.

http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/20TH.HTM

http://usinfo.state.gov/usa/infousa/facts/democrac/57.htm

...dreaming???

no, I don't think so.

the american dream is real. and growing....

you say the world is changing, and I'm not aware of it??? perhaps you should read the papers more.... it seems to me there are more democracies out there than existed 50 years ago.

believe.

[LivinLOS]

Latest from the Times Business forcast...

December 20, 2004

Strong growth tipped for UK stocks

By Gary Duncan, Economics Editor

INVESTORS in UK company shares can expect to grow richer next year, according to latest forecasts from stockbroker analysts.

However, it is reckoned that gains made by the FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares will be eclipsed by stronger performances by some rival markets.

The consensus of some 100 analysts polled by Reuters suggests that the FTSE 100 will grow in value by 5.7 per cent in the next 12 months. When dividend income is taken into account, the returns will be in the region of 8 per cent well above the rate of inflation and the returns from putting money on bank deposit.

The consensus view hides a wide disparity of opinion. ING believes that the FTSE 100 will march up to 5,600, which compares with a close last Friday of 4,697. However, this prediction of a 19 per cent rise contrasts with the view from Fortis Bank that the index will fall 15 per cent to below 4,000.

Charles de Boissezon, of Deutsche Bank, believes the FTSE is “a solid play for 2005”, with robust UK growth, at least in the first six months of the new year.

Ian Smith, of Lehman Brothers, is optimistic over both global prospects and those for the UK. In London, he thinks the best performers will be mature companies that throw off large amounts of cash.

Kevin Gardiner, head of global equity strategy at HSBC, said: “What’s not priced in is a near-record gap between corporate profitability and the cost of capital. The returns that companies are making are far in excess of the cost of capital.”

Mr Gardiner added that, with company borrowings having fallen sharply, the improved profits were more solidly founded than during previous market booms.

The research suggest that equity markets are poised for another 12 months of steady if modest advances, despite a slowdown in earnings and world economic growth, and fears over oil prices, the dollar and the Middle East.

Analysts also believe that shares will shake off the chance that UK and US interest rates may rise. But the majority view is that UK and US shares will trail in the wake of stronger gains from European and Asian markets. The consensus forecast is that Japanese shares, for example, will jump by nearly one fifth.

Most analysts agree that American shares are set to turn in a weaker performance next year. The consensus is for the S&P 500 index of America’s biggest groups to rise by only 3.7 per cent, after a gain this year set to top 8 per cent. The view, though, is for European shares to outstrip the UK’s, despite recent weak growth, with the average forecaster pencilling in a 7.8 per cent rise in France’s CAC40 and Germany’s DAX. Globally, the bulls are also rushing for Japan, with the consensus looking for the Nikkei 225 index to add as much as 19 per cent next year.

Analysis undertaken by The Times suggests that forecasters’ accuracy is improving. In 2001 the FTSE 100 ended the year 28 per cent below the figure forecast.In 2003, however, the FTSE 100 ended just 0.5 per cent shy of the view expounded a year earlier.

If the market trades sideways for the rest of this year, the consensus of forecasts made this time last year will be similarly accurate.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...1410025,00.html

and on ExCHANGE rates.. 

Powered by 

http://www.irishabroad.com/Resources/ExRates.htm

Monday, December 20, 2004

1 British Pound = 1.94500 US Dollar

1 British Pound = 76.16425 Thai Baht

1 British Pound = 109.931 Philippine Peso

1 Euro            = 1.33340 US Dollar

1 Euro            = 52.21461 Thai Baht

1 Euro            = 75.36377 Philippine Peso

A couple or more years ago (bad old days) when there was @ Bt 42=£ and hedged/fixed at Bt 25 to the greenback (for years) I was getting Phil.peso @45-46 =£ so considering the present xchange rate variations the Thai Bt.is doing

rather well against the big guys.

With the way the $us is behaving I would have expected to find it (bt) knocking at around Bt 95 =£... so it would appear at the moment to be holding up ( thaied up) quite well.

just wonder just how frayed the rope might be

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ha ha ha.. Forgive me for spraying my cornflakes but guesswork figures on next years data as a reassurance ho ho ho..

Lets have a look at how good these boys have been then shall we ??

- The FTSE100 closed last week just 2 points higher from

the Friday before at 4,696. But that weak rise on strong

volume - an average 3 billion shares per day - hasn't

stopped analysts and pundits alike donning their paper

crowns...pulling a cracker or two...and reading out the

jokes inside to the hacks over at Reuters.

- The groan-worthy punchline? "The consensus of some 100

analysts suggests that the FTSE100 will grow in value by

5.7% in the next 12 months," reports the Times today.

"When dividend income is taken into account, the returns

will be in the region off 8% - well above the rate of

inflation and the returns from putting money on bank

deposit."

- Why do we think this funny...excepting the surety of

the journalist's "will"...and the City's certainty that

inflation and thus interest rates won't take off in

2005?

- Well, it's because five years ago, at Christmas 1999,

the City was so excited about how stocks and shares only

ever go up - never down - its consensus forecast put the

FTSE100 at 7,200 by the end of 2000. Things didn't quite

go to plan, however. The blue-chip index closed the 20th

century - as measured by pedants rather than party-goers

- some 15.7% below that level, down at 6,223.

- The following year, 2001, saw the City's call go wrong

to the tune of 40% too bullish. In 2002, the FTSE100

closed almost 47% below forecast. Looking ahead to 2003,

at last, the pundits got close; the consensus forecast

was 4,500. The index actually closed last year at 4,476,

meaning the City overshot by a mere 5%.

- For anyone trying to make money from the investment

markets in 2003...amid falling inflation and 50-year low

interest rates...that 5% mis-call would have proved

significant. But nevermind. Now, as 2004 nears its end,

the City looks to have called the FTSE even closer.

Short of a swift sell-off between now and Friday next

week, last December's prediction of 4,725 looks more

than achievable.

- Just how did the brokers, analysts, and other assorted

shills of the Square Mile come to break their duck?

Simply put, their first four predictions following the

FTSE100's all-time peak - hit on New Year's Eve, 1999 -

all proved so wide of the mark, they had to rein their

bullishness eventually. Otherwise, Joe Lump might have

spotted how inept Britain's 'professional' investors can

be when the sherry and mince pies come out.

- Compare the actual 2000 close with the 2001 forecast,

and the nation's stockbrokers saw 17% gains ahead. As

the FTSE100 tumbled to 5,217 at the end of 2001, they

predicted a 10.6% hike in the following 12 months. Come

the disastrous end to 2002 - when the blue-chip index

collapsed to 3,940 - and the City hoped against hope

that 2003 would deliver a 14% rise. After calling it

wrong so many times, finally - last Christmas - the

consensus called for a mere 5.5% rise in 2004. It got

it, too. Hence today's forecast of just 5.7% growth in

2005. Hey, it worked last time!

Still have any faith at all in thier guesses ??

[LivinLOS]

Realistic article..

 

By Barry Downs           

and Bill Matlack

December 17, 2004

Research Comment-Precious Metals

Former Prime Minister of Great Britain, Benjamin Disraeli, described confidence in money as suspicion asleep. In the world of irredeemable paper money, which has existed for over thirty years, the confidence issue is gradually coming to the forefront, especially with the US dollar, the world's reserve currency. The implications for Americans are profound.

Mr. John Exter (the father-in-law of the senior author of this commentary), retired economist and central banker, warned 34 years ago when Nixon closed the gold window to foreigners that the world had embarked down a treacherous road when it chose an IOU nothing paper money system with floating exchange rates. He envisioned an era of severe dollar debasement and ultimate repudiation of the dollar as a store of value, which would then eventually undermine confidence in the global paper money system. The dollar's problems have taken center stage, and suspicion has awakened.

In a $40 trillion world economy, the global irredeemable paper money system has mushroomed into a foreign exchange market (FX) where the turnover of currencies exceeds $1.5 trillion daily, according to the Bank of International Settlements. In other words, almost $550 trillion in foreign exchange transactions occur annually, compared with $7.5 trillion of annual turnover on the NYSE.

The foreign exchange market, which dwarfs all the worlds' financial markets, is an inter-bank or inter-dealer market based on a network of hundreds of major banks across the globe. Major foreign exchange centers are London (50% of the market), New York, Tokyo, Zurich, Frankfort, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris, and Sydney. Trades above $1 million constitute the institutional side of the market, while those below $1 million represent the retail side.

FX players are typically governments and central banks, commercial and investment banks, hedge funds, businesses, consumers, investors, and speculators. Of all FX transactions, 85% involve the seven major currencies: US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, British pound, euro, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar.

Because the US dollar has been the world's dominant reserve currency for over 60 years, the American mindset seems to be that the reserve currency status is secure and permanent, regardless of the America's irresponsible economic policies and resulting economic imbalances. It seems to have been forgotten that over the past couple thousand years, dominant international currencies have come and gone.

Without drawing much attention from American mainstream economists and politicians, the US dollar's position as a reserve currency has diminished from 80% thirty years ago to only about 65% currently, and that figure seems likely to continue down as the euro, for the time being, is becoming the more preferred currency. After all, the euro area represents a large economy, not much smaller than the US, and is the world's biggest exporter. It has financial markets deeper and actually more liquid than the US, and the euro area is a net creditor while the US is a net debtor nation with a history of using currency devaluation to reduce external deficits. To say that the US has undermined its world reserve currency position is an understatement!

Up to now, foreign central bank intervention as buyers of dollars has kept the dollar from falling a lot lower. But with still some $3 trillion of foreign exchange reserves still sitting in central banks around the world, when the selling really begins, the dollar will slide dramatically and financing America's current account deficit will become difficult.

Through mid-2004 those central banks holding the most dollars were financing 3/5 of the US deficit. In fact the global foreign exchange reserves in dollars (65%) have risen $1 trillion over the past 18 months, not because the US economic prospects are so good but because US dollar purchasers are attempting to hold down their own currencies for competitive trade purposes.

The large capital inflows have financed the American consumer buying binge and have expanded the deficit and the current account deficit currently at 6% of GDP is twice the size of the deficit in the late 1980s when the dollar fell sharply. Moreover in the 1980s the US was a net foreign creditor but today has net foreign liabilities, which by year end should reach $3.3 trillion or 28% of GDP. While the dollar has traded recently at around five year lows against the yen, Russia's central bank has further shaken the confidence in the dollar by hinting that it is considering diversifying from dollars to euros.

The twelve nation Euro fell from its 1999 debut to $.82 in 2000, but since then has risen 63% against the dollar. Adjusted for inflation the US dollar, however, is still not cheap even with its recent declines against the yen and Euro.

The dollar's real trade-weighted value against a broad basket of currencies is actually close to its average level over a 30-year period. Historically, an overvalued currency needs to under shoot its fair value by a wide margin in order to reduce a country's external deficit, but so far the real broad trade-weighted dollar has come off only 15% over the past couple of years.

From its peak in 1985, the dollar dropped by a third, but the US current account deficit is much larger now than it was in the 1980s. Conclusion: over time the dollar has a long way to drop, perhaps destined to lose over 30% of its current value, thus pushing the euro exchange rate to over $1.80. Moreover, the US current account deficit won't be corrected with a fall in the dollar alone. Americans will again need to begin saving at meaningful levels.

Foreign exchange traders in Japan and China are especially becoming unnerved by the dollar these days. Japan's US dollar holdings have reached $817 billion (90% of foreign currency reserves) and China's exposure at $600 billion (35% of foreign currency reserves) is not far behind. Both countries are pressuring the Bush Administration to balance the American budget and improve domestic savings rates. That, however, is going to be next to impossible to achieve.

Consumer spending represents two-thirds of the $11 trillion American economy. That spending contribution has propelled the economy for years. Personal savings sit at a near record low of 0.2% of after-tax income. The average American household now spends 13% of its after-tax income to pay off debts, the highest in almost twenty years. American households are scrambling to pay mortgages and car loans, and are carrying more than $8,000 in credit card debt. So it comes as no surprise that an American declares bankruptcy about every 15 seconds, five times the rate of 25 years ago.

It is unrealistic to assume that Americans' buying binge will end anytime soon, and that people will turn from spenders to savers. America's large budget deficits are also here to stay, fueled by the tax cuts and the $200 billion (and growing) price tag on the Iraq war. So there is little prospect of getting America's financial house in order. In fact, financial disorder is programmed into the future, which means the dollar's position in the world should continue to erode and may reach the point where foreigners won't finance the deficit without much higher interest rates.

The dollar, in the midst of that type of crisis, would collapse, taking the stock market with it and ushering in an ugly US recession, which would engulf the global economy and create a tumultuous foreign exchange market. A tumbling dollar would especially put upward pressure on the euro. Also, Asian economies would be distressed as their currencies strengthened, and their domestic demand would be stimulated to compensate for dwindling exports.

The period ahead looks like it will be one of fierce competitive currency devaluations among the world's major economic forces. In a world where confidence in any paper currency is really just suspicion asleep, there will be a lot of suspicious participants in the FX markets, who will remain permanently awake.

Great fortunes will be made in foreign exchange markets by a small known contingent of tried and tested professional foreign exchange traders and money managers. But the bulk of the world's population, due to a lack of know how, will end up being hurt by the tumultuous period rather than benefiting from it.

The US dollar is likely to end up toppled as the world's reserve currency, perhaps replaced by a temporary hodgepodge basket of currencies centered on the euro. But make no mistake about it, irreversible damage to confidence will be inflicted on the world's paper currency system and the stage will be set for the inevitable repudiation of all unbacked paper currencies. Eventually, a new system of currencies centered around gold will be initiated, and confidence will then be restored and suspicion will be asleep, at least until some other future generation also tries to substitute paper for gold.

[LivinLOS]

Still have any faith at all in thier guesses ??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Any chance you could put that post into a few parragraphs? Instead of copying and pasting a whole web site....

Your own thoughts might be more appreciated... even read.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not really.. A user is producing a times article as a base of information.. I then show how badly those same people he is quoting have done in the last 4 or 5 years.. You know boring old facts and statistics..

Just in the tradition of Comment.. Retort..

Following economics without emotion is one of continual research, quoting comments that are well argued and have basis in fact seems entirely appropriate for a discussion on why the dollar is going to ###### in a handbasket.

[LivinLOS]

But a very large part of the problem is since fiat currencies are no longer backed by anything there is another level of 'control' lost.. Its no coincedene that the dollar has crashed in spending terms (inflation) since Nixon closed the gold window.. Since that point politicions have been able to print money (if not value) to every problem (especially re-election), that solution can not be maintained over the long term.

[nev]

wow just read through all that some really interesting info.

my question if i may.

i have all my money in australian dollars, and no one has mentioned the aussie.

what is everyones thoughts on the australian dollar as in 5 years i will retire to thailand?

[Butterfly]

no, I don't think so.

the american dream is real.  and growing.... 

you say the world is changing, and I'm not aware of it???  perhaps you should read the papers more....  it seems to me there are more democracies out there than existed 50 years ago.

believe.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dude, can you pass the joint. I also want to live the American dream.

[Boon Mee]

no, I don't think so.

the american dream is real.  and growing.... 

you say the world is changing, and I'm not aware of it???  perhaps you should read the papers more....  it seems to me there are more democracies out there than existed 50 years ago.

believe.

Dude, can you pass the joint. I also want to live the American dream.

No opportunities for an amateur Muey Thai dude in Amerika...sorry!

[ray23]

no, I don't think so.

the american dream is real.  and growing.... 

you say the world is changing, and I'm not aware of it???  perhaps you should read the papers more....  it seems to me there are more democracies out there than existed 50 years ago.

believe.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dude, can you pass the joint. I also want to live the American dream.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No opportunities for an amateur Muey Thai dude in Amerika...sorry!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry Guys I know that there are a lot of people much sharper on this then I am, But when the Baht was at 38 last year I didn't see this

kind of discussion. It's 39 now and as it

was last year and it appears to have run about that way the past four years. I don't get it, is ther really a major problem or is it that soemone didn't have anything to do in the news room one day.

FXHistory: historical currency exchange rates

Conversion Table: USD to THB (Interbank rate)

Time period: 12/16/03 to 12/22/04.

Daily averages: 12/16/2003 39.720

12/17/2003 39.6950

12/18/2003 39.7090

12/19/2003 39.6690

12/20/2003 39.6710

12/21/2003 39.6920

12/22/2003 39.6190

12/23/2003 39.6470

12/24/2003 39.6550

12/25/2003 39.6920

12/26/2003 39.6540

12/27/2003 39.6470

12/28/2003 39.5990

12/29/2003 39.690

12/30/2003 39.6290

12/31/2003 39.710

01/01/2004 39.7090

01/02/2004 39.6660

01/03/2004 39.6020

01/04/2004 39.6570

01/05/2004 39.6810

01/06/2004 39.3810

01/07/2004 39.140

01/08/2004 39.0130

01/09/2004 39.0050

01/10/2004 39.0160

01/11/2004 39.0890

01/12/2004 39.1390

01/13/2004 38.9490

01/14/2004 38.9810

01/15/2004 39.0340

01/16/2004 39.0590

01/17/2004 39.0590

01/18/2004 39.5390

01/19/2004 39.1460

01/20/2004 39.1440

01/21/2004 39.1170

01/22/2004 39.0670

01/23/2004 39.0690

01/24/2004 39.1670

01/25/2004 39.190

01/26/2004 39.2140

01/27/2004 39.3810

01/28/2004 39.1310

01/29/2004 39.190

01/30/2004 39.2780

01/31/2004 39.2780

02/01/2004 39.2780

02/02/2004 39.2780

02/03/2004 39.2720

02/04/2004 39.2070

02/05/2004 39.1450

02/06/2004 39.2460

02/07/2004 39.0970

02/08/2004 39.130

02/09/2004 39.2320

02/10/2004 39.0640

02/11/2004 39.050

02/12/2004 38.9980

02/13/2004 38.9310

02/14/2004 38.9880

02/15/2004 39.1240

02/16/2004 39.0310

02/17/2004 39.0390

02/18/2004 39.1060

02/19/2004 39.4230

02/20/2004 39.1880

02/21/2004 39.3670

02/22/2004 39.2390

02/23/2004 39.3410

02/24/2004 39.3380

02/25/2004 39.280

02/26/2004 39.3650

02/27/2004 39.3950

02/28/2004 39.3430

02/29/2004 39.2230

03/01/2004 39.2770

03/02/2004 39.2950

03/03/2004 39.3970

03/04/2004 39.490

03/05/2004 39.6820

03/06/2004 39.3710

03/07/2004 39.5050

03/08/2004 39.3130

03/09/2004 39.5320

03/10/2004 39.3710

03/11/2004 39.4780

03/12/2004 39.3220

03/13/2004 39.4180

03/14/2004 39.4170

03/15/2004 39.3640

03/16/2004 39.470

03/17/2004 39.5520

03/18/2004 39.4610

03/19/2004 39.4030

03/20/2004 39.4550

03/21/2004 39.4730

03/22/2004 39.4570

03/23/2004 39.5060

03/24/2004 39.5460

03/25/2004 39.5610

03/26/2004 39.5950

03/27/2004 39.5170

03/28/2004 39.5590

03/29/2004 39.5360

03/30/2004 39.5890

03/31/2004 39.6270

04/01/2004 39.3160

04/02/2004 39.2140

04/03/2004 39.2550

04/04/2004 39.2480

04/05/2004 39.220

04/06/2004 39.1590

04/07/2004 39.1790

04/08/2004 39.1180

04/09/2004 39.1720

04/10/2004 39.1390

04/11/2004 39.1670

04/12/2004 39.1710

04/13/2004 39.170

04/14/2004 39.2170

04/15/2004 39.4240

04/16/2004 39.6680

04/17/2004 39.3880

04/18/2004 39.390

04/19/2004 39.4340

04/20/2004 39.4060

04/21/2004 39.4930

04/22/2004 39.670

04/23/2004 39.6970

04/24/2004 39.7070

04/25/2004 39.520

04/26/2004 39.5660

04/27/2004 39.640

04/28/2004 39.6840

04/29/2004 39.8970

04/30/2004 40.0890

05/01/2004 40.0620

05/02/2004 40.070

05/03/2004 40.1040

05/04/2004 40.0760

05/05/2004 40.0240

05/06/2004 39.9060

05/07/2004 39.9130

05/08/2004 40.2450

05/09/2004 40.1820

05/10/2004 40.2870

05/11/2004 40.7190

05/12/2004 40.6580

05/13/2004 40.5510

05/14/2004 40.8390

05/15/2004 40.9380

05/16/2004 40.9550

05/17/2004 40.8710

05/18/2004 40.860

05/19/2004 40.8750

05/20/2004 40.7750

05/21/2004 40.8720

05/22/2004 40.8130

05/23/2004 40.7860

05/24/2004 40.8510

05/25/2004 40.8210

05/26/2004 40.8880

05/27/2004 40.8380

05/28/2004 40.6860

05/29/2004 40.5960

05/30/2004 40.6130

05/31/2004 40.5310

06/01/2004 40.6180

06/02/2004 40.6850

06/03/2004 40.670

06/04/2004 40.7320

06/05/2004 40.7540

06/06/2004 40.7590

06/07/2004 40.6710

06/08/2004 40.5820

06/09/2004 40.6510

06/10/2004 40.6390

06/11/2004 40.6610

06/12/2004 40.7290

06/13/2004 40.7690

06/14/2004 40.7710

06/15/2004 41.0340

06/16/2004 40.9890

06/17/2004 40.9520

06/18/2004 40.9520

06/19/2004 40.9980

06/20/2004 41.0080

06/21/2004 41.010

06/22/2004 40.9430

06/23/2004 41.0170

06/24/2004 40.9930

06/25/2004 40.8920

06/26/2004 40.860

06/27/2004 40.8870

06/28/2004 40.9480

06/29/2004 40.9050

06/30/2004 40.9140

07/01/2004 40.9390

07/02/2004 40.8690

07/03/2004 40.7470

07/04/2004 40.7070

07/05/2004 40.7310

07/06/2004 40.7870

07/07/2004 40.8710

07/08/2004 40.8440

07/09/2004 40.8590

07/10/2004 40.7710

07/11/2004 40.8090

07/12/2004 40.8350

07/13/2004 40.7320

07/14/2004 40.8010

07/15/2004 40.8020

07/16/2004 40.8640

07/17/2004 40.8480

07/18/2004 40.9340

07/19/2004 40.8740

07/20/2004 40.8140

07/21/2004 40.8730

07/22/2004 41.0590

07/23/2004 40.9760

07/24/2004 41.070

07/25/2004 41.1160

07/26/2004 41.1370

07/27/2004 41.2530

07/28/2004 41.360

07/29/2004 41.5010

07/30/2004 41.4650

07/31/2004 41.3320

08/01/2004 41.3820

08/02/2004 41.3480

08/03/2004 41.3830

08/04/2004 41.480

08/05/2004 41.520

08/06/2004 41.5310

08/07/2004 41.4090

08/08/2004 41.5230

08/09/2004 41.4820

08/10/2004 41.4830

08/11/2004 41.4510

08/12/2004 41.5820

08/13/2004 41.580

08/14/2004 41.5460

08/15/2004 41.5870

08/16/2004 41.5830

08/17/2004 41.5490

08/18/2004 41.5380

08/19/2004 41.4930

08/20/2004 41.480

08/21/2004 41.4780

08/22/2004 41.5250

08/23/2004 41.5010

08/24/2004 41.5080

08/25/2004 41.5110

08/26/2004 41.5670

08/27/2004 41.70

08/28/2004 41.750

08/29/2004 41.6710

08/30/2004 41.7110

08/31/2004 41.740

09/01/2004 41.6880

09/02/2004 41.6690

09/03/2004 41.5940

09/04/2004 41.6150

09/05/2004 41.7310

09/06/2004 41.5830

09/07/2004 41.6520

09/08/2004 41.7160

09/09/2004 41.6680

09/10/2004 41.6560

09/11/2004 41.6190

09/12/2004 41.6010

09/13/2004 41.7250

09/14/2004 41.5830

09/15/2004 41.2890

09/16/2004 41.3350

09/17/2004 41.3280

09/18/2004 41.3220

09/19/2004 41.3420

09/20/2004 41.2940

09/21/2004 41.3440

09/22/2004 41.2450

09/23/2004 41.3980

09/24/2004 41.4720

09/25/2004 41.4440

09/26/2004 41.4660

09/27/2004 41.4290

09/28/2004 41.5710

09/29/2004 41.6290

09/30/2004 41.5710

10/01/2004 41.5060

10/02/2004 41.3760

10/03/2004 41.4370

10/04/2004 41.4910

10/05/2004 41.4160

10/06/2004 41.4720

10/07/2004 41.4410

10/08/2004 41.4330

10/09/2004 41.3440

10/10/2004 41.3440

10/11/2004 41.3680

10/12/2004 41.3460

10/13/2004 41.3280

10/14/2004 41.4240

10/15/2004 41.4510

10/16/2004 41.4830

10/17/2004 41.510

10/18/2004 41.5290

10/19/2004 41.4780

10/20/2004 41.3890

10/21/2004 41.3680

10/22/2004 41.3720

10/23/2004 41.2360

10/24/2004 41.3490

10/25/2004 41.3280

10/26/2004 41.1550

10/27/2004 41.0570

10/28/2004 41.1160

10/29/2004 41.0340

10/30/2004 41.0280

10/31/2004 41.0050

11/01/2004 40.9140

11/02/2004 41.1010

11/03/2004 41.0140

11/04/2004 41.2140

11/05/2004 41.0070

11/06/2004 40.8650

11/07/2004 40.9340

11/08/2004 40.9550

11/09/2004 40.7530

11/10/2004 40.6930

11/11/2004 40.7170

11/12/2004 40.7120

11/13/2004 40.4050

11/14/2004 40.5040

11/15/2004 40.3410

11/16/2004 40.430

11/17/2004 40.3930

11/18/2004 40.1810

11/19/2004 40.2010

11/20/2004 39.9660

11/21/2004 40.0660

11/22/2004 40.1020

11/23/2004 39.8550

11/24/2004 39.8680

11/25/2004 39.7670

11/26/2004 39.5360

11/27/2004 39.4680

11/28/2004 39.4570

11/29/2004 39.4910

11/30/2004 39.5510

12/01/2004 39.5350

12/02/2004 39.4040

12/03/2004 39.2520

12/04/2004 39.120

12/05/2004 39.1620

12/06/2004 39.0670

12/07/2004 39.2440

12/08/2004 39.1280

12/09/2004 39.4790

12/10/2004 39.7020

12/11/2004 39.7750

12/12/2004 39.6230

12/13/2004 39.7990

12/14/2004 39.470

12/15/2004 39.4980

12/16/2004 39.3420

12/17/2004 39.2130

12/18/2004 39.220

12/19/2004 39.2320

12/20/2004 39.1590

12/21/2004 39.1840

12/22/2004 39.0170

Average (373 days): 40.31129

High: 41.77000

Low: 38.55300

[LivinLOS]

@Ray yes the baht has devalued along with other asian currencies pegged either offically or loosely to the dollar.. Great for people like me that decided to hold bulk Euros a few years back (85c to the Euro days) who used to get 36 Baht on their Euro and now get 52 !!! Pretty much the same for sterling holders..

Once China (inevitably) unpegs expect other asian currencies to allow more float room also at that point we could really start to see it move rapidly.

As to holding the Aussie dollar.. Oz (and NZ) have had a faily solid run and appear pretty independant of the US market, personally I am fairly strongly against holding any fiat currency in the short to mid term but I would not be especially adverse to NZ or Oz currency.. High mineral wealth, low population and a sociaty that (I percieve, dont have hard data) to be less credit junkies and in turn likely to weather possible hard times and recession.

Edited December 22, 2004 by LivinLOS

[ray23]

@Ray yes the baht has devalued along with other asian currencies pegged either offically or loosely to the dollar.. Great for people like me that decided to hold bulk Euros a few years back (85c to the Euro days) who used to get 36 Baht on their Euro and now get 52 !!! Pretty much the same for sterling holders..

Once China (inevitably) unpegs expect other asian currencies to allow more float room also at that point we could really start to see it move rapidly.

As to holding the Aussie dollar.. Oz (and NZ) have had a faily solid run and appear pretty independant of the US market, personally I am fairly strongly against holding any fiat currency in the short to mid term but I would not be especially adverse to NZ or Oz currency.. High mineral wealth, low population and a sociaty that (I percieve, dont have hard data)  to be less credit junkies and in turn likely to weather possible hard times and recession.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for the logical answer so is the recommendation to convert to the Euro at this stage of game. Since my retirement is from America I'm not sure I can get retirement paid in any other currency. However I do have descreationay monies in excess of $1300 a month. Or suppose I could get it converted in total some way althoug I don't know how. Then do out right buys. What are your thoughts.

[Harmonica]

Fellas,

As softly as ever, with just a shhhh, may I humbly, oh, ever so gently, coax you, guide you and urge you to

start ACCUMULATING Dollars (USD).

Do it "saaalowwleee" every week, a "leeetle beet" at a time.

Do this while every mothers' son is negative the Dollar.

Sentiment plays a huge role in overall market success and I believe we are at a dramatic, historical turning point. A bottom is being formed currently. No. no, not that kind of bottom!

There is not ONE dude who's +ve the Dollar--that's why I'm hiding and am only just whispering to you. I've taken too many bullets in the past and I'm a wee bit gunshy. The shooters later came back to cuddle & fondle me, but I'm not into that sort of thing.

Four years in Thailand and I'm getting very lonely making decent money in the markets. No office required, no overhead, just Tech. analysis, a computer, 4 Brokerage accounts, and guts to go against the HERD. The CNBC (and other)experts will ruin you! I've already told them to "piss off", the lying, BS mothers.

It hurts & torments me to see that so many wildebeast are just going to jump into the river full of hungry crocs with narry a thought that it is a classic bear-trap.

It is dangerous to be different and go against the multitude, the crowd, for in the end it is only a teeeeeny-weeeeny %age of cats that profit. These profits come from the herd's losses.

Give it some thought my friends. Just think about it, thats all I ask.

God bless you all for you've opened a door to a vista (this topic) I just plain love and by all measures, it loves me.

Adios

Harmonica