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U.s. Rogue Nation Image Hurts Dollar In Asia


Tornado

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Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Being an American overseas these days can be a surreal experience. Virtually everyone, it seems, seeks that 10-minute why-I'm-upset-with-the-U.S. conversation.

Recent stops in Bangkok, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Mumbai and Vientiane, Laos, featured myriad such moments, leaving little doubt that anti-American sentiment -- or more to the point, anti-Bush-administration sentiment -- is intensifying in Asia.

And is all this negativity manifesting itself economically? Yes, argues Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist of Banc of America Capital Management in New York. It won't make him many friends in Middle America, but Quinlan thinks the U.S. image as a ``rogue nation'' is a key force behind the dollar's decline.

``The message from the foreign exchange markets'' of late ``seems to be simply this: The free ride for the rogue nation is over,'' Quinlan argues. ``No more guns and butter, or wads of foreign cash for a nation deeply enmeshed in the Middle East, heavily indebted at home and seemingly disengaged -- some might say -- from the rest of the world.''

The sinking dollar, Quinlan says, ``could be a sign that the world is no longer willing to underwrite the designs of U.S. foreign policy. To a large extent, we believe a rebound in the U.S. dollar could hinge on a revamped foreign policy.''

The Black Market

There's ample economic justification for the dollar's 7 percent drop versus the euro and 5 percent slide against the yen this quarter. Record budget and current account deficits are spooking investors, as are signs from President George W. Bush's administration that further tax cuts are on the way. If so, the U.S. economy isn't about to fix its imbalances.

That's why some are quick to dismiss the idea geopolitics is driving down the dollar. ``It's an economic phenomenon,'' says Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado. ``I see little evidence on a blow-by-blow basis that swings in the dollar line up with political events.''

Still, a recent chat with black-market currency traders in Bangkok bolsters Quinlan's argument. The U.S. dollar is always a good thing to have in Asia, a region plagued by currency instability during the past decade. And so, Asia's black marketers tend to seek out people who may be holding them.

In front of an ATM the other evening, a Thai exchanger approached me looking for euros or British pounds. Seeing I only had dollars, he winced. ``No, I'm not buying dollars these days,'' said the man, who would only tell me he first name, Ampon.

Dollar Mirrors the U.S.

As Ampon explained, most people in his line of work in Asia figure the dollar will plunge this year. Asked why, he answered simply: ``Bush will be around a few more years.''

All this does have a conspiratorial quality, and it's impossible to quantify. Still, some long-time Asia watchers like Marc Faber have been warning investors U.S. foreign policy will hurt the dollar. Faber, Hong Kong-based head of Marc Faber Ltd., has been highlighting the possibility the U.S. will attack Iran.

Moreover, Faber says that what he views as ``continuous human rights abuses'' by the Bush administration in Iraq and elsewhere have made China's human rights record ``look like Cinderella.'' That perception, he argues, is increasingly worrying investors who wonder about Bush's plans for the world during his second term.

The dollar's declines, Quinlan says, ``mirror America's plunging approval rating with the rest of the world.'' It's not just the Iraq war, he says, but also the decision to scrap the Kyoto environmental treaty, its strained relations with international institutions like the United Nations and its mounting visa restrictions.

`Music' to Some Detractors

``It seems as if America's popularity with the rest of the world has never been lower,'' Quinlan says. ``Little wonder, then, that the U.S. dollar is as unloved as it is today.''

That's music to the ears of some well-known U.S. detractors like Mahathir Mohamad, who until October 2003 was prime minister of Malaysia. In a recent interview with Gulf News in Dubai, he said the U.S. ``owes huge sums of money to the rest of the world'' and ``if people do not keep giving money to the U.S., it will go bankrupt.''

Mahathir also suggested Muslim countries should refuse to trade in dollars and use their economic clout to force a change in U.S. policies.

Ironically, the U.S. is following what's known as the ``Mahathir doctrine.'' It refers to Mahathir's decision during the 1997-1998 Asian crisis to rebuff the International Monetary Fund's economic advice. Earlier this year, U.S. Treasury officials dismissed the IMF's concerns about soaring current account and budget deficits as ``breathless hyperbole.''

More Pressure

Why should Treasury officials care that the U.S. has a growing credibility gap In Asia? Because central banks in the region have a huge say in whether the U.S. continues living beyond its means or plunges into crisis. Asian monetary authorities hold more than $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities. If they pull that plug, the U.S. is in big trouble.

``The sooner America's image is restored, the better the prospects for the U.S. dollar,'' Quinlan notes. ``Our hunch is that this may take time, leaving the dollar vulnerable to more downside pressure.''

To contact the writer of this column:

William Pesek Jr. in New York or through the Tokyo newsroom at

[email protected].

To contact the editor responsible for this column:

Bill Ahearn at [email protected].

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Thanks for posting the article Tornado. I suspect that the "... ample economic justification for the dollar's 7 percent drop versus the euro and 5 percent slide against the yen this quarter ... (and) Record budget and current account deficits are spooking investors, as are signs from President George W. Bush's administration that further tax cuts are on the way. If so, the U.S. economy isn't about to fix its imbalances" are the major cause for the decline. And for good reason.

Although there is no doubt that a decline in popularity is a factor, also for good reason. But admittedly, while I am not an economist, I think that the statement: "central banks in the region have a huge say in whether the U.S. continues living beyond its means or plunges into crisis. Asian monetary authorities hold more than $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities. If they pull that plug, the U.S. is in big trouble" is a bit of an overstatement. No doubt it would hurt, but there are other mitigating factors.

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Japan holds majority of said securities and they aren't pulling the plug anytime soon. Japanese PM openly endorsed Bush during the election period.

Low dollar rate is purely artificial to spur economic growth- I have an inkling once present US govt is satisfied you will see the dollar skyrocket. :o

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Japan holds majority of said securities and they aren't pulling the plug anytime soon.  Japanese PM openly endorsed Bush during the election period.

Low dollar rate is purely artificial to spur economic growth- I have an inkling once present US govt is satisfied you will see the dollar skyrocket.  :o

you wanna bet? :D

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Japan holds majority of said securities and they aren't pulling the plug anytime soon.  Japanese PM openly endorsed Bush during the election period.

Low dollar rate is purely artificial to spur economic growth- I have an inkling once present US govt is satisfied you will see the dollar skyrocket.  :D

you wanna bet? :D

Torny - Why not? Already batting 100%- did tell you Bush would be re-elected! :o

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Japan holds majority of said securities and they aren't pulling the plug anytime soon.  Japanese PM openly endorsed Bush during the election period.

Low dollar rate is purely artificial to spur economic growth- I have an inkling once present US govt is satisfied you will see the dollar skyrocket.   :D

you wanna bet? :D

Torny - Why not? Already batting 100%- did tell you Bush would be re-elected! :o

That you did BRIT ! :D , but I think the US is in major trouble in all monetry and political arenas due to having Bush as the BOSS.

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Japan holds majority of said securities and they aren't pulling the plug anytime soon.  Japanese PM openly endorsed Bush during the election period.

Low dollar rate is purely artificial to spur economic growth- I have an inkling once present US govt is satisfied you will see the dollar skyrocket.  :D

you wanna bet? :D

Torny - Why not? Already batting 100%- did tell you Bush would be re-elected! :o

That you did BRIT ! :D , but I think the US is in major trouble in all monetry and political arenas due to having Bush as the BOSS.

Torny- I'll remain positive because lets face it if $ truely goes to shi^* thats trouble for the world and we will all feel it.

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Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Being an American overseas these days can be a surreal experience. Virtually everyone, it seems, seeks that 10-minute why-I'm-upset-with-the-U.S. conversation.

I read the entire article and failed to see any correlations made between the dollar's current status and US short term and long term economic policy. All I read was a bunch of hearsay mumbo-jumbo about how US foreign policy is causing the dollar to tank. WHAT RUBBISH!!!

The US is directly responsible for about 35% of the total world economy, and significantly impacts the other 65%. That is hardly consistent with the US being a "rogue nation." Would a "rogue nation" willingly continue to supply 90-something-% of all foreign aid being given to places like Africa?

I'm not the brightest bulb in the ol' xmas tree, but I gotta believe the dollar is currently "weak" because US economic policy wants it to be "weak" as part of a longer term monetary policy. Contrary to popular opinion, there are benefits to having a "weak" dollar.

As far as LoS goes, I believe the Thai Baht is intended to be directly linked with the dollar anyway, which is intended to keep it in the 38-42 ThB per dollar range. Is that necessarily a bad thing? Seems like a pretty good decision to me.

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Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Being an American overseas these days can be a surreal experience. Virtually everyone, it seems, seeks that 10-minute why-I'm-upset-with-the-U.S. conversation.

I read the entire article and failed to see any correlations made between the dollar's current status and US short term and long term economic policy. All I read was a bunch of hearsay mumbo-jumbo about how US foreign policy is causing the dollar to tank. WHAT RUBBISH!!!

The US is directly responsible for about 35% of the total world economy, and significantly impacts the other 65%. That is hardly consistent with the US being a "rogue nation." Would a "rogue nation" willingly continue to supply 90-something-% of all foreign aid being given to places like Africa?

I'm not the brightest bulb in the ol' xmas tree, but I gotta believe the dollar is currently "weak" because US economic policy wants it to be "weak" as part of a longer term monetary policy. Contrary to popular opinion, there are benefits to having a "weak" dollar.

As far as LoS goes, I believe the Thai Baht is intended to be directly linked with the dollar anyway, which is intended to keep it in the 38-42 ThB per dollar range. Is that necessarily a bad thing? Seems like a pretty good decision to me.

Spee, while I agree with your global assessment, the American domestic economy is also very wobbly at the moment. There is no doubt, as it has been stated by very real economists, that the high deficit, weak recovery signals, and economic ambiguities exact a definite price. Who is paying that price - well, that is another, and most likely forbidden, thread.

But I agree that the article veers toward simplistic explanations. There is no doubt that W.'s government is benefitting from the weak dollar, because it reduces the real value of our defecits abroad and bolsters the value of our exports. You do not see Germany - the largest European economy - dancing in the streets because of a weak dollar.

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Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Being an American overseas these days can be a surreal experience. Virtually everyone, it seems, seeks that 10-minute why-I'm-upset-with-the-U.S. conversation.

I read the entire article and failed to see any correlations made between the dollar's current status and US short term and long term economic policy. All I read was a bunch of hearsay mumbo-jumbo about how US foreign policy is causing the dollar to tank. WHAT RUBBISH!!!

The US is directly responsible for about 35% of the total world economy, and significantly impacts the other 65%. That is hardly consistent with the US being a "rogue nation." Would a "rogue nation" willingly continue to supply 90-something-% of all foreign aid being given to places like Africa?

I'm not the brightest bulb in the ol' xmas tree, but I gotta believe the dollar is currently "weak" because US economic policy wants it to be "weak" as part of a longer term monetary policy. Contrary to popular opinion, there are benefits to having a "weak" dollar.

As far as LoS goes, I believe the Thai Baht is intended to be directly linked with the dollar anyway, which is intended to keep it in the 38-42 ThB per dollar range. Is that necessarily a bad thing? Seems like a pretty good decision to me.

Spee, while I agree with your global assessment, the American domestic economy is also very wobbly at the moment. There is no doubt, as it has been stated by very real economists, that the high deficit, weak recovery signals, and economic ambiguities exact a definite price. Who is paying that price - well, that is another, and most likely forbidden, thread.

But I agree that the article veers toward simplistic explanations. There is no doubt that W.'s government is benefitting from the weak dollar, because it reduces the real value of our defecits abroad and bolsters the value of our exports. You do not see Germany - the largest European economy - dancing in the streets because of a weak dollar.

Kat,

Please explain to this slow antipodean. :o

Why would the weak dollar bolster the value of imports? or are you saying that exports would increase due to the low dollar.

I take it that the Germans would not be happy because their export products are priced in USD?

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Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Being an American overseas these days can be a surreal experience. Virtually everyone, it seems, seeks that 10-minute why-I'm-upset-with-the-U.S. conversation.

I read the entire article and failed to see any correlations made between the dollar's current status and US short term and long term economic policy. All I read was a bunch of hearsay mumbo-jumbo about how US foreign policy is causing the dollar to tank. WHAT RUBBISH!!!

The US is directly responsible for about 35% of the total world economy, and significantly impacts the other 65%. That is hardly consistent with the US being a "rogue nation." Would a "rogue nation" willingly continue to supply 90-something-% of all foreign aid being given to places like Africa?

I'm not the brightest bulb in the ol' xmas tree, but I gotta believe the dollar is currently "weak" because US economic policy wants it to be "weak" as part of a longer term monetary policy. Contrary to popular opinion, there are benefits to having a "weak" dollar.

As far as LoS goes, I believe the Thai Baht is intended to be directly linked with the dollar anyway, which is intended to keep it in the 38-42 ThB per dollar range. Is that necessarily a bad thing? Seems like a pretty good decision to me.

Spee, while I agree with your global assessment, the American domestic economy is also very wobbly at the moment. There is no doubt, as it has been stated by very real economists, that the high deficit, weak recovery signals, and economic ambiguities exact a definite price. Who is paying that price - well, that is another, and most likely forbidden, thread.

But I agree that the article veers toward simplistic explanations. There is no doubt that W.'s government is benefitting from the weak dollar, because it reduces the real value of our defecits abroad and bolsters the value of our exports. You do not see Germany - the largest European economy - dancing in the streets because of a weak dollar.

Kat,

Please explain to this slow antipodean. :o

Why would the weak dollar bolster the value of imports? or are you saying that exports would increase due to the low dollar.

I take it that the Germans would not be happy because their export products are priced in USD?

Low dollar translates into cheaper goods hence more goods bought increasing overall exports. However we are assuming no tariffs are in place! :D

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Yes, Chuchock, as Brit describes. Trust me, I am also slow and definitely not an economist. But the weak dollar benefits US exports because they become favorably priced in comparison to other exports. And Germany has the largest export economy in Europe, so a weak dollar has an adverse effect on their competitive exports. Also, if the real value of our currency declines, so does the real value of our trade deficits (I think. Are there any real economists or macroeconomics buffs that can elaborate?)

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Kat, the same thing happened in NZ approx 6-7 years ago. Very weak dollar etc. exports boomed and so did the economy.ROE went under 50c in the dollar.Now the NZD is around USD 70c and while the exporters are complaining, the economy is still booming.

NZ is basically a primary producer and is very geared to exports though.

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You do not see Germany - the largest European economy - dancing in the streets because of a weak dollar.

The German economy is in the toilet for a variety of other reasons. Primary among these are the socialist policies regarding employment and compensation.

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Please explain to this slow antipodean. :o

Sticks and stones ... not a mod but may I suggest sticking to responding to the post and not the poster.

And for Tornado, yes I did read some of the link. Heavily one-sided wasn't it? I recall similar attacks on Regan economic policy in the 80's and what happened? The booming economy of the 90's. Was that a bad thing?

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You do not see Germany - the largest European economy - dancing in the streets because of a weak dollar.

The German economy is in the toilet for a variety of other reasons. Primary among these are the socialist policies regarding employment and compensation.

East German integration is what really put Germany in the toilet! :o

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Please explain to this slow antipodean. :o

Sticks and stones ... not a mod but may I suggest sticking to responding to the post and not the poster.

And for Tornado, yes I did read some of the link. Heavily one-sided wasn't it? I recall similar attacks on Regan economic policy in the 80's and what happened? The booming economy of the 90's. Was that a bad thing?

I was refering to myself. Do you know what antipodean means? :D

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Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Being an American overseas these days can be a surreal experience. Virtually everyone, it seems, seeks that 10-minute why-I'm-upset-with-the-U.S. conversation.

I read the entire article and failed to see any correlations made between the dollar's current status and US short term and long term economic policy. All I read was a bunch of hearsay mumbo-jumbo about how US foreign policy is causing the dollar to tank. WHAT RUBBISH!!!

The US is directly responsible for about 35% of the total world economy, and significantly impacts the other 65%. That is hardly consistent with the US being a "rogue nation." Would a "rogue nation" willingly continue to supply 90-something-% of all foreign aid being given to places like Africa?

I'm not the brightest bulb in the ol' xmas tree, but I gotta believe the dollar is currently "weak" because US economic policy wants it to be "weak" as part of a longer term monetary policy. Contrary to popular opinion, there are benefits to having a "weak" dollar.

As far as LoS goes, I believe the Thai Baht is intended to be directly linked with the dollar anyway, which is intended to keep it in the 38-42 ThB per dollar range. Is that necessarily a bad thing? Seems like a pretty good decision to me.

Right On, Spee

What we got here is just the Gent back to his old America-Bashing self again. Home from his whirl-wind world-wide tour full of ca ca as usual.

BTW, what has this thread got to do with Thailand???

A moderator should shut it down forthwith... :o

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Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Being an American overseas these days can be a surreal experience. Virtually everyone, it seems, seeks that 10-minute why-I'm-upset-with-the-U.S. conversation.

I read the entire article and failed to see any correlations made between the dollar's current status and US short term and long term economic policy. All I read was a bunch of hearsay mumbo-jumbo about how US foreign policy is causing the dollar to tank. WHAT RUBBISH!!!

The US is directly responsible for about 35% of the total world economy, and significantly impacts the other 65%. That is hardly consistent with the US being a "rogue nation." Would a "rogue nation" willingly continue to supply 90-something-% of all foreign aid being given to places like Africa?

I'm not the brightest bulb in the ol' xmas tree, but I gotta believe the dollar is currently "weak" because US economic policy wants it to be "weak" as part of a longer term monetary policy. Contrary to popular opinion, there are benefits to having a "weak" dollar.

As far as LoS goes, I believe the Thai Baht is intended to be directly linked with the dollar anyway, which is intended to keep it in the 38-42 ThB per dollar range. Is that necessarily a bad thing? Seems like a pretty good decision to me.

Right On, Spee

What we got here is just the Gent back to his old America-Bashing self again. Home from his whirl-wind world-wide tour full of ca ca as usual.

BTW, what has this thread got to do with Thailand???

A moderator should shut it down forthwith... :D

You did make me laugh then Boon. :o

As I always stick to forum rules, I did consider this post for quite a while before posting, and thankfully found a sentence that made it Thai related. :D

"Recent stops in Bangkok, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Mumbai and Vientiane, Laos, featured myriad such moments, leaving little doubt that anti-American sentiment -- or more to the point, anti-Bush-administration sentiment -- is intensifying in Asia. "

:D:D

Edited by Tornado
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American Brands…How are US brands perceived around the world?

Market research conducted by NOP World found that the familiarity and use of 15 US brands that it studied among 30,000 consumers in 30 countries had fallen up to three percentage points this year from 2003.

Financial Times

War could wound US brands

May 24, 2004

"Our study has found that there's declining awareness, popularity and usage of U.S. brands," said Tom Miller, managing director of market research consultant NOP World.

The study, based on anecdotal evidence rather than actual sales data, suggested that the U.S. military engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan were among the factors contributing to negative attitudes worldwide toward U.S. products.

CNN/Money

U.S. Brands Losing Luster

May 21, 2004

"…But brand America is in trouble in its foreign markets, according to a new poll by NOP World, a market research firm that owns [sic] Roper, Mediamark Research and several other consultancies."

..."It cannot be a good story for American brands," NOP (World) managing director Tom Miller told a conference of marketers in New York on May 7. "The question is, 'How bad for how long?'"

Brandweek

Out of the Box: ###### Americans

May 17, 2004

The group (Business for Diplomatic Action, founded by DDB Worldwide Chairman Keith Reinhard) jells as global regard for the U.S. slides, according to surveys like one released this month by NOP World, a market research division of U.K.-based publisher and business services conglomerate United Business Media. As part of an annual check, it surveyed 30,000 people in 30 countries from January to March and found that altruistic concepts, including internationalism and equality, were less associated with American culture in 2004 than they were since the question was asked five years ago.

Advertising Age

Marketing Execs try to polish Brand USA

May 17, 2004

…A new study by market research firm NOP World shows that growing global distaste with U.S. policy is beginning to hit the nation's products...To assess this unpleasant marketing reality, we gathered three authorities in global branding: Tom Miller, managing director of NOP World and the study's coordinator; Simon Anholt, U.K. government adviser on public diplomacy and director of nation-branding consultancy Placebrands; and Jack Yan, author of Beyond Branding.

…To improve these perceptions, the business community needs to act in concert—share best practices and new corporate initiatives.

Business 2.0

Marketing the Brand "America"

May 13, 2004

Declining respect for American cultural values exacerbated by the crisis in Iraq is having a potentially disastrous effect on the image of US brands such as McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Nike and Microsoft, a new worldwide study of consumer attitudes has found.

…According to NOP World, which carried out the survey, a mixture of America's controversial involvement in Iraq, its handling of the "war against terrorism," corporate scandals, such as WorldCom, and its failure to sign up to the Kyoto environmental agreement, have all had a profoundly negative effect on the perception of US culture and its major brands.

MediaGuardian

Consumers Send "Warning Sign" to US Brands

May 11, 2004

Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Nike and Microsoft have all seen a decline in the number of people who trust them, according to new research on how people see America, as the world's only superpower suffers an image problem.

The NOP World survey looks at the attitudes of consumers in more than 25 countries around the world and claims to represent the views of more than 1.3bn consumers.

Brand Republic

Top American Brands Suffer as Attitudes to US Change

May 11, 2004

On the heels of a study that documented diminishing foreign regard for American culture and products, a new organization of marketing and advertising corporations is preparing to raise an initial $1 million to combat anti-Americanism abroad.

The nonprofit group, Business for Diplomatic Action, is the brainchild of DDB Worldwide Chairman Keith Reinhard.

The move comes after several of the group's members of last week's NOP World conference heard the findings of the latest annual survey of global consumer attitudes by the market research organization.

AdAge.com

New Keith Reinhard Group to Battle

Anti-Americanism

May 11, 2004

…The study's findings were released this afternoon at NOP World's "Driving Growth Across the Marketing Cycle" conference at Manhattan's Millennium Broadway Hotel. The one-day event drew about 500 advertising, marketing and market research executives from firms that included...UPS, Kraft, Volvo and DDB Worldwide.

NOP World's annual survey of 30,000 consumers in 30 countries outside the US found that diminishing respect for American culture is having a detrimental impact on American brands around the world.

…"It's not like there's a massive boycott (of US) goods," said Tom Miller, managing director of NOP World. "Instead, it seems to be an erosion of support. It's not falling off the face of the earth, but it is clearly a warning sign for brands."

…The report suggests that US businesses should pool their resources and best practices in an effort to better shift consumer perceptions outside the country.

AdAge.com

Global Consumer Regard for US Brands Declines

May 6, 2004

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Took a few micro/macro econ courses at uni, but I'm afraid I'm no expert.  Not sure either how a weak currency assists in lessening overall debt numbers.

Don't think. It's part of the NeoCon new economic acts. Bankrupt the country so it can be rebuit from scratch with slave labor.

Edited by Butterfly
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You do not see Germany - the largest European economy - dancing in the streets because of a weak dollar.

The German economy is in the toilet for a variety of other reasons. Primary among these are the socialist policies regarding employment and compensation.

"The German economy is in the toilet for a variety of other reasons" AS WELL.

In this case, my point about the German economy was made to illustrate how a weak dollar favorably bolsters US exports to the chagrin of other exporters.

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You folks seem to be enjoying this topic, hence I am moving it rather than closing it. However if it gets out of hand it will be closed and members will be directed to the www.bearpit.net where political discussions are welcome.

Cheers

tukyleith

Not to worry, Leith. The Gent is flooding the Bearpit with his usual conspiracy junk again.

So good to have him back... :o

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