Thai Economic Crash

[Bizz]

Here you are Naam they were all growing rise

the Thais who lost their jobs did grow rice. can't judge Korea or East Timor. i visited only Thailand in the years before and after the crisis.

This statement say's it all we never learn from our past mistakes

Bankers simply made too many bad loans to their cronies

[Naam]

Here you are Naam they were all growing rise

the Thais who lost their jobs did grow rice. can't judge Korea or East Timor. i visited only Thailand in the years before and after the crisis.

This statement say's it all we never learn from our past mistakes. Bankers simply made too many bad loans to their cronies

your point is?

[midas]

.. - no recovery can ever take place until people learn to trust the banks again ..

Why not?

Well to me the banks in the system as we know it today is like

the need for oil in an engine so unless you are also referring to the re- booting

of the financial system

Almost half of all Britons fear that their money is not safe in the bank.

An exclusive survey for The Times has revealed that 44 per cent of us

are less certain about the security of bank deposits, the clearest indication yet

of how confidence in Britain's financial institutions has drained away.

David Lourie, an analyst at the Good Business consultancy, said: “Consumers

are starting to make noises about having less confidence in the financial system,

in the financial services sector, and they are not necessarily happy with their money

being in a bank.

“If only a small proportion of the 44 per cent who say they are worried act

on their fears, it could have pretty big consequences and compound some

of the things we have seeing at the moment.”

perhaps the following full article will shed light on my comment :-

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle4813499.ece

The system has seized up

[gregb]

Any takers on what they think they mean by reboot the financial system?

Basically exactly what you think it means. They are going to stuff it full of newly printed money to keep it going for a while. Eventually it will crash anyway, and they'll start the whole system over with a new currency du jour which they claim will fix all of the previous problems.

It won't of course. Nothing will except for a complete, systematic overhaul of our culture and lifestyle, but they'll try a reboot anyway. Just the same way tech support always asks you to reboot your computer when you find a bug in the software. Fixing the bug requires too much work. The real questions are:

1) How long will stuffing the banking system full of money keep it going before it crashes.

2) What will the new currency be after the reboot?

If any of us knew the answer to those two questions we'd be able to buy a small country.

Edited January 30, 2009 by gregb

[fezman]

In which state are most of you?

* denial “No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can’t be; I would have heard about it.”

* anger “Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining “If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won’t have to really change. I’ll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year.”

* fear “I’m going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I’m not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max.”

* depression “Crap, we’re screwed. What’s the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There’s nothing that any of us can do, anyway.”

* acceptance “However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let’s figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we’ve got, not what we wish we had.”

I usually get through all of these on a good night thanks to this forum, rolling 24 hour news and alcohol however my wife remains oblivious (thanks to Thai Soaps) - I sometimes wonder which of us is better off!

Indeed i forgot to make this Thai related. I'll add one. It is the first one.

* Ignorance "All the same. Nothing exists out of the one millimeter of space around me."

yer love that one ,lets buy a new car.o yer and dont forget the gold .

[jdrake72]

Read the last 2 articles:

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/

Time is up for the THB, the only way to avoid a disaster of the economy in Thailand m the baht is to be weaken,

In the past months/couple of years it has been one of the strongest currencies in the world and in the past 2 months has risen like crazy against any world currency, INCLUDING THE US $ (3% rise since December 1st ).

THB is always following teh world strongest currency, when the dollar was weak, THB has risen like crazy from over 40 to 31, than it when the USD has been strong,THB followed it and Euro e pound has slumped against the THB, after the USD small crisis in early December, the THB has followed the euro and the USD has collapsed against the Bhat 3% in just few weeks.

Result: the Baht is always the strongest currency despite the disaster of the politics,economy and just about everything in the country.

Logical conclusion: THB is the most overvalued currency in the world and time is running out ....

Just lear from the past: what happened after years of stubborness of the peg at 25 THB for 1 $ ? A collapse.

What happened after the moghtly argentine peso was pegged to the dollar at 1:1 and everybody assured it was deemed to be a perennial dollarization ? Bullshit, remember what happened in Argentina after the artificial parity was given up, right ?

The only good thing now here is that int. reserves are still high and in theory the THB could be keeped artificially high for longer...but THE LONGER you mask its real value , the SHARPER will be the decline the day when they will not able to mask it anymore....

Anywhere, anytime including in Thailand, the history has been the same, why they don t learn from the past ?

Jewelry and textile business are going to close ALL OF THEM, it is a disaster I tell you, I work in this field, Thailand cannot minimally compete anymore m ok the baht is not ALL the problem, but it is a part of the problem.

[Bizz]

Here you are Naam they were all growing rise

the Thais who lost their jobs did grow rice. can't judge Korea or East Timor. i visited only Thailand in the years before and after the crisis.

This statement say's it all we never learn from our past mistakes. Bankers simply made too many bad loans to their cronies

your point is?

s

History has a point of repeating itself. None of us can clearly see where this will end up. 18 bl in bonuses.

For what, this pisses me off big time as it has Obama. not because i am loosing money but to see greed is good repeating itself over and over.

[flying]

For what, this pisses me off big time as it has Obama. not because i am loosing money but to see greed is good repeating itself over and over.

This is the main thing I see these days.

Folks are not doom & gloom mainly folks are pissed

Edited January 30, 2009 by flying

[mommysboy]

Read the last 2 articles:

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/

Time is up for the THB, the only way to avoid a disaster of the economy in Thailand m the baht is to be weaken,

In the past months/couple of years it has been one of the strongest currencies in the world and in the past 2 months has risen like crazy against any world currency, INCLUDING THE US $ (3% rise since December 1st ).

THB is always following teh world strongest currency, when the dollar was weak, THB has risen like crazy from over 40 to 31, than it when the USD has been strong,THB followed it and Euro e pound has slumped against the THB, after the USD small crisis in early December, the THB has followed the euro and the USD has collapsed against the Bhat 3% in just few weeks.

Result: the Baht is always the strongest currency despite the disaster of the politics,economy and just about everything in the country.

Logical conclusion: THB is the most overvalued currency in the world and time is running out ....

Just lear from the past: what happened after years of stubborness of the peg at 25 THB for 1 $ ? A collapse.

What happened after the moghtly argentine peso was pegged to the dollar at 1:1 and everybody assured it was deemed to be a perennial dollarization ? Bullshit, remember what happened in Argentina after the artificial parity was given up, right ?

The only good thing now here is that int. reserves are still high and in theory the THB could be keeped artificially high for longer...but THE LONGER you mask its real value , the SHARPER will be the decline the day when they will not able to mask it anymore....

Anywhere, anytime including in Thailand, the history has been the same, why they don t learn from the past ?

Jewelry and textile business are going to close ALL OF THEM, it is a disaster I tell you, I work in this field, Thailand cannot minimally compete anymore m ok the baht is not ALL the problem, but it is a part of the problem.

Yes, why on earth there has to be search wide swings I don't know, but it is shaping up that way, but what time frame? a day, a month, a year or more. Perhaps the latter!

[mommysboy]

Read the last 2 articles:

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/

Time is up for the THB, the only way to avoid a disaster of the economy in Thailand m the baht is to be weaken,

In the past months/couple of years it has been one of the strongest currencies in the world and in the past 2 months has risen like crazy against any world currency, INCLUDING THE US $ (3% rise since December 1st ).

THB is always following teh world strongest currency, when the dollar was weak, THB has risen like crazy from over 40 to 31, than it when the USD has been strong,THB followed it and Euro e pound has slumped against the THB, after the USD small crisis in early December, the THB has followed the euro and the USD has collapsed against the Bhat 3% in just few weeks.

Result: the Baht is always the strongest currency despite the disaster of the politics,economy and just about everything in the country.

Logical conclusion: THB is the most overvalued currency in the world and time is running out ....

Just lear from the past: what happened after years of stubborness of the peg at 25 THB for 1 $ ? A collapse.

What happened after the moghtly argentine peso was pegged to the dollar at 1:1 and everybody assured it was deemed to be a perennial dollarization ? Bullshit, remember what happened in Argentina after the artificial parity was given up, right ?

The only good thing now here is that int. reserves are still high and in theory the THB could be keeped artificially high for longer...but THE LONGER you mask its real value , the SHARPER will be the decline the day when they will not able to mask it anymore....

Anywhere, anytime including in Thailand, the history has been the same, why they don t learn from the past ?

Jewelry and textile business are going to close ALL OF THEM, it is a disaster I tell you, I work in this field, Thailand cannot minimally compete anymore m ok the baht is not ALL the problem, but it is a part of the problem.

Yes, why on earth there has to be search wide swings I don't know, but it is shaping up that way, but what time frame? a day, a month, a year or more. Perhaps the latter!

Don't know what will happen, but over the past 20 years have visited Thailand 52 times. Had intended to retire there from the UK this year, but with the current exchange rate....... Will it change???????

Andy J

I run a small business but I'm no expert. No I don't think it will change much soon. The markets have gone in to overkill with the pound. you can expect some bounce back 50-54, but then it will take a long time to recover. If however the bt does weaken to the dollar then maybe we'll get mid 50's. In my view even a collapse in the bt would take us to no more than 60.

[Bizz]

For what, this pisses me off big time as it has Obama. not because i am loosing money but to see greed is good repeating itself over and over.

This is the main thing I see these days.

Folks are not doom & gloom mainly folks are pissed

pissed off is entirely different than been pissed and i havent been pissed for 22 years

[flying]

For what, this pisses me off big time as it has Obama. not because i am loosing money but to see greed is good repeating itself over and over.

This is the main thing I see these days.

Folks are not doom & gloom mainly folks are pissed

pissed off is entirely different than been pissed and i havent been pissed for 22 years

Hahaha Sorry I forgot folks from that side of the world use that word for drunk too.

No I meant the same as you. Folks here are pissed off

[henryalleman]

This is a very difficult one no doubt about it, but it is normal to see recessions. Sometimes I get the feeling that people actually believe this is the first time this ha happened. They just different lable like the dot com crisis.

I wish I could share your optimism. I do know I will be allright but I in no way think this is anything at all like the dot com bust.

I do not think this is anything we have seen before.

you have not seen anything like this before because you never were (like me) a little boy growing up in postwar Germany. for what it's worth... today's lifestyle of Thais eeking out a living as bricklayer, plumber, etc. in rural areas would have been considered at that time "lifestyle of the rich and famous".

Naam, you are correct, I still remember an old quote from that time, " 2X fiegelen fur eine cafébone" (spelling maybe not so correct). I hope I did'nt offend you by this quote.

People of the 21th century including the Thai have no f§§§§ng idea whats meaning to be poor.

[Naam]

Naam, you are correct, I still remember an old quote from that time, " 2X fiegelen fur eine cafébone" (spelling maybe not so correct). I hope I did'nt offend you by this quote.

People of the 21th century including the Thai have no f§§§§ng idea whats meaning to be poor.

of course i am not offended. unlike some other posters i do possess a lot of humour.

p.s. your spelling is horrible Henry

[AndyBlueEyes]

As far as Baht versus dollar or the pound, any of you that are so sure of the direction these currencies are going and are willing to put your money where your mouth is, should be be able to make so much money trading in the Forex that you will not have to worry at all about the state of the economy. Anyone can speculate where the economy is going to wind up but the fact is that it is a very different world than it was back in the 30's so basing the future of this financial situation on past history is IMHO risky business. Like some of the other posters, I have always believed in living below my means so when my friends who know my financial status tell me they cannot understand why I don't have my own boat, plane, sports cars and other fancy toys, I always tell them jokingly that it because I am very thrifty so the only hobby that I feel really comfortable with is saving a lot of money. I guess my style of living may pay off now because it really doesn't matter what happens to the economy as I will continue to live very well in my very comfortable lifestyle. I think it is those who have been living marginally at their means or above their means that may be in for a big shock in the coming years.

[Nevo]

From today's Nation :-

"The treasury reserve has fallen to Bt52 billion at the end December, which is enough for paying one and a half months of salaries to government officials, the permanent secretary for Finance said Friday.

Suparat Kawatkul, the permanent secretary for Finance Ministry, disclosed the treasury reserve figure to the special House committee vetting the mid-year supplementary budget bill"

But Thailand need not worry because.....

"Suparat said the Finance Ministry could borrow from foreign banks to boost up the treasury reserve."

Not local banks then?? What happened to self sufficiency?

A few months ago this reserve was at 92 billion. We don't need to be whizzy economists to work out the state this governments finances will be in 6 months down the line.

Oh, I was forgetting about the one off B2000 pay out to workers holding an SSO card. That will be paid presumably from ......the reserves??

[flying]

From today's Nation :-

"The treasury reserve has fallen to Bt52 billion at the end December, which is enough for paying one and a half months of salaries to government officials, the permanent secretary for Finance said Friday.

Wow Is that a typo? The govt there costs 52 Billion Baht every 1.5 months?

416 Billion Baht a year to pay the workers? Or does that include some trumped up services? Like free electric etc.........

[apetley]

From today's Nation :-

"The treasury reserve has fallen to Bt52 billion at the end December, which is enough for paying one and a half months of salaries to government officials, the permanent secretary for Finance said Friday.

Wow Is that a typo? The govt there costs 52 Billion Baht every 1.5 months?

416 Billion Baht a year to pay the workers? Or does that include some trumped up services? Like free electric etc.........

I would guess that they were talking of all the government workers in Thailand of which there are at least two million.

Divide the 52 billion by 2 million gives an average monthly salary of about 17.5k bht, about average for a Thai govt worker.

What is alarming is the drop in the reserve over recent months.

It's being used for something.....I wonder what?

[cclub75]

Wow Is that a typo? The govt there costs 52 Billion Baht every 1.5 months?

416 Billion Baht a year to pay the workers? Or does that include some trumped up services? Like free electric etc.........

Yes... Go to the source : NESDB (agency who compiles GDP data).

(current prices)

Compensation gvt employees (wages)

2008

Q1.....189,94 billions

Q2.....192,20

Q3.....198,46

It means , per month (on Q3) ... 66 billions.

Overall, the total of "Government consumption expenditures"

Q1.....256, 22 billions

Q2.....261,61

Q3.....300,99

And now, the total GDP

Q1.....2 297,10 (2 trillions...)

Q2.....2 283,10

Q3.....2 319,94

So yes.... they are in deep shit.

Particularly, when you see this (taxes collection).

Edited January 31, 2009 by cclub75

[andyc2006]

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

i wager a pretty penny that you have no evidence for your claim that i am an optimist and guess what... i too believe that we are entering extremely bad economic times. although i believe that better times will return i have never voiced that belief. neither have i ever said that "economies can be forever good" and of course not that Thailand could be specifically spared.

did you perhaps make a mistake and meant another poster or is it some illegal substance that you consume which caused your incoherent posting with its baseless claims?

As my evidence, I'd submit your sarcastic "sky is falling" responses to anybody who made a negative economic forecast. From that, the natural (although possibly incorrect) conclusions are either:

1. You think everything is going to be warm & fuzzy

2. You're an Internet troll who enjoys making sarcastic posts, and whether you actually believe what you're writing doesn't matter

I went with #1, but you've shown that I chose poorly. Thanks.

[Naam]

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

i wager a pretty penny that you have no evidence for your claim that i am an optimist and guess what... i too believe that we are entering extremely bad economic times. although i believe that better times will return i have never voiced that belief. neither have i ever said that "economies can be forever good" and of course not that Thailand could be specifically spared.

did you perhaps make a mistake and meant another poster or is it some illegal substance that you consume which caused your incoherent posting with its baseless claims?

As my evidence, I'd submit your sarcastic "sky is falling" responses to anybody who made a negative economic forecast. From that, the natural (although possibly incorrect) conclusions are either:

1. You think everything is going to be warm & fuzzy

2. You're an Internet troll who enjoys making sarcastic posts, and whether you actually believe what you're writing doesn't matter

I went with #1, but you've shown that I chose poorly. Thanks.

wrong! negative comments are warranted and acceptable, nonsensical gloom&doom postings without any reference are rubbish and therefore generate ironic or sarcastic remarks. for the record... i couldn't care less what anybody thinks of me or in which category anybody thinks i belong. that applies especially to ignorants who either have problems reading or do not understand what others are posting. after their attention is drawn to the rubbish they wrote and/or the misinterpretations they made, the result is most of the time senseless bla-bla without relevant content.

[pagallim]

Read the last 2 articles:

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/

Time is up for the THB, the only way to avoid a disaster of the economy in Thailand m the baht is to be weaken,

In the past months/couple of years it has been one of the strongest currencies in the world and in the past 2 months has risen like crazy against any world currency, INCLUDING THE US $ (3% rise since December 1st ).

THB is always following teh world strongest currency, when the dollar was weak, THB has risen like crazy from over 40 to 31, than it when the USD has been strong,THB followed it and Euro e pound has slumped against the THB, after the USD small crisis in early December, the THB has followed the euro and the USD has collapsed against the Bhat 3% in just few weeks.

Result: the Baht is always the strongest currency despite the disaster of the politics,economy and just about everything in the country.

Logical conclusion: THB is the most overvalued currency in the world and time is running out ....

Just lear from the past: what happened after years of stubborness of the peg at 25 THB for 1 $ ? A collapse.

What happened after the moghtly argentine peso was pegged to the dollar at 1:1 and everybody assured it was deemed to be a perennial dollarization ? Bullshit, remember what happened in Argentina after the artificial parity was given up, right ?

The only good thing now here is that int. reserves are still high and in theory the THB could be keeped artificially high for longer...but THE LONGER you mask its real value , the SHARPER will be the decline the day when they will not able to mask it anymore....

Anywhere, anytime including in Thailand, the history has been the same, why they don t learn from the past ?

Jewelry and textile business are going to close ALL OF THEM, it is a disaster I tell you, I work in this field, Thailand cannot minimally compete anymore m ok the baht is not ALL the problem, but it is a part of the problem.

[pagallim]

Most people are now aware of the Treasury department's statement to Parliament that their reserve as at end of December was 52 Billion Baht (sufficient to pay Government employee salaries for 6 weeks). But, reassuringly, a department spokesperson said today that there was no problem as they would receive lots of money through taxes in May! That must come as a great relief to their employees, who I'm sure won't have a problem surviving 2.5 months with the potential of being unpaid!

[henryalleman]

I'm not an economist and therefore not an expert, but I just wonder, if we, who depend on of-shore income, just not wishful thinkers who hope that the Baht and the Thai economy will collapse.

[ray23]

I'm getting lost here which is nothing new for me. Is this a normal budget short fall?

From watching the Thai TV news I was left with the impression that the MP's were shocked by it.

[gregb]

As my evidence, I'd submit your sarcastic "sky is falling" responses to anybody who made a negative economic forecast. From that, the natural (although possibly incorrect) conclusions are either:

1. You think everything is going to be warm & fuzzy

2. You're an Internet troll who enjoys making sarcastic posts, and whether you actually believe what you're writing doesn't matter

I went with #1, but you've shown that I chose poorly. Thanks.

OK AJC. You get a +1 for being humorous. I got a chuckle out of the way you worded that. But I do caution you to try to let Naam have his opinion and ignore his insensitivities. For all his ego and rather brash behavior, he does have a logical bent to him, and you've got to respect that.

Cornucopians, like the computer programmers I work with, tend to believe that human ingenuity and technology will overcome nature. It won't, but everyone needs to reach that conclusion on their own. And starting a war with Naam, while entertaining for the rest of us, won't be useful for this thread. (***)

The coming economic crash is an inevitable result of our common failed culture, and we need to come to grips with this. It can't be restored, the same way the Roman Empire couldn't be restored despite the wishes of the people at the time. We will all be poor, and we will probably go to war rather than accept this. Let's not start the war now amongst ourselves, but try and concentrate on how to recognize the early warning signs of the events that will lead to our demise.

For that, I appreciate Naam's input, as he provides a very needed component in a discussion. He's not the only one out there that has the opinion he expresses, and his willingness to share his viewpoints is important to helping us understand the collective wisdom of the masses. I for one, would like to hear more from him on his predictions for the future. The fact that I probably won't agree with them doesn't diminish the fact that they are important to hear so I can get a better feel for what others think.

For me, I don't say the sky is falling. I simply say our belief that the sky was so high in the first place was an illusion.

** I for one, work with several cornucopians at the office, who I would classify in a similar category with Naam. They are computer programmers, and believe that it is through their own ingenuity that they have acquired what they've got. This is actually a disease of western culture that has spread throughout most of us. True, individual effort makes a small difference in this world, but not much. Most of it is luck, and what the environment gives to you. Before getting into a pissing contest with anyone, I urge all sides to be humble, and recognize that anybody's wisdom (including my own) doesn't mean much. You are where you're at today because of where you were born, and the luck life threw your way. Western culture, that says we earn a better life for ourselves, is a true fairy tale (stealing a phrase from Naam's words) that ignores the truth about nature. It has worked for the past century only because we have had huge deposits of fossil energy to exploit. Soon, that will be gone, and our narratives will change back to recognizing the importance of living within our means, and individual effort will take on the small supporting role it always has throughout history.

[Mali1964]

Its Saturday you know??

Get out ya favourite beer wine or Whiskey an chill until Monday this post is burnin out my e mail inbox lol.

[BigSnake]

I think the Thais people will find away around this mess and press onward, slow but show. The BOT contiue to keep a tight string on the Baht and everything else that matter for the country to move fwd, with all the backlash of the Airport closing by the PAD tourists contiue to flock here, Why(?) just take a look at Thailand's neighbors, now be for real how many of you want to invest/travel/visit or advise family of friends to invest/tour Laos, Burma, Cambodia.

[AlexLah]

Again my compliments for Gregb, I like your postings.

Anyway as you were saying you are interested in what others think, I have the following thinking when so many times people say: History repeats itself, why don't they learn from it.

History does not repeat itself, people repeat history, you bet those peeps do learn from history.

Or am I sounding a bit too much like those conspiracy peeps?

[Naam]

I for one, work with several cornucopians at the office, who I would classify in a similar category with Naam. They are computer programmers, and believe that it is through their own ingenuity that they have acquired what they've got. This is actually a disease of western culture that has spread throughout most of us. True, individual effort makes a small difference in this world, but not much. Most of it is luck, and what the environment gives to you.

Greg, i [not so] humbly beg to disagree although i admit that the essence of your posting applies partly to me. half of my professional career i spent as the right man at the right time in the right job and the right environment. but just like me there were hundreds of others, with perhaps the same qualifications in the same or similar environment and with the same chances. however, the majority of the others did not put in the same gruelling efforts the successful ones did. the majority did not work 7 days a week and an average of 14 hours a day but preferred to draw their generous salaries and perks, enjoyed life and were content with whatever little they achieved because they had no set target. said majority was not able to retire at age 46 except those who inherited a bundle of money.

to sum it up: if you think that "individual effort makes a small difference in this world" then you have not experienced "this world" too much. i claim that individual efforts make all the difference. applying individual efforts starts already when you study and decide going for a master's in only one or in two subjects. extra efforts are needed later when taking jobs and the selection is between a mediocre career in a comfortable environment and a high-fly one in the jungle, bush, swamps or desert.