Thai Economic Crash

[flying]

for a change instead of some three liner bla-bla from fly by night "experts" a sober and comprehensive look at Thailand's economy and its near future:

Very weak Q4 – maybe as bad as it gets

However, we stick to our view that the rate of GDP contraction in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009 may be as bad as it

gets.

Ok ........... But after a quote that long can you tell us who this real non blah blah ...non fly by night expert is?

We all hope for good news but a future prediction is just a prediction.

[mommysboy]

Two interesting bits of news came my way today:

1. A Thai friend who is a civil engineer and has worked for the same firm for 17 years was laid off, along with a dozen others, just yesterday. Most of the projects they were working on have been suspended indefinitely.

2. My lease on the Bangkok condo is up for renewal. With very little negotiation on my part, my landlord reduced the monthly rent by ALMOST HALF, a considerable amount in a luxury high rise. He works for JP Morgan and knows what is bound to happen to the Thai economy, he says just a matter of time.

Your landlord sounds like a bit of an idiot, or maybe just a poor negotiation skills.

Yes and there isn't going to be a recession, and condo prices will rise 10% and GDP will grow 20% this year alone, and the bt isn't overvalued, and........

GIVE US A FREAKIN BREAK AND GET REAL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Enjibenji]

Not too shabby under prevailing circumstances. Here's to a soft landing.

i was thinking the same, provided that global conditions do not extremely deteriorate. that they will deteriorate more goes without saying.

On Oanda FXTrade, 1 USD = 35.1 baht

from reading that report, it said that the baht will weaken to 1 USD = 36 baht at the end of the year. That's only a 2 baht increase for americans.

what does that mean in terms of GBP -> THB then? Am i right in thinking that, by the end of this year, if circumstances didn't have any major changes, 1 GBP will be around 53 baht?

Not that great, hope i'm wrong

Edited February 4, 2009 by Enjibenji

[Naam]

Ok ........... But after a quote that long can you tell us who this real non blah blah ...non fly by night expert is?

We all hope for good news but a future prediction is just a prediction.

i could but i won't. it also should be clear that any detailed and up-to-date (see the latest figures) research, like the one i posted, involves the work of dozens of people and cannot be accomplished by a single person be he/she an expert or not. calling it a prediction indicates that you have not read it. unfortunately it is not available as video clip on youtube

by the way, the news and forecasts of this research do not comprise "good news" only but mainly rational conclusions based on facts.

[Naam]

Not too shabby under prevailing circumstances. Here's to a soft landing.

i was thinking the same, provided that global conditions do not extremely deteriorate. that they will deteriorate more goes without saying.

On Oanda FXTrade, 1 USD = 35.1 baht

from reading that report, it said that the baht will weaken to 1 USD = 36 baht at the end of the year. That's only a 2 baht increase for americans.

what does that mean in terms of GBP -> THB then? Am i right in thinking that, by the end of this year, if circumstances didn't have any major changes, 1 GBP will be around 53 baht?

Not that great, hope i'm wrong

that depends on how the exchange rate USD/GBP will be by the end of this year and is not depending on THB/USD.

[Naam]

An outstanding report Naam, where was the data generated?

Asia economic research team of one of my banks Ray.

[ray23]

Thnks Naam your right if you don't really read it you won't get it is not somehitng you can scan. First time I ve seen it all put in one package instead of bits and pieces. If you really want to understand worth the effort you want to play debate don't bother. Reality really messes up debates.

[quiksilva]

Very interesting Naam, thanks for sharing.

[Heng]

Reducing a couple of rental contracts by 10-15% today and tomorrow. Also shortening their terms from 5 years each to 1 year. Gent's agreement not to raise rents until the econ. gets visibly better (basically if I randomly drop by and they seem to be in too good a mood).

[Naam]

for a few minutes i was considering to pep up the report to match the expectations and standards of some of the resident TV economic experts such as

-a youtube clip showing farangs being clubbed to deaths, grilled on open fire and eaten by hungry natives in Isaan,

-a picture of empty Fort Knox with the camera focussing on the pallet on which Thailand's gold reserves used to sit,

-a true report from an unknown blogger proving that fractional banking cannot be practised in Thailand as the existence of Thai banks is nothing but an illusion,

-picture of a money changer at Pattaya Beach Road handing over huge bundles of devalued Baht to each Farang changing a single Pound, Dollar or Euro,

-the birth certificate of Bernanke issued on a far away planet in alien script (with correct translation in Sanskrit and Thai),

-evidence (with Bible quotes) that the setup of the European Union is the work of Satan who's intentions are to abolish all fiat Baht and replace it by an alloy of gold, silver melted with hellish charcoal in order to put Thaksin back in power.

i had some more ideas but... i was told that dinner is served

[midas]

-a youtube clip showing farangs being clubbed to deaths, grilled on open fire and eaten by hungry natives in Isaan,

Words spoken in jest ?

When I was in Sisaket last week and in someones home

I was about to happily tuck into some dish with rice..........but I was

told not to eat it by my companion because it was rat meat !

[ray23]

Bad guage of the economy, not unusual at all for people to eat Rat in Issan. I have tried the dog but, never ate the rat that I know of. But, then I have eaten fried bugs in Pattaya. Funny I didn't think it was as much of a treat as the bar girls did.

[henryalleman]

Bad guage of the economy, not unusual at all for people to eat Rat in Issan. I have tried the dog but, never ate the rat that I know of. But, then I have eaten fried bugs in Pattaya. Funny I didn't think it was as much of a treat as the bar girls did.

In some parts of my country musk-rats, they call them water-rabbit(waterkonijn) are seen as an delicatessen, even served in first class restaurants.

[Mali1964]

-a youtube clip showing farangs being clubbed to deaths, grilled on open fire and eaten by hungry natives in Isaan,

Can we have the link if so true?? BS me thinks, I live & spend a lot of time with the Issarn natives including sleeping out in the fields at night when our Tractor is working the harvest they tend to cook Rat or Fish & even buy me a beer or 2,great people why you flame them now i know maybe they had ideas for me to be on the menu @ 110 kilo i'd go around a lot of hungry people .

Yes i was asked to give the Rat a la carte ago i try most things at least once & that once was enough for me

[ray23]

Same with dog and bugs enough.

Isn't there a important Thailand economic report on reserves due to today from the BOT?

[andyc2006]

for a few minutes i was considering to pep up the report to match the expectations and standards of some of the resident TV economic experts such as

-a youtube clip showing farangs being clubbed to deaths, grilled on open fire and eaten by hungry natives in Isaan,

-a picture of empty Fort Knox with the camera focussing on the pallet on which Thailand's gold reserves used to sit,

-a true report from an unknown blogger proving that fractional banking cannot be practised in Thailand as the existence of Thai banks is nothing but an illusion,

-picture of a money changer at Pattaya Beach Road handing over huge bundles of devalued Baht to each Farang changing a single Pound, Dollar or Euro,

-the birth certificate of Bernanke issued on a far away planet in alien script (with correct translation in Sanskrit and Thai),

-evidence (with Bible quotes) that the setup of the European Union is the work of Satan who's intentions are to abolish all fiat Baht and replace it by an alloy of gold, silver melted with hellish charcoal in order to put Thaksin back in power.

i had some more ideas but... i was told that dinner is served

You forgot to include your picture of the falling sky.

[Naam]

You forgot to include your picture of the falling sky.

[johnwills]

Naam's chart was interesting, I was surprised by the expected export figures for the next few years(higher than I imagined). I was wondering if anyone had a chart that showed which regions/countries they expect to export to and what value of exports etc.

[bingobongo]

An outstanding report Naam, where was the data generated?

Asia economic research team of one of my banks Ray.

your asian economic team at a bank? are these the same visionaries that said asia would decouple from the global mess?

let me guess, "your" asian economic research team consists of:

- fortune teller (general trends analyst)

- som tham seller (commodities analyst)

- tuk tuk driver (oil and gas analyst)

- your proctologist (health care analyst)

come on naam, i thought you trekkies/klingons were brilliant, and visionary.......

Edited February 10, 2009 by bingobongo

[JimsKnight]

for a few minutes i was considering to pep up the report to match the expectations and standards of some of the resident TV economic experts such as

-a youtube clip showing farangs being clubbed to deaths, grilled on open fire and eaten by hungry natives in Isaan,

-a picture of empty Fort Knox with the camera focussing on the pallet on which Thailand's gold reserves used to sit,

-a true report from an unknown blogger proving that fractional banking cannot be practised in Thailand as the existence of Thai banks is nothing but an illusion,

-picture of a money changer at Pattaya Beach Road handing over huge bundles of devalued Baht to each Farang changing a single Pound, Dollar or Euro,

-the birth certificate of Bernanke issued on a far away planet in alien script (with correct translation in Sanskrit and Thai),

-evidence (with Bible quotes) that the setup of the European Union is the work of Satan who's intentions are to abolish all fiat Baht and replace it by an alloy of gold, silver melted with hellish charcoal in order to put Thaksin back in power.

i had some more ideas but... i was told that dinner is served

LOL!

Naams on form as usual, kind of like the conductor leading the band on SS Titanic

And the band played on!

Let's hear it for the Naamstar!

[Naam]

Naams on form as usual, kind of like the conductor leading the band on SS Titanic And the band played on! Let's hear it for the Naamstar!

you misinterprete my intentions oh honourable and brave Knight. in my [not so] opinion i don't underestimate the crisis we are facing and neither do i underestimate its potential consequences. what i tried is drawing attention in an exaggerated way to the exaggerations of a bunch of gloom&doomers who think the sky will be falling.

[Naam]

An outstanding report Naam, where was the data generated?

Asia economic research team of one of my banks Ray.

your asian economic team at a bank? are these the same visionaries that said asia would decouple from the global mess?

come on naam, i thought you trekkies/klingons were brilliant, and visionary.......

i posted the research without any comments from my side as it contains (unlike the usual youtube clips, citations from blogspots or a few stupid pictures pointing to global conspiracies) a wealth of facts and figures concerning Thailand's economy. drawing any conclusions is up to the individual who digests the facts disregarding the conclusions presented by the research team. besides, i am not aware that any of the research i read mentioned a decoupling of Asia as far as the global crisis is concerned. that would have been the plain stupid opinion of ignorants who have no freaking idea of macroeconomics.

we Klingons are not brilliant but brave. but we don't run away when facing problems, we fight them. none of us are visionaries nor prophets. for these kind of services and to have a good laugh (or a tired smile) we read the forecasts of the resident EX-perts.

[bingobongo]

oh naam, i can only hope and pray "your" asian economic bank team can lead the sheeple to the promised land.......by the way did LOS ever find the unicorn that craps rainbows?

save us naam, save us .......

Chinese exports, imports plunge, fanning job loss worries; experts say outlook is 'grim'

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090211/as_china_trade.html

[cclub75]

Chinese exports, imports plunge, fanning job loss worries; experts say outlook is 'grim'

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090211/as_china_trade.html

You should stop. You need a dose of orwellian TrueSpeak.

I remind you the keywords :

-the market is healthy

-and Thailand is insulated.

It's good to be good. I'm thinking about all the tiny, the rancid minds who were mocking you (and other people).

Now the reality is showing its ugly face : they were all suckers.

They were the glorious useful idiots.

Edited February 11, 2009 by cclub75

[Naam]

oh naam, i can only hope and pray "your" asian economic bank team can lead the sheeple to the promised land....

your usual deliberate assumptions, misquotings or distortions do not work in my case Bingo. i never used that expression but

quote: "...Asia economic research team of one of my banks"

to sum it up, you are not a worthy opponent but a coward and what is more disgusting quite often a liar

[Bizz]

for a few minutes i was considering to pep up the report to match the expectations and standards of some of the resident TV economic experts such as

-a youtube clip showing farangs being clubbed to deaths, grilled on open fire and eaten by hungry natives in Isaan,

-a picture of empty Fort Knox with the camera focussing on the pallet on which Thailand's gold reserves used to sit,

-a true report from an unknown blogger proving that fractional banking cannot be practised in Thailand as the existence of Thai banks is nothing but an illusion,

-picture of a money changer at Pattaya Beach Road handing over huge bundles of devalued Baht to each Farang changing a single Pound, Dollar or Euro,

-the birth certificate of Bernanke issued on a far away planet in alien script (with correct translation in Sanskrit and Thai),

-evidence (with Bible quotes) that the setup of the European Union is the work of Satan who's intentions are to abolish all fiat Baht and replace it by an alloy of gold, silver melted with hellish charcoal in order to put Thaksin back in power.

i had some more ideas but... i was told that dinner is served

It has been both interesting and informative to have read your posts of late.

I hope you continue to do so as your comments and analysis are clearly needed on thaivisa.

Mit tiefer Dankbarkeit

[Naam]

It has been both interesting and informative to have read your posts of late. I hope you continue to do so as your comments and analysis are clearly needed on thaivisa.

i am honoured Bizz. but actually i was already thinking to stop playing with some of the little boys in thaivisa and devote more time to conduct philosophical discussions with my dog

think of this Bizz:

It's good to be good. I'm thinking about all the tiny, the rancid minds who were mocking you (and other people). Now the reality is showing its ugly face : they were all suckers. They were the glorious useful idiots.

what useful discussion can you have with some "cclub75"?

Edited February 11, 2009 by Naam

[ray23]

Well this isn't being bery educational anymore. That stopped right after the economic data being put forth. So how is your dog Naam Mine got stung by a wasp, must be angry hasn't talked to me in days

[Naam]

So how is your dog Naam Mine got stung by a wasp, must be angry hasn't talked to me in days

mine tried a few days ago again to befriend a toad by pawing and licking its toxic secretion. he did not learn his lesson yet because he has done it more than once

[dseawarrior]

the thais are better equipped to survive a recession than westerners pampered by benefit systems , an inflated sense of entitlement , wallowing in self pity and the negative habit of looking for someone else to blame rather than picking themselves up and trying to start again.

thais have the one thing that is missing in the west , support systems based on family.

thais are able to start up small business ventures (market stalls , food stalls , buying and selling etc. ) without the need for compliance with the onerous regulatory requirements and employment regulations that make any small business venture in the west such a headache. i remember after the thai crash in the late nineties , wealthy business people just started having garage sales , started market stalls and just carried on , albeit at a much lower level of affluence than before.

thais have a happy go lucky entrepreneurial spirit and the ability to face hardships with a smile.

the thais may be serial stumblers , but the never seem to fall.

I think you are spot on with your observations there...