Financial Crisis

[Naam]

Well yes, but I mean the western standard of living will erode to real poverty standards and those in other countries the west might think of as poor, but aren't so terribly poor, will get really poor and who is really poor currently will starve. Food price inflation alone can do this to the bottom % of worlds population and has started already.

I don't know how far it will erode but in aggregate all of the mal-invested "wealth" created by 40 years of unrestrained credit expansion, be it in China or Wall Street, will be destroyed.

you read King World Supreme Paramount Gold Council News recently?

[cloudhopper]

you read King World Supreme Paramount Gold Council News recently?

No. But unlike what they are no doubt predicting I think the price of gold is more likely to fall, in nominal terms, unless there is an (unlikely IMO) intervening but short lived hyperinflation/currency crisis.

[Naam]

you read King World Supreme Paramount Gold Council News recently?

No. But unlike what they are no doubt predicting I think the price of gold is more likely to fall, in nominal terms, unless there is an (unlikely IMO) intervening but short lived hyperinflation/currency crisis.

bunker busters on Iran and trouble in the Straits of Hormuz would give Gold a nice boost. perhaps not lasting but at least temporarily.

[cloudhopper]

bunker busters on Iran and trouble in the Straits of Hormuz would give Gold a nice boost. perhaps not lasting but at least temporarily.

I think Churchill or someone had that theory also. I would think oil would go up way more though. And IMO this is all about oil.

Hard to predict what could happen if war breaks out. Well I just read a poll somewhere today that claimed 60% of my fellow Americans favor war with Iran. Fricken unbelievable...the military industrial complex owns the place now.

[Naam]

bunker busters on Iran and trouble in the Straits of Hormuz would give Gold a nice boost. perhaps not lasting but at least temporarily.

I think Churchill or someone had that theory also. I would think oil would go up way more though. And IMO this is all about oil.

Hard to predict what could happen if war breaks out. Well I just read a poll somewhere today that claimed 60% of my fellow Americans favor war with Iran. Fricken unbelievable...the military industrial complex owns the place now.

brain-washed by FAUX News and the like.

[mania]

the military industrial complex owns the place now.

Now?

[mccw]

Could a monetary system work where currency is created by the government by paying people an amount directly related to hours of work done? Everyone is found a job and paid for it. Private employment continues but all the unemployed must work for the state street sweeping, building etc etc. so new money created free from debt.

I see in Bristol, England, the local council has introduced the "Bristol £" available at 1-1 exchange with the GBP and spendable locally. Part of the government salaries are paid in it and taxes can be settled with it.

So why not take it a step further and make all the benefits lazy layabouts work street sweeping or helping old ladies with shopping, maybe training a bit to help out charities etc, pay them in this new currency and take the welfare off the governments borrowing requirements. Indeed why not just do this across the whole country? Sure the big retailers would sign up to accept it since they would be glad of extra revenue.

Actually what's to stop the GBP being deployed/ created in this way rather than with the chain of repayment and interest to the faceless bond market / banks who just majic the money out of the air anyway!?!

Oh yes that's right our whole system and politics is governed by the shadow elite.

This is schoolkids stuff. Have you studied any economics at all?

Care to debate the points I raised rather than just more of your standard silly baiting twaddle?

http://bristolpound.org/

[mccw]

So we must accept wests and global slide in to poverty for the masses?

what do you mean by "slide into poverty"? take a look at the majority of this planet's inhabitants. they live in poverty!

Well yes, but I mean the western standard of living will erode to real poverty standards and those in other countries the west might think of as poor, but aren't so terribly poor, will get really poor and who is really poor currently will starve. Food price inflation alone can do this to the bottom % of worlds population and has started already.

please state your reasons why western standards of living will deteriorate to real poverty standards.

The reasons being:

1) rapid global population growth

2) ever more extreme weather

3) resources being past peak mostly everything.

This leading to increased prices of everything, food, fuel, etc etc at the same time as economic stagflation or further breaking down and state bailouts , printing money. Less tax payers and greater and greater welfare + interest bills leads to further "austerity" and lowering living standards down eventually to what I would consider "real poverty".

There's still plenty of fat to be trimmed off the western gut but I'm talking about a path over coming decades. Slow managed decline or series of crashes , partial "recovery", another crash, but always on a downward curve rather than upwards.

[mccw]

To illustrate my point how things are going:

1) less than 6 months ago duel fuel household energy prices increased 30% across the board. Now I read they will increase another 10-30%

2)food prices have risen by over 30%

3) rent has increased substantially, since last year I have increased the price of a double bedroom in a shared house (about 9sqm) from 368 to 390-410£pm and that is on the cheaper side given that renting a whole house as shared would be = but + bill and tax on top. When I began renting it was more profitable the other way around. (Single rooms of under 6sqm go for around 270-300£ - 2 years ago this was £200pm)

4) how badly over burdened the NHS is - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2161869/Top-doctors-chilling-claim-The-NHS-kills-130-000-elderly-patients-year.html

5) Britons state education system gets only 40% of its school leavers 5GCSEs. (You need 5 as minimum to work in a supermarket or go on to any other education)

6) we're in economic malaise and "the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression" yet oil and many other commodities are still very high.

If by some way economy did really pick up again then the inflation would go ballistic.

[mania]

If by some way economy did really pick up again then the inflation would go ballistic.

I just read something that agreed

If or When Inflation starts (if it has not in reality already) Because many already see important daily needs items rising

Then will the FED have a problem unwinding their balance sheet without causing more disruption?

Bernanke defends Fed action

Some interesting economic cycle charts too

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/economic-cycles-and-investing/

As well as some sentiment charts

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/psy-cycle-updated/

But I really had to laugh at what he writes above his comments section

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

[yoshiwara]

If or When Inflation starts (if it has not in reality already) Because many already see important daily needs items rising

Then will the FED have a problem unwinding their balance sheet without causing more disruption?

Problem solving. That's what people in management are paid for.

As opposed to the 'woe is me' crowd.

[mania]

If or When Inflation starts (if it has not in reality already) Because many already see important daily needs items rising

Then will the FED have a problem unwinding their balance sheet without causing more disruption?

Problem solving. That's what people in management are paid for.

As opposed to the 'woe is me' crowd.

Coming from the guy who posts so much & says so little that is rather funny

[midas]

If or When Inflation starts (if it has not in reality already) Because many already see important daily needs items rising

Then will the FED have a problem unwinding their balance sheet without causing more disruption?

Problem solving. That's what people in management are paid for.

As opposed to the 'woe is me' crowd.

mmmmm….. managers…..?

You mean people like Bernie Madoff and Jon Corzine? They were “ managers “ ?

Edited October 5, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

If or When Inflation starts (if it has not in reality already) Because many already see important daily needs items rising

Then will the FED have a problem unwinding their balance sheet without causing more disruption?

Problem solving. That's what people in management are paid for.

As opposed to the 'woe is me' crowd.

mmmmm….. managers…..?

You mean people like Bernie Madoff and Jon Corzine? They were “ managers “ ?

both "managed" quite some money into their pockets. one was unlucky, the other one is still lucky.

[churchill]

If or When Inflation starts (if it has not in reality already) Because many already see important daily needs items rising

Then will the FED have a problem unwinding their balance sheet without causing more disruption?

Problem solving. That's what people in management are paid for.

As opposed to the 'woe is me' crowd.

mmmmm….. managers…..?

You mean people like Bernie Madoff and Jon Corzine? They were “ managers “ ?

both "managed" quite some money into their pockets. one was unlucky, the other one is still lucky.

Before Naam has to change his underwear yet again .. !

One of his favorite managers ..

Faber on economy, and safe havens

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Faber-on-economy-and-safe-havens-30191705.html

I think most around here are making their own decisions based on numerous views and opinions and are not paying managers to 'solve ' their problems

[midas]

Problem solving. That's what people in management are paid for.

As opposed to the 'woe is me' crowd.

mmmmm….. managers…..?

You mean people like Bernie Madoff and Jon Corzine? They were “ managers “ ?

both "managed" quite some money into their pockets. one was unlucky, the other one is still lucky.

when lannarebith said way back in this thread that to succeed in these “ markets “ you have to be able to think like a criminal I didn't realise at the time just how right he was

How to Run Your Hedge Fund From a Prison Cell

That’s right, you will tell them: They should park their money with you -- someone they can trust who, due to extenuating circumstances, won’t be able to touch it, either.

http://www.bloomberg...son-cell.html

Edited October 6, 2012 by midas

[midas]

If or When Inflation starts (if it has not in reality already) Because many already see important daily needs items rising

Then will the FED have a problem unwinding their balance sheet without causing more disruption?

Problem solving. That's what people in management are paid for.

As opposed to the 'woe is me' crowd.

Hey yoshiwara, I thought you said leave it to the managers?

This sounds like 'woe is me'.

Antonis Samaras says Greece's democracy is in danger, comparing situation to Germany's pre-war Weimar Republic

Greece is teetering on the edge of collapse with its society at risk of disintegrating unless the country's near-empty public coffers are shored up with urgent financial aid, the country's prime minister has warned.

http://www.guardian....ty-disintegrate

Actually this sounds like Hank Paulson four years ago saying if we don't get the money the world will end

Edited October 6, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

Faber

why people trust anybody who sells his "wisdom" in a monthly newsletter is beyond my grasp.

Marc Faber Limited provides investment advisory services to financial institutions, corporate clients, family offices and high net worth individuals around the world. Payments for these services can be made in cash or through soft dollar arrangements.

http://www.gloomboom...pageSPS_ID=3000

hmmmm...

[churchill]

Faber

why people trust anybody who sells his "wisdom" in a monthly newsletter is beyond my grasp.

Marc Faber Limited provides investment advisory services to financial institutions, corporate clients, family offices and high net worth individuals around the world. Payments for these services can be made in cash or through soft dollar arrangements.

http://www.gloomboom...pageSPS_ID=3000

hmmmm...

I don't see that charging has got anything to do with it .... would you trust somebody more if they didn't charge ?

There are some sites that post balanced , imo, views and updates .. such as...

http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/2012/10/off-topic-letter-to-friend.html

Posting views from Faber , Rogers , whoever are just views ......Faber gives his opinions and says he doesn't know where gold will be in 6 / 12 months but believes in the trend as does Rogers .... If you prefer to listen to Prechter .. up to you / post his opinions if you think there are worthy .....

As I said we can take advice and opinions from those that do and don't charge and make up our own minds ....

Edited October 6, 2012 by churchill

[churchill]

Rogers and Faber discuss Bangkok nightlife ....

Naam put ear plugs in for for 30 seconds .. to avoid advert offending material ...

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000120365#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMTIwMzczIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoiTlh4UUYxMkUvR2xEWG8zeDhVT1JVZz09IiwidlRhYiI6ImluZm8iLCJ2UGFnZSI6IiIsImdOYXYiOlsiwqBMYXRlc3QgVmlkZW8iXSwiZ1NlY3QiOiJBTEwiLCJnUGFnZSI6IjEiLCJzeW0iOiIiLCJzZWFyY2giOiIifQ==

[Naam]

crisis? what crisis?

The Picasso masterpiece is one of several renderings of his muse Marie-Thérèse Walter and considered by art experts to be one of his most important works. It carries a pre-sale estimate from $35 million to up to $50 million ahead of the November 5 sale at Sotheby's.

[MJP]

crisis? what crisis?

The Picasso masterpiece is one of several renderings of his muse Marie-Thérèse Walter and considered by art experts to be one of his most important works. It carries a pre-sale estimate from $35 million to up to $50 million ahead of the November 5 sale at Sotheby's.

It's a crisis of the poor not of the rich.

[midas]

Faber

why people trust anybody who sells his "wisdom" in a monthly newsletter is beyond my grasp.

Marc Faber Limited provides investment advisory services to financial institutions, corporate clients, family offices and high net worth individuals around the world. Payments for these services can be made in cash or through soft dollar arrangements.

http://www.gloomboom...pageSPS_ID=3000

hmmmm...

I don't see that charging has got anything to do with it .... would you trust somebody more if they didn't charge ?

There are some sites that post balanced , imo, views and updates .. such as...

http://theshortsideo...-to-friend.html

Posting views from Faber , Rogers , whoever are just views ......Faber gives his opinions and says he doesn't know where gold will be in 6 / 12 months but believes in the trend as does Rogers .... If you prefer to listen to Prechter .. up to you / post his opinions if you think there are worthy .....

As I said we can take advice and opinions from those that do and don't charge and make up our own minds ....

That S&P graph is absolutely stunning! (Given the state of the world economies and the real threat of a serious Middle East war which wasn't there in 2006 either)

[Naam]

crisis? what crisis?

The Picasso masterpiece is one of several renderings of his muse Marie-Thérèse Walter and considered by art experts to be one of his most important works. It carries a pre-sale estimate from $35 million to up to $50 million ahead of the November 5 sale at Sotheby's.

It's a crisis of the poor not of the rich.

correct! but most of the "poor rich", with net asset values between 5 and 10 million dollars, are concerned too.

[cheeryble]

That S&P graph is absolutely stunning!

I presume you mean the graph showing "resistance" at about 1540?

You did notice the P/E ratios I presume.....they're half now what they were in 2000. That's very pleasant for companies and investors.

BTW the nature of indexes is flat resistance lines get broken and the curve numerically gathers pace.

As for the last leg up.....take a look. Are you aware Marc Faber called an end to the bull (taking lessons from Cousin Nouriel) in mid 2009. Missed a 40% rise........... I say "ouch!" on behalf of his followers.

Edited October 7, 2012 by cheeryble

[Naam]

I presume you mean the graph showing "resistance" at about 1540?

You did notice the P/E ratios I presume.....they're half now what they were in 2000. That's very pleasant for companies and investors.

BTW the nature of indexes is flat resistance lines get broken and the curve numerically gathers pace.

As for the last leg up.....take a look. Are you aware Marc Faber called an end to the bull (taking lessons from Cousin Nouriel) in mid 2009. Missed a 40% rise........... I say "ouch!" on behalf of his followers.

once appointed "guru" a guru will remain a guru no matter how much rubbish he/she excretes. important is that his/her rubbish is published on CNBC or Bloomberg.

recently and by chance i looked at the track record of "Lovely Abby". didn't trust my eyes when i saw 31% true, 69% false.

[Naam]

Cohen: Think Long-Term

July 27, 2012 by The Guru Investor

Goldman Sachs’ Abby Joseph Cohen says many investors have become too short-sighted, and says that “long-term, there are some very good values out there.” Cohen tells Bloomberg that a lot of the uncertainty out there is already priced into the market, and she thinks stocks are priced to return 8% to 10% per year for the longer term. She thinks the U.S. is still in a slow recovery and doesn’t see an economic “Armageddon” coming, and thus thinks that bond yields won’t get much lower. She also talks about the outlook for Corporate America.

only gurus realise that "bond yields won't get much lower"

[midas]

That S&P graph is absolutely stunning!

I presume you mean the graph showing "resistance" at about 1540?

You did notice the P/E ratios I presume.....they're half now what they were in 2000. That's very pleasant for companies and investors.

BTW the nature of indexes is flat resistance lines get broken and the curve numerically gathers pace.

As for the last leg up.....take a look. Are you aware Marc Faber called an end to the bull (taking lessons from Cousin Nouriel) in mid 2009. Missed a 40% rise........... I say "ouch!" on behalf of his followers.

No because world economic conditions today compared to 2000 is like chalk and cheese.

in 2000 USA, Europe, Japan were not swimming in debt ( without any answers as to how those

debts are going to be paid off) and you didn't have the unemployment levels that you have now

If you have expectations of S&P breaking through the resistance as you put it please explain

why has the Japanese stock market continued sideways for 20 years when things were not

even half as bad globally as they are today?

Plus you only have to see the extremely negative sentiment by the small investor who no

longer wishes to participate

Despite Gains, Many Flee Stock Market

http://online.wsj.co...21461868.html

Edited October 7, 2012 by midas

[MJP]

crisis? what crisis?

The Picasso masterpiece is one of several renderings of his muse Marie-Thérèse Walter and considered by art experts to be one of his most important works. It carries a pre-sale estimate from $35 million to up to $50 million ahead of the November 5 sale at Sotheby's.

It's a crisis of the poor not of the rich.

correct! but most of the "poor rich", with net asset values between 5 and 10 million dollars, are concerned too.

This is long, but it's good listening.

http://agorafinancia...son=ignore&rs=1

It's all very odd. I'm flat out at the moment with jobs stacking up. Some big stuff too.

I don't know what to make of any of it at the moment.

EDIT: Listening to it now, they're flogging a boon, so ignore.

Edited October 7, 2012 by MJP

[cheeryble]

only gurus realise that "bond yields won't get much lower"

And imagine having the prescience to foresee a longterm stockmarket return about the same as the historic average.....