Bottom Pickers? Someday It Will Be Time To Buy.

[Jingthing]

Are you smart enough to pick the bottom of the market? I thought not. Now we are in bear market rally. How do you know that for sure? You don't.

Just wanted to inject one bit of good news amid the gloom that I got from the idiot box.

History shows that for many years AFTER a huge market decline, the market does BETTER than average. Expected returns of 7 to 15 percent annually. If you are younger you should be BUYING STOCKS for the long haul.

[neverdie]

Are you smart enough to pick the bottom of the market? I thought not. Now we are in bear market rally. How do you know that for sure? You don't.

Just wanted to inject one bit of good news amid the gloom that I got from the idiot box.

History shows that for many years AFTER a huge market decline, the market does BETTER than average. Expected returns of 7 to 15 percent annually. If you are younger you should be BUYING STOCKS for the long haul.

Nearly all the way through this crisis there has been really good returns out there....you just need to know where to look. There is no time to sleep on the job!

As for picking the bottom.....I thought for a minute you were talking about something else JINGTHING....I thought you were going to horrify me

[Jingthing]

Nearly all the way through this crisis there has been really good returns out there

For short sellers? Get real. Most people who have been in market in general recently have been serially raped.

[Pdaz]

Bought some financials (FTSE) a week ago.. been up everyday since... 30% so far and still climbing.. Good time to pick 'bluechips' for the long term...

[OriginalPoster]

Bought some financials (FTSE) a week ago.. been up everyday since... 30% so far and still climbing.. Good time to pick 'bluechips' for the long term...

There are quite a number of people on internet forums who have never made a bad trade and have been making massive amounts of money off the market over the past year, just as they had in each preceding year.

[neverdie]

Nearly all the way through this crisis there has been really good returns out there

For short sellers? Get real. Most people who have been in market in general recently have been serially raped.

You need to open your mind my little bottom picking friend. You need to think about the one thing that always has profits to be made, especially in times of economic turmoil....

[neverdie]

Bought some financials (FTSE) a week ago.. been up everyday since... 30% so far and still climbing.. Good time to pick 'bluechips' for the long term...

There are quite a number of people on internet forums who have never made a bad trade and have been making massive amounts of money off the market over the past year, just as they had in each preceding year.

Yes that is typical of these sort of things, but I've never understood the people that hand over their life savings to financial planners and bodies of people who make incorrect decisions time and time again. Its not rocket science & yes I've lost some money on shares but as an Australian who not so long ago was getting about 0.98 AUD for $1 USD, I couldnt help but notice that this was a strange event and surely something that couldnt last long at all, theres nothing difficult about swapping one currency for another and waiting for movement before changing again......times are changing people & you need to waltz with them. Any Aussie with cash investment that wasnt moving currency last June/July wasnt using the ole grey matter outside the box looking at the grand scale of things.

Where will you be in 10 years time....still stacking shelves at the local 7 eleven?

[OriginalPoster]

Bought some financials (FTSE) a week ago.. been up everyday since... 30% so far and still climbing.. Good time to pick 'bluechips' for the long term...

There are quite a number of people on internet forums who have never made a bad trade and have been making massive amounts of money off the market over the past year, just as they had in each preceding year.

Yes that is typical of these sort of things, but I've never understood the people that hand over their life savings to financial planners and bodies of people who make incorrect decisions time and time again. Its not rocket science & yes I've lost some money on shares but as an Australian who not so long ago was getting about 0.98 AUD for $1 USD, I couldnt help but notice that this was a strange event and surely something that couldnt last long at all, theres nothing difficult about swapping one currency for another and waiting for movement before changing again......times are changing people & you need to waltz with them. Any Aussie with cash investment that wasnt moving currency last June/July wasnt using the ole grey matter outside the box looking at the grand scale of things.

Where will you be in 10 years time....still stacking shelves at the local 7 eleven?

Maybe you got out of the A$ when you say that you did, but somehow I'm skeptical that you have the ability to time currency movements as well as you claim. There aren't a lot of people who make a living off Forex, and even fewer who do so and get their jollies by bragging about it on the internet and denigrating others for not being as wealthy as they claim to be.

Edited March 19, 2009 by OriginalPoster

[Pdaz]

Was a no-brainer for me... Too much cash sitting in what was a high interest account - But now earning nothing cos of interst rate falls

Better to use some of it by buying stocks at close to the 'bottom'.. They may go down again in the next few weeks/Months but over a 1 -2 year timescale they can only gain.. Once the economy starts to improve I'll sell and put the cash back into a less risky investment... I was lucky as I had zero funds invested in the stock market when it crashed a few Months back.. Now I'm getting in while it's down but I don't intend to stay longer than I need to. Last time I made money on stocks was the day after 9/11. I bought a shed load then sold 6 Months later when things had improved.. Apart from after disasters and stock market tumbles I prefer real estate for long term investment. But happy to have a punt on riskier investments for short term gain if nothing else is around.

[JimsKnight]

Let's just hope that what we've got on the stock market right now, for you who've already bought, isn't a dead-cat-bounce.

A situation where a stock market recovery suddenly plummets down again!

[norrona]

theres an old saying in this business....

bottom pickers end up with crap on their fingers

[Naam]

Bought some financials (FTSE) a week ago.. been up everyday since... 30% so far and still climbing.. Good time to pick 'bluechips' for the long term...

did the same, one of it (XS0159150720) is up 50% in 5 trading days. but unlike you i don't believe in long term. tomorrow profits will be realised and added to King Cash.

[samuibeachcomber]

Bought some financials (FTSE) a week ago.. been up everyday since... 30% so far and still climbing.. Good time to pick 'bluechips' for the long term...

There are quite a number of people on internet forums who have never made a bad trade and have been making massive amounts of money off the market over the past year, just as they had in each preceding year.

Yes that is typical of these sort of things, but I've never understood the people that hand over their life savings to financial planners and bodies of people who make incorrect decisions time and time again. Its not rocket science & yes I've lost some money on shares but as an Australian who not so long ago was getting about 0.98 AUD for $1 USD, I couldnt help but notice that this was a strange event and surely something that couldnt last long at all, theres nothing difficult about swapping one currency for another and waiting for movement before changing again......times are changing people & you need to waltz with them. Any Aussie with cash investment that wasnt moving currency last June/July wasnt using the ole grey matter outside the box looking at the grand scale of things.

Where will you be in 10 years time....still stacking shelves at the local 7 eleven?

god your so full of yourself.

[neverdie]

Bought some financials (FTSE) a week ago.. been up everyday since... 30% so far and still climbing.. Good time to pick 'bluechips' for the long term...

There are quite a number of people on internet forums who have never made a bad trade and have been making massive amounts of money off the market over the past year, just as they had in each preceding year.

Yes that is typical of these sort of things, but I've never understood the people that hand over their life savings to financial planners and bodies of people who make incorrect decisions time and time again. Its not rocket science & yes I've lost some money on shares but as an Australian who not so long ago was getting about 0.98 AUD for $1 USD, I couldnt help but notice that this was a strange event and surely something that couldnt last long at all, theres nothing difficult about swapping one currency for another and waiting for movement before changing again......times are changing people & you need to waltz with them. Any Aussie with cash investment that wasnt moving currency last June/July wasnt using the ole grey matter outside the box looking at the grand scale of things.

Where will you be in 10 years time....still stacking shelves at the local 7 eleven?

Maybe you got out of the A$ when you say that you did, but somehow I'm skeptical that you have the ability to time currency movements as well as you claim. There aren't a lot of people who make a living off Forex, and even fewer who do so and get their jollies by bragging about it on the internet and denigrating others for not being as wealthy as they claim to be.

Original Poster,

Sorry you feel that I was bragging about being wealthy because I don't consider myself wealthy & I'm not sure how you read that from what I was saying. As far as having the ability to time currency movements perfectly, that isnt what I claimed to do but the Aussie sat high floating around 95 cents USD for long enough to make me want to move & it was near enuf to 98 when I jumped, things have been going bad for quite some time in the USA despite the initial denials I merely chose to move then. Even if the Aussie had crossed the $1 barrier and gone to $1.05, I couldnt have given two hoots, especially when it dropped at one point was testing around the 60 cents mark in October last year.

By the way, we are talking about the Aussie sitting high for months, not days & further more to that it was still possible to obtain good cash investments in banks which were later guaranteed by the Aust Govt & obtain long term deposits over 8% as late as August, September last year.

When large multinationals & institutions like freddie and fanny, AIG and others were smoking, were people seriously burrying their heads in the sand, these smoking guns were smoking for a long time. I also sold again before it bottomed & some predict that the Aussie could again and despite what others were saying to me I maybe went a bit early there too as some are saying the Aussie will go lower again in a few months, so perhaps I sold too early, my only point being there are still oportunities out there.

Please show me where I was bragging about being wealthy or denigrating others & I will retract what I said, I simply pointed out a FACTUAL matter in all of this, there are people out there making good money at the moment and that doesnt necessarily mean hanging your goolies out to the demons to get it.

As Naam has stated previously cash is king at the moment & will be for some time. People get all worked up about interest rates & you don't need to be a rocket scientist to work out rates go up and rates go down, it is also a no brainer that interest rates will come into play again when the powers to be need to start controlling inflation or an even faster moving evil - hyperinflation.

Anyway, my only comments were think outside the box a little bit, don't have some biscuit munching company man controlling your money and moving where he thinks he will gain the best commissions & don't worry too much about hitting the exact highs and lows of every point as safety is far more important than exact moments in time.

Ohh and there are absolutely shitttttloads of people out there making money in currency trading, in fact the figures for currency trading have gone thru the roof in the last few months, I had something here on that, if I can find it I will repost it for you.

Anyway, back to you, no doubt you want to flame me further, but I havent said anything incorrect or untrue. By the way, I don't have a job & do rely on currency & investment to get by, but I certainly do NOT consider myself an expert.

Edited March 19, 2009 by neverdie

[sanmiguel]

There are quite a number of people on internet forums who have never made a bad trade and have been making massive amounts of money off the market over the past year, just as they had in each preceding year.

IMO its best not to believe the acquaintance down the pub, bargirls or people on internet forums.

Edited March 19, 2009 by sanmiguel

[Naam]

There are quite a number of people on internet forums who have never made a bad trade and have been making massive amounts of money off the market over the past year, just as they had in each preceding year.

IMO its best not to believe the acquaintance down the pub, bargirls or people on internet forums.

and neither is it advisable to believe the claim of a Brit that he sold real estate in a fascist eastern european state

[Heng]

For real estate, it's not too difficult as there are always plenty of foreclosures to pick from. If you have your own construction/renovation crew, I dare say it's easy as som tum.

[Jingthing]

For real estate, it's not too difficult as there are always plenty of foreclosures to pick from. If you have your own construction/renovation crew, I dare say it's easy as som tum.

Yes, that would be good for the long term. But flipping in this current market is a non starter and finding quality renters (people with secure jobs) is a problem as well.

[Naam]

For real estate, it's not too difficult as there are always plenty of foreclosures to pick from. If you have your own construction/renovation crew, I dare say it's easy as som tum.

and your point is?

[TonySoprano]

this economical climate, and Thailand in general, is one of the worst places in the world to try to flip real estate, and one of the worst returns on investment for rental property. you can rent places here monthly for 1/250th of the property's value to own --> LOL.

sure there will always be niches and people who do better than the average investor.

now, someone will point out how much money they made via real estate investing from 2001-2008, of course it disregards the fact that you could have made even more investing in several other places. sort of how people pat themselves on the back for buying a stock that went up 10% annually, when the markets went up 13% during the same years.

that said, real estate will always go up long term if you invest moderately, and its a safe place to money. the basics of real estate investing are so simple that every dumbass you meet with some extra money thinks he is the next donald trump.

[lannarebirth]

Are you smart enough to pick the bottom of the market? I thought not. Now we are in bear market rally. How do you know that for sure? You don't.

Just wanted to inject one bit of good news amid the gloom that I got from the idiot box.

History shows that for many years AFTER a huge market decline, the market does BETTER than average. Expected returns of 7 to 15 percent annually. If you are younger you should be BUYING STOCKS for the long haul.

It's always a matter of looking at Absolute Returns, in my book. Except in Bull Markets, rising US equities are the other side of the long $USD trade. Capital Gains AND currency appreciation would be optimal IMO. Speaking for myself, I'm not in that mode yet. I'm still in asset stailization mode.

Edited March 20, 2009 by lannarebirth

[teacup]

This week seems like an 'Obama" bounce a little bit of positive, for what a couple of weeks ago looked all doom and gloom. People forget quick, Lehman brothers gone, Citibank-shakky, bailed out, but will investors stay with them? Seem like a short recovery before the fall.

One day Recession, the next, the bulls are back.. Think there is more to come. Therefore this has been a great trading year, markets will climb up the staircase but they all come down the elevator shaft.

So I’m always ready for the short side...and trading "options" is the way to go at the moment.

Until I can see a teacup bottom, no way I will buy and hold the real stocks

[sanmiguel]

There are quite a number of people on internet forums who have never made a bad trade and have been making massive amounts of money off the market over the past year, just as they had in each preceding year.

IMO its best not to believe the acquaintance down the pub, bargirls or people on internet forums.

and neither is it advisable to believe the claim of a Brit that he sold real estate in a fascist eastern european state

Such devastating wit old man.

I gave you many links to highlight the EU's fascist ways, but you conveniently didnt reply.

[lannarebirth]

AAII Sentiment Survey Results as of 3/18/2009

........... 3/18/2009 ...... Long-Term

......................................Average

-------------------------------------------

Bullish .... 45.06% ........ 39%

Neutral ... 16.67% ........ 31%

Bearish .. 38.27% ........ 30%

Two weeks ago it was 18.92% bullish.

[PattayaParent]

<SNIP> sort of how people pat themselves on the back for buying a stock that went up 10% annually, when the markets went up 13% during the same years.

But surely the 'market' going up 13% is an aggregate of the stocks that went down and the stocks that went up?

So a stock that went up 10% in a market that went up 13% is better than a stock that went down 10% in a market that went up 13%, no?

[Heng]

For real estate, it's not too difficult as there are always plenty of foreclosures to pick from. If you have your own construction/renovation crew, I dare say it's easy as som tum.

and your point is?

Fairly self explanatory, even in bold font.

:D

[Heng]

For real estate, it's not too difficult as there are always plenty of foreclosures to pick from. If you have your own construction/renovation crew, I dare say it's easy as som tum.

Yes, that would be good for the long term. But flipping in this current market is a non starter and finding quality renters (people with secure jobs) is a problem as well.

IMO flipping in any market isn't a good idea, unless you're doing it on a cash only basis. It's too much like a trip to the casino otherwise.

[Heng]

this economical climate, and Thailand in general, is one of the worst places in the world to try to flip real estate, and one of the worst returns on investment for rental property. you can rent places here monthly for 1/250th of the property's value to own --> LOL.

On the plus side, it's virtually tax free, even over generations. So even if your return is only 6-7%, it still is a nice balance to local fixed instruments and accounts which have lower returns and are all taxable, and even offshore accounts with similar returns, tax free, but little chance for capital gains.

One constant that IMO holds true in most places, and certainly here....the minority that employs others and continually widens the gap between the haves and have nots as opposed to the masses who typically spend their lives working for said minority, the difference is that the latter typically have very little or no 100% equity real estate assets. They tend to stay a little more liquid, and understandably, that liquid often drains away or evaporates over the course of a lifetime.

[TonySoprano]

this economical climate, and Thailand in general, is one of the worst places in the world to try to flip real estate, and one of the worst returns on investment for rental property. you can rent places here monthly for 1/250th of the property's value to own --> LOL.

On the plus side, it's virtually tax free, even over generations. So even if your return is only 6-7%, it still is a nice balance to local fixed instruments and accounts which have lower returns and are all taxable, and even offshore accounts with similar returns, tax free, but little chance for capital gains.

One constant that IMO holds true in most places, and certainly here....the minority that employs others and continually widens the gap between the haves and have nots as opposed to the masses who typically spend their lives working for said minority, the difference is that the latter typically have very little or no 100% equity real estate assets. They tend to stay a little more liquid, and understandably, that liquid often drains away or evaporates over the course of a lifetime.

its not the real estate, its the land. houses crumble and wither.

good luck passing on a condo for x generations.

[TonySoprano]

i actually choose to pay off my parents home which i will get in the future instead of buying a condo here. my comments in this thread about real estate were with condo ownership in mind.

if you are married then i guess you can go down that road... though clearly, most should not.