Stronger Baht/usd

[aaaaaa]

I agree, Rav, the fiber of the American society will not allow it to play a second role. It will fight on whatever front it feels necessary.

Not exactly a nice prospect, i would say

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I like this one - "the fiber" !!! :D :D

and what that supposed to mean in this context, pray? the spirit of nation or the mood or :

fiber

5.a. Something that provides substance or texture

5.b. Essential character

5.c. Basic strength or toughness; fortitude

I assume it is one of these 3 above or blend of all... but what it is for American society exactly ?

Edited February 20, 2005 by aaaaaa

[Harmonica]

interesting discussion. so, what's the latest developments?

now Baht is rated 38.22/38.82 as I can see :

http://www.thaivisa.com/exchange_rates.0.html

does that mean dollar's improved ?

Baht closed @ 38.55 on Friday -- no this does not really mean that the dollar has improved -- actually the Baht has been hammering the Dollar for quite a long while.

But what I've been saying is that this is about to change and the hammerer will become the hammereeeeeee and will get a thorough flogging -- perhaps the reversal will come forth this coming Monday-Friday?

[Spee]

When it comes I'll be long gone and yes, Gold is what I'll hold.  Silver too! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why do you limit your options to gold and/or silver only??

What's wrong with platinum, diamonds, or other precious metals and gems??

Seems to me if you limit yourself to only two of many options, then you expose yourself to excessive risk.

[thaistick]

When it comes I'll be long gone and yes, Gold is what I'll hold.  Silver too! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why do you limit your options to gold and/or silver only??

What's wrong with platinum, diamonds, or other precious metals and gems??

Seems to me if you limit yourself to only two of many options, then you expose yourself to excessive risk.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Platinum may be a good play and there are bullion coins from many countries available,but I would avoid diamonds and other gemstones.

Gold and silver are universally recognized and an ounce of gold is an ounce of gold.Silver also has many industrial uses and think silver will appreciate more than gold percentagewise.

The markup on jewelry is enormous so I would stick to gold and silver in 24K bullion coin form.

Even diamond experts will disagree on the value of a particular diamond.Only carats or diamond weight and cut are objective in regards to the 4 C's-cut,clarity,carat,and color-while the other 2 are qualitive and subjective.

Appraisers are not independent and GIA or EGl OR GSL certificates are not guarantees that are universally recognized.

Edited February 20, 2005 by thaistick

[Spee]

You missed my point, which was gold and silver are two just two components of a very broad range of potential precious metals/gems investmets, and why are those chosen above all others? Why should they be any better (or any worse for that matter) than anything else?

As for diamonds, at least there is a standard, albeit a subjective one. And they are physical, meaning that you buy them and keep them. With diamonds, investment grade diamonds are so specific with respect to the 4-C's, that they are very easy to tell from less than investment quality diamonds. If investing, would anyone ever buy less than investment grade diamonds?

Gold, silver and other commodities can be bought in a variety of ways, such as coins, bullion, futures, etc., and each has their own pro's and con's over and above whether they go up or down. If buying physical gold or silver, what proof does the buyer have that the product is genuine?

Another point is that by investing in such a specific item like gold, you are almost assured of being the least knowledgeable person in the buying and selling transaction, not because of lack of brain power, but because of lack of information. Does one really want to invest their hard earned dollars in something where everyone they deal with will probably have more information than they do?

By all means, I don't pretend to be an expert on the subject. These are just questions and concerns that I raise when thinking about it.

When it comes I'll be long gone and yes, Gold is what I'll hold.  Silver too! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why do you limit your options to gold and/or silver only??

What's wrong with platinum, diamonds, or other precious metals and gems??

Seems to me if you limit yourself to only two of many options, then you expose yourself to excessive risk.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Platinum may be a good play and there are bullion coins from many countries available,but I would avoid diamonds and other gemstones.

Gold and silver are universally recognized and an ounce of gold is an ounce of gold.Silver also has many industrial uses and think silver will appreciate more than gold percentagewise.

The markup on jewelry is enormous so I would stick to gold and silver in 24K bullion coin form.

Even diamond experts will disagree on the value of a particular diamond.Only carats or diamond weight and cut are objective in regards to the 4 C's-cut,clarity,carat,and color-while the other 2 are qualitive and subjective.

Appraisers are not independent and GIA or EGl OR GSL certificates are not guarantees that are universally recognized.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Erwin1011]

I agree, Rav, the fiber of the American society will not allow it to play a second role. It will fight on whatever front it feels necessary.

Not exactly a nice prospect, i would say

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I like this one - "the fiber" !!! :D :D

and what that supposed to mean in this context, pray? the spirit of nation or the mood or :

fiber

5.a. Something that provides substance or texture

5.b. Essential character

5.c. Basic strength or toughness; fortitude

I assume it is one of these 3 above or blend of all... but what it is for American society exactly ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

aaaa,

You got it dot on the spot !

It is a mixture of all three. agressiveness and a need to be the first, the best, the biggest is een essential characteristic of US society. It can be a basic strenght and as such it provides substance.

[Bizz]

Makes interesting reading full text here.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...1461901,00.html

Economic Outlook: Sinking dollar could put whole world into a skid

David Smith in Davos for the Sunday Times

IN the rarefied atmosphere of Davos, amid the snow-covered Swiss mountains and the distant sound of yodelling and alpenhorn, it is easy to lose sight of more down-to-earth issues. True, the focus here tends to be on grand visions for tackling the problems of world poverty, global warming (which I shall look at soon), Aids and Africa. And, true, there has been a lot of optimism on show from politicians and business leaders on these matters. We have, however, seen plenty of occasions when words have not converted into actions.

On a down-to-earth level, there is a pressing economic question, which can be summarised, Sound of Music like, as: What shall we do with a problem like the dollar? This week’s G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in London, which will be attended by the Chinese, will examine the issue. It is unlikely, however, to offer a solution.

Also:

http://en.ce.cn/Markets/Currencies/200501/...1_2808245.shtml

[Harmonica]

On Feb 9th (4days ago) the Baht gave its first signal of following some of the major currencies in their recent weakness against the USD.

It is highly likely (90% odds IMHO) that Baht will weaken.

Give it a few trading days to bite. 

So it turns out that I might be right -- the February 7 low of 38.175 has held up quite well and Baht has not strengthened further despite the one month long sideways action.

OK, let's move on. Now we have a breakout out of a pattern topside -- first on the 17th (yesterday) and then confirmed today! We're off to the races. US $ will give Baht a solid pasting.

Yep, things are looking up!

[Harmonica]

[LivinLOS]

Yeah exactly..

As central banks desperatly buy to try and hold the dollar slide and keep thier own exports down... They still fail to keep it loosing ground.

This is not a good graph for your argument.

[Harmonica]

Yeah exactly..

As central banks desperatly buy to try and hold the dollar slide and keep thier own exports down... They still fail to keep it loosing ground.

This is not a good graph for your argument.

Look at the trendline break, Your Excellency!

Give it some thought and put the matter of the Central Bank on the back burner for now.

How does LOS foreign netbuying or netselling relate to the LOS Stockmarket & Baht/$?

If you're going to continually shoot me in the Kidneys & Liver, perhaps you were not privy to my standing request, "When they do me in, pray its someone who knows where to shoot!"

[Harmonica]

In answer to a PM .....

Thai Baht is continuously updated on Thai TV channels like itv and a few others -- the rate is shown for $, Euro etc. --

CNBC Asia (UBC channel 55 ?) also has a continuous update in the currency section as it scrolls by -- bottom of the screen.

PSI satellite system -- go to thaicom 2 and switch to channel 2.

On the NET, go to www.seamico.com and scroll down to the data on the SET, Baht, $ & Yen etc.

If you have Apex@I real-time thaistocks (thru' Reuters Thailand) info, the thai Baht is shown trading in increasing increments from seconds to whatever.

OK?

[bangkokian]

u>s. Dollar going down, but Thai baht may be subjected to some "fowl Play" as it has been not too many years back--Gold is definitely the best in LOS as silver is not quite as tradable. Solid Gold comes with its disadvantages, but it is probably the best to have in bad times.

There was some sort of News not too long ago about Thai banks no longer being able to provide the traditional gaurantee for your savings.

My Back hurts, so I'll keep it short la....

[Khun Larry]

Indebted US consumers 'threaten world growth'

How much stronger will the Baht go this year?  Any guesses?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Baht is scheduled to go to 30, maybe 25. Then it could settle in the 20 range before finally going to 15 or lower.

For this reason I exchanged an extra $20 before returning to the States.

Hard to pass up a bargain.

[Harmonica]

     

PM from Maka necessitates the following clarification:

Who are these foreigners referrred to in the chart above? Taiwanese, Singaporeans, Hong Kong-ese, Koreans, Indonesians & some western players (they are smaller in number than the Asian players) -- not specifying whether these fellows are institutional players or individuals -- they can be a mixture of the 2.

Anyway, why is following their collective footprint so important?

Because their actions determine the direction & extent of the Thai stockmarket rallies to an extent of 90%+ accuracy.

(contd)

[Harmonica]

(contd)

These fellows, as a group (they don't know each other) carry out raids on various markets -- Dow/Nasdaq, European & various Asian markets depending on which they see is going to offer the most upside per unit of time -- that is, they want the highest returns possible for their money (seems reasonable). They are NOT interested in long-term holdings; they want quickies (3-8 month, sometimes a bit longer, rallies)

When they see SE Asia is going to outperform the US & Euro markets, they then determine where to focus their funds -- they might hit 2-3 different SE Asian markets simultaneously.

Thailand is extremely attractive -- for one thing, no capital gains tax -- for another, the Baht/$ offers stunning currency gain opportunites.

So, they go for the double whammy: stock profits & currency gains upon conversion .... & no taxes. HEAVEN!

[Harmonica]

(contd)

Convert strong $ &/or Euro to Baht when Baht is weak -- which, coincidentally is when the Thai market has been going down, down, down. They therefore get lots of Baht. With this cheap Baht they buy Thai stocks and push the market higher. This has almost always coincided with the Baht strengthening. Thai people see the market go up and they rush in, taking it even higher.

This goes on until these same foreign cats start selling -- when? when they perceive, again as a collective group, that the Baht is going to weaken and Dow is going to strengthen vs Asia -- they sell their shares, collect the profit in Baht, which as we know has now strengthened (during the stock rally) -- then they convert to $, Euro or whatever foreign currency, gaining another, let's say 12-20% & ship back to "sortie base"

[Harmonica]

(final)

It is a beautiful scheme and I love it.

I always go on high alert when I see changes in their buying/selling pattern.

Hence the showing of the trendline break in the chart.

Don't know how far down this netselling will go -- needs to be watched.

Neither do I know for sure now whether there is yet one more leg up for the foreigners where they will take the market back upto around 750 .... for the last time this year. It is highly likely, but I'm taking it a day at a time.

To the best of my knowledge, only the Tech man at Tisco (the fella who writes the Bangkok Post Monday's technical article) uses a similar indicator --but he does it differently -- he uses Buy/Sell whereas I use Buy-Sell.

But check this out -- the breakout thru' the trendline on August 25th confirmed the SET Index bottom of August 13th! This is shown in the chart as ( -- (towards the bottom of the chart). The rest of the rally is history!

[LivinLOS]

were did you get the data.. You are suggesting that private traders and forex dealers are a major proportion of the numbers yet it is central bank intervention (billions of Yen for example) and massive deficit 'purchases' of dollars by selling goods that is driving the market...

Forex players make a tiny tiny % unless you have collected data specifically to illustrate them.

[thedude]

Harmonica, you are absolutely correct. You identified the foreign influence through your technical analysis, and i can verify that because I actually stumbled on this fact by talking to someone linked to the foreign traders.

A couple years ago i was having a chat with an old friend who is a private banker with saloman smith barney, based in singapore, and in my enthusiastic state i was relating the fantastic goings on in the SET. Obviously i was making a lot of money at that time, who wasn't. He revealed that the run was ending soon and explained that his funds seem to be indicating the same, and that when the funds move out, the market will correct. At that time, he suggested that i focus on the malaysian bourse instead for 2004. I didn't quite get what he was saying at first - i always thought that i was the master of my own financial destiny - until i realised that as a retail level punter, i am really at the bin end of the institutional guy's trading movement. without us dumb retail punters, they wouldn't be able to take profit.

being in private banking, my friend had direct access to the activities of the major funds and their impending movements, especially those linked to citicorp. after all, it is in citicorps' interest to ensure that their high net worth clients continue to keep their money invested with them (which is why the rich will always continue to be rich). some funds actually allocate units to the private banking side which are not available to retail customers. such funds, as you pointed out, move in gangs, raiding markets that are overweight, and then moving out in a matter of months to the next best thing. they are mostly domiciled in asian hubs like hong kong, singapore, korea etc they will keep moving this way until they get blindsided by something bigger than them, probably coming from the macro side, but generally, its a very profitable endeavor.

the SET is a good playground for these funds for the reasons you mentioned, but also because of the relatively low governance standards and the small size and high activity, which makes it quite easy to influence.

i have been hearing from other sources recently who are indicating a sideways movement in the SET until 2nd half of this year, hovering in the low 700s. what do you think?

[Harmonica]

were did you get the data.. You are suggesting that private traders and forex dealers are a major proportion of the numbers yet it is central bank intervention (billions of Yen for example) and massive deficit 'purchases' of dollars by selling goods that is driving the market...

Forex players make a tiny tiny % unless you have collected data specifically to illustrate them.

Who are you & what are you smoking?

[bangkokian]

See when the sell-off comes by , the Thai baht will "ding" down.

If only I had bought gold at the dawn of the last Asian Economic crisis, I would have been better off today. Gold also goes up in dollar terms when it weakens against the Euro, (and sometimes the Yen).

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, you are absolutely correct.  You identified the foreign influence through your technical analysis, and i can verify that because I actually stumbled on this fact by talking to someone linked to the foreign traders.

A couple years ago i was having a chat with an old friend who is a private banker with saloman smith barney, based in singapore, and in my enthusiastic state i was relating the fantastic goings on in the SET.  Obviously i was making a lot of money at that time, who wasn't.  He revealed that the run was ending soon and explained that his funds seem to be indicating the same, and that when the funds move out, the market will correct.  At that time, he suggested that i focus on the malaysian bourse instead for 2004.  I didn't quite get what he was saying at first - i always thought that i was the master of my own financial destiny - until i realised that as a retail level punter, i am really at the bin end of the institutional guy's trading movement.  without us dumb retail punters, they wouldn't be able to take profit. 

being in private banking, my friend had direct access to the activities of the major funds and their impending movements, especially those linked to citicorp.  after all, it is in citicorps' interest to ensure that their high net worth clients continue to keep their money invested with them (which is why the rich will always continue to be rich).  some funds actually allocate units to the private banking side which are not available to retail customers.  such funds, as you pointed out, move in gangs, raiding markets that are overweight, and then moving out in a matter of months to the next best thing.  they are mostly domiciled in asian hubs like hong kong, singapore, korea etc  they will keep moving this way until they get blindsided by something bigger than them, probably coming from the macro side, but generally, its a very profitable endeavor.

the SET is a good playground for these funds for the reasons you mentioned, but also because of the relatively low governance standards and the small size and high activity, which makes it quite easy to influence. 

i have been hearing from other sources recently who are indicating a sideways movement in the SET until 2nd half of this year, hovering in the low 700s.  what do you think?

Very pleased to read your response.

There have been so many times I've been at my broker's office and seen some thai people I know -- just buying in a frenzy; I mean they were just piling in with the rent, food and milk money -- but unbeknownst to them the "fuel-truck" had already left town and there were just fumes left. Depressing, but that is the nature of the beast.

Watching the "foreigner" movements is absolutely vital.

Your comments about "governance" etc. are also right on the money.

To answer your question about the SET direction & extent, I have posted my response in the SET Index thread -- & will be posting further analysis during the course of the next several days -- the thread had faded into oblivion, but I've brought it back.

Check it out -- would be interested to see your reasoning/analysis on SET expectations and, of course, why you feel the way you do?

[Maka]

For what its worth.

The Thai Bhat broke past 38.5 then 38.6 yesterday.

It has not dropped below 38.6 in the last several hrs.

A blip or a trend? Time will answer that.

But so far its dancing to Harmonicas tune.

[Harmonica]

For what its worth.

The Thai Bhat broke past 38.5 then 38.6 yesterday.

It has not dropped below 38.6 in the last several hrs.

A blip or a trend?  Time will answer that.

But so far its dancing to Harmonicas tune.

Its dancing to Luktung music and ... that outstanding Louisiana, Cajun style(Lanna?) music I've been hearing on weekends at the foodcourt @ Carrefour, in CM.

[Maka]

Watching Ms. Bhat get up to dance, she moves towards the dance foor.

Having gotten around table 38.5 after a little struggle, she slipped pass table 38.6 with ease.

Tapping a toe to the Harmonica music, I watch her struggle a bit with the crowd at table 38.7

But she seems determind to get by them to in her undaunted quest for the dancefloor, just past table 40.0

With more than passing interest I watch her progress

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 38.7027 THB

Thailand Baht

shes gonna make it I do believe.

[Harmonica]

38.78 @ 12:00 noon Thursday on bloomberg -- which, by the way, is a great place to get all your near real-time info.

Good stuff, Maka!

But a reminder: don't get too disappointed if Baht reverses and strengthens against $ in the very near future; it will be her last ride. But there are strong odds that the closing bottom of 38.255 , registered on February 7, will hold and not be violated!

The $ has hired me to ride shotgun -- watch out! I take no prisoners!

[pedro01]

38.78 @ 12:00 noon Thursday on bloomberg -- which, by the way, is a great place to get all your near real-time info.

Good stuff, Maka!

But a reminder:  don't get too disappointed if Baht reverses and strengthens against $ in the very near future; it will be her last ride.  But there are strong odds that the closing bottom of 38.255 ,  registered on February 7, will hold and not be violated!

The $ has hired me to ride shotgun -- watch out!  I take no prisoners! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

About time too - I'm holding onto Dollars at the moment but I really need to get them back to Thailand soon...

Big up the dollar - when are US interest rates likely to be raised ?

[Harmonica]

38.78 @ 12:00 noon Thursday on bloomberg -- which, by the way, is a great place to get all your near real-time info.

Good stuff, Maka!

But a reminder:  don't get too disappointed if Baht reverses and strengthens against $ in the very near future; it will be her last ride.  But there are strong odds that the closing bottom of 38.255 ,  registered on February 7, will hold and not be violated!

The $ has hired me to ride shotgun -- watch out!  I take no prisoners!  

About time too - I'm holding onto Dollars at the moment but I really need to get them back to Thailand soon...

Big up the dollar - when are US interest rates likely to be raised ?

Pedro,

Easy Al just raised the Fed funds rate 2 days ago. By the look on his face its relatively clear he's going to accelerate his rate hikes. This is $'s high octane fuel!

[Harmonica]

Maka,

No comments since 38.70? At 9:45 AM today, Friday, Bloomberg shows 38.93.

Does your conspicuous absense mean that you have gone into ecstasy & already reached a transcendental state?

The night is still young, amigo and the road ahead long and fraught with peril -- but spurts of joy and bliss are forthcoming.

And the $ ain't even warmed up yet!