Stronger Baht/usd

[Maka]

ArtfulD

xe.com Universal Currency Converter ® Results

is what Im using.

[Maka]

They (xe) say:

"using live mid-market rates "

I went to eSignal website, got someone in live chat. He wasn't clear as to whether they even had a currency converter or how it was set up, then hung up on me when I was reluctant to give him my CC # for a "free trial" before I knew more about the curriency converter.

Sorry, I was hoping to run it next to mine and compare them.

If you'd like to try it go to

http://www.xe.com/ucc

its free

Bhat still finding highs.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2264 THB

[ArtfulD]

They (xe) say:

"using live mid-market rates "

I went to eSignal website, got someone in live chat. He wasn't clear as to whether they even had a currency converter or how it was set up, then hung up on me when I was reluctant to give him my CC # for a "free trial" before I knew more about the curriency converter.

Sorry, I was hoping to run it next to mine and compare them.

If you'd like to try it go to

http://www.xe.com/ucc

its free

Bhat still finding highs.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2264 THB

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks, although I do use XE also for currency transfers bank-bank. I found their rates are better than banks will offer even on large transactions. You do have to pay for ESignal depending on what data you wish to have. They are a pure data provider however rather than broker. For a good broker I recomend Interactive Brokers as they let you access about every major market in the world, their customer support isnt so good but their platform and the sheer amount of markets they let you trade (+ cheap commissions) are great. If your looking to do smaller purely forex transactions Oanda are excellent also (no THB as its not considered a major currency, Interactive Brokers will let you trade THB tho).

For a cheap charting package, I recomend Amibroker...99bucks for the cheapest one and it easily sets itself up for end of day data from the likes of Yahoo, Esignal etc if you dont want to pay for real time data...

Thats basically mysetup atm, Amibroker using data from ESignal with Oanda and Interactive Brokers as my brokers.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica

"39.15 zone 13 times since 1997"

Looking at your graph above, it seems that the level of 40.5 - 41 had even more points of crossings, isn't it.

Or, is it just to early to point out this zone level?

Isn't it an indication of the "true" THB value, or something like that?

Correct! But we are focusing on only ONE level in my chart. We must cross this first; when we do, we will take up the next together.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica,

Don't you think the blue lines are more meaningfull?

1997 - 2001 seem to be very different than 2001 - 2005.

The chart I presented has only ONE purpose -- to show the long-term support/Resistance line @ 39.15.

All trendlines, fanlines, patterns (including the wedge) were erased so that ONLY this line could be viewed. This reduces confusion immensely as most here don't understand charts at all and there is no sense in confusing them with complex patterns and trendlines, when the point can be brought home with just a skeleton.

A barebones chart!

[Yangpuss]

This from the Daily Pfennig, March 22:

Finally, a story was printed in the Beijing Daily yesterday which said

China will change the yuan's peg from the dollar to a basket of eight

currencies and widen the band in which it is traded starting in May.

The Beijing Daily said, citing unnamed financial sources, that the

government will allow the renminbi (yuan) to fluctuate in a range of between

.6% to 1%. Currently the currency is only allowed to fluctuate .3%

above and below the pegged currency rate. This is what we have thought

China would do all along; ease the currency upward on a slow but steady

appreciation using a basket of currencies to regulate its value. The

timing is all that is left. We still think investments in other Asian

currencies such as the Thai Baht, Singapore Dollar, or Japanese Yen are

going to perform just as well if not better than investments in the

Renminbi. I haven't been able to find any other stories on this, so take

it as just another indication of what will eventually happen. As Chuck

likes to say, where there is smoke, there is fire!

If China does this, allowing it to fluctuate up to 1% isn't going to make much difference nor generate much profit for speculators, is it?

But if they peg it to a basket of currencies, does that mean that there will be a sudden, significant shift in value? And that that NEW value will then be allowed to fluctuate up to 1%?

If anyone can explain this, I'd appreciate.

[Maka]

Lets see what is happening now that the Yankees are awake

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2632 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2617 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2595 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2591 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2638 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2650 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2627 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2674 THB

OK good, no Easter Egg on my face.

YET

ArtfulD

Im not a trader or even a real player. Just a poor little businessman who, for the moment, is very interestd in what the Bhat does.

ESignal wanted $160 USD a month, and all I want is a simple converter.

Thanyou for the input and insight.

[Harmonica]

Lets see what is happening now that the Yankees are awake

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2632 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2617 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2595 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2591 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2638 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2650 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2627 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars    =    39.2674 THB

OK good, no Easter Egg on my face.

YET

ArtfulD

Im not a trader or even a real player. Just a poor little businessman who, for the moment, is very interestd in what the Bhat does.

ESignal wanted $160 USD a month, and all I want is a simple converter.

Thanyou for the input and insight.

Maka,

You are right not to be willing to pay $160/mo. for data. The best data is FREE, just like .... AIR!

If you do a one time investment in just one software package (about $350) for analysis (if you so desire), you are set for life.

Plug this link into your link bar or have it as your homepage; refresh it when reqd.

All major currencies in almost real-time and all at a glance.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencie...currencies.html

[Harmonica]

Japanese Yen crossed 107.

[thedude]

Harmonica, i'm no expert on currencies so you'll have to excuse my ignorance - but doesnt the rumoured unpegging of the renminbi suggest that it and other regional currencies (see Yangpuss' earlier post) will appreciate against the usd? what sort of parallel world are you coming from that is betting on the baht hitting 50? it defies reasoning. haven't you heard that even guys like buffet and soros are pratically shorting the dollar? what is the economic basis for a stronger usd? thanks in advance.

[LivinLOS]

Harm is basing his estimates on technical charting and in some part contratrian strategies (been a ok way to trade during the very unusual last 10 years)..

What Harm refuses to pay attention to is USD M3 money supply growth and deficit actions / lack of GDP inside the US..

His actions are fine for short term plays and 'trading' that is very different from longer term trend investing.

As I remember it not only is there a 50 baht USD predicition there is also a 250 gold ounce and oil was also maddeningly low, was it 15 or 25 USD per barrel you called Harm ??

[Harmonica]

Harm is basing his estimates on technical charting and in some part contratrian strategies (been a ok way to trade during the very unusual last 10 years)..

What Harm refuses to pay attention to is USD M3 money supply growth and deficit actions / lack of GDP inside the US..

His actions are fine for short term plays and 'trading' that is very different from longer term trend investing.

As I remember it not only is there a 50 baht USD predicition there is also a 250 gold ounce and oil was also maddeningly low, was it 15 or 25 USD per barrel you called Harm ??

Help me Lord; my assailant has returned. I hope he has learned to shoot properly during his absense.

Gold down to 350, then 325, 300 and finally @ 250. Then rising from the ashes and exploding to $1,000-3,000.

Oil down to 10-20/barrel.

Dow Jones around 1,000

Nasdaq closed down!

DEFLATION!

Give all of the above TIME, let's say we should be well underway by 2006 and extending into 2009.

Satisfied?

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, i'm no expert on currencies so you'll have to excuse my ignorance - but doesnt the rumoured unpegging of the renminbi suggest that it and other regional currencies (see Yangpuss' earlier post) will appreciate against the usd?  what sort of parallel world are you coming from that is betting on the baht hitting 50?  it defies reasoning.  haven't you heard that even guys like buffet and soros are pratically shorting the dollar?  what is the economic basis for a stronger usd?  thanks in advance.

>>>>> Harmonica, i'm no expert on currencies so you'll have to excuse my ignorance - but doesnt the rumoured unpegging of the renminbi suggest that it and other regional currencies (see Yangpuss' earlier post) will appreciate against the usd? <<<<<<<

My analysis suggests that these currencies will suffer against the $ -- regardless what the renminbi does or doesn't do!

>>>>what sort of parallel world are you coming from that is betting on the baht hitting 50? it defies reasoning.<<<<<<

the same exact parallel world that existed in late 1999 when I told everybody to get out of Nasdaq. Hehehehe

>>>>>haven't you heard that even guys like buffet and soros are pratically shorting the dollar?<<<<<<

No, that means they are LONG the dollar, just like me!

>>>>>what is the economic basis for a stronger usd? thanks in advance.<<<<<<

Non sequitur!

Your court!

[LivinLOS]

Your assailant ?? Not at all.. I think your day to day short term workings are fine and interesting.. Its not the way I work or wish to work..

Your commodity predictions and faith in the greenback over the long term I dissagree with (strongly)..

[Harmonica]

Harm is basing his estimates on technical charting and in some part contratrian strategies (been a ok way to trade during the very unusual last 10 years)..

What Harm refuses to pay attention to is USD M3 money supply growth and deficit actions / lack of GDP inside the US..

His actions are fine for short term plays and 'trading' that is very different from longer term trend investing.

As I remember it not only is there a 50 baht USD predicition there is also a 250 gold ounce and oil was also maddeningly low, was it 15 or 25 USD per barrel you called Harm ??

Don't say I never did anything for you!

[thedude]

i don't get it Harmonica, are you saying that you are taking the opposite position just because it is there?

what a coincidence, i too predicted the Nasdeq slide in 1999, but that was based on the reasoning that most of the internet models were a long way away from generating real economic returns and seeing all kinds of start-ups that normally wouldn't see the light of day being funded because of the "internet" part of the strategy. and meanwhile all the funds were on this herd mentality because no one wanted to be the last through the door because they allowed a little business sense to hold them back. it was not that i was terribly clever or anything, lots of people saw it coming at the time too.

but with the slide of the usd, this is different. you can be contrarian about the internet, and with good reason, but what reason is there to back up a strengthening dollar? i am not suggesting that you are wrong, but what plausible reason can you provide to support your position, apart from just calling it and quoting Nasdeq '99.

[~G~]

i don't get it Harmonica, are you saying that you are taking the opposite position just because it is there?

what a coincidence, i too predicted the Nasdeq slide in 1999, but that was based on the reasoning that most of the internet models were a long way away from generating real economic returns and seeing all kinds of start-ups that normally wouldn't see the light of day being funded because of the "internet" part of the strategy. and meanwhile all the funds were on this herd mentality because no one wanted to be the last through the door because they allowed a little business sense to hold them back.   it was not that i was terribly clever or anything, lots of people saw it coming at the time too.

but with the slide of the usd, this is different.  you can be contrarian about the internet, and with good reason, but what reason is there to back up a strengthening dollar?  i am not suggesting that you are wrong, but what plausible reason can you provide to support your position, apart from just calling it and quoting Nasdeq '99.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He considers technical analysis only, not macro-economics information. Watching trends come and go.

One can argue that if everybody believe the $ will go down, than the price of the $ already reflects this negative opinion (not many are holding it), and it can now go up.

By the way, this is not my opinion, I believe $ will be even lower in the long term. But for short and midterm trading this argument might holds.

Edited March 29, 2005 by ~G~

[Maka]

At present the trend continues. Ever so steadily Ms. Bhat moves ahead. Table 39.3 within reach.

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2984 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.2986 THB

She'll be there by morning, as the Harpoon continues to lure her to the dance floor.

Whoa!! This just in

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 39.3026 THB

{Any one who quotes George Patton can't be all bad}

[Harmonica]

Your assailant ?? Not at all.. I think your day to day short term workings are fine and interesting.. Its not the way I work or wish to work..

Your commodity predictions and faith in the greenback over the long term I dissagree with (strongly)..

"Assailant" -- not to be taken literally, my friend. Remember the banter? If we lose that, we'd be losing more than just money.

No amigo, I welcome your challenges, your requirements of proof and ALL your input.

We disagree in many areas and in some, quite intensely. That is healthy; healthier than just going along with the experts and falling asleep at the wheel.

I enjoy your posts. Much obliged!

[Harmonica]

i don't get it Harmonica, are you saying that you are taking the opposite position just because it is there?

what a coincidence, i too predicted the Nasdeq slide in 1999, but that was based on the reasoning that most of the internet models were a long way away from generating real economic returns and seeing all kinds of start-ups that normally wouldn't see the light of day being funded because of the "internet" part of the strategy. and meanwhile all the funds were on this herd mentality because no one wanted to be the last through the door because they allowed a little business sense to hold them back.  it was not that i was terribly clever or anything, lots of people saw it coming at the time too.

but with the slide of the usd, this is different.  you can be contrarian about the internet, and with good reason, but what reason is there to back up a strengthening dollar?  i am not suggesting that you are wrong, but what plausible reason can you provide to support your position, apart from just calling it and quoting Nasdeq '99.

Being a contrarian just for the sake of taking the opposite side, though attractive, is actually not always remunerative. The best time to take such a contrarian view is at major turns in markets or ANYTHING else in life. But this necessitates that one really is viewing a TURN in the making.

ALL my views expressed here are my own and are based entirely on SUPPLY/DEMAND and the Psychology of buyers/sellers as evident on a price chart.

The "non sequitur" answer in an earlier post refers to the irrefutable fact that the Economy does NOT precede the stock market -- in the real world, the stock market is the best sign of the Economy that is to come further down the road, in 6-18 months time.

Furthermore, based on the above postulates, there is therefore absolutely no intermediate-term (or longer) value to NEWS driven markets. Markets only appear to be driven by News; in reality the TREND is already in place and the motion already in progress. News is NEVER the cause.

The actions that go into place when a buyer and seller meet -- be it a commodity, stock, or whatever; this is the only real item of truth; nobody has yet found a way to lie about the OPEN, HIGH, LOW or the CLOSE (for the day, week or month). They lie about everything else; from fudging Income statements to all the shenanigans evident on Balance Sheets etc.

The only truth left is "where did the market, stock or commodity OPEN/CLOSE/HIGH/LOW.

Thats enough for me to get the job done!

There you have it.

When they find a way to cheat about these figures, I'll find a new line of work/business.

[ArtfulD]

People might find last weeks COT (Commitment Of Traders report) interesting.

COT

Right now people are stuck between 10 year USD index lows and the previous 4 years down trend....I think this is where abouts your either gonna get a massive sell off of the dollar if it did break that 10 year low, but for some (Harmonica!) now seems like a great time to buy (if your holding for many years). Im sitting out till I see setups that are in accordance with my system and go either way. For really big players who have billions to move I can see why they would be slowly rebuilding USD positions near this point, although I still cant help but feel bearish on the whole thing...If USD gets stronger then all the artificially inflated company profits via a low dollar will disapear and hurt the US markets. Perhaps some sideways action? Who knows.

[Yangpuss]

Okay, I see nobody has answered my question. So let's imagine this scenario:

May 15 -- China suddenly announces that the dollar peg is over, and they have a new peg to a basket of currencies.

On that date, does the RMB appreciate dramatically? So it is no longer 1 USD

= 8.27 CNY ? But rather 1 USD = 6.15 CNY? Or something like that?

Or does this happen gradually?

The rumor is they will let it fluctuate up to 1%. But is there a dramatic movement there on the day they change the peg to the basket? Or am I misunderstanding this?

[MikeWill]

Okay, I see nobody has answered my question. So let's imagine this scenario:

May 15 -- China suddenly announces that the dollar peg is over, and they have a new peg to a basket of currencies.

On that date, does the RMB appreciate dramatically? So it is no longer 1 USD

= 8.27 CNY ? But rather 1 USD = 6.15 CNY? Or something like that?

Or does this happen gradually?

The rumor is they will let it fluctuate up to 1%. But is there a dramatic movement there on the day they change the peg to the basket? Or am I misunderstanding this?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I wish I knew the answer to your question... as I also want to know what and how it will happend (if at all) not less than you.

If one already have or would buy the CNY today, he would become ~25% reacher (in dollar terms) in rather short period of time, isn't it.

Its looks like a short and profitable gamble.

Let the masters of prediction and market analysts to answer that quest on Yuan.

Tho', despite the doom predictions over US economy, I still believe that there are no real alternatives to the $ as the world's major currency.

The short positions on CNY or THB for that matter ain't a long term alternative.

The Yen had past the 107.5 level, but THB is still at 39.31 without any considerable movements. The SET is dropped ~ 1.6% during 2 last sessions.

What does it all mean? Just a slow pace or some turning point!

[LivinLOS]

I dont think they would allow it to float 25% etc.. This would have too much of an upheaval effect to thier economy (though it is becomeing clear as consumers of base commodities, and as commodities are in a bull, that they will need to start to look at thier imports as well as thier export side)...

The initial 1% float will simply be to accomodate some US blustering etc.. China will do whats good for China.. When they are finding that oil / copper / etc prices are restricting thier growth, they will allow more float in thier currency..

Of course currency manipulation like this is only possible when you do not allow the market to balance via forx trades.. what has become interesting is that recently China has started to allow its population to purchase gold for savings (this was not possible before) with the immense population this has a 'possible' effect on the long term picture..

[LivinLOS]

ALL my views expressed here are my own and are based entirely on SUPPLY/DEMAND and the Psychology of buyers/sellers as evident on a price chart. 

Now here is a statement I can wholeheartedly agree with..

So lets look at those for a second..

Demand.. Demand for the USD is based on the GDP of the USA, peoples global demand for the US's goods and services are what defined the 'demand' for its currency, this is what took America to being the worlds reserve currency, not only its large geographic base (high mineral / oil / etc) but also the fact that Americans were hard working, high saving, net exporters.. Thier 'Made in America was a hallmark mark of quality, made in Japan or even worse made in China signified inferior goods.. This clearly has changed..

So, many say America has rebranded itself as a service economy, I am not sure I believe it, as it seems to me any 'service' to increase the stock of America Inc needs to sell itself to foriegners, Simply selling each other starbucks for big macs does not make America richer it simply passes money within the local economy. Also any serice that can be exported instead of being exported from the USA (ie American service sector workers) is being imported by the USA (eg Indian programmers) this outsourcing of labour again shows no 'demand' in the USD much mroe a case of the opposite US demand for more foriegn goods and services..

This massive net outflow (in trade deficit spending) merely gluts the rest of the world in dollar instruments... When the trade deficit is turned around and heading for negative territory, then and only then can dollar demand be said to be increasing..

So then Supply.. Short supply of USD ?? Ever since E-Z Al took the reigns at the Fed money has being pumped into the system.. Current estimates on early numbers this year give rise to predictions that the fed may increase USD money supply by over 1 trillion this year !! numbers I recently read show 4.5 million being printed per day !!! This money passed out in the form of governement deficit spending and increased debt levels of the US citizen can have only a limited set of outcomes.. Increased supply leads directly to lower dollar value (on the global market) and / or increased inflation (within the US economy) in reality both these effects are likely.. You either lose 'value' through real value lost in purchasing other fiat currencies or you lose value in purchasing power of real items and commodities..

Giving central governments the ability to print money does not create wealth, in fact it does the opposite it destroys the value of the currency as a store of assets and discourages saving...

[sonnyjc7]

Which is worse, a racing in debt economy or one that runs on how much it can steal. USofA has problems but at least our economy is based on a solid foundation of homes and goods and not on something as ethereal as tourists and how many can the country clip when they come to visit. face it the US is the biggest bully on the street, if you don't like that get off the street! Everybody loves to hate the US but everybody wants to go there including all you Thais out there.

[LivinLOS]

Based on what it can steal.. Tourism is stealing ??

I am not comparing the US to Thailand or any other but every debt has to be repaid or defaulted.. simple..

As to based on homes and goods, the housing bubble will burst the same as the tech bubble did, it only exists because E_Z Al has pumped the market with E_Z credit and everyone and thier uncle have refianced and bought more than they can afford.. When interest rates rise the pain will start to be felt..

As for goods, I really cant remember the last time I saw a 'Made in the USA' label.. What does get exported from the US these days ??

I for one am very thankful I dont have to live in the states.. Nice for a visit, travelled all over it, but I would have a hard time living there..

[Indo-Siam]

What does get exported from the US these days ??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Designs for Intel Pentium chips, Cisco Routers, and support/updates for Microsoft and MacIntosh software.

Heart pacemakers, stents, catheters from Medtronic, Guidant, and several others.

Harley Davidson motorcycles.

Cray Supercomputers.

etc.

Indo-Siam

[stumonster]

What does get exported from the US these days ??

Designs for Intel Pentium chips, Cisco Routers, and support/updates for Microsoft and MacIntosh software.

Heart pacemakers, stents, catheters from Medtronic, Guidant, and several others.

Harley Davidson motorcycles.

Cray Supercomputers.

etc.

Indo-Siam

patents - software and pharmaceutical and IP (RIAA & MPAA)

[xbusman]

The manufacturing might of America is almost too large to grasp. Its just so easy there because of the overwhelming infrastructure and educated labor, its also so expensive. The advantages alone are almost too numerous to list, from cheap oil to easy transportation to raw materials. There is no doubt that the low skill high volume mass production of items like toasters and cell phones have gone to places like china but in the end there is very little money in commodities operating in mature markets. Its what keeps the labor force unskilled and unpaid. Manufacturing in america has just moved to electron microscopes and satellites, airplanes and pace makers. Anyone who says that america doesnt manufacture doesnt have a clue about industrial output. I would agree that they are losing low skilled manufacturing but its just a stage of growth and development. Japan and Germany are having the exact same problem, the bad news is their governments work to prop up their failing industries to keep their people working instead of moving with market.

Having worked all over the world, I can tell you that no other country comes even close to the size and strength of the American industrial base. Japan has it dialed but still lacks raw materials and space.