Fatal Flaws That Wrecked Thailand’s Promise

[Oberkommando]

Good article in the FT.

In 1995 The Economist projected that by 2020 Thailand would be the world’s eighth-largest economy. Its forecast, which now looks a tad, shall we say, optimistic, followed a 10-year run in which Thailand muscled out even China as the world’s fastest-growing economy, expanding at a blistering 8.4 per cent a year. Those were the days.

The decade after the Asian financial crisis, which began with the devaluation of the baht and ended with the 2006 coup that ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, has not been so kind. Although the country bounced back from the 1997 devaluation, when it carelessly misplaced 15 per cent of gross domestic product in 18 months, the economy never recovered its former vigour. It has bumbled along at a respectable, but less than socially transformative, 4-5 per cent a year. This year its economy is likely to shrink by some 5 per cent. In that, admittedly, it is not alone.

Yet it is fair to ask why Thailand has failed to fulfil its potential. Once mentioned, at least by the excitable, in the same breath as high-tech Taiwan, it is now more likely to be grouped with the high-maintenance Philippines. Far from closing in on the world’s eighth-biggest economy – a slot currently occupied by Spain, with an output nearly six times that of Thailand – it languishes in 33rd place. In per capita terms it plods in at an even more pedestrian 78th, with an income of $3,851, far below Taiwan’s $17,000 although above the likes of Indonesia at about $2,000.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ebf80c58-34ed-11...?nclick_check=1

[Jingthing]

If it had become like Singapore, that would not please most expats, lets be honest.

[wasabi]

If it had become like Singapore, that would not please most expats, lets be honest.

This is the Thai conundrum. There are strong forces opposing change and development. There are very strong hands who are quite happy for things to stay as they are or even move backwards. I too would not like if Thailand became another Singapore however I am saddened by it's major stumbles and lack of development. They simply have failed to move into the 21st century and are mired in internal strife and apathy.

[Svenn]

Let's hope the Economist's projections still hold true and the current setbacks are just temporary. There's so many people in this country and so much business activity it seems like it's gotta get better, but i'm no economist. I frankly just want the land values to go up in Isaan so m'lady can turn a profit.

[Oberkommando]

Let's hope the Economist's projections still hold true and the current setbacks are just temporary.

[Scott]

Thailand is like a dance. Two steps one way, then one another. Then lets spin around for a while. And now it seems the music has stopped.

[mhatami]

Let's hope the Economist's projections still hold true and the current setbacks are just temporary. There's so many people in this country and so much business activity it seems like it's gotta get better, but i'm no economist. I frankly just want the land values to go up in Isaan so m'lady can turn a profit.

how can you belive this report. it is 14 years old. alot can change /happen in 14 years

[h90]

Good article in the FT.

In 1995 The Economist projected that by 2020 Thailand would be the world’s eighth-largest economy. Its forecast, which now looks a tad, shall we say, optimistic, followed a 10-year run in which Thailand muscled out even China as the world’s fastest-growing economy, expanding at a blistering 8.4 per cent a year. Those were the days.

The decade after the Asian financial crisis, which began with the devaluation of the baht and ended with the 2006 coup that ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, has not been so kind. Although the country bounced back from the 1997 devaluation, when it carelessly misplaced 15 per cent of gross domestic product in 18 months, the economy never recovered its former vigour. It has bumbled along at a respectable, but less than socially transformative, 4-5 per cent a year. This year its economy is likely to shrink by some 5 per cent. In that, admittedly, it is not alone.

Yet it is fair to ask why Thailand has failed to fulfil its potential. Once mentioned, at least by the excitable, in the same breath as high-tech Taiwan, it is now more likely to be grouped with the high-maintenance Philippines. Far from closing in on the world’s eighth-biggest economy – a slot currently occupied by Spain, with an output nearly six times that of Thailand – it languishes in 33rd place. In per capita terms it plods in at an even more pedestrian 78th, with an income of $3,851, far below Taiwan’s $17,000 although above the likes of Indonesia at about $2,000.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ebf80c58-34ed-11...?nclick_check=1

one of the biggest problem is the poor educational system here.

Abhisit wants to improve it, but I doubt with some small chances it can't be repaired. the whole system must be changed and the Democrats don't look like they want to do that.

Even if they would do, it needs at least 10-15 years before the first output can be seen.

[Thai at Heart]

Good article in the FT.

In 1995 The Economist projected that by 2020 Thailand would be the world’s eighth-largest economy. Its forecast, which now looks a tad, shall we say, optimistic, followed a 10-year run in which Thailand muscled out even China as the world’s fastest-growing economy, expanding at a blistering 8.4 per cent a year. Those were the days.

The decade after the Asian financial crisis, which began with the devaluation of the baht and ended with the 2006 coup that ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, has not been so kind. Although the country bounced back from the 1997 devaluation, when it carelessly misplaced 15 per cent of gross domestic product in 18 months, the economy never recovered its former vigour. It has bumbled along at a respectable, but less than socially transformative, 4-5 per cent a year. This year its economy is likely to shrink by some 5 per cent. In that, admittedly, it is not alone.

Yet it is fair to ask why Thailand has failed to fulfil its potential. Once mentioned, at least by the excitable, in the same breath as high-tech Taiwan, it is now more likely to be grouped with the high-maintenance Philippines. Far from closing in on the world’s eighth-biggest economy – a slot currently occupied by Spain, with an output nearly six times that of Thailand – it languishes in 33rd place. In per capita terms it plods in at an even more pedestrian 78th, with an income of $3,851, far below Taiwan’s $17,000 although above the likes of Indonesia at about $2,000.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ebf80c58-34ed-11...?nclick_check=1

Would hazard a guess that a country's relative standing in terms of GDP per head is closely related to it's education and corruption ranking also.

Whilst some countries in the world have gone about improving education and cleaning or trying to clean up their act since 1995, it would appear that Thailand may have stood still or even regressed in both of these important issues.

[orpheus454]

Thailand is like a dance. Two steps one way, then one another. Then lets spin around for a while. And now it seems the music has stopped.

Good point.

If only Thailand could have an economy as robust as that of the United States...