Gbp Rate On The Rise?

[neil324]

Predicting long term currency rates you've got no chance. The one thing you can be sure of is rates will go up and down. The best you can do is try time any exchanging. Most people are only concerned with the here and now.

[chiang mai]

Makes me laugh some of the predictions and the DOOM and GLOOM - just transferred a large sum at 54.30 and only a few months ago below 50.00 and many preaching the end is nigh!!! no one fully knows where it's going longer term otherwise they would be very, very rich

I find this all very odd indeed, I mean, here we have several thousand expats transferring currency into the country every year in order to finance their retirement and long stays - we have many thousands of the same beings transferring foreign currency into Thailand to buy real estate which they may want to sell at some point in the future. Surely these individuals must be concerned whether the value of their holdings are likely to appreciate or depreciate over time? If someone transfers in the equivalent of say seven million baht today and the rate falls substantially that could mean a loss of as much as what, a third or more. Me, I'm much less concerned about whether I make a profit or a loss on my real estate holdings than I am about the currency equivalents over time because the potential for a substantial loss is so much greater. Am I alone therefore in wanting to try to understand currency futures from this perspective? I don't expect to be able to accurately predict exchange rates in say ten years time but I think with a little research and effort it's possible to say, on the balance of probability, known risks considered, the strong likelihood is that THB will be x% stronger/weaker than GBP in three five and ten years time, no?

Let me explain a little my approach... I am not very bothered about movements AFTER I have transferred (very bothered BEFORE) for the following reason: I'm not very worried about capital gains - my strategy is for local currency income - income that does not reply on exchange rates and so I have a few condos which i rent out - giving me monthly income for my daily needs etc. So my pension income is in GBP and I try not to touch that nand my Thai income is in THB. As this is the case I'm not worried about fluctuations over the years - if I ever sell (unlikely) I'll take it on the chin whatever I get. It's only a 'loss' if you sell - many of us want local income. Does that sort of make sense?

That's an excellent strategy, you've de-risked the cost of living in Thailand and seem to be hedged nicely. But I think you must be an exception in the crowd and very much in the minority.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Makes me laugh some of the predictions and the DOOM and GLOOM - just transferred a large sum at 54.30 and only a few months ago below 50.00 and many preaching the end is nigh!!! no one fully knows where it's going longer term otherwise they would be very, very rich

I find this all very odd indeed, I mean, here we have several thousand expats transferring currency into the country every year in order to finance their retirement and long stays - we have many thousands of the same beings transferring foreign currency into Thailand to buy real estate which they may want to sell at some point in the future. Surely these individuals must be concerned whether the value of their holdings are likely to appreciate or depreciate over time? If someone transfers in the equivalent of say seven million baht today and the rate falls substantially that could mean a loss of as much as what, a third or more. Me, I'm much less concerned about whether I make a profit or a loss on my real estate holdings than I am about the currency equivalents over time because the potential for a substantial loss is so much greater. Am I alone therefore in wanting to try to understand currency futures from this perspective? I don't expect to be able to accurately predict exchange rates in say ten years time but I think with a little research and effort it's possible to say, on the balance of probability, known risks considered, the strong likelihood is that THB will be x% stronger/weaker than GBP in three five and ten years time, no?

Let me explain a little my approach... I am not very bothered about movements AFTER I have transferred (very bothered BEFORE) for the following reason: I'm not very worried about capital gains - my strategy is for local currency income - income that does not reply on exchange rates and so I have a few condos which i rent out - giving me monthly income for my daily needs etc. So my pension income is in GBP and I try not to touch that nand my Thai income is in THB. As this is the case I'm not worried about fluctuations over the years - if I ever sell (unlikely) I'll take it on the chin whatever I get. It's only a 'loss' if you sell - many of us want local income. Does that sort of make sense?

That's an excellent strategy, you've de-risked the cost of living in Thailand and seem to be hedged nicely. But I think you must be an exception in the crowd and very much in the minority.

Thanks Chiang Mai - it seems to work but some people have commented on 'what if the government kicks out farangs etc.' but, to be honest, life is full of 'what ifs' and we can't hedge against anything too much these days!

I have taken the 50/50 approach and keep roughly half my assets in UK (pension and some rent) for use on overseas visits (including UK visits of course) and back-up. I hope not to have to worry about exchange rates and fluctuations for my week-by-week needs which are met by rental income. The only risk is if I cannot find tenants - not a serious problem so far but a rsik non-the-less.

I figured this was the only way to avoid charges etc. and to mitigate fluctuations in THB over the years - if the income is in the local economy it will be academic. There are several of us who use this approach - some I have met just transfer large sums and use it as and when but that is a profligate approach, in my view, as the money isn't 'washing it's face' by working for you as income.

This may not work for everyone but so far so good... good luck to all.

[HardenedSoul]

S&P downgrade, say goodbye to the strengthening Pound!

GBP now at its highest for months 54!!! soooooooooo S&P downgrade? only one of three - two out of three say UK is AAA and S&P say AA? you say 'goodbye to strengthening pound'? I think you have called this wrong... I'm transferring tomorrow at 54 ish when it was 49/50 - UK will bounce back no worries... basic economy sound - watch this space

I'm offering the HardenedSoul personal guarantee that the UK ain't bouncing anywhere.

We are in worse condition than the US and Europe and as many of you will know, the Financial Services Authority has refused to release the results of the stress tests carried out on UK banks for - wait for it - political reasons . . . ie they don't want people to know just how bad the UK government thinks the recession could get

Darling and Brown are going to have to cough up more readies to prop up Lloyds and RBS and my suspicion is the figure's gonna be eye-watering.

The gilt strike will either prompt the increase of yields on long-dates treasuries or an expansion of QE - take your pick but either way, it ain't pretty. I'm thinking they'd be reluctant to see rates move up to cause another leg down in the property market caused by even more repossessed inventory dragging prices down.

We're going to the IMF, folks.

All that's really relevant is that Western currencies are going to devalue against Asian ones. Oh, and gold

[chiang mai]

S&P downgrade, say goodbye to the strengthening Pound!

GBP now at its highest for months 54!!! soooooooooo S&P downgrade? only one of three - two out of three say UK is AAA and S&P say AA? you say 'goodbye to strengthening pound'? I think you have called this wrong... I'm transferring tomorrow at 54 ish when it was 49/50 - UK will bounce back no worries... basic economy sound - watch this space

I'm offering the HardenedSoul personal guarantee that the UK ain't bouncing anywhere.

We are in worse condition than the US and Europe and as many of you will know, the Financial Services Authority has refused to release the results of the stress tests carried out on UK banks for - wait for it - political reasons . . . ie they don't want people to know just how bad the UK government thinks the recession could get

Darling and Brown are going to have to cough up more readies to prop up Lloyds and RBS and my suspicion is the figure's gonna be eye-watering.

The gilt strike will either prompt the increase of yields on long-dates treasuries or an expansion of QE - take your pick but either way, it ain't pretty. I'm thinking they'd be reluctant to see rates move up to cause another leg down in the property market caused by even more repossessed inventory dragging prices down.

We're going to the IMF, folks.

All that's really relevant is that Western currencies are going to devalue against Asian ones. Oh, and gold

Agreed. And all of that translates into a weaker Pound to Baht exchange rate.

[LivinginKata]

Too many GPB/Baht topics. This one closed.