Ten Predictions For The Next Ten Years For Phuket

[Sir Burr]

1. Tuk-tuk mafia will finally be broken and buses, maybe light railway will go ahead.

2. Thai laws will be changed to make it more difficult for foreigners to work, or, own a business.

3. There will be a major loss of life in Patong due to a building on a hillside coming down due to land slippage.

4. The road from Patong to Chalong will finally be finished.

5. The 80 metres above sea-level building restriction will be increased to 100 metres, regardless of #2.

6. The Kangaroo Bar in Soi Bangla will still look the same.

7. There will be another plane crash at Phuket Airport.

8. Phuket will become a tax-free haven.

9. Phuket will get its first casino.

10. Sex will still be the major draw of Patong's nightlife.

[thaigerd]

Many interesting points Sir Burr!

Mine are:

- No more bars in Bangla Road

- ThaiVisa will open it's first office in Phuket

- Foodland will open a branch here in Phuket

- The first dog restaurant will open(I mean where you can go with you dog(s) )

- You can pay in most places with Euros, Dollars etc.

Gerd

[katasyd]

1.The south of Phuket will get over development (Hotels&Villa/condos) along the coastline to Promthep cape, starting at Kata noi.

2.Thai's will learn english and it will become the first language here.

3.Meters installed into Tuk Tuks, 10b or 15b a kilometer.

[Abrak]

Given that I dont much but do disagree with the opp on several predictions - I will merely point them out. I would have liked to have done this in a different color so that it is easier yo read but I am too incompetent.

1. Tuk-tuk mafia will finally be broken and buses, maybe light railway will go ahead.

I have never seen a tuk tuk in Phuket, bus routes I am told already exist and if you think that light railway is going to exist you have either been spending too much time with the likes of Rawat or you have a creative imagination. Just because someone proposes a light railway link between his property and the airport do not believe this is a feasible idea. Afterall he has named an island after himself on which he expects to build a golf course. My assumption is that these sort of guys are either complete lunatics or that they are not and simply assume there are lunatics out to be taken advantage of. I think I am right in saying that a light railway in BKK commonly know as the BTS has never ever reached profitability.

2. Thai laws will be changed to make it more difficult for foreigners to work, or, own a business.

Tricky one this on the basis that it is extremely easy currently for foreigners both to work and own a business.

But I do disagree with what I believe is the general sentiment of the comment and say that I believe that owning property will be far more acceptable to a foreigner because I believe that registered leases on residential leases will be extended to at leasr 50 years.

3. There will be a major loss of life in Patong due to a building on a hillside coming down due to land slippage.

Cant argue with that one - I also will predict that there will ne at least one farang that is ripped off by a hooker.

4. The road from Patong to Chalong will finally be finished.

Tricky one this. If you mean that where they are currently trying to widen it they will complete the job I will agree but if you are saying it will be finished to the extent that there no additional roadworks I wont. They will probably be turning into a motorway by then.

5. The 80 metres above sea-level building restriction will be increased to 100 metres, regardless of #2.

Cant argue with you over this one (I thought it was 60m). However my prediction is that current setback rules typically nothing for 20 metres from the coastline/chanote, 6m height for the next 30m and 12m for the next 150m will continue to be flexible given satisfactory compensation/

6. The Kangaroo Bar in Soi Bangla will still look the same.

I will have to try and find it before commenting.

7. There will be another plane crash at Phuket Airport.

50:50. I mean it clearly isnt in the interests of Phuket to allow totally unqualified and incompetent airlines to fly but I readily admit it still might happen.

8. Phuket will become a tax-free haven.

Dream on. Come on why should the richest province in Thailand be granted privileges that will make it richer. I am not a wild fan of the Democrats but I do consider but Korn and Aphisit to be fair and intelligent people and it is only in the interests of the Democrat party to do this.

9. Phuket will get its first casino.

In the possible event that Thailand does have casinos it will presumably go to ththe highest bidder rather than the best location. That would appear to place it around Pattaya.

10. Sex will still be the major draw of Patong's nightlife.

I think I have given vaguely justifiable reasons why I dont agree with most of your predictions but if I challenged that one...

[DrDave]

1. Tuk-tuk mafia will finally be broken and buses, maybe light railway will go ahead.

Probably not completely broken, but maybe regulated to some degree. Light rail - depends upon who stands to profit.

2. Thai laws will be changed to make it more difficult for foreigners to work, or, own a business.

Yup

3. There will be a major loss of life in Patong due to a building on a hillside coming down due to land slippage.

Absolutely no doubt about this one

4. The road from Patong to Chalong will finally be finished.

Only if one or more public officials stand to reap a profit, either through skimming or personal land sale.

5. The 80 metres above sea-level building restriction will be increased to 100 metres, regardless of #23.

See #4.

6. The Kangaroo Bar in Soi Bangla will still look the same.

7. There will be another plane crash at Phuket Airport.

8. Phuket will become a tax-free haven.

Not sure what's meant by this. Tax-free haven for expats? If so, then wouldn't all of Thailand be a tax-free haven, unless Phuket was turned into some sort of special administrative region? Most foreign governments are beginning to close the loopholes that allow citizens to escape taxes in their homeland.

9. Phuket will get its first casino.

If the government legalizes casinos, then Phuket will probably have the first one.

10. Sex will still be the major draw of Patong's nightlife.

But more in a nudge-nudge, wink-wink way on the backroads, rather than today's Bangla Road / beachfront, in-your-face kind of way.

[Sir Burr]

Clarification:-

#8 should read Phuket will become a Duty-Free zone.

[JetsetBkk]

I was followed by a taxi tonight down from Hayek Chalong to Rawai. It was yellow and red and had it's "For Hire" light on.

I could see farangs by roadside feinting with shock as it passed by.

[fiddlehead]

1/ There will be receptacles for placing garbage placed strategically around the island. (and emptied perhaps once a month)

2/ Everything below 20 meters will be completely covered in concrete (making most Thai Visa members very happy)

3/ There will be a team of lifeguards who can actually swim on at least one of the beaches. (this one is perhaps a bit doubtful)

4/ Taksin will be PM and serving rice on Bangla trying to prove that it is not pandemic.

5/ Cigarettes will be banned and a black market item available only from Tuk Tuk drivers (making them the most sought after folks on the island)

6/ Patong will become pedestrian only (except for Tuk Tuks of course)

7/ Marijuana will be legal and the only thing legal to smoke in bars.

8/ Foreigners will be allowed to own land. (Taksin will be pulling all stops to try to keep the money here once Myamar opens up to tourism and is the next "the place to go")

9/ Raw sewage will continue to be dumped into Patong beach (and of course the PM will be telling us it ain't so)

10/ There will be more banks than bars and they will take more and more of your money. (they will employ pickpockets so that you must use an ATM machine for every transaction and then charge you 100 baht each time you use it for their fees)

ps. yes, it's 5 am and i can't sleep. this has been fun. (and golf sure is boring to watch)

[HDRIDER]

Hi

There IS a road from Chalong to Patong, well not very good but its there, my friend took that road in his car, took 2 hours he say he will never do it again

[BigSnake]

Most farangs will opt to live in Phuket rather than Pattaya.

Land Prices will double

Bill Clinton will make a call on Phuket, Ms Hillary in tow

[Sir Burr]

Hi

There IS a road from Chalong to Patong, well not very good but its there, my friend took that road in his car, took 2 hours he say he will never do it again

It's been there for years and years.

There was a two kilometre stretch that got washed away about four years ago because it was never surfaced and it was very steep, and the present route now by-passes that bit.

Yet, the original route would be the best if there was some levelling and surfacing done.

I believe the present governor is trying to push it through again (like quite a few previous governors), but, the forestry department that actually owns this bit of land is digging in their heels (yet again).

There is hope, though, as the Mayor of Patong has been buying land up there.

Maybe, he knows something?

Edited May 11, 2009 by Sir Burr

[JetsetBkk]

Hi

There IS a road from Chalong to Patong, well not very good but its there, my friend took that road in his car, took 2 hours he say he will never do it again

It's been there for years and years.

There was a two kilometre stretch that got washed away about four years ago because it was never surfaced and it was very steep, and the present route now by-passes that bit.

Yet, the original route would be the best if there was some levelling and surfacing done.

I believe the present governor is trying to push it through again (like quite a few previous governors), but, the forestry department that actually owns this bit of land is digging in their heels (yet again).

There is hope, though, as the Mayor of Patong has been buying land up there.

Maybe, he knows something?

I find it difficult to believe anyone could drive a car up there. Maybe a 4WD pickup with extra big tyres and very high ground clearance. But a car?

[HDRIDER]

Hi

I was a 4x4 it was a few months back he did it, and they had to use logs and what they could find to do it

[Valentine]

Hi

There IS a road from Chalong to Patong, well not very good but its there, my friend took that road in his car, took 2 hours he say he will never do it again

It's been there for years and years.

There was a two kilometre stretch that got washed away about four years ago because it was never surfaced and it was very steep, and the present route now by-passes that bit.

Yet, the original route would be the best if there was some levelling and surfacing done.

I believe the present governor is trying to push it through again (like quite a few previous governors), but, the forestry department that actually owns this bit of land is digging in their heels (yet again).

There is hope, though, as the Mayor of Patong has been buying land up there.

Maybe, he knows something?

A few months ago we had the deputy mayor of Patong speak at the IBAP monthly meeting & at the time he said this road was going to be completed soon & jokingly suggested we should buy land. He also said the middle road through Patong would also be completed which would solve some of the traffic problems. Economic woes & financial constraints since then could very well delay the process.

Actually, from what part of Chao Fa West does this road start?

A fairly easy prediction is Bangkok like gridlock in some parts of Phuket. The proposed new roadworks will not help alleviate the burden on the small roads within Phuket Town where only enforceable restricted parking & a well thought out extension of the one way system can help in the immediate future while at the same time acquring land in order to widen existing roads at a later date.

Also an increase in road rage with the use of guns. Last year, at around 7pm, I witnessed a black sedan trying to run down a motorcyclist after turning right from Central down Chao Fa. A couple of shots were also fired from the sedan.

I totally agree with the landslide one as it has already happened in Patong with loss of life.

If hel_l freezes over within the next 10 years then there is a possibility, albeit remote, of reforming the tuk tuk problem.

[fiddlehead]

Actually, from what part of Chao Fa West does this road start?

Opposite the Wat Chalong entrance and a few hundred meters further north, there is a turn off to another Wat next to the golf course they are building.

You turn in, go past the Wat, up the hill and turn left at the yellow gate (that's about where the pic. was most likely taken that someone posted)

I watched two Thai guys on moto-cross bikes trying to get up that hill with their knobby tires and seriously doubt a 4 WD could get up there.

Unless they change the design and put in a few switchbacks, it'll be a deathtrap, it is too steep for vehicles.

[keemapoot]

I agree with Valentine about gridlock. Already unbearable traffic in Patong in high season will become increasingly bad. Already scarce to non-existent parking in Patong will make driving a car ever more frustrating. The roads will become increasingly swarmed with motorbikes, thereby increasing accidents. The new third road is already teeming with traffic, even though the road is not paved and full of potholes. Phuket town traffic will increase as well. The traffic between Patong and Kamala and all along the beach communities has gotten increasingly very heavy, even in low season. It's starting to resemble sort of an "unzoned Hawaii" in some respects.

I DO NOT ever see the taxi mafia being broken. Never. Any parking spaces will be malevolently occupied by ever increasing numbers of tuk tuks and private taxis. Any attempt to change this will result in road blockages by the tuk tuk mafia who represent all the local people in all the villages. Phuket will never see Songtaew service similar to Pattaya. We've already seen what happens in places like Bangtao or Kamala when the locals are unhappy for any reason. blockades.

Phuket will continue to be the most expensive place in Thailand. Those expats who enjoy being around tourists and all that that attracts, including unlimited restaurant choice, never having to learn Thai, etc., will continue to live and move to Phuket.

The rest of us who moved here when things were ideal are looking to move on. Phuket has already passed its sell-by date in most respects in my opinion. For those new expats or those who never want to learn to speak Thai, or those who are so firmly entrenched, Phuket will continue to be and will remain the most attractive place in Thailand.

[Macx]

Phuket will become Look Krueng Province with many modeling/acting/singing agencies.

Taxi thugs will be taxi thugs but more obnoxious.

Beaches/water will decline in quality.