G B P Warning For Brits; Possible Sterling Crisis !

[sanmiguellight]

At least Britain has admited the problem and has started to deal with it , Other Countrys have just ignored it and hope it goes away , or have not exactly told the truth, as to how much trouble they are in ,

No it hasnt Gordon justs wants to keep on spending, the problem in the UK is so deep rooted ie. an economy based on public sector jobs the taxpayer can no longer fund, Macdonald esq service sector jobs, too heavily reliant on financial services which now arent looking too rosey, the collapsing property market and endless lines of credit which have been funding the high street jobs ...... itll take at least a generation to start turning it around if Britain wants to get back to position that it was in before Maggie and Nulabour decided to destroy the economy for the richest at the top.

Edited July 12, 2009 by sanmiguellight

[DarloKnight]

I have found this thread a really intersting read. I am not educated enough to be able to comment on the worlds economies but I can tell you what I am seeing living here in the Uk. In February I was on Holiday in Thailand and did not know if I was going home to a job but what a difference 3 months can make the company I worked for had less than 100 employees back in Feb, we have nearly 300 now we have so much work and I have never known us be as busy other people who I speak to say they can't believe how things have turned around. Also I bought a brand new house a1 1/2 years ago and the developer stopped building on the site around 10 months ago because of the housing market but now they are starting building again on our site and the houses on here are not little apartments they are big 4/5 bed detached. I can't understand all the doom and gloom that is being written because it does look like things are starting to pick back up. Like I said I am not an expert

[LaoPo]

I have found this thread a really intersting read. I am not educated enough to be able to comment on the worlds economies but I can tell you what I am seeing living here in the Uk. In February I was on Holiday in Thailand and did not know if I was going home to a job but what a difference 3 months can make the company I worked for had less than 100 employees back in Feb, we have nearly 300 now we have so much work and I have never known us be as busy other people who I speak to say they can't believe how things have turned around. Also I bought a brand new house a1 1/2 years ago and the developer stopped building on the site around 10 months ago because of the housing market but now they are starting building again on our site and the houses on here are not little apartments they are big 4/5 bed detached. I can't understand all the doom and gloom that is being written because it does look like things are starting to pick back up. Like I said I am not an expert

Very encouraging words and view!

What business/work are you in if I may ask ? A rise of 300%, from 100 to 300 people, in workforce is mind boggling.

LaoPo

[DarloKnight]

I have found this thread a really intersting read. I am not educated enough to be able to comment on the worlds economies but I can tell you what I am seeing living here in the Uk. In February I was on Holiday in Thailand and did not know if I was going home to a job but what a difference 3 months can make the company I worked for had less than 100 employees back in Feb, we have nearly 300 now we have so much work and I have never known us be as busy other people who I speak to say they can't believe how things have turned around. Also I bought a brand new house a1 1/2 years ago and the developer stopped building on the site around 10 months ago because of the housing market but now they are starting building again on our site and the houses on here are not little apartments they are big 4/5 bed detached. I can't understand all the doom and gloom that is being written because it does look like things are starting to pick back up. Like I said I am not an expert

Very encouraging words and view!

What business/work are you in if I may ask ? A rise of 300%, from 100 to 300 people, in workforce is mind boggling.

LaoPo

I work in the glass industry, the Company employs contract packers they check glass containers that may have faults and then send them to customer to be filled, we work for all the large glass manufacturer's and things were really quiet across all of the glass industry at the begging of the year but the market as turned round and in the 5 years I have worked for the Comapany (I am the accountant) I have never known us be as busy. I know people who work in the window business and they say they are really busy as builders are starting to build again. Friends who work in supermarkets say sales are the same as last year they have not dipped. My borther-in-law owns a Hydraulic engineering firm and the same again. This is why I find it hard to undestand what some people are saying. I think we can see light at the end of the tunnel, I know house prices will never be the same not for a long time.

[sanmiguellight]

But in the last year England has had less new homes built then in anytime since the 2nd world war ... im too lazy to find a link to this but it was said in the last 2 weeks.

There were about 30,000 mortgage products at the height of the boom there are now only 3000 approx many of these you need a deposit of 30-40%, furthermore unemployment is rising rapidly, taxes are about to rise, i just cant see how there could be private property getting built on a scale even close to whats happened in the last 12 years, and it is still way overvalued in comparison to people wages hence its unaffordable.

[roamer]

I was also talking about the "doom & gloom" with a friend yesterday, we were reflecting on the fact neither of us had managed to park in a very full shopping centre and were having problems trying to find somewhere to eat because restaurant queues were too long. Recession...what recession ? Don't get me wrong, I'm aware that two swallows don't make a summer and there is a long way to go, maybe those queues won't be so long when the tax hikes start, there will be a lot less foreign holidays...but i think there is a begrudging acceptance that's going to happen. I still think that the institutions and the fundamentals are strong and transparent and we will weather this, I also think the majority of foreign investors feel the same and that there will be buyers for sterling, I don't see a run or even a slide, just a few bumps along the way.

I think that the SS Great Britain will keep afloat, I prefer the accommodation and decor on the Thaitanic but less sure about its navigational ability.

[sanmiguellight]

I was also talking about the "doom & gloom" with a friend yesterday, we were reflecting on the fact neither of us had managed to park in a very full shopping centre and were having problems trying to find somewhere to eat because restaurant queues were too long. Recession...what recession ?

If you were in any High Street in the country you couldnt have failed to have noticed that shops are closing down on a scale that has never seen before.

I still think that the institutions and the fundamentals are strong and transparent and we will weather this,

Which fundamentals are strong?

[DarloKnight]

I was also talking about the "doom & gloom" with a friend yesterday, we were reflecting on the fact neither of us had managed to park in a very full shopping centre and were having problems trying to find somewhere to eat because restaurant queues were too long. Recession...what recession ? Don't get me wrong, I'm aware that two swallows don't make a summer and there is a long way to go, maybe those queues won't be so long when the tax hikes start, there will be a lot less foreign holidays...but i think there is a begrudging acceptance that's going to happen. I still think that the institutions and the fundamentals are strong and transparent and we will weather this, I also think the majority of foreign investors feel the same and that there will be buyers for sterling, I don't see a run or even a slide, just a few bumps along the way.

I think that the SS Great Britain will keep afloat, I prefer the accommodation and decor on the Thaitanic but less sure about its navigational ability.

I agree Roamer, we still do have a long way to go but like you say we will have to suffer a few bumps on the way

[DarloKnight]

But in the last year England has had less new homes built then in anytime since the 2nd world war ... im too lazy to find a link to this but it was said in the last 2 weeks.

There were about 30,000 mortgage products at the height of the boom there are now only 3000 approx many of these you need a deposit of 30-40%, furthermore unemployment is rising rapidly, taxes are about to rise, i just cant see how there could be private property getting built on a scale even close to whats happened in the last 12 years, and it is still way overvalued in comparison to people wages hence its unaffordable.

I don't dispute what you are saying all I said was that developers where I live have started to build again, also I have noticed houses that have been on the market for sometime have now got sold signs on, a property next door to my friends sold within a week of being on the market, it looks like property is selling again maybe because people are being more realistic with the asking price? And as I also said iit will take the housing market some years to get back to how it was. Don't know if you saw the News on Friday but Nationwide are actually offering and advertising a 125% mortgage and as it happens alot of banks are offering this but as they quoted these were "under the counter" offers that the other banks are selling.

[roamer]

I was also talking about the "doom & gloom" with a friend yesterday, we were reflecting on the fact neither of us had managed to park in a very full shopping centre and were having problems trying to find somewhere to eat because restaurant queues were too long. Recession...what recession ?

If you were in any High Street in the country you couldnt have failed to have noticed that shops are closing down on a scale that has never seen before.

I still think that the institutions and the fundamentals are strong and transparent and we will weather this,

Which fundamentals are strong?

Well I wasn't in a High St was I ? I was in a shopping centre and they have been sounding the death knell for the traditional High st for years before this started, most of them have long been reduced to charity shops and Poundlands. No vacant units where I was but yes of course we know some retailers have and will continue to go to the wall. Both Woolworths and Primark operate(d) in the same economic climate, one went to the wall and the other recorded a 30% profit increase....why do you think that is ?

The fundamentals I refer to are that this is still a nation that invests in its future, probably foundations would have been a better term to have used.

[neil324]

But in the last year England has had less new homes built then in anytime since the 2nd world war ... im too lazy to find a link to this but it was said in the last 2 weeks.

There were about 30,000 mortgage products at the height of the boom there are now only 3000 approx many of these you need a deposit of 30-40%, furthermore unemployment is rising rapidly, taxes are about to rise, i just cant see how there could be private property getting built on a scale even close to whats happened in the last 12 years, and it is still way overvalued in comparison to people wages hence its unaffordable.

I don't dispute what you are saying all I said was that developers where I live have started to build again, also I have noticed houses that have been on the market for sometime have now got sold signs on, a property next door to my friends sold within a week of being on the market, it looks like property is selling again maybe because people are being more realistic with the asking price? And as I also said iit will take the housing market some years to get back to how it was. Don't know if you saw the News on Friday but Nationwide are actually offering and advertising a 125% mortgage and as it happens alot of banks are offering this but as they quoted these were "under the counter" offers that the other banks are selling.

I'm a bricklayer m8, the truth is its dead absolutely no work at all, period.

SSTC does not always mean it will complete, many break down before completion. Regards the Nationwide 125% mortgage, exsisting borrowers only, they need to find another 5% cash, punative rates.

[Chaimai]

I was also talking about the "doom & gloom" with a friend yesterday, we were reflecting on the fact neither of us had managed to park in a very full shopping centre and were having problems trying to find somewhere to eat because restaurant queues were too long. Recession...what recession ?

If you were in any High Street in the country you couldnt have failed to have noticed that shops are closing down on a scale that has never seen before.

I still think that the institutions and the fundamentals are strong and transparent and we will weather this,

Which fundamentals are strong?

CRAP ! Speak for your own area (I have posted before about pockets of sh!te) my High St has 2 empty shops and one of those is Woolworths. In the last recession there wrer 6+ commercial properties vacant. The reasons are obvious.

[Chaimai]

But in the last year England has had less new homes built then in anytime since the 2nd world war ... im too lazy to find a link to this but it was said in the last 2 weeks.

There were about 30,000 mortgage products at the height of the boom there are now only 3000 approx many of these you need a deposit of 30-40%, furthermore unemployment is rising rapidly, taxes are about to rise, i just cant see how there could be private property getting built on a scale even close to whats happened in the last 12 years, and it is still way overvalued in comparison to people wages hence its unaffordable.

I don't dispute what you are saying all I said was that developers where I live have started to build again, also I have noticed houses that have been on the market for sometime have now got sold signs on, a property next door to my friends sold within a week of being on the market, it looks like property is selling again maybe because people are being more realistic with the asking price? And as I also said iit will take the housing market some years to get back to how it was. Don't know if you saw the News on Friday but Nationwide are actually offering and advertising a 125% mortgage and as it happens alot of banks are offering this but as they quoted these were "under the counter" offers that the other banks are selling.

I'm a bricklayer m8, the truth is its dead absolutely no work at all, period.

SSTC does not always mean it will complete, many break down before completion. Regards the Nationwide 125% mortgage, exsisting borrowers only, they need to find another 5% cash, punative rates.

Forget the hyperbole of 125% mortgage loan to values - I hope we never see them again, except perhaps for legal trainess or other professionals. The fact remains that were actually over 8,000 mainstream mortgages available 18 months or so ago and now I would dispute the figure of 3,000.

Remember -John Prescott said that demand dictated that we needed 1m new homes in the South East. That demand has not disappeared - it is dormant but the lack of credit means that it could remain that way for another year or 2. There is a shortage of good new (or used) properties on the market and I would echo Darloknight's comment that if a property is marketed at the right price it will now find a buyer.

[neil324]

I was also talking about the "doom & gloom" with a friend yesterday, we were reflecting on the fact neither of us had managed to park in a very full shopping centre and were having problems trying to find somewhere to eat because restaurant queues were too long. Recession...what recession ?

If you were in any High Street in the country you couldnt have failed to have noticed that shops are closing down on a scale that has never seen before.

I still think that the institutions and the fundamentals are strong and transparent and we will weather this,

Which fundamentals are strong?

CRAP ! Speak for your own area (I have posted before about pockets of sh!te) my High St has 2 empty shops and one of those is Woolworths. In the last recession there wrer 6+ commercial properties vacant. The reasons are obvious.

Are you saying that the last recession was worse than this one?

[DarloKnight]

I have got to admit I remember during the miners strike that more shops struggled in the area I live in and a lot of local business closed then, everyone suffered in the town I lived in has the miners not working and not spending had a knock on effect to everyone. I also remember kids in my class at school lost there houses. Also my dad was a lorry driver and he had now work as they moved coal. So I remember things being alot worse than they are now.

I think the "doom and gloom" is in the press so much just to slow us all down on our spending and to scare us in to spending less.

I went to the York races Friday the tickets for the area we were in were £150 + vat the area was packed and this was only one of the lounges, people are still spending!

[sanmiguellight]

CRAP ! Speak for your own area (I have posted before about pockets of sh!te) my High St has 2 empty shops and one of those is Woolworths. In the last recession there wrer 6+ commercial properties vacant. The reasons are obvious.

Your saying the High St isnt suffering which is quite clearly wrong, it has been funded by credit and money that never existed for the last 10 years, this has dried up for many.

Ive been to Rotherham, Bournemouth, Beverley, Hull, York, Newcastle, Sunderland, Southampton in the last 6 months all of them have masses of shops closed that includes the shops before you get into town. The only town ive been to that seemed it didnt have problems was Oxford this was absolutely jam packed with students last week, and the out of town pubs were full on a Thursday.

Ive also been to several towns in Holland and this is the only place where there wasnt a noticeable amount of shop closures.

Edited July 12, 2009 by sanmiguellight

[sanmiguellight]

I have got to admit I remember during the miners strike that more shops struggled in the area I live in and a lot of local business closed then, everyone suffered in the town I lived in has the miners not working and not spending had a knock on effect to everyone. I also remember kids in my class at school lost there houses. Also my dad was a lorry driver and he had now work as they moved coal. So I remember things being alot worse than they are now.

I lived in Newcastle at this time and it was a similar situation plus you had the shipyards closing at the same time so things were fcuked in this area then, but if you went down South it was boom time as usual and you wouldnt have known there were problems anywhere .... this time IMO it seems to have affected everywhere.

[sanmiguellight]

......

Edited July 12, 2009 by sanmiguellight

[LaoPo]

CRAP ! Speak for your own area (I have posted before about pockets of sh!te) my High St has 2 empty shops and one of those is Woolworths. In the last recession there wrer 6+ commercial properties vacant. The reasons are obvious.

Your saying the High St isnt suffering which is quite clearly wrong, it has been funded by credit and money that never existed for the last 10 years, this has dried up for many.

Ive been to Rotherham, Bournemouth, Beverley, Hull, York, Newcastle, Sunderland, Southampton in the last 6 months all of them have masses of shops closed that includes the shops before you get into town. The only town ive been to that seemed it didnt have problems was Oxford this was absolutely jam packed with students last week, and the out of town pubs were full on a Thursday.

Ive also been to several towns in Holland and this is the only place where there wasnt a noticeable amount of shop closures.

But, I assure you, there are many empty shops in main streets and shopping malls all over the country.

In many cases the real estate owners prefer to dress the (empty) windows with merchandise from the neighbours in order to have it look better.

This was common practice in the '80's in Canada and the US as well.

LaoPo

[marshbags]

Best Currency Report: July 2009

Posted by Catherine Deshayes on Friday, July 10, 2009

Foreign Exchange specialists Currency UK take a look at what is happening to the pound and the effects it will have on businesses, households and travel - and although the sterling has bounced back from its low in March this year, it is still way off its peak of a year ago...

The strength of sterling is a major issue for the vast majority of businesses and households in the UK. The global economic crisis has seen the pound drop like a stone in value when held up against other currencies such as the US dollar and the euro.

Whilst UK exporters have enjoyed the weaker pound as it makes their products more competitive in the world market, it also paints a bigger picture about the stability of the UK economy and it isn't too positive a story just about now.

Travelling abroad, especially to Europe, has become much more expensive for us Brits, as has buying imported goods.

Meanwhile, the UK tourism sector has benefited, with increasing numbers of Americans and Europeans taking advantage of cheaper British holidays.

Now, whilst the pound has risen from its lowest ebb of $1.35 in March this year and has been boosted slightly by signs that the recession could be coming to an end, it is still far lower than its peak of $2 over a year ago.

Industry bods are now looking ahead to when interest rates might rise once more, which would signal a return to more positive territory for the UK market as it would mean bigger returns, thus attracting foreign investors and pushing up the pound.

What to expect next

Many economists believe it is the euro which is likely to come under the most pressure this year and next rather than the pound or the dollar.

As there is no more room for any further interest rate cuts, quantitative easing has come into play, which, in very rough terms means printing more money. Historically, printing a lot of currency hasn't had a positive effect on an economy - for example in Zimbabwe when £100,000 wouldn't even buy a loaf of bread - but if it can stave off deflation then this may well be positive for the pound in the longer term.

The more in demand the pound is the stronger it will become, so a continued recovery in world and UK stock markets -which is what is predicted - would give a huge boost to sterling.

Unquote

Ref Url :- http://www.themovechannel.com/features/e23b0aeb-a7a2/

P.S.

There is work about for skilled bricklayers and building industry associated workers.

You just have to be prepared to travel to find it and be prepared to live away from home when the distances are to far to cover daily.

Instead of greedy landlords charging unrealistic rates and rents while seemingly ignoring the downturn and it,s effects on spending, which in turn is far less than it was before, they should adjust accordingly or as is well know in Thailand the high street properties will continue to close and will stay empty for some time to come.

A reasonable rent ect. is far better than no rent / income for the landlords as they still have to pay their bills

Zero income is not going to improve their lot anytime soon, that,s for sure.

IMHO as always

marshbags

Edited July 12, 2009 by marshbags

[caf]

As I remember the last time the IMF told The Uk that We were not up to standards, and through us out , The pound flurished, The Euro is unstable, because of the down turn in the world econamy, Small Countries cannot keep contributing to the IMF, to keep the value of the Euro High.The dollor is used by countries that are not American so that can affect its value,The Russian ruble has its problems , So has the Chines yen, Even India , Britain is not a safe bet but I would put my Money on it to recover better than most, At least Britain has admited the problem and has started to deal with it , Other Countrys have just ignored it and hope it goes away , or have not exactly told the truth, as to how much trouble they are in ,

"Britain is not a safe bet but I would put my Money on it to recover better than most, At least Britain has admited the problem and has started to deal with it , Other Countrys have just ignored it and hope it goes away , or have not exactly told the truth, as to how much trouble they are in"

Yes that is exactly my point Thornkorn. One needs to consider the relative strengths of both currencies in the future given likely future events and how the politicians react to them

[caf]

As I remember the last time the IMF told The Uk that We were not up to standards, and through us out , The pound flurished, The Euro is unstable, because of the down turn in the world econamy, Small Countries cannot keep contributing to the IMF, to keep the value of the Euro High.The dollor is used by countries that are not American so that can affect its value,The Russian ruble has its problems , So has the Chines yen, Even India , Britain is not a safe bet but I would put my Money on it to recover better than most, At least Britain has admited the problem and has started to deal with it , Other Countrys have just ignored it and hope it goes away , or have not exactly told the truth, as to how much trouble they are in ,

1. China has the Renminbi currency, shortened RMB, which consists of Yuan units. Japan has the Yen.

2. That's pure nonsense. Every single country in the world is fully aware about their own current financial and economical problems.

Now you suggest that Britain is the only country that has shown it's bare butt by admitting it's problems and is honest to itself and their citizens....really ?

I think you will burn yourself quite severely when you put all of your money on the GBP and/or in the country's assets now like you say.

LaoPo

Now you suggest that Britain is the only country that has shown its bare butt by admitting its problems and is honest to itself and their citizens....really ?

The poster didn't say UK was the only country; but are you saying your comment applies to Thailand?

[dbrenn]

I was also talking about the "doom & gloom" with a friend yesterday, we were reflecting on the fact neither of us had managed to park in a very full shopping centre and were having problems trying to find somewhere to eat because restaurant queues were too long. Recession...what recession ? Don't get me wrong, I'm aware that two swallows don't make a summer and there is a long way to go, maybe those queues won't be so long when the tax hikes start, there will be a lot less foreign holidays...but i think there is a begrudging acceptance that's going to happen. I still think that the institutions and the fundamentals are strong and transparent and we will weather this, I also think the majority of foreign investors feel the same and that there will be buyers for sterling, I don't see a run or even a slide, just a few bumps along the way.

I think that the SS Great Britain will keep afloat, I prefer the accommodation and decor on the Thaitanic but less sure about its navigational ability.

I agree - all these stories about how the UK is doomed sell newspapers, but I'm sure that the place will muddle through. Sure, there will have to be some belt tightening, but life goes on.

[caf]

At least Britain has admited the problem and has started to deal with it , Other Countrys have just ignored it and hope it goes away , or have not exactly told the truth, as to how much trouble they are in ,

No it hasnt Gordon justs wants to keep on spending, the problem in the UK is so deep rooted ie. an economy based on public sector jobs the taxpayer can no longer fund, Macdonald esq service sector jobs, too heavily reliant on financial services which now arent looking too rosey, the collapsing property market and endless lines of credit which have been funding the high street jobs ...... itll take at least a generation to start turning it around if Britain wants to get back to position that it was in before Maggie and Nulabour decided to destroy the economy for the richest at the top.

I agree but you are talking short term. Gordon may say he is not cutting but that does not mean he is not doing so. There is a lot of spin and changing of definitions on how figures are calculated going on. Look at pmq and the faces of the cabinet when gordon is confronted with his own treasury figures by Cameron.

Tax hikes and cuts will happen whichever government is in power next year. But the problems are admitted ( albeit by rather devious means at question time)

[caf]

I think that the SS Great Britain will keep afloat, I prefer the accommodation and decor on the Thaitanic but less sure about its navigational ability.

We need to get back to some very basic common sense. That is more likely to happen in the UK as the problems are sort of being admitted. There are too many so-called professionals trying to call the shots instead of coming down to earth and seeing things as they are in reality.

The Thaitanic is crewed by professionals, Noah's Ark was crewed by amateurs with common sense. Which one sank?

[sanmiguellight]

I agree but you are talking short term. Gordon may say he is not cutting but that does not mean he is not doing so. There is a lot of spin and changing of definitions on how figures are calculated going on. Look at pmq and the faces of the cabinet when gordon is confronted with his own treasury figures by Cameron.

Yes both parties will cut public spending by tinkering around the edges and raise taxes, but there needs to be a huge cull in public sector workers and their over inflated pensions that those in the private sector are funding .... this isnt going to happen IMHO, and Britain will muddle along in denial.

[Spee]

I agree but you are talking short term. Gordon may say he is not cutting but that does not mean he is not doing so. There is a lot of spin and changing of definitions on how figures are calculated going on. Look at pmq and the faces of the cabinet when gordon is confronted with his own treasury figures by Cameron.

Yes both parties will cut public spending by tinkering around the edges and raise taxes, but there needs to be a huge cull in public sector workers and their over inflated pensions that those in the private sector are funding .... this isnt going to happen IMHO, and Britain will muddle along in denial.

It's not possible for the UK to muddle along. The numbers just don't add up. As the other posters have indicated, Britain has reached the point to where the private sector can no longer afford to fund the public sector, yet the public sector continues to grow and grow. There is only one thing that will happen to try to "fix" the problem and that is printing more paper. Can anyone say "hello inflation?"

If it were only the UK doing this, then maybe things wouldn't be so bad. But the US is deficit spending on such a massive scale that there is not a single person who dares to try and produce numbers to say it makes sound economic sense. There is no way that the private sector can fund such massive expenditures. So the treasury is printing money like total madmen. Again, the only result is going to be massive inflation.

My question is what is going to happen to places like Thailand when two of the world's leading economies have both adopted economic policies that are sheer and utter madness? The initial effect is going to be losses of tourism and expats. But what about the long term, macro effects? Will Thailand undergo massive recession to the point where it is once again preferable to work in the agrarian sector versus in the cities? I don't know but I worry about it.

I wish countries like the UK and US would take their medicine, accept the mistakes, and implement sound economic policies lke tax cuts, spending cuts and set percentage reductions in the size and scope of government, and get their fingers the fu_ck out of the private sector. We would be better off as citizens and developing countries like Thailand would certainly be better off in terms of international commerce.

[mommysboy]

Best Currency Report: July 2009

Posted by Catherine Deshayes on Friday, July 10, 2009

Foreign Exchange specialists Currency UK take a look at what is happening to the pound and the effects it will have on businesses, households and travel - and although the sterling has bounced back from its low in March this year, it is still way off its peak of a year ago...

The strength of sterling is a major issue for the vast majority of businesses and households in the UK. The global economic crisis has seen the pound drop like a stone in value when held up against other currencies such as the US dollar and the euro.

Whilst UK exporters have enjoyed the weaker pound as it makes their products more competitive in the world market, it also paints a bigger picture about the stability of the UK economy and it isn't too positive a story just about now.

Travelling abroad, especially to Europe, has become much more expensive for us Brits, as has buying imported goods.

Meanwhile, the UK tourism sector has benefited, with increasing numbers of Americans and Europeans taking advantage of cheaper British holidays.

Now, whilst the pound has risen from its lowest ebb of $1.35 in March this year and has been boosted slightly by signs that the recession could be coming to an end, it is still far lower than its peak of $2 over a year ago.

Industry bods are now looking ahead to when interest rates might rise once more, which would signal a return to more positive territory for the UK market as it would mean bigger returns, thus attracting foreign investors and pushing up the pound.

What to expect next

Many economists believe it is the euro which is likely to come under the most pressure this year and next rather than the pound or the dollar.

As there is no more room for any further interest rate cuts, quantitative easing has come into play, which, in very rough terms means printing more money. Historically, printing a lot of currency hasn't had a positive effect on an economy - for example in Zimbabwe when £100,000 wouldn't even buy a loaf of bread - but if it can stave off deflation then this may well be positive for the pound in the longer term.

The more in demand the pound is the stronger it will become, so a continued recovery in world and UK stock markets -which is what is predicted - would give a huge boost to sterling.

Unquote

Ref Url :- http://www.themovechannel.com/features/e23b0aeb-a7a2/

P.S.

There is work about for skilled bricklayers and building industry associated workers.

You just have to be prepared to travel to find it and be prepared to live away from home when the distances are to far to cover daily.

Instead of greedy landlords charging unrealistic rates and rents while seemingly ignoring the downturn and it,s effects on spending, which in turn is far less than it was before, they should adjust accordingly or as is well know in Thailand the high street properties will continue to close and will stay empty for some time to come.

A reasonable rent ect. is far better than no rent / income for the landlords as they still have to pay their bills

Zero income is not going to improve their lot anytime soon, that,s for sure.

IMHO as always

marshbags

It's a fair appraisal and a best bet about what will happen, but there is one possibility that could completely derail this: if for instance more banking bail outs were needed and the Government decided to take on yet more debt, then the pound would need to be devalued for sure, and possibly we'd be talking IMF territory.

It's still unlikely, but one bank is clearly in further trouble, Lloydstsb, and is about to announce yet more multi billion pound write downs. The Govt has no alternative but to bail out again too! It could be LBG has enough provision to cover the debt, but if not UK PLC is in trouble and I'd expect to see 1.40 against the dollar and possibly 45bt to the pound short term.

Very much a worse case scenario.

[caf]

Best Currency Report: July 2009

Posted by Catherine Deshayes on Friday, July 10, 2009

Foreign Exchange specialists Currency UK take a look at what is happening to the pound and the effects it will have on businesses, households and travel - and although the sterling has bounced back from its low in March this year, it is still way off its peak of a year ago...

The strength of sterling is a major issue for the vast majority of businesses and households in the UK. The global economic crisis has seen the pound drop like a stone in value when held up against other currencies such as the US dollar and the euro.

Whilst UK exporters have enjoyed the weaker pound as it makes their products more competitive in the world market, it also paints a bigger picture about the stability of the UK economy and it isn't too positive a story just about now.

Travelling abroad, especially to Europe, has become much more expensive for us Brits, as has buying imported goods.

Meanwhile, the UK tourism sector has benefited, with increasing numbers of Americans and Europeans taking advantage of cheaper British holidays.

Now, whilst the pound has risen from its lowest ebb of $1.35 in March this year and has been boosted slightly by signs that the recession could be coming to an end, it is still far lower than its peak of $2 over a year ago.

Industry bods are now looking ahead to when interest rates might rise once more, which would signal a return to more positive territory for the UK market as it would mean bigger returns, thus attracting foreign investors and pushing up the pound.

What to expect next

Many economists believe it is the euro which is likely to come under the most pressure this year and next rather than the pound or the dollar.

As there is no more room for any further interest rate cuts, quantitative easing has come into play, which, in very rough terms means printing more money. Historically, printing a lot of currency hasn't had a positive effect on an economy - for example in Zimbabwe when £100,000 wouldn't even buy a loaf of bread - but if it can stave off deflation then this may well be positive for the pound in the longer term.

The more in demand the pound is the stronger it will become, so a continued recovery in world and UK stock markets -which is what is predicted - would give a huge boost to sterling.

Unquote

Ref Url :- http://www.themovechannel.com/features/e23b0aeb-a7a2/

P.S.

There is work about for skilled bricklayers and building industry associated workers.

You just have to be prepared to travel to find it and be prepared to live away from home when the distances are to far to cover daily.

Instead of greedy landlords charging unrealistic rates and rents while seemingly ignoring the downturn and it,s effects on spending, which in turn is far less than it was before, they should adjust accordingly or as is well know in Thailand the high street properties will continue to close and will stay empty for some time to come.

A reasonable rent ect. is far better than no rent / income for the landlords as they still have to pay their bills

Zero income is not going to improve their lot anytime soon, that,s for sure.

IMHO as always

marshbags

It's a fair appraisal and a best bet about what will happen, but there is one possibility that could completely derail this: if for instance more banking bail outs were needed and the Government decided to take on yet more debt, then the pound would need to be devalued for sure, and possibly we'd be talking IMF territory.

It's still unlikely, but one bank is clearly in further trouble, Lloydstsb, and is about to announce yet more multi billion pound write downs. The Govt has no alternative but to bail out again too! It could be LBG has enough provision to cover the debt, but if not UK PLC is in trouble and I'd expect to see 1.40 against the dollar and possibly 45bt to the pound short term.

Very much a worse case scenario.

You could be right short term about the pound.

But don't forget the baht. The exchange rate takes in effects on both currencies. Long term the baht looks to be in bigger trouble than the pound, particularly as less money is coming in.

retreating to the agrarian sector is very likely, the thai tourist industry has always been played down at 7% ??

--- so where did the reserves come from. what percentage of capital injection from overseas for house purchase ( later sold), sinsod, and the sex industry needs to be added to the 7%. That's anyone's guess.

and if that disappears what happens to the baht.

and the political and other issues may have a greater effect than economic issues.

[mommysboy]

I agree but you are talking short term. Gordon may say he is not cutting but that does not mean he is not doing so. There is a lot of spin and changing of definitions on how figures are calculated going on. Look at pmq and the faces of the cabinet when gordon is confronted with his own treasury figures by Cameron.

Yes both parties will cut public spending by tinkering around the edges and raise taxes, but there needs to be a huge cull in public sector workers and their over inflated pensions that those in the private sector are funding .... this isnt going to happen IMHO, and Britain will muddle along in denial.

There will be swingeing cuts for sure. I don't think UK is in denial at all if anything the opposite. Pensions will be cut there's no money left to pay them, but it's not a vote winner so you wouldn't expect any party to shout it from the rooftops.