1,200 Thais Likely To Die Of Flu

[webfact]

1,200 Thais likely to die of flu

30 million could catch virus over three years

By: POST REPORTERS

Published: 11/07/2009 at 12:00 AM

Newspaper section: News

Up to 30 million Thais are likely to contract influenza type-A (H1N1) and up to 1,200 people could possibly die from it, the Public Health Ministry says.

Of those who contract the virus, only 30,000-130,000 would have symptoms serious enough to warrant hospital admission, said Prasert Thongcharoen, chairman of the ministry's subcommittee overseeing the response to the A (H1N1) flu outbreak.

The figures are based on the panel's estimate that the pandemic will last from one to three years.

story continues: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/2002...y-to-die-of-flu

-- Bangkok Post 2009/07/11

[Livinginexile]

Swine flu... phooey!

First it was SARS, then it was bird flu, then it was horse flu and now pig flu. In the end all of them proved to be little worst than the common cold!

Far more people die each year from complications resulting from a common cold.

What a scam!

[soundman]

Moved to News Clippings.

[singa-traz]

In the same three years more than 40,000 would die on the road ...

[Carib]

[webfact]

The figures are based on the panel's estimate that the pandemic will last from one to three years.

I was just wondering how do they actually estimate that???

[The Vulcan]

That's nigh on 50% of the population!

The GF's gotta go now for sure.

[iko]

Frankly speaking, I'm more worried about gonorrhea.

[Jingthing]

This is classified as a pandemic due to its global ease of spreading. The rate of infection, 50 percent of the total population is typical of a pandemic. A typical seasonal flu (unlike a pandemic) infects 10 percent of the total population. However, the projected fatality per case rate on 30 million people is VERY LOW, and I don't believe it. It is likely to be much higher than that. BTW, the USA now projects already one million Americans infected. This is not the same as reported cases, which are a tiny portion of that.

People should be clear that a pandemic is not the same as a seasonal flu. For example, should a good vaccine be developed, the top priority target group for this pandemic will be CHILDREN, and not old people as this case in a seasonal flu. There will definitely not be enough vaccine to dose everyone.

Edited July 11, 2009 by Jingthing

[gmac]

If the fatality rate is really just 0.004% as shown by these figures what's all the panic about? I'm sure common or garden flu kills more and certainly the roads, drugs, drinking, etc. kill far more. Maybe a lot of people (50% over 3 years?) will catch it but so what, it lays you low for a few days, hardly seems worth all the hype.

[Jingthing]

If the fatality rate is really just 0.004% as shown by these figures what's all the panic about?

There is no reason to panic. There is also no reason to believe the fatality per case rate will ultimately be nearly that low.

[bojo]

In the same three years more than 40,000 would die on the road ...

I read an article, written by a Thai journalist in the Bangkok post a few years ago which quite unbiasedly quoted road related deaths in the kingdom at over 35K annually compared to France 8K and the UK 3K.

Regards Bojo

[sibeymai]

In the same three years more than 40,000 would die on the road ...

Exactly.

[cdnvic]

This could be the worst thing to happen since that time we all died of SARS.

Any correlation between the likelihood of pandemics, and competition between news networks? It's like we simply MUST have a new pandemic threat every year now instead of once a decade like was normal in the past.

Edited July 11, 2009 by cdnvic

[Jingthing]

Any correlation between the likelihood of pandemics

This is ALREADY a pandemic.

[jackdanielsesq]

Hopefully by next year we can expect a Wild Turkey flu variant, have very large, wild parties beach parties

every Friday eve, drink & <removed> ourselves into oblivion, replete with very large grins & in near perfect health.

BR>Jack

[cdnvic]

Any correlation between the likelihood of pandemics

This is ALREADY a pandemic.

Only of news stories.

pan·dem·ic

Pronunciation: pan-'dem-ik

Function: adjective

: occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting anexceptionally high proportion of the population

dictionary.com

pan⋅ic

1  /ˈpænɪk/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [pan-ik] Show IPA noun, adjective, verb, -icked, -ick⋅ing.

Use panic in a Sentence

–noun

1. a sudden overwhelming fear, with or without cause, that produces hysterical or irrational behavior, and that often spreads quickly through a group of persons or animals.

dictionary.com

[Jingthing]

Only of news stories.

That is the projection based on the expertise of the scientists. Typically pandemics infect at least 40 percent of the global population. That is the projection. Only time will tell. Perhaps you are confused because you expect this to happen in a week. No. It takes months or years.

[cdnvic]

Only of news stories.

That is the projection based on the expertise of the scientists. Typically pandemics infect at least 40 percent of the global population. That is the projection. Only time will tell. Perhaps you are confused because you expect this to happen in a week. No. It takes months or years.

No, I've just seen irrational panics over the years that nothing really came of. A couple years ago there were members of this board stockpiling weapons for when the masses invaded their compounds as bird flu decimated the countryside.

[jackdanielsesq]

I was always under the impression that consultants always charged more for 'guesstimates' - ergo more correct?!

BR>Jack

[Jingthing]

Only of news stories.

That is the projection based on the expertise of the scientists. Typically pandemics infect at least 40 percent of the global population. That is the projection. Only time will tell. Perhaps you are confused because you expect this to happen in a week. No. It takes months or years.

No, I've just seen irrational panics over the years that nothing really came of. A couple years ago there were members of this board stockpiling weapons for when the masses invaded their compounds as bird flu decimated the countryside.

Again, I think you are misinformed.

"Bird flu" and SARS never become officially classified PANDEMICS.

The current H1N1 virus IS officially classified a pandemic and there is no controversy about that. This means at least 40 percent of the world population will become infected. This does not imply how mild or severe it eventually becomes, that is unknown. Also, if a person gets a vaccine, obviously they will not usually be infected.

[ukrules]

If the fatality rate is really just 0.004% as shown by these figures what's all the panic about? I'm sure common or garden flu kills more and certainly the roads, drugs, drinking, etc. kill far more. Maybe a lot of people (50% over 3 years?) will catch it but so what, it lays you low for a few days, hardly seems worth all the hype.

Based on the current number of deaths / cases 'admitted' to the death rate is actually much higher than 0.004%

[ukrules]

It will be interesting to see what happens if an outbreak of this flu happens in a prison. It already caused a riot in one US prison during the week.

I guess they will be ok so long as they aren't overcrowded and any infections are treated as top priority and people isolated.

Edited July 12, 2009 by ukrules

[Shazza]

I think my son had it last week.. he usually gets most things that are going around... he had high temperature, achy body, vomitted a couple of times, slept a lot, had sore eyes... he's ok now but a little weary... I may have had it but have been busy taking care of him...

[mskiller]

well thaksin killed more in less time with his war on drugs...

[Godders]

Yesterday's newspaper reports forecasting 1,200 predicted deaths from swine 'flu are misleading, to say the least. The true figure, based upon 30 million infections at the current mortality rate, is 120,000 plus, unless my calculator has gone on the blink. One is accustomed to the activities of government spin doctors and their journalistic lackeys, but I cannot believe the

the complacency of so many of your posters.

Get your heads out of the sai for a moment and look at what is happening in your own backyard. The number of cases here is rising forty-fold. Government laboratories cannot keep up with the demand for virus testing, even though the pandemic is in its infancy. There will be no vaccine available until November at the earliest - and then only for a lucky few intially.. Nobody knows how effective the vaccine will be, because viruses tend to mutate very quickly. The current virus is already showing signs of resistance to anti viral drugs, which carry their own risks and which are pretty unless you take them before you have caught the virus. Thailand has no coherent nation-wide initiative to protect high-risk groups, such as the elderly and the very young.

Now look a little further afield. In my own own country, Britain, which has the third highest level of swine 'flu infections after the US and Mexico, one of the longest established and sophisticated public health care systems in the world is already creaking under the strain of dealing with the first wave of victims and suspected sufferers. Hospitals were warned yesterday to prepare to suspend all but emergency operations in order to cope with the expected flood of swine 'flu patients. A national help line set up for people who suspect they have the virus is taking ten hours to answer calls - or in some cases not bothering to answer at all.

Soothing epithets such as the one about driving on Thai roads being more hazardous than swine 'flu misses the point. You can choose whether or not to put your life at risk by venturing on toThailand's risky roads. But you cannot choose whether or not to catch swine 'flu. It is going to happen to half of us, irrespective of what preventative measures we may take. But that should not make us complacent. Quite the reverse. I have five children and I take very seriously the fact that statistically two or three of them are likely to get the 'flu (in actual fact, with seven of us living in a confined space, the chances are we will all become infected). I shall be doing all I can, including stocking up on Vitamin C, which apparently helps fight off the disease, and seeking sources for vaccinations, once they become available, to minimise the impact of the virus on my family.

One last point. The 'flu pandemic is not simply a health issue. It has a chilling economic perspective. Already we have seen private tutorial schools in Bangkok closed and internet cafes across the country urged to follow their lead. A similar fate awaits factories and other businesses as the virus spreads. If mortality levels rise to 5 per cent per 100 infections, airports will be closed and border controls imposed, with catastrophic effects on exporters and importers. Once international tourism and trade will grind to a halt, it doesn't take an Einstein to imagine what will happen to a world economy already reeling from the biggest financial disaster for more than half a century.

I'm not a gloom-monger. I just think the facts speak for themselves - loud enough, I would have thought, even for anyone with their head buried in the sand to hear.

[cdnvic]

I'm not a gloom-monger. I just think the facts speak for themselves - loud enough, I would have thought, even for anyone with their head buried in the sand to hear.

Well, we've heard people like you running around screaming that the sky was falling many times here, and they all accused those who reacted with rational thought rather than panic as having their heads in the sands. It's not that we don't eye up the situation and take precaution when we see fit, it's that we know that panicking and crying doom do absolutely nothing to help the situation. If anything, it drowns out rational discussion and actually impedes the spread of info on the flu becausee people see panicky posts like that and write it off as yet another outburst from the tin foil hat brigade.

[christcourt]

Well I for one am going to keep my eyes and ears open. Seem the UK health authority are planning to immunize the whole population due to the first death of a healthy man. They fear the Swine flu may have mutated to a stronger second strain of the same virus. Hopely this forward planning will give the UK population a better chance of withstanding the second virus strain. The UK weather [4 seasons] sees most people getting a cold or flu like symptoms at least once a year and that builds up our immune system. But I'm not sure about Thailand's population or the government powers to deal with the situation should the second virus strain hit. I'm at present more worried about going to the UK in 3 weeks for my son's wedding as my Thai wife and her son are coming with me. I'f there's a chance of immunizing my family I'll get it done privately to avoid what maybe coming our way.

[neverdie]

Walking around Bkk last week I noticed alot of thais wearing those cheap face masks, you can get a pack of 6 for a few baht....i thought to myself .

Thankfully I have stocked up on my valved N95 masks, as well as tinned food and extra ammunition....I wonder if theres anything else I have forgotten

[gunnyd]

What is truly scary is the plan in the US to vaccinate for swine flu en mass in the fall. I know this is not Thailand related but they may get the same idea.

in 1976 the swine flu killed 1 the vaccine killed 25, and caused a reported 500+ cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS)

Swine flu shots at school: Bracing for fall return

Jul 9, 2009 (4:36p CDT)

By LAURAN NEERGAARD (AP Medical Writer)

WASHINGTON - U.S. swine flu vaccinations could begin in October with children among the first in line - at their local schools - the Obama administration said Thursday as the president and his Cabinet urged states to figure out now how they'll tackle the virus' all-but-certain resurgence.

"We may end up averting a crisis. That's our hope," said President Barack Obama, who took time away from the G-8 summit in Italy to telephone another summit back home - the 500 state and local health officials meeting to prepare for swine flu's fall threat.

No final decision has been made on whether to vaccinate Americans, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius stressed. That depends largely on studies with experimental batches that are set to start the first week of August - to see if they're safe and seem to work and to learn whether they require one or two doses.

But if all goes well, the federal government will buy vaccine from manufacturers and share it for free among the states, which must then "try and get this in the arms of the targeted population as soon as possible," Sebelius said.

First in line probably will be school-age children, young adults with risky conditions such as asthma, pregnant women and health workers, she said. Unlike regular winter flu, the swine flu seems more dangerous to these groups than to older people.

"Schools are natural places" to offer those vaccines, Education Secretary Arne Duncan said.

Go home and get schools, mayors and other community leaders to spread that message, Sebelius said.

"The last thing we want is millions of parents to be surprised" the day the get-your-kid-vaccinated-at-school note comes home, she said.

Schools do occasionally team up with local health officials for special flu vaccination clinics, but it's not common. More than 140 schools around the country scheduled flu vaccination days last fall, some providing free vaccine. Some vaccinated only students bearing parent consent forms; others opened their doors to entire families.

It will be a confusing fall, Sebelius acknowledged. Doctors' offices, clinics and even grocery stores will be in the midst of dispensing 100 million-plus doses of regular winter flu vaccine - and the swine flu vaccine, which will roll out slowly, will require at least one completely separate inoculation.

"We know a mass vaccination program of even modest scale will involve extraordinary effort on your part," Sebelius told state health workers.

She also announced $350 million in grants to help states prepare, money to be used partly to brace hospitals for a surge of demand from the truly sick and the well-but-worried.

"We want to make sure we are not promoting panic but we are promoting vigilance and preparation," Obama told the gathering.

State officials welcomed the funds but had more practical questions for the feds, starting with what they learned from the chaos when swine flu first burst on the scene last spring and schools around the country closed because of sick students.

Since then, the virus has infected an estimated 1 million Americans and still is spreading, remarkable considering influenza usually can't tolerate summer's heat and humidity.

"What I need from all of you is an idea of when it is best to close, when it is necessary to close and when it's not," said Belinda Pustka, superintendent of Texas' Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City Independent School District.

"Closing school is a last resort not a first resort," Duncan stressed, but he said schools need to plan how they'll keep students learning if they do have to close for extended periods.

Pustka's schools posted assignments online. But Sue Todey of Wisconsin's Department of Public Education said that between rural geography and poverty, many students don't have the necessary Internet access and she's exploring using public television or old-fashioned sending home of paper assignments.

An even bigger problem: When schools close and working parents need to stay home - or any worker gets sick - too often, they don't get paid, said Paul Jarris of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. So they come to work, spreading infection.

"How are we going to assist people who don't have benefits?" he asked.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said she was working with the Labor Department to address that question, and she urged employers to allow telecommuting and make other provisions should swine flu hit their workplaces this fall.

Swine flu outbreaks in the fall are all but certain given its continued spread here - 50 outbreaks in children's summer camps so far - and abroad, with major problems in parts of the Southern Hemisphere.

What doctors can't predict is how bad it will be during the U.S. flu season, but Obama's team of heavy-hitters spent Thursday warning against complacency.

Even if swine flu proves no more deadly than regular winter flu, that kills 36,000 Americans a year - and with swine flu, teenagers and young adults are being disproportionately hit, said Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And both types could very well spread at the same time this fall.

"If it doesn't happen, we'll be fortunate," Sebelius added.

___

On the Net:

Fed flu info: http://www.flu.gov

And if you are wearing a mask so your research. Most masks that are readily available will do nothing to prevent the spread of Swine Flu.

While such masks block the relatively large, virus-carrying droplets sneezed out by infected people, the viruses themselves are much smaller and could easily pass through. Specialty masks, designated N-95 or N-99, are better filters but still not perfect. -National Geographic Online