Thai Cabinet Warned Flu Cases To Hit 50,000 Per Week

[george]

Thai cabinet warned flu cases to hit 50,000 per week

Pandemic A(H1N1) flood expected in August

By John Le Fevre

BANGKOK (thaivisa.com): -- The chairman of the Public Health Ministry’s advisory committee on strategy for public health and medicine has urged the government to prepare for a flood of pandemic A(H1N1) patients starting in July.

The warning came as the Cabinet received a briefing that the number of patients with the pandemic A(H1N1) virus will more than double from 20,000 cases per week to 50,000 per week as the virus continues to move unabated through the community.

The ministry today also issued the first of its planned weekly pandemic A(H1N1) morbidity and mortality reports showing that the number of deaths had leapt to 44, with the total number of confirmed cases now at 6,776.

Professor Prasert Thongcharoen, a leading virologist, said intensive care units, respirators, and more trained health professionals will be needed to cope with the influx, with the virus spreading unchecked, especially in urban areas.

He said the elderly and those with underlying diseases should immediately receive seasonal flu vaccinations and warned of increasing numbers of patients in rural areas over the next two to four months as well.

According to Prasert, hospitals will soon be crowded by people with severe pandemic A(H1N1) symptoms that could lead to death seeking medical treatment.

"During the past three months we learnt that some patients infected with the new flu virus had died because they had gone to see a doctor too late and also suffered from underlying diseases," he said.

Dr Somchai Chakrabhand, director-general of the Disease Control Department, said 1.2 million tablets of the antiviral drug oseltamivir, marketed under the name Tamiflu by Roche, had been sent to rural hospitals nationwide in bid to reverse the surge in patients with severe symptoms.

Department spokesman Dr Supamit said patients with mild symptoms should stay home for seven weeks and wear a face mask, while those who have a high fever and find it difficult to breathe for more than two days should report to hospitals immediately.

-- thaivisa.com 2009-07-22

[LaoPo]

Thai cabinet warned flu cases to hit 50,000 per week

Pandemic A(H1N1) flood expected in August

Dr Somchai Chakrabhand, director-general of the Disease Control Department, said 1.2 million tablets of the antiviral drug oseltamivir, marketed under the name Tamiflu by Roche, had been sent to rural hospitals nationwide in bid to reverse the surge in patients with severe symptoms.

....Earlier this week the government spoke of 2 million doses (not tablets) which were ordered to be delivered in November...?

What to think of 1.2 million "tablets" ?

LaoPo

Edited July 22, 2009 by LaoPo

[Mai Krap]

Seven Weeks? Funny how everybody seems concerned now that the Swine Flu is here and Off The Rails.

[karlski]

Seven Weeks? Funny how everybody seems concerned now that the Swine Flu is here and Off The Rails.

yeah last week and week before, everyone was "oh the mask selling conspiracy" and "it's nothing".

[peacefulwarrior]

The only one who is profiting by this scare and fear monger game is the Pharma Mafia... come on see the numbers

7667 infections

to

44 deaths

(and mostly 'underlying diseases' and already weakened people die?)

So now the hospitals, helped by the media are advertising their shots at like 800 Baht?

It is nowhere REALLY ! proven that the existing 'symptom suppressing' and not 'curing' medication of Tamiflu and the sorts is effective! The people taking it actually develop flu like symptoms!!!

The vaccination is PROVEN - to weaken the immune system (especially in youngsters, who then do NOT develop a working immune system), due to it's toxic components and metals like aluminum (which is hardly debates as a MAJOR contributor to Parkinson & Alzheimer syndromes), mercury and so forth.

Guys we need to look into this! I think the vaccination is the real killer knocking peoples system down low and then the real virus is 'released', eh found I mean, of course... Isn't it strange that those new killer virus strains are mostly coming out of some laboratory or other (military associated organization) ??? Anyone remember the Anthrax scam years ago?

Make up your minds!

GoodLuck

&

GodSpeed!

P.S. dprogram . net/2009/07/05/video-jane-burgermeister-interview-on-swine-flu-depopulation

P.P.S. and isn't it funny that the mind programmers out there are fiddling with our brains since MONTHs always reminding and enforcing the picture of the coming PAN(dem)IC ? LMAO! problem, reaction, solution - par excellance !

Edited July 22, 2009 by peacefulwarrior

[londonthai]

it's not end of the world - some people will get mildly sick, a few can die. To those at risk antiviral drugs will be given and shortly a vaccine will be made in large quantities.

similar statistics of ill and dead are for the UK - with much less panic.

the greater danger (for thailand and the UK) is winter time - still a lot of time

[Joe1241]

The Dengue Fever is far worse than the Swine Flu and is not yet even reported by the Media. Scaremongering at it's finest.

[z21rhd]

Department spokesman Dr Supamit said patients with mild symptoms should stay home for seven weeks and wear a face mask -

Is this a Joke or just a Typo ?

Edited July 22, 2009 by z21rhd

[sunny747]

The Dengue Fever is far worse than the Swine Flu and is not yet even reported by the Media. Scaremongering at it's finest.

what's makes you think Dengue is far worse? if you are not bitten by certain mosquito do you have any chance of getting the fever? timely medication will save you from dengue these days.

[LivinLOS]

The only one who is profiting by this scare and fear monger game is the Pharma Mafia... come on see the numbers

7667 infections

to

44 deaths

(and mostly 'underlying diseases' and already weakened people die?)

You numbers are way under the far under real world 'confirmed' cases..

Swine flu currently is not a big worry.. Its what it can mutate into or mix with bird flu (60 - 80% mortality rate) and then become.. Thats the scary one.

[Highway311]

What I do with children? I send them to School or not?

[Chunkton]

I recently had flu like symptoms, took a herbal remedy and it went away, probably would have anyway. Don't know if it was Swine Flu or not, but have had dengue before and that is far far worse.

Smells like a pharmaceutical con job to sell vaccine and make money. Doesn't get better than selling to governments in bulk to calm their panicked populations.

[stevenl]

Swine flu currently is not a big worry.. Its what it can mutate into or mix with bird flu (60 - 80% mortality rate) and then become.. Thats the scary one.

That is what they have been telling year after year.

I'm not afraid of this flu, and we'll see what happens with mutations.

[skettios]

The only one who is profiting by this scare and fear monger game is the Pharma Mafia... come on see the numbers

7667 infections

to

44 deaths

(and mostly 'underlying diseases' and already weakened people die?)

So now the hospitals, helped by the media are advertising their shots at like 800 Baht?

It is nowhere REALLY ! proven that the existing 'symptom suppressing' and not 'curing' medication of Tamiflu and the sorts is effective! The people taking it actually develop flu like symptoms!!!

The vaccination is PROVEN - to weaken the immune system (especially in youngsters, who then do NOT develop a working immune system), due to it's toxic components and metals like aluminum (which is hardly debates as a MAJOR contributor to Parkinson & Alzheimer syndromes), mercury and so forth.

Guys we need to look into this! I think the vaccination is the real killer knocking peoples system down low and then the real virus is 'released', eh found I mean, of course... Isn't it strange that those new killer virus strains are mostly coming out of some laboratory or other (military associated organization) ??? Anyone remember the Anthrax scam years ago?

Make up your minds!

GoodLuck

&

GodSpeed!

P.S. dprogram . net/2009/07/05/video-jane-burgermeister-interview-on-swine-flu-depopulation

P.P.S. and isn't it funny that the mind programmers out there are fiddling with our brains since MONTHs always reminding and enforcing the picture of the coming PAN(dem)IC ? LMAO! problem, reaction, solution - par excellance !

Aluminum is a problem? But that's what my tinfoil hat is made out of!

Anthrax scam is unrelated. This is more like SARS.

We can pretend all we want that this is some government/illuminati conspiracy. The only problem is that as a school teacher, I've seen an uncanny amount of sick kids recently. I've seen high fevers and coughs like you wouldn't believe. This is way different than any kind of seasonal malady I've ever seen before. Unfortunately it's real. Now the only thing we can do is take adequate precautions against infections and hope these sick kids are just sick, and don't end up dead.

[barry]

I HAD A LITTLE BIRD

HER NAME WAS ENZA

I OPENED THE WINDOW

AND IN-FLEW-ENZA

[gunnyd]

50000 cases a week?? Where did they pull that number out of?

40617 cases suspected/confirmed 263 deaths in the US 0.6% fatality rate and I suspect many of the fatalities would have died soon anyways.

Fear mongering at its worse. The fatality rate is 0.57% in LOS. Still no panic in the streets of the US. Nobodies running around in masks. And you will be hard pressed to find it mentioned on the news.

[jfchandler]

A thimble full of common sense and real world experience in an ocean of conspiracy theories and herbal cures.

Wear a mask in busy/enclosed/crowded places including the BTS/MRT. Wash your hands frequently with an alcohol based disinfectant. Avoid people who are coughing and sneezing. And try to lead a reasonably healthy life so your immune system is in order. That's about the best that can be done for now.

Aluminum is a problem? But that's what my tinfoil hat is made out of!

Anthrax scam is unrelated. This is more like SARS.

We can pretend all we want that this is some government/illuminati conspiracy. The only problem is that as a school teacher, I've seen an uncanny amount of sick kids recently. I've seen high fevers and coughs like you wouldn't believe. This is way different than any kind of seasonal malady I've ever seen before. Unfortunately it's real. Now the only thing we can do is take adequate precautions against infections and hope these sick kids are just sick, and don't end up dead.

[animatic]

The Dengue Fever is far worse than the Swine Flu and is not yet even reported by the Media. Scaremongering at it's finest.

what's makes you think Dengue is far worse? if you are not bitten by certain mosquito do you have any chance of getting the fever? timely medication will save you from dengue these days.

Oh, what meds would that be???

I had Dengue in March/April and the only meds they recommend are

Paracitemol and Tylenol with codein. And lots of water.

I have had the flu over the last 50 years 5-6 times, including an earlier Swine flu.

I can tell you for sure Dengue is MUCH worse than any flu I ever had.

I just didn't get nasal congestion from it.

[cmiuc]

Thailand is really wanting to hit the "Undeveloped category" train very fast...

Soon, I don't know what will be left of this 'what was once thought of as a "nice place to visit"' country...

that will sure send the tourist in... like they need more publicity like this.

I'm in China now, and NO one wants or will go to Thailand to visit... they are terrified of all the things that are going on...

[thaibkk]

in the civillized world, government is ordering 2 vaccins per person...

thailand with 60 million people is ordering ... 1 tablet per 50 people

guess you need a week of tables at least 1 per day... so it is in fact 1 tablet per 250 or 500 people

welcome to (your) LOS

better not get sick here

specially every time my children go to hospital, they come home with antibiotic... from running nose to bump or scratch....

[mikehuahin]

In other countries the take patients with flu Symptom in quarantine and in Thailand the hospital send them back home to their families with some medicine. So the flu can spreat. like this happen with my trainee in office. This is thailand.

[BlackJack]

http://www.prisonplanet.com/mandatory-swin...-this-fall.htmlswine flew is 35 years old

During the great Swine Flu scare of 1976 ~ 46 million Americans took the vaccine and 4000 ended up seeking damages which amounted to 3.5 Billion dollars. Vaccination victims faced adverse neurological diseases, paralysis and death. Mike Wallace nailed the Center for Disease Control official in a 60 Minutes interview that was only shown once and is eerily similar to the current Swine Flu scare.

swineflu60minutes

[Methuselah]

The figure of 50,000 per week sounds pretty alarming.If you extrapolate this figure over a year,when hopefully the virus will have faded away,then that amounts to 2.5 million affected persons.About 4% of the Thai population.

My guess is that as the infection rate accelerates through the community,then 50,000 new infections per week would be a highly conservative projection.One could only speculate on the numbers,but if only 20% of the population were infected,that would amount to 250,000 per week.

All very depressing!

[thaibeachlovers]

Seven Weeks? Funny how everybody seems concerned now that the Swine Flu is here and Off The Rails.

yeah last week and week before, everyone was "oh the mask selling conspiracy" and "it's nothing".

The valid point MOST were making is that the sort of masks most commonly being worn DO NOT give protection from the virus.

[liloldspirut]

The Dengue Fever is far worse than the Swine Flu and is not yet even reported by the Media. Scaremongering at it's finest.

Ditto to this. The bird flu is a lot more deadly. Remember Tamaflu does not cure a flu. There are no drugs like Antibiotics for infections, for Viruses. Only your immune system can stop it. Worry about a common cold, it is more prominent.

[hansnl]

Thailand is really wanting to hit the "Undeveloped category" train very fast...

Soon, I don't know what will be left of this 'what was once thought of as a "nice place to visit"' country...

that will sure send the tourist in... like they need more publicity like this.

I'm in China now, and NO one wants or will go to Thailand to visit... they are terrified of all the things that are going on...

And in China all is ok?

Really?

I am in Thailand now, and let me assure you I will definitely NOT go to China.

Now that is a country to be afraid of.

[madmitch]

In other countries the take patients with flu Symptom in quarantine and in Thailand the hospital send them back home to their families with some medicine. So the flu can spreat. like this happen with my trainee in office. This is thailand.

I think you are a bit behind the times.

In many countries they are now only recommending you visit the doctor if you get severe symptoms. There are too many cases. They recommend you stay at home, take over the counter medicines and rest until the symptoms subside , which is generally about seven days, not seven weeks.

[sukeroku]

Wow, this is good news, indeed. They are predicting a relatively insignificant 50,000 cases a week or 2.5 million a year. You'd have to be 20 years to have a 50% chance of catching it. Sound like they think it will be much less prevalent than the usual flu virus and far less deadly. What was all the fuss about?

[animatic]

Wow, this is good news, indeed. They are predicting a relatively insignificant 50,000 cases a week or 2.5 million a year. You'd have to be 20 years to have a 50% chance of catching it. Sound like they think it will be much less prevalent than the usual flu virus and far less deadly. What was all the fuss about?

No I think they are saying it will hit the 50k range during August

If every case spawns two more, that's 150,000 for the week after.

1 subsiding and two accending.

if those two vector on... that adds 100k x2 plus the original 100k

etc etc.

It takes about a week per case, but if they pass it on early in their sickness,

before they realize they are that sick, that compresses the time,

if their care givers get it later in the week that drags the numbers longer.

During the time a primary case is sick others can become infected and pass it on

and ALL will be infected, but at different stages and levels of reporting.

So saying 50,000 begats 50,000 and no more, and your time line to 2.5 million, is not correct.

Edited July 22, 2009 by animatic

[oswego]

The Thais are always 1 tick behind everyone else. Then they make up for it in their voracity. The same fatality rate applies for both the H1N1 as every influenza that hits the world every year. Thousands of people die from Influenza every year. It's just that this one has more publicity.