Thai Cabinet Warned Flu Cases To Hit 50,000 Per Week

[tracer5050]

In the US now for holliday ,on the new here by flu season they say will have a shot that includes swine flu.

No one in masks, I will be back in LOS in 3 weeks dont think i will buy up all the masks I see here.

[DickWong]

Please everyone. When in doubt, just go see the doctor. DO NOT WAIT.

I think this is wrong. They don't have 30 million doses of tamiflu here. People with mild symptoms should not go to the doctor.

The people who have died have either had existing medical conditions such as asthma And/OR they did not seek medical care in time. At least that is how I read the information available to me.

Sorry, I thought that the advise from the Thai government are:

When in doubt, NO NEED to see the doctor.

Lock your self in your room and take some pain-killer.

Don't cause a panic, and don't spread to other people, especially your family member.

This flu is less harmful than other seasonal flu, as shown in the death statistic of less than 0.5%.

Keep washing your hand, or use chemical hand cleaner.

I could be mistaken.

[CHINWA]

Seven Weeks? Funny how everybody seems concerned now that the Swine Flu is here and Off The Rails.

yeah last week and week before, everyone was "oh the mask selling conspiracy" and "it's nothing".

And the mask was and still is a mistake... The WHO never recommended the use of the mask as it is the easiest way for anyone to get infected!!! Leaves no doubt that, or it was a business scam or stupidity of those who suggested the use of it and those who used it. If not, just check out the guys on the streets wearing masks how many times do they scrach their noses and eyes!.

[dabest]

here is what someone who knows has to say lately http://www.livingtreecommunity.com/store2/...erstandings.asp

[webfact]

FLU PANDEMIC

440,000 people said to have had the bug

By Pongphon Sarnsamak

The Nation.

Published on July 23, 2009

The number of people in Thailand who have caught the new flu virus is getting close to half a million, the Public Health Ministry announced yesterday

Dr Kamnuan Ungchusak, spokesperson for the Disease Control Department, said the ministry estimated the "real" number of people who had caught the typeA (H1N1) flu strain in the three months since the outbreak hit the country in early May was about 440,000. This was based on a ratio of about 10 deaths per 100,000 people infected with the new virus.

Thailand has had 44 deaths attributed to the new flu. That meant about 440,000 people had had the virus.

Kamnuan spoke at the first weekly press conference at the ministry yesterday, when it announced there had been 20 more deaths over the past week.The number of cases confirmed by laboratory tests is 6,776.

At present, only 35 patients were in hospital. But seven were in a critical condition.

Previously, Professor Prasert Thongcharoen, a leading virologist and chairman of the ministry's advisory committee on strategy for public health and medicine, had predicted the number of patients would jump because the virus was spreading more easily among people, especially in urban areas. Its spread through rural areas was also seen as rising, but over a period of months, not weeks.

Prof Prasert said most did not have immunity against the new flu virus and the H1N1 pandemic was spreading faster among humans than the seasonal flu virus.

Disease Control Department spokesperson Dr Suppamit Chunsutiwat estimated that between 6 to 30 million people would get the new flu virus with about 600 to 1,200 people likeฌly to die because most people do not have immunity.

To reduce the mortality rate, Kamnuan said the ministry would try to control the spread of the virus by asking people with flulike symptoms to stay at home and avoid public places.

Dr Somchai Chakrabhand, directorgeneral of the Disease Control Department, said his agency had sent 1.2 million antiviral oseltamivir tablets to rural hospitals nationwide in bid to boost the stockpile of essential medication in case of a surge in patients with severe symptoms.

The department had earlier sent one million tablets of oseltamivir to rural hospitals.

Dr Paijit Warachit, deputy permanent secretary of the health ministry, said medical schools nationwide had been asked to boost the number of higherlevel graduates available to treat patients. He said this measure would be effective in four weeks.

Meanwhile, Chulalongkorn University virologist Dr Yong Pooworawan said he has studied the genetic code of the new A(H1N1) flu strain, collected from patients over the past three months. He found there were only slight changes in two proteins on the surface of the virus: hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N). This meant the virus was not mutating yet.

Thailand may use a lot of oseltamivir to treat patients with new flu virus, but he said the lab results showed the virus was not showing resistance to the antiviral drug.

-- The Nation 2009/07/23

[boggzzy]

it's not end of the world - some people will get mildly sick, a few can die. To those at risk antiviral drugs will be given and shortly a vaccine will be made in large quantities.

similar statistics of ill and dead are for the UK - with much less panic.

the greater danger (for thailand and the UK) is winter time - still a lot of time

Do you actually know what pandemic stands for. this happens every 100 years or so. the US Britain & Australia have whole teams od people costing millions every year preparing for the Big one. the last one at the turn of the century hundreds of thousands died world wide and this was when travel was slow only ships and trains. if this does turn into a Full Pandemic millions will die and there wont be enough antivirals to treat every one. this is not something just to fob off in a casual thai way

[leebeeUK]

We can pretend all we want that this is some government/illuminati conspiracy. The only problem is that as a school teacher, I've seen an uncanny amount of sick kids recently. I've seen high fevers and coughs like you wouldn't believe. This is way different than any kind of seasonal malady I've ever seen before. Unfortunately it's real. Now the only thing we can do is take adequate precautions against infections and hope these sick kids are just sick, and don't end up dead.

True. A big problem is getting the Thai teachers and, in turn, the kids to take these 'adequate precautions'! Most in my school seem to think its a joke, and don't even think about protecting themselves to protect others. 'You scared?' I've been asked by more than one grinning teacher, because I now wear a surgical mask in my classrooms of 40+ - yes its in our school too!! I've told them I don't think I'm so likely to get it - this because, despite several flu bugs doing the rounds, yearly, in the UK, I luckily never had more than a sniffle and a headache in maybe 12 years before I came here - but if I do, I don't want to pass it on to someone I know who may get it far worse... they nod and then ask the same smirking question the next day!! - pretty much the same thing as with the [not wearing of] helmets on motorbikes really!!.. 'Enforced' taking of precautions would be the best thing.. ie 'just do it!!' NOT 'here's a mask, up to you'!!! Those who say its all just scare-mongering are missing some facts - that it exists, it spreads quickly and people have died; those posters quoting stats like 'only (so many) have died' clearly haven't lost anyone or had it bad themselves...

Edited July 23, 2009 by leebeeUK

[dabest]

what ever u do please consider not getting any vaccines

they are more deadly than anything surely

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMinIt5Yq2E...feature=related

[dabest]

You want some truth?

Google for "VACCINE DANGER" or "VACCINE WARNING" and search amazon.com - there are dozens of books written by medical professionals about the issue.

Or visit http://www.shirleys-wellness-cafe.com/vaccine-books.htm

Here is the link for the soon-to-be-famous 1979 CBS 60 Minutes episode concerning the 1976 swine flu pandemic in USA and the massive vaccination that followed.

Note that this episode was banned after its first showing on television. You will be shocked by the unmitigated evil exposed in this news program.

It is now being released publicly on the internet for the first time, after 20 years!!!

http://loveforlife.com.au/node/6636

[dabest]

ok one more for today

this link below covers all the bases pretty well to really "get it"

http://www.davidicke.com/content/view/25191

its funny when the truth finally comes out not much to say

this is way bigger than it seems and its all man made

who could be so sick?

is the real question

[dabest]

listen now

Send this to as many people as you can.

[sunsetlover]

Thailand is really wanting to hit the "Undeveloped category" train very fast...

Soon, I don't know what will be left of this 'what was once thought of as a "nice place to visit"' country...

that will sure send the tourist in... like they need more publicity like this.

I'm in China now, and NO one wants or will go to Thailand to visit... they are terrified of all the things that are going on...

And in China all is ok?

Really?

I am in Thailand now, and let me assure you I will definitely NOT go to China.

Now that is a country to be afraid of.

Why? Have you ever been to China?? Go to China with swine flu symptoms and you'll be quarantined in seconds!

And in the unlikely case this turns into a true pandemic, I'd rather be in China, not US or Thailand....China doesn't need to play "politically correct".

[Orac]

ok one more for today

this link below covers all the bases pretty well to really "get it"

http://www.davidicke.com/content/view/25191

its funny when the truth finally comes out not much to say

this is way bigger than it seems and its all man made

who could be so sick?

is the real question

You can't be serious surely quoting David Icke as your source. This is the guy who claimed the world was ruled by reptiles from an alien planet who disguised themselves as all the world leaders - George Bush, Tony Blair, Hilary Clinton and the Queen Mother????

Keep taking the medication

[Sturbuc]

Thai cabinet warned flu cases to hit 50,000 per week

Pandemic A(H1N1) flood expected in August

Dr Somchai Chakrabhand, director-general of the Disease Control Department, said 1.2 million tablets of the antiviral drug oseltamivir, marketed under the name Tamiflu by Roche, had been sent to rural hospitals nationwide in bid to reverse the surge in patients with severe symptoms.

....Earlier this week the government spoke of 2 million doses (not tablets) which were ordered to be delivered in November...?

What to think of 1.2 million "tablets" ?

LaoPo

Well, maybe for small people like me 1 dose = 0,5 Tablets

Edited July 23, 2009 by Sturbuc

[Farma]

1.2 million tablets at 10 per box equals treatment for 120,000 cases.

I purchase 2 boxes (10 capsules 75 mg) outside of Thailand for B 1,300 per box.

[callao]

50000 cases a week?? Where did they pull that number out of?

40617 cases suspected/confirmed 263 deaths in the US 0.6% fatality rate and I suspect many of the fatalities would have died soon anyways.

Fear mongering at its worse. The fatality rate is 0.57% in LOS. Still no panic in the streets of the US. Nobodies running around in masks. And you will be hard pressed to find it mentioned on the news.

they better hope CNN and BBC don't pickup on this story thailand will really see a slowdown sounds ridiculous to me

[hughben]

Scaremongering for profits.

Pharma business is as big as oil, finance and the military Industrial Complex.

In the US some 300 people die of normal flu each week.

Hundreds die each week from TB.

Does anyone know these rates in Thailand?

[diggers]

I Had a confirmed dose of swine flu here in Sydney ,not a big deal,just the flu . I had dengue years ago in Indonesia ,thought I was gonna die for sure .

Thankyou everyone for all helpful info and various perspectives on said flu, but this guy is the only first-hander I've read anything from, and the horses mouth is always well worth a listen.. I want to hear more from this guy.. if its just the flu, which I hope it is, why all the pandemic paranoia? While not wanting to be swept up in Dave-Ike-ism, I'll give the conspirasists an honest listen, as I will the WHO, and right now, I'm only confused....

btw hello all I 'm quite new here and this is an informative and entertaining venue, despite the (also entertaining) big bitching sessions... lol

[Jingthing]

if its just the flu, which I hope it is, why all the pandemic paranoia

It IS a pandemic. That just means how widespread the SPREAD is going to be and that people have no immunity. It has NOTHING to do with the severity of the virus which is current mild with the potential to mutate into something severe. Typically PANDEMICS infect 40 percent or more of the entire human population, much greater than a typical seasonal flu.

[diggers]

if its just the flu, which I hope it is, why all the pandemic paranoia

It IS a pandemic. That just means how widespread the SPREAD is going to be and that people have no immunity. It has NOTHING to do with the severity of the virus which is current mild with the potential to mutate into something severe. Typically PANDEMICS infect 40 percent or more of the entire human population, much greater than a typical seasonal flu.

OK fair comment thanks again soo... I'm guessing here... maybe good idea to take Tamiflu as a preventative? maybe even a current dose of the mild unmutated version of said flu would be the best preventative against probable future ungody mutant variety? or head for the hills and dont come out for a couple of years? Really I'm taking this seriously, just want to do so with a cool head... to trust or distrust developing vaccines maybe the real question... i dont like vaccines at the best of times... havent taken one in eight years and have been round many more smelly countires eg India a few times since then and immune system seems to do fine by itself, with occasional help from naturopathy when the bugs get ungodly...

Edited July 24, 2009 by diggers

[George4]

The Dengue Fever is far worse than the Swine Flu and is not yet even reported by the Media. Scaremongering at it's finest.

what's makes you think Dengue is far worse? if you are not bitten by certain mosquito do you have any chance of getting the fever? timely medication will save you from dengue these days.

I read a report only about 2 months ago when they issued a warning saying the amount of people who had caught DF increased this year.

Have to agree though it's lot easier to catch a flu.

The masks thing won't work either unless you want to walk around with a proper gas mask or a spacesuit on if you come across it your're stumped.

Don't worry about it though as it's all a plot to get you to stay home and post on Thaivisa all day

[diggers]

Don't worry about it though as it's all a plot to get you to stay home and post on Thaivisa all day

LOL I've done my research for now conclusion is you're not far off the mark there... its mostly baloney, similar to same swine flu paranaoia in 1976... OK flu is real, but mutation into killer pandemic is unreal, IMHO.... maybe it was engineered, but I aint taking no vaccine, not even Tamiflu... back to sureality for me

[DickFarang]

The Netherlands (with a population of approximately 16.5 million) ordered, months ago, 34 million doses of the future vaccine.

[JamesMemphis]

Seven Weeks? Funny how everybody seems concerned now that the Swine Flu is here and Off The Rails.

yeah last week and week before, everyone was "oh the mask selling conspiracy" and "it's nothing".

The valid point MOST were making is that the sort of masks most commonly being worn DO NOT give protection from the virus.

Face Mask that are N95 approved (NIOSH) are effective against a virus if worn properly. Most of the mask I do see people wearing here in BKK do not help as far as prevention(flat earloop type). It is nothing more than a paper towel with rubber bands. The one on the street sells for 5 baht, it is a waste of 5 baht in my opinion.

The NIOSH approved N95 mask with a one way valve cost about 50 baht (if you can find one). Attached is a photo of a N95 mask with a one way valve. If you want a mask use this one.

Edited July 25, 2009 by JamesMemphis

[elcent]

Let's get it straight people. When you have caught the flu then the intake of tamiflu etc. shortens the period of illness for one day only. Preventive shots are not as good as one thinks. Many other viruses that are sometime at least as dangerous and all around and we come in contact with them almost daily.

The best prevention is to wash your hands as often as possible, stay away from crowded places.

[LaoPo]

The Dengue Fever is far worse than the Swine Flu and is not yet even reported by the Media. Scaremongering at it's finest.

what's makes you think Dengue is far worse? if you are not bitten by certain mosquito do you have any chance of getting the fever?

timely medication will save you from dengue these days.

..what makes you think so ?

There is NO "timely medication" to save you from Dengue Fever!

Dangerous to claim there is such a medication because there is none yet. Just tests.

LaoPo

[animatic]

Let's get it straight people. When you have caught the flu then the intake of tamiflu etc. shortens the period of illness for one day only. Preventive shots are not as good as one thinks. Many other viruses that are sometime at least as dangerous and all around and we come in contact with them almost daily.

The best prevention is to wash your hands as often as possible, stay away from crowded places.

Tamiflu is for AFTER you catch it

and if it is severe or likely to become so in your health state.

At the present moment there IS NOT A PREVENTATIVE.

Maybe a decent one will arrive this fall, but under tested.

Inoculation with a preventive when possible is essentially

injecting a mostly dead or disabled micro-dose of the virus into your system,

to cause your body to manufacture, or re-configure antibodies that will fight the specific virus

much faster, if it ever enters your system, because it will recognize it, and move on it much faster.

One of the dangers of these vacines when under-tested is to know how much gets the job done

and causes the least side effects... like death, or serious debilitating issues.

So that said, it can be 'good' to get the earliest version of the virus before it gets stronger (if that happens),

because it is similar to an inoculation, but in a more 'natural form'... of course IF you have underlying

medical issues then this is to be avoided at all costs. And each person infected, becomes a carrier

able to infect others in their sphere. Each ill person can create several vectors if unawares of their actual illness.

People who should most avoid it are also those living with the most at risk, not just the most at risk,

because it is so easy to pass it on to those in close proximity.

I was unfortunate emnpugh to be forced into a taxic for 2 hours with a hacking coughing idiot in a

ear loop mask. While those masks are not a barrior against the actual virus getting out.

I credit this inadequate mask for LIMITING the airborn particulates or vapor carrying the virus this

irresponsable pratt was exhaling.

I did NOT get ill, and no doubt the mask helped.

I did sit as far away with the opposite side window open in spite of the heat,

so that his exhales exited without passing me as much, and I refused to let him handle my bags.

nor accepted his change... This is a person who should NEVER have accepted a fare to the airport

for any reason at all, blithly and stupidly irresponsable... and very late arriving,

or I would have found another car.

[AsiaCheese]

The warning came as the Cabinet received a briefing that the number of patients with the pandemic A(H1N1) virus will more than double from 20,000 cases per week to 50,000 per week as the virus continues to move unabated through the community.

The ministry today also issued the first of its planned weekly pandemic A(H1N1) morbidity and mortality reports showing that the number of deaths had leapt to 44, with the total number of confirmed cases now at 6,776.

Is there something wrong with my math, or theirs?? If there are 6,776 confirmed cases currently, were they all infected in roughly 1/3 of a week? Or where do the 20,000 cases/week come from that are to more than double to 50,000??

Edited July 26, 2009 by AsiaCheese

[Thai at Heart]

Seems like the mortality rate is rising a little.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2009/07/28/nat...al_30108483.php

Death toll up 50% to 66 in a week

By Pongphon Sarnsamak

The nation

Published on July 28, 2009

The death toll from type-A (H1N1) influenza rose to 66 yesterday, after the virus claimed 22 more lives during the seven days since the last report.

The Public Health Ministry will issue the official update |at its weekly press conference tomorrow.

The ministry announced last Wednesday that fatalities had hit 44 since the disease broke out in the country in May.

Infections now number 6,776.

Deputy Public Health Minister Manit Nopa-mornbodi said about 30 per cent of the fatalities could be blamed on delayed treatment.

Some victims had wanted to stay home or sought medication at a nearby clinic rather than going to a hospital to undergo treatment, he said. This was why the virus had spread to their lungs so rapidly.

Manit said he had ordered the ministry to investigate drug distribution to hospitals operating under its responsibility across the country.

All hospitals must stock an adequate supply of medicine and distribute antiviral drugs thoroughly.

He also asked the National Health Security Office to invite private hospital and clinics to discuss medical services that follow the ministry's standards.

To date, more than 2.8 million tablets of oseltamivir out of the 6.23 million available have been delivered to hospitals around the country.

The Government Pharmaceutical Organisation will produce 40 million more antiviral tablets to build up inventories.

Alarmed at the |surge in infections and fatalities, the Public Health Ministry has decided to allow private clinics nationwide - and not just hospitals |- to prescribe the oseltamivir directly to patients with flu-like symptoms on a trial basis.

The pilot project has been under way in Ratchaburi for a week, since the province reported the second-highest number of fatalities in the country with seven. Bangkok has the highest number.

The results from this project will be used as a guideline for clinics nationwide.

The ministry's advisory committee on a strategy for public health and medicine, chaired by leading virologist Prasert Thongcharoen, also met with health experts to discuss the |distribution of antiviral drugs |to clinics, which would help patients with flu-like symptoms access the medicine faster.

6% OF CLINICS TO GET DRUG

A health expert, who wanted to be unnamed, said the committee would draw up the ministry's specific criteria for clinics to prescribe the antiviral drug for flu treatment.

The source said those clinics volunteering for the project would be asked to register with the ministry. Physicians at the clinics must be trained by the ministry in antiviral prescription. They will be required to send reports about the amount of antivirals in stock and the amount prescribed.

There is no need for every clinic in the province to store the antiviral drug. Only 6 per cent of all clinics in a province will be required to carry the medicine for type-A (H1N1) flu treatment.

However, there is no regulation to ban clinics from keeping a supply of oseltamivir, the source added.

[Scott]

The goal, it seems, has been to keep people from talking about the flu. The goal should be to reduce the rate of infection and the death rate.