The Stock Market

[midas]

Just a heads up.A large portion of Penny dreadfuls have gone ballistic in the last few weeks, could, maybe, possibly be a sign the market is about to move forward. Seems too simple an analogy however they are the first to make big loss/ gains and those who dont watch them wouldn't see the majority have bottomed and trending back up.

Very Very happy today recovered a large amount in a stock that I had written off WGP. Chased it from 3.8c to 1.3c and it Bounced 35% for now reason, could be leaky ship or pump n dump exit. has no cash. shocking mgmt and and a failed SPP at 2.2c. Must remember never to average down to 1c anymore although, ironically it got me out, also not to choose the smallest market cap on the ASX anymore...

Anyway good to see Midas back on the boards praying for a global meltdown & financial holocaust

Midas Ive always wondered how you think another great depression may effect you and your family's life style?

zorro i think all this gambling has made you mentally unstable and clearly you are

having hallucinations ! Where have i said such things ?

[zorro1]

OH Just the impression I got from around 3000 posts suggesting we are going backwards. Are you suggesting we are out of recession?

Edited July 21, 2010 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Now here is a coincidence. Have just re entered a large holding of PEN uranium (asx) at 3.4c

Everything right with this stock 100% fundamentally and chart looking very very bullish.

There is currently a global resurgence in Uranium stock.

And what do I see?

On the ticker here at TV

This..

Nuclear power plant feasibility study to be finished by year-end

Uranium sector heating up big time

[midas]

OH Just the impression I got from around 3000 posts suggesting we are going backwards. Are you suggesting we are out of recession?

Hmmmmm ..........

If i tell you the National Bureau of Economic Research has said

we have never been out of recession and i say that after reading their analysis

that i share their view.......how do you then equate this with me

" praying for a global meltdown & financial holocaust " ?

[zorro1]

OH Just the impression I got from around 3000 posts suggesting we are going backwards. Are you suggesting we are out of recession?

Hmmmmm ..........

If i tell you the National Bureau of Economic Research has said

we have never been out of recession and i say that after reading their analysis

that i share their view.......how do you then equate this with me

" praying for a global meltdown & financial holocaust " ?

You nearly tricked me cheeky bugger

just a random click and your posting this stuff. mentions great depression a lot. There are plenty more but being a prolific poster one can easily 'forget" what was said...

"I just say its not over until the fat lady sings and even if not you.....someone will get burnt "

"the recent trend in dividends and earnings is amazing similar to the Great Depression trend as well! (At least if one compares operating earnings today with reported earnings back then, since operating earnings did not yet exist).

While anything could happen in future months, the current trajectory of dividends (down 11% from peak) is looking slightly steeper than the Great Depression decline. Since reported earnings have fallen so severely even relative to the Great Depression, and reported earnings are a closer representation of actual cash flow than operating earnings, the downward pressure on dividends seems like it should be much greater than during the Great Depression — unless reported earnings can stage a miraculous recovery. Is there a reason I'm not aware of why this conclusion is wrong? If correct, bonds may look increasingly attractive relative to stocks for income-seeking investors. """

[Abrak]

You nearly tricked me cheeky bugger

just a random click and your posting this stuff. mentions great depression a lot. There are plenty more but being a prolific poster one can easily 'forget" what was said...

"I just say its not over until the fat lady sings and even if not you.....someone will get burnt "

"the recent trend in dividends and earnings is amazing similar to the Great Depression trend as well! (At least if one compares operating earnings today with reported earnings back then, since operating earnings did not yet exist).

While anything could happen in future months, the current trajectory of dividends (down 11% from peak) is looking slightly steeper than the Great Depression decline. Since reported earnings have fallen so severely even relative to the Great Depression, and reported earnings are a closer representation of actual cash flow than operating earnings, the downward pressure on dividends seems like it should be much greater than during the Great Depression — unless reported earnings can stage a miraculous recovery. Is there a reason I'm not aware of why this conclusion is wrong? If correct, bonds may look increasingly attractive relative to stocks for income-seeking investors. """

Zorro,

Presumably things are in quotation marks because you are quoting someone. The numbers look all completely wrong to me but I guess they could be refering to the ASX.

It certainly isnt consistent with US numbers.

Also wouldnt it make sense to compare reported earnings with reported earnings on the basis that reported earnings existed in both cases and in any case operating earnings arent (at least in the US) used by anyone in any case on an aggregated basis because of changes in accounting policies that render them meaningless.

[zorro1]

Hi Abarak,just having a dig at Midas since he is now insinuating that he wasnt predicting a meltdown. the quote is his. He was predicting the next great depression but now says he wasnt?. Anyway either Midas still believes we are going down to the Big D road or we aren't? Im sure he will clarify.

Off to phuket for 5 days ,its a long weekend here Monday by the way

[midas]

Hi Abarak,just having a dig at Midas since he is now insinuating that he wasnt predicting a meltdown. the quote is his. He was predicting the next great depression but now says he wasnt?. Anyway either Midas still believes we are going down to the Big D road or we aren't? Im sure he will clarify.

Off to phuket for 5 days ,its a long weekend here Monday by the way

Some of those quotes were not even my own words but merely extracts from articles

and I could easily go back and quote some your endless ramblings about " green shoots "

and a “ v “ shaped recovery.

But who was right at the end of the day- certainly not you – just listen to

what Ben Bernanke told Congress just last night !

But at the end of the day zorro it comes down to this….the difference between

you and me is that I hate lies, deception and misrepresentation and I guard against

it wheras not only did you fall for it ... you even indulge in it yourself

Edited July 22, 2010 by midas

[badge]

"There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side." - Jesse Livermore

[midas]

"There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side." - Jesse Livermore

Very true !

But in 1940 i think the stockmarket was a little more " ethical "

without so many spivs involved ?

[lannarebirth]

"There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side." - Jesse Livermore

And sometimes no side is the right side.

"What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favoured my play. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is also the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play." - Jesse Livermore

http://the3500.wordp...stock-operator/

[BlackJack]

No, I do not base my "predictions" on "events" - but rather just on technical factors. We did not have the bottom late in the day - as I had envisioned. In other words we should have had the initial down with futures (which we had) and then revisited this bottom about 1-2 hours before the close (which did not happen). Technically we are not strong enough to go above the resistance at approx. DJI 10350 - YET. I expect - we will go down again shortly - before this "significant rally" can occur.

But I distinctly remember you saying you base your method on change in sentiment ?

Surely there would have to be some event or news that would trigger a change in that sentiment

that would then translate into technical factors to give you your ""significant rally" ?

You are making it sound like your squigly lines have a life of their own ?

I mean even Goldman Sucks of all people are starting to sound bearish now ( which really surprised me )

so I am just trying to join the dots on how you go from this subdued environment to enough of a change of sentiment to result not in a rally but a "significant rally" ?

There appears to be a desperate efford to discredit anyone who has a different viewpoint on this thread. Analyze for instance my explanation of put /call ratio - and the lengthy rambling reply by a certain poster. No one even mentions that CBOE has a "S+P 500 Put Writing Index" (Symbol PUT) - or is aware of it. Used correctly with a "certain formula" will tell you a "substantial move" before the actual occurence - AS IF BY MAGIC. No one mentions that Put open interest is substantially higher than Call open Interest AT ALL TIMES. If you are smart enough to create a formula to compare premium - you will also notice that premium increases in the direction of the expected move BEFORE the move - AS IF BY MAGIC. Markets are "controlled" - by using derivatives (created out of "thin air") - learn to read the "controlling mechanism" and you can predict directions accurately - but not necessarily to the exact hour (which I am TRYING to do).

Midas you appear to have a mind of your own - look at what is available and reach your own conclusions - not necessarily according to the opinion of other "would like to be experts".

no they are just bulls in the paddock and stamping out territory but everyone knows my shyt is better than anyones

keep going

i am trying to look at things in a different way and thats what its all about

[BlackJack]

AND . ASX up 4.8% today - gold

woooh whoooo

make that 8.5%

make that a trading halt

Canada buying in big

more tomorrow

[BlackJack]

Blackjack there is strong support at these levels , you can see the strong volume and follow up buying in the bollinger squeeze even though SPL was trending down. Tomorrow will be interesting since SPL just established support last few days after breaking to down side , will watch it. Hard to find negative F/A about it on other forums however T/A seems to play a bigger part in the markets these days or am I imaging that?

Seems that SSL the DUREX makers are looking at a premium buy out

SPL is making the gel for the condoms and has agreements in place

SPL up from 49 cents to 54 cents but PLENTY of upside

[zorro1]

Blackjack there is strong support at these levels , you can see the strong volume and follow up buying in the bollinger squeeze even though SPL was trending down. Tomorrow will be interesting since SPL just established support last few days after breaking to down side , will watch it. Hard to find negative F/A about it on other forums however T/A seems to play a bigger part in the markets these days or am I imaging that?

Seems that SSL the DUREX makers are looking at a premium buy out

SPL is making the gel for the condoms and has agreements in place

SPL up from 49 cents to 54 cents but PLENTY of upside

looking good blackjack. Diff chart to last one now , strong uptrend. I saw an SPL announcement on the ticker today but didnt check it out. I have all bases loaded so cant buy anything. Dow up strong on open lets see if she holds

[zorro1]

"But at the end of the day zorro it comes down to this….the difference between

you and me is that I hate lies, deception and misrepresentation and I guard against

it wheras not only did you fall for it ... you even indulge in it yourself "

Midas

Yes greed is sensational. So you never told a lie, never misrepresented yourself? We all have in one way or another. Deception, well thats a harsh one but has to fit in with the other 2.

So Midas you never told a lie?

[midas]

"But at the end of the day zorro it comes down to this….the difference between

you and me is that I hate lies, deception and misrepresentation and I guard against

it wheras not only did you fall for it ... you even indulge in it yourself "

Midas

Yes greed is sensational. So you never told a lie, never misrepresented yourself? We all have in one way or another. Deception, well thats a harsh one but has to fit in with the other 2.

So Midas you never told a lie?

Truth is the most valuable thing we have, so I try to conserve it.

Mark Twain

[BlackJack]

reading this reminds me of my first confession

come on guys move on

its human nature to cheat steal lie deceive

but my favorite all time sin is vanity

[midas]

reading this reminds me of my first confession

come on guys move on

its human nature to cheat steal lie deceive

but my favorite all time sin is vanity

Yes BlackJack....talking about “its human nature to cheat steal lie deceive”

I remember your post number 3109 in the Financial Crisis Thread almost one year ago on 19th July 2009 :-

BlackJack said

“ The internet is a powerful tool for sharing information

the wrongs in the USA financial system need righting and theres no denying this.

So i suggest you all sign up at the World wide pledge to end financial fraud

http://www.endfinancialfraud.org/index.php

Its a start and with enough people pledging and making others aware it may take some shape.

Remember the Wall Street Banks have bankrupted the future and your family and your kids will be paying off these massive debts in taxes for many many years. ” :clap2:

Well BlackJack i certainly signed up at that time

So do you still hold the same views today as you seemed to hold then ?

Because I notice one of their “ themes “ is :-

“ Today All Markets Are Legalized Casinos Open Only to Elite Banks & Investment Firms “

Edited July 23, 2010 by midas

[midas]

'BlackJack'

reading this reminds me of my first confession

So i suggest you all sign up at the World wide pledge to end financial fraud

http://www.endfinancialfraud.org/index.php

Hey BlackJack

When they say on the End Financial Fraud website - which you encourged everyone to sign -

" The fact that global stock markets can rise at the same time when the world's leading economies are deathly ill is a symptom of this fraud, and this situation will not end well for the world's citizens unless we take action now."

I didn't realise that " take action now " meant to join the fraudsters ?

Edited July 23, 2010 by midas

[Abrak]

" The fact that global stock markets can rise at the same time when the world's leading economies are deathly ill is a symptom of this fraud, and this situation will not end well for the world's citizens unless we take action now."

Whoever said that is a complete idiot because he assumes he can predict stockmarkets by the underlying trend in the economy. If stockmarkets were to fall 'when leading economies are deathly ill', why we would anyone bother working. Why not simply buy puts in an economy that is deathly ill and buy calls in an economy that is recovering.

The very fact that he believes he can define the direction of the stockmarket by the underlying known status of the economy implies he doesnt have the first idea about investment theory. To the extent that people believe an economy is 'deathly ill' would actually imply that the stockmarket would rise almost by definition on the basis that no economy anywhere at anytime has actually died.

As far as advice goes I accept that his theory implies that the Chinese economy which is booming is also a 'rip off' because the 'fact that a stockmarket is falling while an economy is booming is a symptom of fraud'. Personally, I am 90% certain that his theory just inherently shows he is stupid rather than a victim of fraud.

[Parvis]

Not all lies are created equal:

1) There is the lie to intentionally deceive for personal gains

2) There is the lie to intentionally limiting the "truth" because truth may lead to understanding which may reduce one's "edge" or "advantage".

3) There is the lie of ignorance - of just not knowing better

4) There is the lie of "benevolence" - to hide the real truth - because it may be unpalatable

When I read a recent comment in reply to my "p/c ratio" posting - I thought of "2" or "3".

When I hear Midas complaining of deceiving Government statistic - I thought of "4". Would the public really be better off to understand the total truth without "whitewashing statistics"? Would the "momentum" increase to "disaster ahead" or "green shoots" ahead?

When I read your post Abrak I agree - I think of "3" - there is so much ignorance available through commentators, television channels, misinterpretations etc. - yet "fundamental analysis" still has a large following - probably because of "2" and "3".

Edited July 23, 2010 by Parvis

[lannarebirth]

Not all lies are created equal:

1) There is the lie to intentionally deceive for personal gains

2) There is the lie to intentionally limiting the "truth" because truth may lead to understanding which may reduce one's "edge" or "advantage".

3) There is the lie of ignorance - of just not knowing better

4) There is the lie of "benevolence" - to hide the real truth - because it may be unpalatable

When I read a recent comment in reply to my "p/c ratio" posting - I thought of "2" or "3".

When I hear Midas complaining of deceiving Government statistic - I thought of "4". Would the public really be better off to understand the total truth without "whitewashing statistics"? Would the "momentum" increase to "disaster ahead" or "green shoots" ahead?

When I read your post Abrak I agree - I think of "3" - there is so much ignorance available through commentators, television channels, misinterpretations etc. - yet "fundamental analysis" still has a large following - probably because of "2" and "3".

I remember back in early 2000 I was receiving reports, sent to HNW individuals, from my Swiss bank to get out of tech / internet stocks. It was funny because that same day the US subsidiary of the bank had their analyst come out with "Strong Buy" recommendations for the priciest stocks in those same sectors. Maybe Abrak, who in in fact was an analyst, can tell us if the Chinese Wall in fact exists. I say it's a myth.

[AlexLah]

Ignorance is not wanting to know better is it?

As an example, study some history of Friedman and the Chicago school of economics and the great experiment Chile.

And Parfish Parvis, when is that turn around coming, I am waiting since the 3rd of May......remember I told ya!

Another great turnaround is approaching slowly but surely. Will post a hint tomorrow when my computers are finished crunching the numbers.

[zorro1]

Great post abrak.

Edited July 23, 2010 by zorro1

[AlexLah]

No it is not.

Abrak, where do you get your economic indicators from?

Exactly.....

[Abrak]

No it is not.

Abrak, where do you get your economic indicators from?

Exactly.....

Are you referring to my comment that China is booming. I think I read it in a newspaper somewhere. Something along the lines that the economy grew 11% in Q1. Actually was just making a general point which is that I believe that the two worst performing stock markets in the world this year are Greece and China. I believe that Greece is suffering some sort of financial and economic problems while China is one of the fastest growing economies after Thailand.

I know the Chinese market has gone down because, occasionally some Chinese stocks now appear to pop up in value searches while beforehand they seemed to live exclusively in the world of overpriced crappy rubbish.

[Abrak]

I remember back in early 2000 I was receiving reports, sent to HNW individuals, from my Swiss bank to get out of tech / internet stocks. It was funny because that same day the US subsidiary of the bank had their analyst come out with "Strong Buy" recommendations for the priciest stocks in those same sectors. Maybe Abrak, who in in fact was an analyst, can tell us if the Chinese Wall in fact exists. I say it's a myth.

Well the problem with Chinese Walls is that they are full of chinks. Boom Boom! The investment banking arm actually paid half my salary. I also remember there was introduced a Chinese Wall between the analyst and his market maker why by price sensitive information reports and recommendations had to be relayed to the salesmen ahead of the market makers. The head market makers comment to me is 'if you dont tell me ahead of the sales desk you wont have a job.'

Talking of glossy recommendations ahead of the IB departments IPO, there was one company that was such a crock of shit, it had been defaulting on interest payments for the previous two years, that I only agreed to write the usual glossy - emerging market blue chip, market leader, innovative technology (meaning it doesnt work), slice bread etc - on the condition that I didnt have to put my name on the report.

[Abrak]

I think of "3" - there is so much ignorance available through commentators, television channels, misinterpretations etc. - yet "fundamental analysis" still has a large following - probably because of "2" and "3".

I agree on the TV channel thing. When you go into a western brokers sales and trading room you find that they usually have a bunch of TV channels all tuned to CNBC. I always agree with a comment I read somewhere which is that this is a pretty scary concept. Imagine if you went into a hospital and everyone is avidly watching 'General Hospital' it wouldnt breed a lot of confidence. Although I seem to remember that Dr. House who is one of the world's most brilliant doctors (there is a weekly documentary on him on TV) is an avid fan of the program.

[midas]

" The fact that global stock markets can rise at the same time when the world's leading economies are deathly ill is a symptom of this fraud, and this situation will not end well for the world's citizens unless we take action now."

Whoever said that is a complete idiot because he assumes he can predict stockmarkets by the underlying trend in the economy. If stockmarkets were to fall 'when leading economies are deathly ill', why we would anyone bother working. Why not simply buy puts in an economy that is deathly ill and buy calls in an economy that is recovering.

The very fact that he believes he can define the direction of the stockmarket by the underlying known status of the economy implies he doesnt have the first idea about investment theory. To the extent that people believe an economy is 'deathly ill' would actually imply that the stockmarket would rise almost by definition on the basis that no economy anywhere at anytime has actually died.

As far as advice goes I accept that his theory implies that the Chinese economy which is booming is also a 'rip off' because the 'fact that a stockmarket is falling while an economy is booming is a symptom of fraud'. Personally, I am 90% certain that his theory just inherently shows he is stupid rather than a victim of fraud.

I assume whoever wrote it is a non believer in government statistsics

The Chinese economy might have been booming from building all those ghost cities and

bridges in the middle of nowhere that Hugh Hendry captured on film but

they have not yet worked out how to a earn a

return on those " investments " or who is going to actually use them ?

Edited July 24, 2010 by midas