Pad Warns Govt Of Violence On Coup Anniversary Day

[webfact]

PAD warns Govt of violence on coup anniversary day

The People's Alliance for Democracy Sunday warned that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra would resort to violence to try to bring down the government.

Suriyasai Katasila, a PAD coordinator and the secretarygeneral of the PAD's New Politics Party, said Thaksin was expected to mobilise all of his men, as well as those in uniforms, to try to bring down the government not long after the red-shirt movement starts its rally on Saturday, the third anniversary of the September 19 coup.

Suriyasai said Thaksin was expected to use his network to stage violence outside the rally ground so that the violence could escalate until the government is brought down.

-- The Nation 2009/09/13

[LaoPo]

...isn't that kind of the PAD, to warn the government ?

LaoPo

[Scott]

Maybe they have a taped interview for ASTV?

[Publicus]

The PAD statement sounds credible to me.

Thaksin's needs to try to return sooner rather than later (which might be another several years) and under conditions of absolute control or the clear advantage, which he may or may not get beginning Sept 19. The time is now for Thaksin to roll the dice.

Abhisit at the least needs to remain in Thailand and give a definite pass to the annual UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

[givenall]

The PAD statement sounds credible to me.

Thaksin's needs to try to return sooner rather than later (which might be another several years) and under conditions of absolute control or the clear advantage, which he may or may not get beginning Sept 19. The time is now for Thaksin to roll the dice.

Abhisit at the least needs to remain in Thailand and give a definite pass to the annual UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

Desperate people do anything and anything is possible from the disparate Thaksin, but I think he has to do it all alone since some of his followers have seen the light and want nothing to do with him anymore.

[Thai at Heart]

Wow, what a crystal ball they have.

When is the next coup going to be then, because the way this is all going, odds are going up.

[Publicus]

The PAD statement sounds credible to me.

Thaksin's needs to try to return sooner rather than later (which might be another several years) and under conditions of absolute control or the clear advantage, which he may or may not get beginning Sept 19. The time is now for Thaksin to roll the dice.

Abhisit at the least needs to remain in Thailand and give a definite pass to the annual UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

Desperate people do anything and anything is possible from the disparate Thaksin, but I think he has to do it all alone since some of his followers have seen the light and want nothing to do with him anymore.

Indeed, which is makes his need and longing to return stronger and greater than ever. If his reds are dividing what will he have as his needed base of support next year and after that etc? Thaksin's need to act now is all but critical.

Thaksin's hot air about sitting around waiting for miracle to return him is not the kind of miracle that comes out of the blue. This miracle talk is a smokescreen. Thaksin's miracle is the one he himself from on high will create. After all, he is the miracle maker, is he not?

And Sept 19th has a perfect demented karma to Thaksin.

As I said, this would have to be Thaksin's biggest ever roll of the dice. The maniac who won't go away cannot afford to allow himself to begin to fade as his reds divide or splinter.

It's a perverse carpe diem.

[Boater]

Wow, what a crystal ball they have.

When is the next coup going to be then, because the way this is all going, odds are going up.

another coup will kill thailand off the radar for sure .... bye bye investment and tourists

[webfact]

Wow, what a crystal ball they have.

When is the next coup going to be then, because the way this is all going, odds are going up.

another coup will kill thailand off the radar for sure .... bye bye investment and tourists

I concur

[stumonster]

Thaksin was expected to mobilise all of his men,

the chances of takky leading the charge = zero ( re-incarnated warrior prince that he is )

he will probably try something but I think his ineptitude will stand in the way of actually achieving it

[Jingthing]

Pad, schmad, everyone and their hairdresser knows something is cooking for the 19th.

[animatic]

Also with the reports of LARGE amounts of money coming in,

he maybe stocked up for that one final push.

Can't help but think of the Clock in the Croc's belly ticking inexorably

reminding him he has to move NOW!

Very good point about his dwindling support base.

Plenty that will vote, for him... but how many will FIGHT for him next year.

Plus they have been setting the stage psychologically:

That abortive audio tape, now all but silenced, is one such icon,

those true believers have registered it, if not the rest of us.

The No Deaths on Songkran; will be spun into more militarty lies, don't believe them.

Cousin Chaiyashit has been talking support for a coup. Letting their seedling officers know

they should think to be ready to move.

Of course the propitious odd date with a 9 in it.

Abhsit going to THE UN no less to make the speech Thaksin was prevented from making.

THAT item must REALLY gaul in Dubai.... I can hear teeth gnashing from here.

I wouldn't bet against this one being talked of by Dems for JUST that reason.

It certainly could unbalance him to see pretty PM Abhisit taking his scene.

And give him delusions of redressing the karmic imbalance.

And very possibly the 'divisions' within the red land groups is a red herring to make it seem

that they aren't as together as their background plotting actually is.

I think with the ISA and Abhist in full communications there is no reason he can't do NYC /UN,

He can be back in 20 hours, and Suthep is no light weight at taking control of things.

Quiet before the storm... don't bet against it.

[geriatrickid]

Is PAD planning on using the events to stir up sh*t? Incite strife and then conveniently blame the bogeyman who is not in a position to defend himself from the allegations? Cute. .If PAD wants to help, it should take a vow of non violence and do something useful like helping pick up trash on the streets or planting trees.

[baht&sold]

It's unfortunate the messengers in this case happens to be the Yellow shirts, but it may still be an accurate assessment. The damage from the insanity of Yellow airport closures followed by Red-riots at Songkran will pale in comparison IF Mr Thaksin's Reds are incited to run amok again on the brink of high season.

Some say because there was no 're-coup' at Songkran, we're clear of that now. However, a look at the lay of the land then and now adds up to reason for concern. Afterall, the police and some Thaksin-friendly military factions are likely NOT too pleased with recent events and who better to 'protect and preserve' some ways which are set to change (if the clock isn't changed back....)

REVIEW:

-At Songkran, Abhisit belatedly realised 'friendly' forces weren't on offer, as the police showed little er, 'motivation' in doing the same as they did in Oct (with great zeal) for Mr Thaksin's brother in law's govt. Fortunately Abhisit was able to call in 'friendly' troops from Korat who handled things very professionally (thankfully). Thus likely diffusing an escalation to a re-coup attempt then (and probably just in time).

Also at Songkran, the Police Chief wasn't about to be transferred to an inactive post as he most certainly appears to be now. This opens a chasm as the police rank and file appear to want a continuation of an allegedly Red/Thaksin-friendly chief. Further, his removal may finally allow headway into the Sondhi assisination investigation which 'allegedly' also implicates a few soldiers from Lopburi regiment. One alleged key suspect was an aide to current Puea chief advisor Gen Chetta...

Mr Thaksin also obviously has his cousin and former supreme commander Gen Chaiyasit Shinawatra sabre-rattling, and the long distance lines to classmates and any/all critical loyalty sources will likely be burning as well. Also Defence Minister Prawit (who has had dual loyalty) may not be very pleased his Police Chief brother is in effect getting the sack. As for Mr Newin, always the opportunist but he's yet to show his real plans. Probably riding two horses side-saddle, knowing a share in the 'winners circle' awaits (just depends which horse and how much). Mr Newin 'could' still jump back to Mr Thaksin's horse at the last leg forcing house disolution. Yes, ANYTHING is possible in Thailand politics- for a price (everything except a PTP/Dem coalition;)

NOW:

As it stands right now though, with Thailand starting to emerge from economic crisis and with forward tourism bookings starting to return, along with Mr Thaksin's approx 2 billion USD in assetts on the line (and many other critical 'time' factors) there's unfortunately high potential for a rather messy and wider Songkran 2. Now, basically ALL bets are off as are the gloves in a winner takes all showdown (well, that is to say for what's LEFT of Thailand IF scenes of violence and chaos are again splashed all over the world media...)

As for a 'return to DEMOCRACY' this is a RED-herring as are calls for an election (with PT 'winning' a non-survivable minority) and moreover DEMOCRACY has absolutely ZERO to do with what this is REALLY about. 'Colour' this all any way one wants but bottom line, THAILAND will lose if more violence kicks off on the doorstep of high season (and for the foreseeable future).

[animatic]

Is PAD planning on using the events to stir up sh*t? Incite strife and then conveniently blame the bogeyman who is not in a position to defend himself from the allegations? Cute. .If PAD wants to help, it should take a vow of non violence and do something useful like helping pick up trash on the streets or planting trees.

I doubt it, where's the benefit to PAD?

Just more charges and farther from what ever they want these days. Which is no longer clear.

Blues, well they are the invisible whipping boy in red circles for anything that goes wrong.

Reds screw the pooch; it was Blues in disguise... it's growing old that saw.

Secret army or government agents....

Well the government looks better if these Reds DON'T go postal.

or if they do, it is brought under control swiftly and quietly.

This goes for the army too, quiet is more profitable, less risky.

So then comes Thaksin having ringers in the ranks of the

otherwise ISA quieted Red crowd, setting up some pretense,

like at Prems house; pretend a trigger happy guard shoots a red,

and hope the crowd goes ballistic.

Thaksin is 'only a gainer' if a a BIG dust up comes off...

IF it is big enough, and IF his side CAN ASSERT CONTROL during the confusion.

Some very, very big IF's. It will take blood, lots of it,

and some iconic happening to galvanize the street people.

And the good luck of not having his long planted army junior leaders

completely monitored and sidelined by Anupong's counter coup teams.

And don't doubt Gen A. has had these kind of guys rode up to point for some time now.

Remember Thaksin's big mentor for Telecoms and big business WAS a coup winning General.

I bet he imagines that he has learned at the master s knee...

Once more into the breach dear reds.

Edited September 13, 2009 by animatic

[givenall]

Wow, what a crystal ball they have.

When is the next coup going to be then, because the way this is all going, odds are going up.

another coup will kill thailand off the radar for sure .... bye bye investment and tourists

I concur

I don’t really think a coup id necessary. A strong response to the Sep 19 regardless of it being peaceful or not will quite all Thaksin again, but it would probably will not be the last as long as he has any money left.

My advice to the Government is to declare security situation and charge the RED leaders for the cost. And likewise do the same think if Yellow wants to protest. Money is the only way to stop this nonsense

[ThNiner]

Is PAD planning on using the events to stir up sh*t? Incite strife and then conveniently blame the bogeyman who is not in a position to defend himself from the allegations? Cute. .If PAD wants to help, it should take a vow of non violence and do something useful like helping pick up trash on the streets or planting trees.

I doubt it, where's the benefit to PAD? ....

Khun Animatic, I think Geriatrickid just wants to throw any piece of feces he can find at the PAD, with the hope that somehow one of them will stick. I don't think, in the eye of any sane person, the PAD or anyone besides Thaksin himself can make Thaksin look any less credibile and respectable . An as you said, Thaksin would be the only big gainer of the big mess here. He tried really hard during Songkran to make it happen and failed. So this time, as many fear, it could be even worse if Abhisit is not ready.

Edited September 13, 2009 by ThNiner

[ThNiner]

I wonder why the court hasn't locked up Jatuporn, Veera, Nattawut already. They have been out on bails with the condition of not inciting public violence. It seems like right now they can do whatever they want with impunity. Hmmmm.

[animatic]

I suspect they don't want to turn the reddened Three Muscatels into 3 martyrs for the cause,

until they so hang themselves out to dry, no one be the hardest core fools will come to their defense.

So they let them dig their own cell blocks, or build their own petard hoists etc.

petard [pi-tahrd] –noun

1. an explosive device formerly used in warfare to blow in a door or gate, form a breach in a wall, etc.

2. a kind of firecracker.

3. (initial capital letter) Also called Flying Dustbin.

a British spigot mortar of World War II that fired a 40-pound (18 kg) finned bomb,

designed to destroy pillboxes and other concrete obstacles.

—Idiom

4. hoist by or with one's own petard, hurt, ruined, or destroyed by the very device or plot one had intended for another.

Origin:

1590–1600; < MF, equiv.

to pet(er) to break wind (deriv. of pet < L pēditum a breaking wind, orig. neut. of ptp. of pēdere to break wind) + -ard -ard

Dictionary.com Unabridged

Based on the Random House Dictionary, © Random House, Inc. 2009.

p·tard (pĭ-tärd') n.

1. A small bell-shaped bomb used to breach a gate or wall.

2. A loud firecracker.

[French pétard, from Old French, from peter, to break wind,

from pet, a breaking of wind, from Latin pēditum, from neuter past participle of pēdere, to break wind; see pezd- in Indo-European roots.]

Word History: The French used pétard, "a loud discharge of intestinal gas," for a kind of infernal engine for blasting through the gates of a city.

"To be hoist by one's own petard," a now proverbial phrase apparently originating with Shakespeare's Hamlet (around 1604) not long after the word entered English (around 1598),

means "

to blow oneself up with one's own bomb, be undone by one's own devices."

The French noun pet, "fart," developed regularly from the Latin noun pēditum, from the Indo-European root *pezd-, "fart."

Edited September 13, 2009 by animatic

[Publicus]

That last April during the reds Songkran riots Abhisit was able to call in supportive troops from Korat has reliably been a key strategy in supressing would be coups and civil disorder against a government.

In 1981 the ultimate default position against an anti-royalist military mutiny led by a group of young military officers in Bangkok was to call in troops from the solidly loyal garrison of Nakon Rachisima (Korat). First however then PM Prem and the royal family left the capital to the Nakon Rachisima military base to establish their counter-coup headquarters.

As Queen Sirikit read a message over radio supporting Prem's government against the rebels, PM Gen Prem led a column of troops from the Nakon Rachisima garrison to Bangkok to take on the rebels who were led by General Sant Chitpatima. At the cost of only a total of two soldiers on both sides wounded, Gen Prem prevented Gen Chitpatima mobilizing an alliance of a significant number of military units in Bangkok. That coup was thus foiled by the poitico-military heavyweight Gen Prem leading loyalist troops from the Nakon Rachisima garrison on which Abhsist also was able to rely in April during the reds Songkran mayhem.

Any time Bangkok troop units might be somewhat divided or the loyalties of some might be in question, the Nakon Rachisima garrison always is in reserve to be called forward to tip the balance.

This discussion is not of much comfort to any of us, but should the ugly need arise we can know this insurance remains in place as always and that Gen Prem retains and has again exercised a lesson well learned when it comes to who outmanouvers whom.

(See: David K. Wyatt, "Thailand: A Short History," Silkworm Books, Chiang Mai, Rev 1998)

Edited September 13, 2009 by Publicus

[ThNiner]

Khun Publicus, I think you must have meant past April.

[Publicus]

Khun Publicus, I think you must have meant past April.

Yes, last April during Songkran, thanks. Correction made by editing (which is why in Journalism we have copy editors who edit/double check a writers piece in every respect.

Edited September 13, 2009 by Publicus

[Thai at Heart]

The PAD statement sounds credible to me.

Thaksin's needs to try to return sooner rather than later (which might be another several years) and under conditions of absolute control or the clear advantage, which he may or may not get beginning Sept 19. The time is now for Thaksin to roll the dice.

Abhisit at the least needs to remain in Thailand and give a definite pass to the annual UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

The way that things turn around here, anyone can point anything at the reds/Thaksin, raise the ante, and then claim that the sky is going to fall on our heads that day.

This gives the army/government the legitimacy to then enforce the ISA and away we go. I will start worrying very much if the ISA is still being enacted on the 5th/6th/7th/8th dam_n anniversary of any such auspicious/precipitous day, and the government of the day are claiming that it is in an effort to protect democracy.

I don't believe that there is any more credibility to this, than saying that they will hold a large protest on Thaksin's mothers aunts birthday. They have already announced that they will march. Hardly an earth shattering prediction to say that they will use ooohhhh, violence. Just watch how the government got their nickers in a twist about fish sauce.

Maybe the reds should say they won't come armed with anything worse than pla ra, durian, stickybuds and won't give the potentially armed to the hilt authorities anything worse than wedgies and nipple tweaks.

Abhisit should not go to the UN simply because he has to be the figurehead that holds it together. The older Dem's can slink off into history if another coup happens. If Abhisit is moved aside because he isn't in the country, the reds go mad and the Dems have to call in the army, god help the medium and long term future of the country.

[Publicus]

Are you actually as dismissive as you seem to be of it "hardly being an earth shattering prediction" that the reds will "ooohhh use violence" Sept 19th?

It is reasonable and probable that Thaksin very well could be deluded that his stars are in alignment for this date and occasion. Thaksin's deranged verson of Karma.

[Thai at Heart]

Are you actually as dismissive as you seem to be of it "hardly being an earth shattering prediction" that the reds will "ooohhh use violence" Sept 19th?

It is reasonable and probable that Thaksin very well could be deluded that his stars are in alignment for this date and occasion. Thaksin's deranged verson of Karma.

Reasonable and probable? It is a certainty if the numbers of reds are sufficient. Did they get a reading from Mystic Meg or something? I don't understand why this is a shock to anyone. They were about to march 2 weeks ago but the ISA put that to bed. Now it is the anniversary, and Abhisit is out of the country. Whether they can muster the numbers is the issue.

If the reds get together in Bangkok it will be a certainty that violence will happen. Be it with or without provocation, yellow, blue involvement, just the sheer proximity of that mass of people with armed authorities means that it will happen. Furthermore, don't you realise the political capital that can be gained or lost from all sides by turning this situation into mayhem.

Abhist must appear strong, the reds must make a point, the army can't back down, the police don't want to get involved. All it will take is someone to crack a big fart and it will go off. I would imagine that the lines of police/army will be there and someone will throw one stone and away it goes.

Now whether it entails something akin to the so called "non-violent" yellows who picked up the odd person and beat the crap out of them, threw the odd grenade in so called self defence, ran over the odd copper whilst protecting their fortress or it entails the "violent" version of the reds over Songkran who burnt buses and caused chaos whilst running from the army supposedly firing blanks in the air, no one knows.

I for one would love them to make a peaceful sit in at a new undiscovered place of protest. Government house, Don Muang, Survanabhumi, it's all so last year.

[Publicus]

The Guns of August in September.

Different place and a different century but too many similarities even if we're looking at the particulars of Thai internalities.

Unfortunately for all back then the Germans had the Shleffen Plan, the equavelent of which here would be the Thaksin Plan.

Either way once again the lights go out all over.

[Publicus]

Also with the reports of LARGE amounts of money coming in,

he maybe stocked up for that one final push.

Can't help but think of the Clock in the Croc's belly ticking inexorably

reminding him he has to move NOW!

Very good point about his dwindling support base.

Plenty that will vote, for him... but how many will FIGHT for him next year.

Plus they have been setting the stage psychologically:

That abortive audio tape, now all but silenced, is one such icon,

those true believers have registered it, if not the rest of us.

The No Deaths on Songkran; will be spun into more militarty lies, don't believe them.

Cousin Chaiyashit has been talking support for a coup. Letting their seedling officers know

they should think to be ready to move.

Of course the propitious odd date with a 9 in it.

Abhsit going to THE UN no less to make the speech Thaksin was prevented from making.

THAT item must REALLY gaul in Dubai.... I can hear teeth gnashing from here.

I wouldn't bet against this one being talked of by Dems for JUST that reason.

It certainly could unbalance him to see pretty PM Abhisit taking his scene.

And give him delusions of redressing the karmic imbalance.

And very possibly the 'divisions' within the red land groups is a red herring to make it seem

that they aren't as together as their background plotting actually is.

I think with the ISA and Abhist in full communications there is no reason he can't do NYC /UN,

He can be back in 20 hours, and Suthep is no light weight at taking control of things.

Quiet before the storm... don't bet against it.

I'd say this contextually presents a good action picture of why we need to accept as credible the PAD statement regardless of PAD being the source. It's not as if everyone wasn't expecting exactly the scheme as basically outlined by the PAD whether the group itself had made the statement or no one had made the statement.

Also, yeah, if the dust ever settles from a slugfest every side involved can claim they did the right thing but clearly the side and person that gets the greatest benefit from any conflict, whether a dustup or a full-throated insurrection is 'Mr. Thailand' himself, the never say die Thaksin.

The rhetoric leading up to this Thaksin revenge karma day is the most intense and deliberately calculated I've heard during all of the conflict going back to before Thaksin was deposed. Consequently, these indicators and others are to say the least menacing.

[cougar52]

PAD warns Govt of violence on coup anniversary day

The People's Alliance for Democracy Sunday warned that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra would resort to violence to try to bring down the government.

Suriyasai Katasila, a PAD coordinator and the secretarygeneral of the PAD's New Politics Party, said Thaksin was expected to mobilise all of his men, as well as those in uniforms, to try to bring down the government not long after the red-shirt movement starts its rally on Saturday, the third anniversary of the September 19 coup.

Suriyasai said Thaksin was expected to use his network to stage violence outside the rally ground so that the violence could escalate until the government is brought down.

-- The Nation 2009/09/13

Looks as if this is from the PAD play book; remember the PAD are the teachers of today unrest

[LaoPo]

The Guns of August in September.

Different place and a different century but too many similarities even if we're looking at the particulars of Thai internalities.

Unfortunately for all back then the Germans had the Shleffen Plan, the equavelent of which here would be the Thaksin Plan.

Either way once again the lights go out all over.

I suppose you mean the Schlieffen-Plan, so called after it's creator, Count Alfred von Schlieffen or, in good German: Generalfeldmarschall Alfred Graf von Schlieffen.

I must say you have quite an imagination, comparing the Schlieffen-Plan, created over a period between 1892 and 1905 and implemented in a much softer version in 1914 when WWI* started, with a "Thaksin-plan" in 2009, if there is any such plan.

Pure speculation and remarkable indeed and I wonder where you find/found any evidence for such a Thaksin-Plan, intending to avoid fighting a two fronts war ?

Where and who are the fronts? ...the present government and the PAD....? And which one is he intending to fight first ?

Steven Spielberg couldn't even have dreamed about it but maybe he is secretly working on his last Indian Jones movie with Thaksin starring as Indiana ?

On a more serious note: how on earth can you compare WWI, when the Schlieffen-Plan was implemented, with the present situation in Thailand...?

How on earth can you possibly compare a plan in such a horrible war with 70 million (!) military and 15 million killed people, with the political situation in Thailand ?

Were is the present France and Russia in that era but now situated in Thailand ?

Beyond me and really, the absurd theories on this forum never stop amazing me.

LaoPo

[Publicus]

The Guns of August in September.

Different place and a different century but too many similarities even if we're looking at the particulars of Thai internalities.

Unfortunately for all back then the Germans had the Shleffen Plan, the equavelent of which here would be the Thaksin Plan.

Either way once again the lights go out all over.

I suppose you mean the Schlieffen-Plan, so called after it's creator, Count Alfred von Schlieffen or, in good German: Generalfeldmarschall Alfred Graf von Schlieffen.

I must say you have quite an imagination, comparing the Schlieffen-Plan, created over a period between 1892 and 1905 and implemented in a much softer version in 1914 when WWI* started, with a "Thaksin-plan" in 2009, if there is any such plan.

Pure speculation and remarkable indeed and I wonder where you find/found any evidence for such a Thaksin-Plan, intending to avoid fighting a two fronts war ?

Where and who are the fronts? ...the present government and the PAD....? And which one is he intending to fight first ?

Steven Spielberg couldn't even have dreamed about it but maybe he is secretly working on his last Indian Jones movie with Thaksin starring as Indiana ?

On a more serious note: how on earth can you compare WWI, when the Schlieffen-Plan was implemented, with the present situation in Thailand...?

How on earth can you possibly compare a plan in such a horrible war with 70 million (!) military and 15 million killed people, with the political situation in Thailand ?

Were is the present France and Russia in that era but now situated in Thailand ?

Beyond me and really, the absurd theories on this forum never stop amazing me.

LaoPo

MAN OVERBOARD!!!

FYI the reference is not literal so here's a lifejacket. Grab hold of the lifeline so we can pull you back on deck. I'd also be interested to find out whether you actually fell overboard or threw yourself over the side.

Rather, the post has to do with the previous post that presented a possible, if not likely, Sept 19 scenario in which all sides in Thailand are mindlessly arranged either in alliances or in opposition, recklessly at the brink, at which point some single crackling event can loose the dogs of a terrible conflict which produces disastrous results on a scale perhaps unforseen.

It's quite a leap and the work of a hyperactive imagination to try to apply the specific details of the Great European War, to the point of naming countries, to my general and broad allusion to a similar potentially mad situation in the Thailand of the present.

Still, your overdone post can elucidate on the complexities of the present situation in Thailand that my post references so thanks.