Typhoon Ketsana: Thailand On Full Alert For Flash Floods

[Soutpeel]

I give up ThaiVisa armchair forum experts......if it makes u happy yeah your right Thailand has a Typhoon season and gets battered every year by multiple typhoons passing through causing massive destruction and closing the ports and airports. (or was that the PAD)

Case closed

Think we are exaggerating somewhat arent we ??....who said anything about muliple typhoons, places getting battered every year causing massive destruction and closing ports and airports, dont believe i mentioned any of that....

I belive I said the monsoon moves south and typhoons can and do end up in the gulf of Thailand and there is an offical season attached to this which runs from around 1 st nov to end Jan and FYI there have certainly been more than "1 or 2" coming through in the last 20 years...so much much for your professed expertise in this subject....Wikipedia or google is your friend..

Case closed

[bkkjames]

I give up ThaiVisa armchair forum experts......if it makes u happy yeah your right Thailand has a Typhoon season and gets battered every year by multiple typhoons passing through causing massive destruction and closing the ports and airports. (or was that the PAD)

Case closed

Think we are exaggerating somewhat arent we ??....who said anything about muliple typhoons, places getting battered every year causing massive destruction and closing ports and airports, dont believe i mentioned any of that....

I belive I said the monsoon moves south and typhoons can and do end up in the gulf of Thailand and there is an offical season attached to this which runs from around 1 st nov to end Jan and FYI there have certainly been more than "1 or 2" coming through in the last 20 years...so much much for your professed expertise in this subject....Wikipedia or google is your friend..

Case closed

Well not quite accurate but not far off...

Five cyclone disasters in Thailand due to

strong winds and surges have occurred since the

mid 20th century among which the first 3 were

reported by Vongvisessomjai (1994 . These were

(i) in 1952 when typhoon Vae attacked the Upper

Gulf; (ii) in 1962 when typhoon Harriet caused

disaster at Laem Talumpuk of Nakorn Si

Thammarat province due to its devastating winds

and surges causing 800 deads; (iii) in 1970 when

cyclone Ruth attacked Ko Samui and coastline of

Surat Thani and Chumphon; (iv) new data in 1989

when typhoon Gay caused disaster at Patiew and

Tha Sae of Chumphon province due to strong winds

and surges, with 580 deads, mostly fishermen,

620 boats sunk, 40,000 houses destroyed causing

about 11 billion baht damage; and (v) new data in

1997, when typhoon Linda attacked Thupsake of

Prachuap Khiri Khan province resulting in 30

deads, 102 missing and more than 400,000 rai of

agricultural land destroyed. This paper presents

the characteristics of these cyclones.

For the full study... http://www.rdoapp.psu.ac.th/html/sjst/jour...-1216-15-32.pdf

[tomallison]

Nice weather today. Did anyone bring the picnic basket!

Ditto here, Mae Sot area, bright and dry.

[Soutpeel]

I give up ThaiVisa armchair forum experts......if it makes u happy yeah your right Thailand has a Typhoon season and gets battered every year by multiple typhoons passing through causing massive destruction and closing the ports and airports. (or was that the PAD)

Case closed

Think we are exaggerating somewhat arent we ??....who said anything about muliple typhoons, places getting battered every year causing massive destruction and closing ports and airports, dont believe i mentioned any of that....

I belive I said the monsoon moves south and typhoons can and do end up in the gulf of Thailand and there is an offical season attached to this which runs from around 1 st nov to end Jan and FYI there have certainly been more than "1 or 2" coming through in the last 20 years...so much much for your professed expertise in this subject....Wikipedia or google is your friend..

Case closed

Well not quite accurate but not far off...

Five cyclone disasters in Thailand due to

strong winds and surges have occurred since the

mid 20th century among which the first 3 were

reported by Vongvisessomjai (1994 . These were

(i) in 1952 when typhoon Vae attacked the Upper

Gulf; (ii) in 1962 when typhoon Harriet caused

disaster at Laem Talumpuk of Nakorn Si

Thammarat province due to its devastating winds

and surges causing 800 deads; (iii) in 1970 when

cyclone Ruth attacked Ko Samui and coastline of

Surat Thani and Chumphon; (iv) new data in 1989

when typhoon Gay caused disaster at Patiew and

Tha Sae of Chumphon province due to strong winds

and surges, with 580 deads, mostly fishermen,

620 boats sunk, 40,000 houses destroyed causing

about 11 billion baht damage; and (v) new data in

1997, when typhoon Linda attacked Thupsake of

Prachuap Khiri Khan province resulting in 30

deads, 102 missing and more than 400,000 rai of

agricultural land destroyed. This paper presents

the characteristics of these cyclones.

For the full study... http://www.rdoapp.psu.ac.th/html/sjst/jour...-1216-15-32.pdf

I am waiting with baited breath for "namoo" to tell me a Cyclone and Typhoon are not the same animal...

[namoo]

Oh dear obviously wasting my time with you Soutpeel its obviously going way over your head

Heres a couple of simplified pictures for you Soutpeel about Cyclones/Typhoons.

The first one is the 2008 Typhoon season:

2008 Typhoon summary

The second one is a very simple and basic world map that shows you where they develop and in which direction they track:

Simplified Typhoon/cyclone worldmap

The third one is the indian ocean 2009 cyclone summary

2009 Indian Ocean Cyclone Summary

----

Forgive me I could not locate any data for the tracking of YOUR Thailand Typhoon Season from previous years. However if we look at the above data - we can clearly see the areas from the simplified graphic that show the possible development areas that could effect Thailand.

Then if we look a the Cyclone summary and the 2008 typhoon chart we can clearly see that the effect of Typhoons and indeed indian ocean cyclones is minimal on Thailand. Hence it is with some certainty that we can state that Thailand does not have a yearly Typhoon season.

The definition of season while we are on that point with regard to weather phenomena is High Incidence - which with regard to Thailand and cyclonic weather does not apply.

I hope the above information will give u a little better understanding of when they form, where they form and which direction they move and indeed in conclusion why there is no formally recognised Typhoon season for the Kingdom of Thailand.

Thank you and goodnight.

Edited September 30, 2009 by namoo

[Soutpeel]

Well not quite accurate but not far off...

Five cyclone disasters in Thailand due to

strong winds and surges have occurred since the

mid 20th century among which the first 3 were

reported by Vongvisessomjai (1994 . These were

(i) in 1952 when typhoon Vae attacked the Upper

Gulf; (ii) in 1962 when typhoon Harriet caused

disaster at Laem Talumpuk of Nakorn Si

Thammarat province due to its devastating winds

and surges causing 800 deads; (iii) in 1970 when

cyclone Ruth attacked Ko Samui and coastline of

Surat Thani and Chumphon; (iv) new data in 1989

when typhoon Gay caused disaster at Patiew and

Tha Sae of Chumphon province due to strong winds

and surges, with 580 deads, mostly fishermen,

620 boats sunk, 40,000 houses destroyed causing

about 11 billion baht damage; and (v) new data in

1997, when typhoon Linda attacked Thupsake of

Prachuap Khiri Khan province resulting in 30

deads, 102 missing and more than 400,000 rai of

agricultural land destroyed. This paper presents

the characteristics of these cyclones.

For the full study... http://www.rdoapp.psu.ac.th/html/sjst/jour...-1216-15-32.pdf

1998 - TY GAY

1992 - TY Angela & TY Forrest

1994 - TY Thersa

1996 - Severe tropical storm -Ernie (not quite classed as a Typhoon, nearly)

1997 - TY Linda

2004 - TY Muifa

2007 - TY Durian

Since 1998 - A total of 14 Typhoons/Severe tropical storms/tropical storms have hit the Gulf of Thailand, not all have caused damage or even made land

Edited September 30, 2009 by Soutpeel

[bkkjames]

This is exciting, I think we should do a poll on whether to start a new forum on TV.

We could call it "A cyclone is not a Typhoon when its a hurricane. But dont get depressed because you are in the tropics"

[Soutpeel]

This is exciting, I think we should do a poll on whether to start a new forum on TV.

We could call it "A cyclone is not a Typhoon when its a hurricane. But dont get depressed because you are in the tropics"

Excellent idea... .....

Any ways going to bow out this one now....as cant be bothered with the Wikipedia Warrior..

[bina]

sitting here in sunny israel in the midst of the start of winter without needed rains, the start of an other drought which will cause even more economic and ecological havoc , laughing my head off that people are actually having a meteorological arguement thru keyboards.... about too much water. (really, i know that poeple suffer from this, wondering actually about the in laws near their stream and sis n laws' cement shack with leaky tin roof... )

great to laugh before night shift... and family in korat sounded fine on phone yesterday.

bina

israel

[namoo]

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

Anyway the whole reason for putting the armchair experts on TV in their place is Thailand has suffered enough with regard to tourism etc.

Don't want someone reading this debating their holiday destination over christmas and choosing somewhere else other than Thailand because some idiot posts it's Typhoon Season from November to January.

Edited September 30, 2009 by namoo

[marsteele]

Hi heres a pic of our street at 9am this mornig.....................I will try to get out and look at the surrounding area on my bike later.

wow and you are in Australia you must be loving it, breaks the drought.

[Soutpeel]

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

Anyway the whole reason for putting the armchair experts on TV in their place is Thailand has suffered enough with regard to tourism etc.

Don't want someone reading this debating their holiday destination over christmas and choosing somewhere else other than Thailand because some idiot posts it's Typhoon Season from November to January.

Come on namoo, mate, a rather weak retort dont you think..spinning tourism..

[TallForeigner]

Reading these discussions I had a good laugh. And to be honest - some people like Soutpeel talking about the Thai Typhoon season - wow that's a good joke indeed!

Everey well educated person actually knows what is defined as a "season" for certain wheather phenomena. And from a neutral judgement I say that namoo and bkkjames are getting the facts mostly right and can even provide the links to objective observations and data - and not just "armchair rambling". Funny to watch when "armchair meteorologists" try to argue with people who really understand their trade - and it's amusing how desperatly some people want to have the last word and probably want to be seen as the wise and better-knowing guy even if they are simply wrong. I come to contribute to this because meteorology was my field of work and study for many years.

Considering the frequency of which Typhoons or Cyclones are making their ways into the Guld of Thailand or into the Andaman sea to threaten Thailand these storm are being classified as so called "freak wheather phenomena". Freak because they are extraordinary and happen even less frequently than Tornadoes in a mountain country like Switzerland. You don't need to create a season for such rare events.

As for Ketsane it didn't even enter the gulf of Thailand. It is just what is left from another Typhoon or tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific that took the westward route from the Philippines, sometimes brushing Hainan and slamming into Vietnam - this happened already 3 times before this year. Now the established season for the eastern pacific tropical cyclones is defined as being from about May to October/beginning November. However they can happen as early as March or as late as January the following year - but these storms outside the established season are again extraordinary and rare phenomena and therefore you don't define the Typhoon season as lasting from March until Jan the following year.

Considering this you just cannot define as November to January being the "Typhoon season" of Thailand - the attempt sounds so ridiculous!

First of all it's relatively rare that tropical Cyclones happen in this period (especially after second half of November) and its even rarer that these storms make it into the gulf of Thailand or into the Andaman sea near Thailand. Historically these rare events happen in June, August, September, most of them in October, some in November and I'm not sure whether one was ever recorded in December or January. Again, no indicator at all for a "Typhoon season in Thailand from November to January".

[worldfun]

so now we got a bit of rain in bkk. not much yet like that 4 hour stinker a few days back, but is that the naughty ketsana in the typhoon season?

well not to make a joke of the flood prone areas upcountry, but seriously why is it Thai news or us here on TV ALWAYS find it so hard to judge, interpret/understand news like these & how what a phillipine originated typhoon is very unlikely to ever even remotely make landfall in LOS particularly away from the easternmost areas?

anyway one thing I often 'mess up' is how the Thai moonsoon season differ for the andaman (phuket) & thai guld (samui) thus if not mistaken samui (gulf) will have it's moonsoon around now-feb isn't it?

is that where some folks got sidetracked apart from mess up of moonsoon/typhoon 555+

cheers - another 'entertaining' day on TV among the internet forum 'winners' & 'looser'!

[DickFarang]

In Pattaya there are gusts of wind now.

At Pattaya Beach the sea is very wild.

That is all.

[PoorSucker]

This is exciting, I think we should do a poll on whether to start a new forum on TV.

We could call it "A cyclone is not a Typhoon when its a hurricane. But dont get depressed because you are in the tropics"

Most storm get downgraded to Tropical depressions.

[WONDERLUST]

I am now in Manila, and I will really pray that Thailand does not get hit with Ketsana as hard as we had it here. Currently, 250,000 here in Manila displaced and over 100 fatalities. I would not wish this on my worst enemy.

[Scott]

Here in BKK--at least where I am--it has been raining all night. It's been a gentle rain, so there shouldn't be a lot of flooding. But then what should be, and what is are two different things.

[brahmburgers]

Here in northernmost Thailand it's calm as Godzilla's pet hamster in a coma.

[Spee]

We have strong strong winds here on Koh Samui.

Not the normal winds this time of year.

No dust storms.

No drought problems.

Plenty of rice.

Don't worry. Be happy.

This is a serious topic to many on here. Why do we have to have the likes of you drag it down and make light of it?

People in certain areas could lose everything they need to support themselves and all you can do is make a joke of it.

Ditto.

Sustained heavy wind and rain in west Phetch province just now starting to fade. We had the drought earlier in the year when we needed the rain. Now we are getting ready to harvest mangoes in a few weeks, and my girl is worried about the possible storm damage. First, the likelihood of reduced yield due to lack of rain. Now the possibility of little or no yield because of too much rain and wind. Fortunately, a bad mango crop won't make us or break us. But I'm sure the same cannot be said for others less fortunate where crop yields are essential for basic needs.

[stiggy]

No cyclones or typhoons in the gulf !

Um mm just pure coincidence that the storms come around Oct/November and are classified as cyclones.But nope that's not a season just further coincidence.Naturally we are fortunate to not have true Cyclone patterns such as the Phillipines.

But I dont have the fancy Met degree so who am I to argue, after all the met experts always get it right.

I will remember that the next time I am clinging on to walls as the roof gets ripped to pieces, or dodging falling trees.I will also tell my Thai friends in Chumporn that lost everything in Gay and Muftha.

Nope not a cyclone just a spot of rough weather the experts said so.

[george]

Update:

17 provinces warned of heavy rains, flash floods

BANGKOK: -- The Meteorological Department announced Thursday the Ketsana storm has weakened and become a low pressure cell over Ubon Ratchathani.

The low pressure cell together with the low pressure trough over the lower North, the Central, the East and the lower Northeast would unleash heavy rains and possible flash floods in 17 provinces.

The provinces are Kamphangphet, Phicit ,Phetchabun, Nakhon Sawan, Loei, Chaiyaphum, Ubon Ratchathani, Sisaket, Surin, Buri Ram, Nakhon Ratchasima, Prachin Buri, Sa Keao, Chanthaburi ,Trat, Ranong and Phang Nga.

-- The Nation 2009-10-01

[Bagwan]

Where is Michael Fish when you need him?

[marsteele]

Super typhoon brewing in the Phillipines and may hit tomorrow time for all those in Bkk to get back under thier beds.

Edited October 2, 2009 by marsteele

[animatic]

Parma will devastate the Philipines, it is MUCH bigger.

At least they have drianed off the worst of the last one,

and hopefully are better porepared

[Soutpeel]

No cyclones or typhoons in the gulf !

Um mm just pure coincidence that the storms come around Oct/November and are classified as cyclones.But nope that's not a season just further coincidence.Naturally we are fortunate to not have true Cyclone patterns such as the Phillipines.

But I dont have the fancy Met degree so who am I to argue, after all the met experts always get it right.

I will remember that the next time I am clinging on to walls as the roof gets ripped to pieces, or dodging falling trees.I will also tell my Thai friends in Chumporn that lost everything in Gay and Muftha.

Nope not a cyclone just a spot of rough weather the experts said so.

....Well said Stiggy....

[baht&sold]

Philippines braces for second stronger typhoon

Millions of people were battling on Thursday to cope with the aftermath of a typhoon that cut a destructive path through parts of Southeast Asia, killing 400, as an even stronger storm headed towards the Philippines.

Government reports said 101 people had died in Vietnam and 18 were missing after typhoon Ketsana swept through the country late on Tuesday, affecting about 1.4 million people and damaging or submerging more than 350,000 houses.

The typhoon left 11 dead in Cambodia, while the toll in the Philippines, where Ketsana struck last weekend, rose to 277.

The Philippines placed soldiers and civilian emergency teams on the main island of Luzon on alert as an even more powerful super typhoon moved closer. Typhoon Parma was expected to make landfall near northeastern Quirino and Isabela provinces on Luzon by Saturday unless it changed direction.

"It's gathering strength into a category 5 typhoon," chief weather forecaster Nathaniel Cruz told Reuters, adding it could be the one of the strongest typhoons to hit the country since November 2006 when Typhoon Durian left death and destruction in the central Philippines.

"By Saturday afternoon, Parma could be packing centre winds of more than 200 kph and could be weakened once it slams into the Cordillera mountain region in the north."

Gilberto Teodoro, head of the defence and disaster agencies, ordered troops to evacuate coastal and low-lying areas as well as landslide-prone areas in the northern Philippines.

Teodoro has also ordered civilian agencies to stockpile food, water, medicine, fuel and other relief supplies as relief work continued five days after Typhoon Ketsana dumped record-high rain that submerged 80 percent of the capital region and nearby areas.

Initial damage from Ketsana was estimated at $168 million in Vietnam and $101 million for the Philippines, the world's top rice importer, where 2.5 million people were affected by flooding, with 700,000 sheltering in evacuation centres.

MORE TO COME

In Vietnam, river waters in eight coastal and central highland provinces were receding, but the national weather bureau warned of more flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas and high waters in low-lying regions.

Military rescue teams rushed medicine, food and blankets to flood victims and stranded people were airlifted from houses.

Floodwaters submerged many old houses in Hoi An, a city listed as a UNESCO World Heritage site, where transport was restricted to boats.

Thailand's Meteorological Department warned of flash floods in 17 northeastern provinces, where troops where standing by to provide humanitarian assistance. Cambodia sent police and troops on a clean-up operation in the northern province of Kompong Thom worst hit by the typhoon.

Ketsana struck far north of the Mekong Delta rice basket. Farmers in Vietnam, the world's largest robusta coffee producer, struggled to dry beans after heavy rains battered the country's growing area, raising quality concern.

Ketsana damaged 740 hectares of rubber and coffee in Daklak, Vietnam's top coffee-growing province where 180,000 hectares of coffee has been planted, a government report said.

(Writing and additional reporting by Ho Binh Minh in HANOI, additional reporting by Manny Mogato in MANILA and Ek Madra in PHNOM PENH; Editing by Jeremy Laurence)

-- Reuters 2 Oct 2009

[baht&sold]

Beyond cruel the Phils should be smacked by back-to-back typhoons - this one a 'super' typhoon.

Note, there's 2 more storms building and tracking similarly behind Parma

Edit to add Animation link: http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satell...e_animated.html

Edited October 2, 2009 by baht&sold

[007]

What are the flood-prone areas of Bangkok?<snip>

Lower Sukhumvit was fun a few years ago.

Upper Sukhumvit (esp. the stretch from Bangna to Onnut) still is, as soon as there is a bit of heavy rain for thirty minutes, or so. Right after the road and adjoining alleys are covered by water, 10-30 cm deep.

[cloghead]

Note, there's 2 more storms building and tracking similarly behind Parma

Thank goodness you're wrong about the other storms. 'Melor' will move over Saipan then curve northerly/northeasterly away from Japan and 'Olaf' is pretty much history off Baja California. No present threat to the PI except Parma which will brush the NE coast of Luzon but still bring much unwanted rain...

Edited October 2, 2009 by cloghead