Thaksin In Do-or-die Plot

[webfact]

COUNTDOWN TO THE BIG DAY

Thaksin in do-or-die plot

By Thanong Khanthong

Siriporn Chanjindamanee

The Nation

Published on January 18, 2010

Ousted leader cornered by 'evidence' at assets trial

Political tensions are streaming towards a climax on February 10 with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra pushed into a corner by evidence of alleged abuse of power in the recently concluded Bt76-billion asset seizure trial, sources said yesterday.

The verdict to be delivered by the Supreme Court on February 26 will centre on how he kept secret control of his business empire and how it benefited from his government's policies. The ruling will either break his back or relieve him of his financial predicament.

"The highlight of the political battle will take place during that critical juncture on February 10. It's costly to mobilise local forces, so Thaksin has to time it carefully. Besides, the Supreme Court's marking the date of its reading out the verdict to February 26 has hurt his momentum because he had thought the verdict would be handed down in January," a political source said.

"He can win over the case only by toppling the Abhisit government or getting support from a military intervention."

BANKING ON NUMBER 10

A report of Manager Online last month said Thaksin, who attended Class 10 of the military cadet school, is highly superstitious and believes his stars are guiding him to bank his political fortune on the number 10.

Last year Thaksin launched his red shirt rally aimed at ousting the Abhisit government on November 28 (2+8=10) before stretching it out to December 10, which was Constitution Day. The rally, which took place during the celebration of His Majesty the King's birthday, went on in a low-key fashion at Democracy Monument.

Political sources said there were attempts on December 28 to create turmoil in Bangkok but the plan did not work out, amid rumours that the capital could be a target of some bomb attacks while revellers joined the countdown to the New Year.

Unperturbed, Thaksin advanced his political fight into the "magical" year of 2010, his do-or-die year, with stronger determination than ever. On January 10 - the number 10 yet again - Thaksin ordered his red-shirt supporters to travel all the way to Khao Yai Thiang in Nakhon Ratchasima to launch a protest against former prime minister Surayud Chulanont, who is also a member of the Privy Council.

Surayud has been accused of building his resort home on protected forestland in Khao Yai Thiang, a recurring theme that hurts his political stature. This case is being investigated by the Forestry Department, which is also launching a nationwide probe into private encroachment of public land and parks.

But the red shirts' one-day protest at Khao Yai Thiang did not turn violent.

Political sources said the battle is now scheduled for February 10 when Thaksin hopes to launch his last campaign to try to reclaim his money, partially or in full.

Payap, the younger brother of Thaksin, warned last week that stripping Thaksin of his fortune would not be a good way out for the country.

"He did not know that he did anything wrong. But then if you confiscate his assets, his family and relatives would fall deep into trouble," Payap said in defence of his brother.

"Justice must be looked at from the same angle. You have to be able to accept it and I also have to be able to accept it. You just can't draw your own conclusion and your own judgement alone."

Payap said Thaksin's assets of Bt76 billion should be divided into portions. If he were found guilty of any wrongdoings, then he could be fined just for those wrongdoings without losing all of his money, he said.

"Otherwise, the whole country would plunge into complete chaos. The situation is now already very delicate," Payap warned.

A Government House source said it was highly likely that Thaksin would see all his wealth forfeited because of

his alleged political corruption.

"It is very clear that the conversions of the telecom concessions to favour Shin Corp would be evidence strong enough to repossess Thaksin's assets," he said.

Looking back at the stock price movements of Shin Corp and its cellular subsidiary Advanced Info Service (AIS), it is clear that the stock prices moved up significantly whenever good news came out in support of their business operations.

On May 15, 2001, revenue sharing with TOT for the pre-paid mobile phone service of concession holder AIS was reduced from 25 per cent to 20 per cent during the first year of Thaksin's premiership. AIS' stock price surged from Bt326 in January to Bt526 on November 5 of that year.

On September 20, 2002 a concession was amended so that TOT would have to help shoulder the roaming cost for AIS. On September 4, Shin Corp's stock stood at Bt20 following the reduction of par value to Bt1 apiece. In August 2001, the stock was trading at Bt11-Bt12. It bottomed out at Bt9.90 on September 25, 2001.

OFF-SHORE ACCOUNTS

During this time, UBS of Singapore was believed to be trading stocks in offshore accounts for the Shinawatra clan.

"This is the main reason why they could shift money out overseas," the Government House source said.

On February 11 and November 19, 2003, the Thaksin government introduced a telecom excise tax and awarded a licence for Shin Satellite to launch iPStar. In January 2003, Shin Corp shares were trading at Bt10 apiece. They did not move significantly until August 2003 when the stock price hit Bt20. On November 19, 2003, Shin Corp's stock price climbed to Bt26.75 on news that iPStar got a favourable concession. At the end of 2003, Shin Corp closed at Bt39.50.

In 2004, the Thaksin government approved Bt4 billion in Exim Bank soft loans to Burma. Shin Corp peaked at Bt43 in January 2004 before weakening to Bt30.50 in May.

On January 23, 2006, the Shinawatra family sold off its 49-per-cent stake in Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings of Singapore for US$1.88 billion or Bt73 billion, or Bt49.25 a share, for maximum gain.

On that same day, the Thai Telecommunication Act of 2006 became effective, raising the limit on foreign holdings in telecom companies to 49 per cent.

-- The Nation 2010-01-18

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[LaoPo]

...My goodness...another Thaksin thread and ALL exclusively by The Nation. How exciting.

Jeeezzz......that is number 10 or 20 this month; I lost track ?

But...more to come since we're slowly walking to February 26th. 5 1/2 more weeks to go.

LaoPo

[Changian]

Looking back at the stock price movements of Shin Corp and its cellular subsidiary Advanced Info Service (AIS), it is clear that the stock prices moved up significantly whenever good news came out in support of their business operations.

The Nation's team of crack investigative journalists are on the ball yet again

[dom samui]

Thaksin advanced his political fight into the "magical" year of 2010....

Magical Mystery Tour?

[IMA_FARANG]

Interesting.

I'm scheduled to arrive in Bangkok for my winter "vacation" on 26 January and I have leave Bangkok to return to work on a flight leaving on the 8th of February.

Looks like I might just make it, if all goes according to plan.

I guess I'll find out.

[Samuian]

In Kabbala Malkuth has a number value of ten. It is the end of creation - was this choice made by his subconsciousness?

And he himself may have read an awful lot into it!

[Artisi]

Bla bla bla bla bla bla - Thaksin Thaksin Thaksin - don't you get fed-up to the back teeth with it, seems nothing is happening anywhere in the world except "Thaksin fairyland". Luckily most of us can access up to date useful news data elsewhere. For the past year or so I haven't bothered to open The Nation - I can see from the posts put-up here at the baby Nation which seem to be endless every day, the same poorly written useless cr_ap being constantly regurgitated .

[Bagwan]

Seems to me that Payap should seek psychiatric help. He clearly is mentally confused.

[Meridian007]

Payap said Thaksin's assets of Bt76 billion should be divided into portions...

..."Otherwise, the whole country would plunge into complete chaos. The situation is now already very delicate," Payap warned.

I love how even his family can threaten the country, (from within the country), with impunity. Given Thaksin's history for leading the reds to violence, wouldn't his family's threats be considered criminal on their own?

Perhaps the government isn't actually that worried, as the gatherings of the red shirts have been (relatively) peaceful lately. Hopefully this has been because the red shirts have realized that they are being used, and are therefore just going through the motions until Thaksin fails, and they can get a leader who actually wants to help them achieve their goals.

I hope that the judgment isn't postponed again, I can't wait for this to finish!

[animatic]

Of course we get a Nation article, they are a partner of TFV.

But it certainly isn't our only news source.

And discussion goes on regardless of like or dislike of The Nation.

This sums up the state of affairs in a small article,

and it certainly is news of the day and relevant to our lives.

And by the looks of things Thaksin is in grave trouble,

no matter what lil bro Payap yaps on about.

Sadly do or die in a 'Magical Year' is not beyond this mans superstitious whims.

There are many ways to look at numbers, and his numbers don't look as good as he thinks

in a rational analysis, removing pagan superstitions and numerologies.

Edited January 18, 2010 by animatic

[hammered]

The asset seizure case always was the big one and it will ocntinue to drive locla poltics for some time. Everything else is pretty much irrelevant in the gane right now.

The unmentionable one also has an interesting print edition article on the aim of the red shirts.

All meaningful poltical analysis on Thailand will be focusing on this in the short term as there really isnt anything else.

[Publicus]

Payap said Thaksin's assets of Bt76 billion should be divided into portions...

..."Otherwise, the whole country would plunge into complete chaos. The situation is now already very delicate," Payap warned.

I love how even his family can threaten the country, (from within the country), with impunity. Given Thaksin's history for leading the reds to violence, wouldn't his family's threats be considered criminal on their own?

Perhaps the government isn't actually that worried, as the gatherings of the red shirts have been (relatively) peaceful lately. Hopefully this has been because the red shirts have realized that they are being used, and are therefore just going through the motions until Thaksin fails, and they can get a leader who actually wants to help them achieve their goals.

I hope that the judgment isn't postponed again, I can't wait for this to finish!

Payap certainly makes it sound like the whole of the family is involved and will be affected. Sure, there might be a few exceptions, a few 'strays,' but according to Payap this a family affair. 

[geriatrickid]

During this time, UBS of Singapore was believed to be trading stocks in offshore accounts for the Shinawatra clan.

Well either they were or they were not. Speculation like this is pointless.

UBS is the large Swiss financial institution that is synomous with tax evasion, improper banking arrangements and money laundering. Now, of course UBS will argue otherwise however, last August the US IRS won a landmark case against UBS that gave the IRS access to approx. 5,000 accounts that were estimated to hold approx. US$18billion. The initial result? 750 US citizens charged with major tax evasion, and a collection effort in place to collect close to $4billion in taxes and penalties. In the interim, UBS had to accept responsibility for aiding and abetting US clients in tax evasion and pay close to $800million in fines. I find it odd indeed that an honest man would deposit use a Swiss bank when there are local banking facilities that could do the same. e.g. HSBC out of Hong Kong can trade just as effectively as UBS. Doesn't look good, assuming that Mr. Thaksin did indeed use UBS.

[Thailand]

The Nation- speculative non factual journalism at it's very best.

[SM7WGP]

Of course it will be divided in portions many hands wants a peace of the cake

[Publicus]

"The highlight of the political battle will take place during that critical juncture on Feb 10."

Who doubts this statement in the Nation piece above?

Thaksin and the Reds might fall flat on their face trying, on or about that date, but who doubts the attempt will be made and that that date is a likely date?

I don't doubt it at all. 

[mythBuster]

I am always interested in the "sources" of the Nation. We all know that the management and owners of the Nation are not at all clean themselves. the fact that they were targeted by the Corruption authorities made them mad and unbiased. It is a very unprofessional newspaper.

Just like we would like to know who are paying for opinion polls, what the sample is, margin of errors and how they are conducted, the general public would love to know who the sources are.

If we wanted to hear gossip or hearsay we would not reading a newspaper but one of the pulp magazines.

[ballpoint]

Hmmm............"But it certainly isn't OUR only source of news"..........Interesting choice of words Animatic...Another informative slip-up.

And another by you too Ferwert.

[Publicus]

Hmmm............"But it certainly isn't OUR only source of news"..........Interesting choice of words Animatic...Another informative slip-up.

And another by you too Ferwert.

Gotta hand it to him though, 'cause if he's not shameless he's persistent. 

[Mario2008]

Looks like Ferwert is back, again.

[hammered]

I am always interested in the "sources" of the Nation. We all know that the management and owners of the Nation are not at all clean themselves. the fact that they were targeted by the Corruption authorities made them mad and unbiased. It is a very unprofessional newspaper.

Just like we would like to know who are paying for opinion polls, what the sample is, margin of errors and how they are conducted, the general public would love to know who the sources are.

If we wanted to hear gossip or hearsay we would not reading a newspaper but one of the pulp magazines.

Same as all newpapers the world over, add in all other media outlets, blogs etc. Some people kinda overate what a media source is. It is the mouthpiece of the owner to say anything they want. That is why they own it. There is no such thing as balanced journalism or ethics in media.

Best not to get too excited about it all though. Just undertand the nature of media especially in the belief based world we now live (if ever it was different)

So actually everytiome we read any newspaper we are listening to gossip and hearsay plus usually a few pictures. It is just a matter if we want to delude ourselves or not.

I would suggest if you want a newspaper that prints what you want then start or buy one like the red and yellow shirts did and the Nation owners, New York Times owners etc etc

I wouldnt overly rate anything that comes out of an academic source either as they usually have an assumption and then set out to prove it with "research" that makes an ABAC poll look wonderfully reliable

Welcome to the real world.

[Lite Beer]

Looks like Ferwert is back, again.

And gone again.

[hammered]

Maybe Thaksin wont do or die as per the plan and everything will just be stuck as it is now.

[jayjayjayjay]

...My goodness...another Thaksin thread and ALL exclusively by The Nation. How exciting.

Jeeezzz......that is number 10 or 20 this month; I lost track ?

But...more to come since we're slowly walking to February 26th. 5 1/2 more weeks to go.

LaoPo

You would think journalist had greater pride in their jobs than to produce articles like this.........

[animatic]

Hmmm............"But it certainly isn't OUR only source of news"..........Interesting choice of words Animatic...Another informative slip-up.

And another by you too Ferwert.

Gotta hand it to him though, 'cause if he's not shameless he's persistent.

Yes he is persistent... also maybe a bit paranoid I'm afraid...

sorry mate... I call them as I see them.

And no,

I was referring to Thai Visa posters and readers, not TVF staff and "operatives".

We actually IN Thailand have many sources of information beyond 'The Nation' to choose from.

Nothing Freudian nor dupl8icitous either.

This will also explain why he thinks he has caught some Freudian slip on my part.

He thinks I work for TFV creating political messages for the Democrats

or The Nation or something like them i guess, not really too sure what he means...

This is the latest in a few from him. About time I let people know I guess.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Welll buddy boy....All doubt has been removed.

You are an operative of TV

The swiftness with which "Limhoi' was banned last week removed all doubt.

I sent a very small, obscure reply to one of your postings, and then a PM.

I was promptly banned......Gotcha!

Mind you, this idea that THAIVISA opinionating is "operative driven" under the guise of regular ex-pat postings was not my own. I'm not that devious. Someone else drew this to my attention, and all of a sudden things fell into place.

Your blithe disregard to the banning of alternative opinions, your 'apologetics' for banning, even promoting the idea that I broke the rules when you knew dam_n well that never happened, plus other bannings that resulted shortly after I interacted with you, your very consistent stream of ideological postings. Their daily regularity defying notions that is from anyone else but an operative, etc.

I could go on and on, but you get the picture....you asshol_e!

My best guess is that Jingthing and Pat Pong are one and the same. I have suspicions of others.

Just to let you know you can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all others, all of the time.

Get this nick banned as quickly as possible Animatic....I'm watching and waiting.

FERWERT

Well it has gone past friendly with the use of the A word.

I have said repeatedly

that I have no connection with TVF in any form except having met a few mods at Blues Factory

last spring.

I have never done,

nor have ever been offered a Mod job

or any free or paid details or posting chores FOR TVF.

We are not connected except TVF bought me one beer at Blues Factory.

That is the sum total of it.

And given that egregious discussion of moderation issues in open forum, is a banning offence on TVF,

I can NOT go out of my way to publicly defend Ferwert's right to post.

Not my rules, but I won't get a ban for it. Not much I can do.

So there is my rock and metaphorical hard place.

Animatic, not on anybody's payroll but my own, but you CAN buy me a beer.

Edited January 18, 2010 by animatic

[Wolfie]

Let's bring this Topic back ON topic please.

[LomSak27]

I'm getting bored with these Nation informercials on Thaksin. Yes we do get our news from other sources and not suprisingly they don't have them.

[yoshiwara]

What will be worrying Thaksin and his apologists is the that the fast approaching slam-dunk of Feb 10 convicts him with cherries on the top ahead of the other anticipated VIP Event. The pro-Thaksin TV station and threatened public disorder stunts are there to keep him in the public eye in preparation for the fake national reconciliation post-Event. Unfortunately they are running out of time and the open corruption of the Thaksin Regime will be there for all to see. They know this and that is why they are desperately dreaming up forest encroachment demos and the likes to divert the heat. Wriggle away.

[momentumwaves]

Perhaps Payap could be persuaded to change his name to Payup?

Edited January 18, 2010 by momentumwaves

[Wolfie]

I'm getting bored with these Nation informercials on Thaksin. Yes we do get our news from other sources and not suprisingly they don't have them.

Nobody forces you to read them... if your bored of them, just skip over them...

... or better yet, go find some interesting news to post, we have published out News Guidelines here. Providing you follow the guidelines and the news is related to Thailand, it will get pushed to the news section.

Thaivisa is what you guys make it, dont sit there and do nothing except complain and moan that the news isnt interesting to you.

Right - thanks for listening - back to the Topic at hand