UK Pound Collapse 47.99 against the Baht

[VegasVic]

Also I never said that the Baht was not appreciating on its own merits, as a matter of fact in past posts I have stated that the BOT is doing everything reasonable and prudent within their power to make sure that the Baht does not appreciate too much, because if it were left on its own the Baht might very well be at 27 or 28 to the Dollar currently

VegasVic, if you wish to stop your currency appreciating, being reasonable and prudent is not a good start. You would have thought the BoT would have learnt something from 1997.

The BOT is indeed walking a tightrope right now, or to put it another way they are between a rock and a hard place If oil continues to rise the BOT will have even tougher choices to make, and quite honestly I have no idea in which direction they will err on. I hope for all the expats over there (especially the Brits and Europeans) that they err on the side of devaluation, but it is really anyones guess?

[mommysboy]

55? maybe!

UK returns to solid growth of 3-4 % per annum primarily through the recovery of service and financial sectors assisted by manuafacturing. Inward investment spirals as big business gradually returns and along with it confidence in the currency, then the return of interest rates. Govt pays down debt by a mixture of raised taxes, spending cuts and selling off RBS, and LLoyds.

The Thai factor is more difficut to predict.

It's quite realistic and certainly all economies recover sooner or later.

I think 'quite realistic' is going a bit far maybe 'quite imaginative' would be a better phrase.

I mean the last time that UK GDP growth exceeded 4% was 1994.

It is hard to imagine much growth on the back of...

1) higher taxes

2) Lower Government spending

3) higher interest rates

4) an appreciating currency

And 'Government pays down debt' isnt even a policy of any political party as far as I know.

Not at all. Boom and bust does seem a feature in economies. 4% growth could be achieved. I'm not saying it will happen but it's a scenario based more in reality. Also we all got caught out differentiating between GDP (turnover) and profit. Profit means taxes for Govt and we are already seeing the coffers swelling.

As to the debt, I'm not sure how many billons the sale of RBS alone would bring in but I'm guessing that a return to profits and a pound plus price could easily happen within a 3 year time frame. Lloyds is predicted to return to profit this year actually.

The 'imagnation' comes in when we consider how strong the baht will be. It already seems well off the leash. It's unknowable

[thaibeachlovers]

Problems like the cost to the NHS, for starters ( as old people are the largest users of health care, a few thousand elderly people returning to the UK will really put the pressure on an already overstretched public health service service ), housing for seconds ( there's already a shortage of affordable accomodation ). Then there's the things no one really thinks about, like free public travel for over 60's. How much extra would that cost the councils?

What makes you think that their wives/ families will be coming with them? Would UK immigration allow them in if there's no accomodation/ jobs etc to support them? Someone I knew had a problem getting his Phillipino wife in, despite him having a good job, as he didn't have "suitable" housing.

IMO it's more likely that many will be abandoned in LOS.

You dont honestly believe all that you wrote, do you????

All that will happen is any expats will be at the back of a VERY long queue for anything other than a kick in the <deleted>.

All that happens at the NHS is they keep shuffling some people from waiting list to waiting list, and from consultant to consultant, until they either die waiting, "or piss off back to where they came from" in the case of expats. There are leaked reports of whoever wins the election will cut a lot of front-line jobs and operations such as hip replacements etc. Things like concessionary travel will be means tested soon anyway.

Housing??? you're having a laugh aren't you?? The councils have NO legal obligation to house anyone who made themselves "intentionally homeless"....Google the phrase, and you will see if describes almost all of any returning expats to a tee. If, by some miracle a council takes pity on an expat, then the best that expat can hope for is an LDA in some sink estate, full of drug addicts, vandals and assorted ne'erdowells. What a wonderful way to spend your twilight years huh?

Penkoprod

I think it's a possible scenario. I'm putting it out there to see what others think might happen in the event of the exchange rate being so low that some expats can't afford to live in LOS, and what would be the result of UK immigration not allowing visas for their families for whatever reason.

I think you will find that the NHS now has to treat people within a certain period of time.

My hospital had to do weekend lists ( normally only Mon to Fri ) to avoid being heavily penalised.

Incidentally, the NHS would greatly benefit from a massive cull of managers. We had way too many of them trying to justify their positions, and they were of no bl**dy use to anyone as all they did was attend meetings, and whatever edicts they passed just made life more difficult for those of us that actually worked for a living!

As for hip replacements and any sort of forseeable surgery, eg cataracts, I don't think the NHS should be doing those anyway. It should concentrate on life saving surgery and medicine, accidents etc, and people should have to take out insurance for the rest. Things like IVF should never have been done in the NHS, as it's not a life threatening complication.

If you read my post properly, I never say anything about councils having to house returning expats. However, there is a shortage of affordable accomodation, and the prospect of thousands of returning voters being "on the street" will surely raise some concerns in the government.

[Abrak]

Not at all. Boom and bust does seem a feature in economies. 4% growth could be achieved. I'm not saying it will happen but it's a scenario based more in reality. Also we all got caught out differentiating between GDP (turnover) and profit. Profit means taxes for Govt and we are already seeing the coffers swelling.

As to the debt, I'm not sure how many billons the sale of RBS alone would bring in but I'm guessing that a return to profits and a pound plus price could easily happen within a 3 year time frame. Lloyds is predicted to return to profit this year actually.

The 'imagnation' comes in when we consider how strong the baht will be. It already seems well off the leash. It's unknowable

Now come on lets just take the UK economic growth model of the last ten years. It was a debt fueled growth model with asset inflation fueling consumption. It was essentially a model of consumers borrowing from tomorrow to pay for today. And when that collapsed the government decided to borrow from tomorrow to help save the day.

'Profit means taxes we are already seeing the coffers swelling.' What is the budget deficit going to be this year - 8% GDP?

Debt fueled growth is no growth at all and with 30 years since the last C/A surplus and 10 since a fiscal one you better realize it.

And dont get too excited about RBS or Lloyds - add up all their profits over the previous ten years before the crisis and then subtract their two years during the crisis.

Then take the basic fundamentals of the economy

C/A

Fiscal position

Growth

PPP

Balance of Payments

Debt

And consider which one the UK wins verses Thailand.

[chiang mai]

Problems like the cost to the NHS, for starters ( as old people are the largest users of health care, a few thousand elderly people returning to the UK will really put the pressure on an already overstretched public health service service ), housing for seconds ( there's already a shortage of affordable accomodation ). Then there's the things no one really thinks about, like free public travel for over 60's. How much extra would that cost the councils?

What makes you think that their wives/ families will be coming with them? Would UK immigration allow them in if there's no accomodation/ jobs etc to support them? Someone I knew had a problem getting his Phillipino wife in, despite him having a good job, as he didn't have "suitable" housing.

IMO it's more likely that many will be abandoned in LOS.

You dont honestly believe all that you wrote, do you????

All that will happen is any expats will be at the back of a VERY long queue for anything other than a kick in the <deleted>.

All that happens at the NHS is they keep shuffling some people from waiting list to waiting list, and from consultant to consultant, until they either die waiting, "or piss off back to where they came from" in the case of expats. There are leaked reports of whoever wins the election will cut a lot of front-line jobs and operations such as hip replacements etc. Things like concessionary travel will be means tested soon anyway.

Housing??? you're having a laugh aren't you?? The councils have NO legal obligation to house anyone who made themselves "intentionally homeless"....Google the phrase, and you will see if describes almost all of any returning expats to a tee. If, by some miracle a council takes pity on an expat, then the best that expat can hope for is an LDA in some sink estate, full of drug addicts, vandals and assorted ne'erdowells. What a wonderful way to spend your twilight years huh?

Penkoprod

I think it's a possible scenario. I'm putting it out there to see what others think might happen in the event of the exchange rate being so low that some expats can't afford to live in LOS, and what would be the result of UK immigration not allowing visas for their families for whatever reason.

I think you will find that the NHS now has to treat people within a certain period of time.

My hospital had to do weekend lists ( normally only Mon to Fri ) to avoid being heavily penalised.

Incidentally, the NHS would greatly benefit from a massive cull of managers. We had way too many of them trying to justify their positions, and they were of no bl**dy use to anyone as all they did was attend meetings, and whatever edicts they passed just made life more difficult for those of us that actually worked for a living!

As for hip replacements and any sort of forseeable surgery, eg cataracts, I don't think the NHS should be doing those anyway. It should concentrate on life saving surgery and medicine, accidents etc, and people should have to take out insurance for the rest. Things like IVF should never have been done in the NHS, as it's not a life threatening complication.

If you read my post properly, I never say anything about councils having to house returning expats. However, there is a shortage of affordable accomodation, and the prospect of thousands of returning voters being "on the street" will surely raise some concerns in the government.

I've come to the opinion that the UK government cares really very little about its older people, the UK pension is one of the worst in Europe - it certainly cares less about its elderly ex-pat community and the curtailment of NHS benefits after time, ineligibility for pension cost of living increases and general ageist attitude in the work place are all evidence of that. So what if one million British ex-pats suddenly flock to the UK shores, the government is unlikely to be overwhelmed with generosity for its returning non-productive citizens, it'll be a case of Job seekers allowance, pension credits and perhaps some community support, end of story. Will all of that cause governments to reconsider the exchange rates, not a chance. The effect on Immigration policy is also likely to be zip since it now seems that policy is likely headed into the opposite direction and visa's were only ever issued to spouses on the basis that the citizens could support them in the first place. Overall it's a very uncomfortable situation for some people and I can only hope that the economics and the government both change soon, for their sake.

[Bottlerocket]

WooHoo! 1.11 Euro to the Pound. That must really hurt!

[whichschool]

The Euro and the Pound crashing has nothing at all to do with the Baht

Ive read several of your posts and this one proves you havent got a clue what you are talking about.

The EURO hasnt crashed v the baht its about as it was 5 years ago when i was getting paid in it, and it certainly hasnt crashed v the dollar its higher then it was 1 year ago, though it has gone down in the last couple of months ... please look at charts from the last 6 months year, 2 years 5 years and since it came into fruition and then come back and tell me its crashed.

I never said that the Euro has crashed vs. the Baht, in fact if you read a little closer next time you will notice that I went out of my way to say the the crashing Euro has nothing at all to do with the Baht Nor did I say that the Euro had crashed against the Dollar ( you will have to wait a few more months for that), I said that the Euro and Pound are crashing (i.e. in the process of crashing!!!) The Dollar rate was over $2.10/Pound less than two years ago and now it is around $1.48 (give or take) to buy that same Pound, the Euro was $1.60 not all that long ago and now it is around $1.33 (give or take),now that certainly looks like a crashing Euro and Pound to me When will the Euro and Pound have completely crashed? I guess we will not know that until it bottoms out and begins a sustained rise! I will say that there are many more currency experts on both sides of the pond that view the possibility of the Euro/Pound/Dollar getting to par now than there were just a few months ago. Next time you want to say that someone hasn't a clue, please have a friend who understands the English language read the post you are replying to for you, it may very well save you the embarrassment next time

you wrote "Euro and the Pound crashing has nothing at all to do with the Baht" this is quite clearly implying the Euro has crashed against something .... as this topic is using present and historical facts, not the witless predictions of some fat American your statement is clearly wrong.

The Pound is a little below its long term average of approx 1.55-1.6 v the dollar and the Euro is about at its long term average v the dollar, though sterling is well below its long term average against the Euro, if you wish to challenge any of these statement please bring some facts to the table.

Finally another of your statements im happy to disprove with a fact not a webforum lie is the highest the Euro has been against the dollar in the last 12 months is 1.51360, as opposed to the 1.6 you are claiming.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market...welve_month.stm

[VegasVic]

The Euro and the Pound crashing has nothing at all to do with the Baht

Ive read several of your posts and this one proves you havent got a clue what you are talking about.

The EURO hasnt crashed v the baht its about as it was 5 years ago when i was getting paid in it, and it certainly hasnt crashed v the dollar its higher then it was 1 year ago, though it has gone down in the last couple of months ... please look at charts from the last 6 months year, 2 years 5 years and since it came into fruition and then come back and tell me its crashed.

I never said that the Euro has crashed vs. the Baht, in fact if you read a little closer next time you will notice that I went out of my way to say the the crashing Euro has nothing at all to do with the Baht Nor did I say that the Euro had crashed against the Dollar ( you will have to wait a few more months for that), I said that the Euro and Pound are crashing (i.e. in the process of crashing!!!) The Dollar rate was over $2.10/Pound less than two years ago and now it is around $1.48 (give or take) to buy that same Pound, the Euro was $1.60 not all that long ago and now it is around $1.33 (give or take),now that certainly looks like a crashing Euro and Pound to me When will the Euro and Pound have completely crashed? I guess we will not know that until it bottoms out and begins a sustained rise! I will say that there are many more currency experts on both sides of the pond that view the possibility of the Euro/Pound/Dollar getting to par now than there were just a few months ago. Next time you want to say that someone hasn't a clue, please have a friend who understands the English language read the post you are replying to for you, it may very well save you the embarrassment next time

you wrote "Euro and the Pound crashing has nothing at all to do with the Baht" this is quite clearly implying the Euro has crashed against something .... as this topic is using present and historical facts, not the witless predictions of some fat American your statement is clearly wrong.

The Pound is a little below its long term average of approx 1.55-1.6 v the dollar and the Euro is about at its long term average v the dollar, though sterling is well below its long term average against the Euro, if you wish to challenge any of these statement please bring some facts to the table.

Finally another of your statements im happy to disprove with a fact not a webforum lie is the highest the Euro has been against the dollar in the last 12 months is 1.51360, as opposed to the 1.6 you are claiming.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market...welve_month.stm

Calm down ther which, I can see the veins in your forehead about to burst from here in Sedona All anyone has to do is pull up a 2 year chart for the Euro/Dollar or Pound/Dollar and they can clearly see that both of those currencies are in a severe downdraft vs. the Dollar During those same 2 years the Dollar is down vs. the Yen, down big vs. the Aussie$, and is down vs. that most important currency to the farang, the Baht. So this is not a matter of the Dollar being overly strong, rather it is proof of the crumbling of the Pound and the Euro, and with the troubles in the EU just begining I think that you will be seeing a Euro in the 120's vs. the Dollar very soon and a very good possibility that the Euro could be close to par with the Dollar by years end As ugly as the picture is in the EU with Portugaul, Spain, Italy and Ireland waiting in the wings to be the next Greece, The UK's situation is even worse, in fact I am amazed that the Pound hasn't sunk below the Euro yet As far as your crack about me being a fat American goes, if you are talking physically then you are way off base as I am quite fit with only 14% body fat, if however you are refering to high net worth and living a very comfortable (fat) lifestyle, then I guess that you would be correct on that count, but I will add that I worked very hard and saved and invested for many years so that I would be in this "fat" situation in my 50's BTW I am not bashing the Euro or the Pound, the current crisis in the Euro and the Pound is discussed quite openly on both sides of the pond by well respected economists and money managers, it is not so much a matter of how low the Euro and Pound will go as to how fast it will happen, sorry

[Enjibenji]

i'm coming to bangkok in mid may for 3 and a half months during my uni holidays.

just saw the fuc_king minging exchange rate. Hopefully by the end of the election we'll see 53 or something to the £ but i have no expertise in this at all.

anyway - wasn't there an oil source just off the falklands that we were about to take?

edit:

Falklands oil unviable - Reuters UK

ah well.

Edited March 28, 2010 by Enjibenji

[thaibeachlovers]

Problems like the cost to the NHS, for starters ( as old people are the largest users of health care, a few thousand elderly people returning to the UK will really put the pressure on an already overstretched public health service service ), housing for seconds ( there's already a shortage of affordable accomodation ). Then there's the things no one really thinks about, like free public travel for over 60's. How much extra would that cost the councils?

What makes you think that their wives/ families will be coming with them? Would UK immigration allow them in if there's no accomodation/ jobs etc to support them? Someone I knew had a problem getting his Phillipino wife in, despite him having a good job, as he didn't have "suitable" housing.

IMO it's more likely that many will be abandoned in LOS.

You dont honestly believe all that you wrote, do you????

All that will happen is any expats will be at the back of a VERY long queue for anything other than a kick in the <deleted>.

All that happens at the NHS is they keep shuffling some people from waiting list to waiting list, and from consultant to consultant, until they either die waiting, "or piss off back to where they came from" in the case of expats. There are leaked reports of whoever wins the election will cut a lot of front-line jobs and operations such as hip replacements etc. Things like concessionary travel will be means tested soon anyway.

Housing??? you're having a laugh aren't you?? The councils have NO legal obligation to house anyone who made themselves "intentionally homeless"....Google the phrase, and you will see if describes almost all of any returning expats to a tee. If, by some miracle a council takes pity on an expat, then the best that expat can hope for is an LDA in some sink estate, full of drug addicts, vandals and assorted ne'erdowells. What a wonderful way to spend your twilight years huh?

Penkoprod

I think it's a possible scenario. I'm putting it out there to see what others think might happen in the event of the exchange rate being so low that some expats can't afford to live in LOS, and what would be the result of UK immigration not allowing visas for their families for whatever reason.

I think you will find that the NHS now has to treat people within a certain period of time.

My hospital had to do weekend lists ( normally only Mon to Fri ) to avoid being heavily penalised.

Incidentally, the NHS would greatly benefit from a massive cull of managers. We had way too many of them trying to justify their positions, and they were of no bl**dy use to anyone as all they did was attend meetings, and whatever edicts they passed just made life more difficult for those of us that actually worked for a living!

As for hip replacements and any sort of forseeable surgery, eg cataracts, I don't think the NHS should be doing those anyway. It should concentrate on life saving surgery and medicine, accidents etc, and people should have to take out insurance for the rest. Things like IVF should never have been done in the NHS, as it's not a life threatening complication.

If you read my post properly, I never say anything about councils having to house returning expats. However, there is a shortage of affordable accomodation, and the prospect of thousands of returning voters being "on the street" will surely raise some concerns in the government.

I've come to the opinion that the UK government cares really very little about its older people, the UK pension is one of the worst in Europe - it certainly cares less about its elderly ex-pat community and the curtailment of NHS benefits after time, ineligibility for pension cost of living increases and general ageist attitude in the work place are all evidence of that. So what if one million British ex-pats suddenly flock to the UK shores, the government is unlikely to be overwhelmed with generosity for its returning non-productive citizens, it'll be a case of Job seekers allowance, pension credits and perhaps some community support, end of story. Will all of that cause governments to reconsider the exchange rates, not a chance. The effect on Immigration policy is also likely to be zip since it now seems that policy is likely headed into the opposite direction and visa's were only ever issued to spouses on the basis that the citizens could support them in the first place. Overall it's a very uncomfortable situation for some people and I can only hope that the economics and the government both change soon, for their sake.

Good reply.

After 10 years in the UK, I find it hard to know what "new labour" were about anyway. Certainly it wasn't about "reforming" the country, as they did nothing with 2 huge election majorities. It seemed to be mainly about being GW's "poodle" in Iraq, spending the Tory's budget surplus as fast as possible on vanity projects that were doomed to failure, and sucking up to the bankers. The only thing that they seem to have succeeded in doing, is to change the race demographic. eg, it'd be rare to see an English person in an NHS hospital in London now.

There is one thing that you haven't taken into account though. The "baby boomer" generation, of which I'm one, is now becoming one of the largest voting groups. You can be sure that we aren't going to sit by quietly and allow the politicians to continue with their "anti elderly" policies. Things are going to change. Grey power rules, OK!

[RickBradford]

The NuLabour machine hates the indigenous British people, partly because of the people's rich history of independence from and distrust of, authority.

That is why NuLabour:

* floods the country with immigrants and expects the locals to adapt, not the newcomers

* removes all meaningful educational standards

* eliminates history from the Museums to replace it with something 'relevant'

* orders the police to show much more tolerance and protection to ethnic and religious minorities than to the main population.

... on and on and on.

They have gutted the country in a scant 13 years, and the true tragedy is that the British people don't realise that this process cannot be reversed. If they did, they'd all be scrambling to enter LOS, no matter how dire the exchange rate.

[thaibeachlovers]

The NuLabour machine hates the indigenous British people, partly because of the people's rich history of independence from and distrust of, authority.

That is why NuLabour:

* floods the country with immigrants and expects the locals to adapt, not the newcomers

* removes all meaningful educational standards

* eliminates history from the Museums to replace it with something 'relevant'

* orders the police to show much more tolerance and protection to ethnic and religious minorities than to the main population.

... on and on and on.

They have gutted the country in a scant 13 years, and the true tragedy is that the British people don't realise that this process cannot be reversed. If they did, they'd all be scrambling to enter LOS, no matter how dire the exchange rate.

Well said.

I saw it all happen, and many a time I would ask one of the few remaining Brits in the hospital why it was all happening, and they didn't seem to know or care.

Given what has happened, it's not surprising that the people despise politicians and the BNP is doing so well!

Quite frankly, I find it hard to explain why a country that ruled a substantial part of the planet not so long ago has degenerated so far. Perhaps most of the intelligent people got killed off in the trenches 1914-18. I can't think of a better reason, but I'm willing to be told.

[chiang mai]

The NuLabour machine hates the indigenous British people, partly because of the people's rich history of independence from and distrust of, authority.

That is why NuLabour:

* floods the country with immigrants and expects the locals to adapt, not the newcomers

* removes all meaningful educational standards

* eliminates history from the Museums to replace it with something 'relevant'

* orders the police to show much more tolerance and protection to ethnic and religious minorities than to the main population.

... on and on and on.

They have gutted the country in a scant 13 years, and the true tragedy is that the British people don't realise that this process cannot be reversed. If they did, they'd all be scrambling to enter LOS, no matter how dire the exchange rate.

Well said.

I saw it all happen, and many a time I would ask one of the few remaining Brits in the hospital why it was all happening, and they didn't seem to know or care.

Given what has happened, it's not surprising that the people despise politicians and the BNP is doing so well!

Quite frankly, I find it hard to explain why a country that ruled a substantial part of the planet not so long ago has degenerated so far. Perhaps most of the intelligent people got killed off in the trenches 1914-18. I can't think of a better reason, but I'm willing to be told.

We might perhaps look at more recent history, I was convinced at the time that the UK was not ready for Big Bang, the opening of the stock market and all that entails, it turned a gambling population into group of even more greedy people and opened the way for the sell off of the country's assets.

[Khruumaiyai]

The NuLabour machine hates the indigenous British people, partly because of the people's rich history of independence from and distrust of, authority.

That is why NuLabour:

* floods the country with immigrants and expects the locals to adapt, not the newcomers

* removes all meaningful educational standards

* eliminates history from the Museums to replace it with something 'relevant'

* orders the police to show much more tolerance and protection to ethnic and religious minorities than to the main population.

... on and on and on.

They have gutted the country in a scant 13 years, and the true tragedy is that the British people don't realise that this process cannot be reversed. If they did, they'd all be scrambling to enter LOS, no matter how dire the exchange rate.

Are you the BNP's Thailand rep? Nick Griffin was on the BBC last year, and attempted to justify almost the exact arguments mentioned above. There is always the chance you're just winding us all up, however, so maybe I'll just ask one question:

When you say "indigenous British people" - what do you mean? As I understood him, Nick Griffin means white people. Do you?

[DarloKnight]

The NuLabour machine hates the indigenous British people, partly because of the people's rich history of independence from and distrust of, authority.

That is why NuLabour:

* floods the country with immigrants and expects the locals to adapt, not the newcomers

* removes all meaningful educational standards

* eliminates history from the Museums to replace it with something 'relevant'

* orders the police to show much more tolerance and protection to ethnic and religious minorities than to the main population.

... on and on and on.

They have gutted the country in a scant 13 years, and the true tragedy is that the British people don't realise that this process cannot be reversed. If they did, they'd all be scrambling to enter LOS, no matter how dire the exchange rate.

With regards to immigrants I don't think people realise how much we are supporting them, I know of 1 person and his wife and child who are illegal - they are waiting like 300,000 others in the UK, they can not work so the goverment pay all housing costs utility bills and gives them £120/week for food, his case will not be herd by a court before 9 months time (so that he can stay in UK)Would any other country do this support immigrants and feed and house them? Look at the strain and money this is taking up. There is not enough "affordable" housing in the UK I wonder why? When there is loads of houses boarded up. The schools and hospitals have alot more strain on them now due to the influx of foreign nationals. They have soon, like the British caught on to the benefits they can claim, working tax credit, family allowance, family tax credit housing benefit. The Company I work for employ probably over 90% foreign nationals but this is because the British do not want to do the manual jobs, so who do we blame for this. The goverment should stop all benefits for the ones that are fit to work.

With regards to education, I feel let down by my Country, my daughter is 11 and starts secondary school in September, I was told for the first time last week that she is behind did I realise this!! I am now trying to get extra tution for her at my own cost. Schools are only interested in kids that do really well and the others just seem to get left behind.

I dread to think what the UK will be like in 10 years time, what is there going to be for my child?

Unless you are living in the UK I don't think people realise how bad its got here.

Also I watched a program a few weeks ago regarding the winter fuel allowance the goverment pays the over 60's, this is not means tested even if you are a millionaire you are still paid this and I'm sure they pay it to ex pats that live in Spain (I could be wrong). I don't know the total the goverment pays out a year but this is a big strain and it should be means tested and given to the people who need it only. A lot of celeb's are trying to get others to give it to charity and quite a few already do as they say they do not need this money and the goverment really need to look at this now.

[ace]

"It estimates that even if the UK reduces government borrowing by 1% of GDP per year for the next seven years, it will still have a gross debt-to-GDP ratio of 125% by 2017, one of the largest in the OECD. "

Greece's deficit: 113% of GDP in 2009

"The projected record budget deficit is worse than the Treasury forecast, the worst in the developed world and double what it was when Dennis Healey had to go to the IMF."

doesn't look good. Of course UK could beat 3% growth p/a for the next 7 years........maybe exporting high altitude bacon sarnies or flameproof snowballs..

[Naam]

Finally another of your statements im happy to disprove with a fact not a webforum lie is the highest the Euro has been against the dollar in the last 12 months is 1.51360, as opposed to the 1.6 you are claiming.

although i don't agree with Vic's rosecoloured view on USD he was right with 1.60 but that was mid 2008. he didn't say anything about 12 months but used the relative expression "not too long ago". as far as Vic's other forecasts (repeatedly $/€ 1.20 and 1.15 about two years ago) are concerned he was always wrong and using the term "reserve currency" is in my eyes ridiculous

[thaibeachlovers]

The NuLabour machine hates the indigenous British people, partly because of the people's rich history of independence from and distrust of, authority.

That is why NuLabour:

* floods the country with immigrants and expects the locals to adapt, not the newcomers

* removes all meaningful educational standards

* eliminates history from the Museums to replace it with something 'relevant'

* orders the police to show much more tolerance and protection to ethnic and religious minorities than to the main population.

... on and on and on.

They have gutted the country in a scant 13 years, and the true tragedy is that the British people don't realise that this process cannot be reversed. If they did, they'd all be scrambling to enter LOS, no matter how dire the exchange rate.

Are you the BNP's Thailand rep? Nick Griffin was on the BBC last year, and attempted to justify almost the exact arguments mentioned above. There is always the chance you're just winding us all up, however, so maybe I'll just ask one question:

When you say "indigenous British people" - what do you mean? As I understood him, Nick Griffin means white people. Do you?

Well I saw him too, and I disagree. I think he was talking about people of a "similar culture". If a black person was born and grew up in Britain they are just as "British" as a similar white person.

What many British people are saying is that persons of a different culture shouldn't be allowed to dominate the country at the expense of "British" culture. Stories in the papers of schools not being allowed to have nativity plays at Christmas because it "might upset other faiths" do nothing to encourage good relationships with immigrants.

Incidentally, try going to Saudi and building a church in Riyadh. Snowballs in hel_l spring to mind, yet the Saudis were allowed to build a mosque in London.

When people bang on about how Nick Griffin is a racist, it's the old classic propaganda method of distracting others from the real message he's giving. I watched the show, but from what the politicians were saying about him, they must have seen a different show. Of course if you tell everyone often enough that he's racist, eventually most people will believe it. I think Hitler used that tactic!

I think the government would do better to work out why the BNP is doing so well and do something about that, than just bang on the old propaganda drum.

And before you start accusing me of being a BNP member, I'm not a British citizen, but having worked there for 10 years I can say that newlabour seem to be antiwhite, anti british culture, anti white members of former British colonies and I can understand why many are turning to the BNP out of frustration with the ruling clique, who seem hel_l bent on destroying what remains of "old" British culture.

Every year, there is a parade along the Thames, I went many times, but never saw any groups representing British culture. Nope, never saw a group of Morris dancers. Wonder why?

[endure]

What does any of this have anything at all to do with Thailand?

[endure]

Every year, there is a parade along the Thames, I went many times, but never saw any groups representing British culture. Nope, never saw a group of Morris dancers. Wonder why?

Maybe because 'British Culture' is 96% of the population and such vast majorities don't feel the need to flaunt themselves - especially the English who are brought up to believe that self-effacement and modesty is a cardinal virtue?

[endure]

Every year, there is a parade along the Thames, I went many times, but never saw any groups representing British culture. Nope, never saw a group of Morris dancers. Wonder why?

Maybe because 'British Culture' is 96% of the population and such vast majorities don't feel the need to flaunt themselves - especially the English who are brought up to believe that self-effacement and modesty is a cardinal virtue?

[RickBradford]

What does any of this have anything at all to do with Thailand?

It has an effect on the exchange rate.

Because all British politicians are cut from the same cloth, nobody cares who gets into power or has any idea who to vote for, and the result of the forthcoming election may well be a hung parliament. As any economist will tell you, that's bad for business, the stock market, and the currency.

Odd, isn't it -- Thailand's political upheaval doesn't seem to dent the baht, but minor worries about the UK's political direction send shivers through the pound.

[apetley]

What does any of this have anything at all to do with Thailand?

It has an effect on the exchange rate.

Because all British politicians are cut from the same cloth, nobody cares who gets into power or has any idea who to vote for, and the result of the forthcoming election may well be a hung parliament. As any economist will tell you, that's bad for business, the stock market, and the currency.

Odd, isn't it -- Thailand's political upheaval doesn't seem to dent the baht, but minor worries about the UK's political direction send shivers through the pound.

I would guess that worries as to the direction of UK PLC are related to the fact it's the worlds 6th largest economy and as a consequence there are huge investment interests there.

Thailand has a GDP approximately 10% that of the UK despite having a similar population and as such many would consider it a minor player in the state of things.

[jayboy]

Odd, isn't it -- Thailand's political upheaval doesn't seem to dent the baht, but minor worries about the UK's political direction send shivers through the pound.

Not odd at all, and the worries about UK politics are not minor.

The concern in the UK is that in a hung parliament there will be constraints and delays in initiating the massive cuts in expenditure needed to bring public debt down to acceptable levels.All parties have agreed that cuts are needed of an order much greater than those made under Mrs Thatcher.If slightly against my expectations David Cameron achieves a working majority in the House Of Commons I would anticipate the Pound stabilising in the range 1.5-1.6.If there is a hung parliament and dithering on the painful cuts needed there's a real risk of a sterling crisis, that is a decline against most currencies of another 20% - over and above the 25% drop already taken place.

Having said that there's rather too much pessimism about the UK economy at the moment.There are some very real strengths which haven't been dissipated by the recession.But the immediate political outlook is a worry.

[chiang mai]

Odd, isn't it -- Thailand's political upheaval doesn't seem to dent the baht, but minor worries about the UK's political direction send shivers through the pound.

Not odd at all, and the worries about UK politics are not minor.

The concern in the UK is that in a hung parliament there will be constraints and delays in initiating the massive cuts in expenditure needed to bring public debt down to acceptable levels.All parties have agreed that cuts are needed of an order much greater than those made under Mrs Thatcher.If slightly against my expectations David Cameron achieves a working majority in the House Of Commons I would anticipate the Pound stabilising in the range 1.5-1.6.If there is a hung parliament and dithering on the painful cuts needed there's a real risk of a sterling crisis, that is a decline against most currencies of another 20% - over and above the 25% drop already taken place.

Having said that there's rather too much pessimism about the UK economy at the moment.There are some very real strengths which haven't been dissipated by the recession.But the immediate political outlook is a worry.

Interesting that the bookies favour a Labour win currently, also interesting that recent polls results show 35% of respondents favouring a hung Parliament - markets on the other hand are suggesting a substantial fall in GBP if Labour is returned to power, hmm, reconcile those things if you will, my bet is on a Sterling crisis.

[roamer]

Odd, isn't it -- Thailand's political upheaval doesn't seem to dent the baht, but minor worries about the UK's political direction send shivers through the pound.

Not odd at all, and the worries about UK politics are not minor.

The concern in the UK is that in a hung parliament there will be constraints and delays in initiating the massive cuts in expenditure needed to bring public debt down to acceptable levels.All parties have agreed that cuts are needed of an order much greater than those made under Mrs Thatcher.If slightly against my expectations David Cameron achieves a working majority in the House Of Commons I would anticipate the Pound stabilising in the range 1.5-1.6.If there is a hung parliament and dithering on the painful cuts needed there's a real risk of a sterling crisis, that is a decline against most currencies of another 20% - over and above the 25% drop already taken place.

Having said that there's rather too much pessimism about the UK economy at the moment.There are some very real strengths which haven't been dissipated by the recession.But the immediate political outlook is a worry.

Interesting that the bookies favour a Labour win currently, also interesting that recent polls results show 35% of respondents favouring a hung Parliament - markets on the other hand are suggesting a substantial fall in GBP if Labour is returned to power, hmm, reconcile those things if you will, my bet is on a Sterling crisis.

Too many unknowns to factor in. A slim Tory majority could also be unworkable as many of them certainly don't sing from the same hymn sheet.

[mommysboy]

Odd, isn't it -- Thailand's political upheaval doesn't seem to dent the baht, but minor worries about the UK's political direction send shivers through the pound.

Not odd at all, and the worries about UK politics are not minor.

The concern in the UK is that in a hung parliament there will be constraints and delays in initiating the massive cuts in expenditure needed to bring public debt down to acceptable levels.All parties have agreed that cuts are needed of an order much greater than those made under Mrs Thatcher.If slightly against my expectations David Cameron achieves a working majority in the House Of Commons I would anticipate the Pound stabilising in the range 1.5-1.6.If there is a hung parliament and dithering on the painful cuts needed there's a real risk of a sterling crisis, that is a decline against most currencies of another 20% - over and above the 25% drop already taken place.

Having said that there's rather too much pessimism about the UK economy at the moment.There are some very real strengths which haven't been dissipated by the recession.But the immediate political outlook is a worry.

Interesting that the bookies favour a Labour win currently, also interesting that recent polls results show 35% of respondents favouring a hung Parliament - markets on the other hand are suggesting a substantial fall in GBP if Labour is returned to power, hmm, reconcile those things if you will, my bet is on a Sterling crisis.

A hung parliament wouldn't be good at all but to suggest a reduction of 20% plus on the back of that or Labour getting back in to power is a bit far fetched- if GBP drops it will be because of fundamentals. Certainly, failure to reduce debt would provoke a sterling crisis but already we've created 2 big 'ifs' and all of the parties have stated cuts on the way. Very much conjecture.

There is far too much pessimism around the pound as has been pointed out. Abrak gves me the impression that the UK economy will never recover. Has an economy ever not recovered after say 2 years ?- I know Japan had stagnation for ages!

My bet is on a narrow Lab majority. My reasoning: the opposition is crap.

[chiang mai]

Judging by this mornings press reports it does seem that UK government is taking seriously the potential for a run on the Pound and are now making contingency plans to ensure it doesn't happen - it'll be interesting to see what happens to the large number of open short positions over the next week or two, my guess is that they will start to be reduced and that the expected run may not happen, as a result of the behind the scene deals being done currently.

[Naam]

interesting is the fact that much more EUR-shorts than GBP-shorts (both vs. USD) exist.

[Abrak]

There is far too much pessimism around the pound as has been pointed out. Abrak gves me the impression that the UK economy will never recover. Has an economy ever not recovered after say 2 years ?- I know Japan had stagnation for ages!

Perhaps my comments on the UK have been a bit misleading. I mean I dont think UK fundamentals look great but neither does the US or the Euro countries. So I dont have a particular view about whether GBP will depreciate or appreciate against either the Euro or the US$. There is probably too much pessimism about GBP and maybe not enough about the US$.

However, the other side of the coin is that this is a baht:GBP thread. Thailands fundamentals look very strong indeed (even though to an extent they are based on poor fundamental export markets.) Certainly the UK fundamentals look worse than when Thailand devalued (at once stage by 100%) its currency in 1997. Much of my thinking is that part of the key to the recovery of these major economies is a revaluation of currencies of surplus economies who are essentially sucking growth away from them.